van noordwijk fallow_modelingworkshopamsterdam_2012-04-23
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Presentation from the CCAFS Farm-household Modeling workshop - Amsterdam, 23-35 April 2012TRANSCRIPT
Short presentation at CCAFS workshop: Farm-household modelling with a focus on food security, climate change adaptation, risk management and
mitigation: a way forward, 23-25 April 2012
www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/fallow_download
FALLOW Meine van Noordwijk
Desi Suyamto
Rachmat Mulia
Betha Lusiana
Decision making on agricultural
resource use
Government: infrastructure,
land use/access planning
Private sec-tor: input &
output markets
Self-reliant vs market-reliant
livelihood strategies
Agent differen-tiation: gender,
class, age, power, ethnicity
Labour, Land, Water, Soil fer-
tility, Germplasm, Capital
Knowledge and know-how,
Norms & sanctions
Rural development Globalization and desakota integration
Macro-climate change
Sustainability & Sustainagility
Framing human behaviour & decisions: Optimal foraging, opportunistic use
of time; “pico-economics”
Agricultural economics: NPV,
R2L; “micro-economics”
Portfolio theory of risk & rational
diversity: “meso-economics”
Collective action, bounded altruism, social norms, do’s
& don’ts
Linear programming,
multi-goal optimization
Development planning & ‘green growth’: “macro-
economics”
Trusted sources of information: extension &
innovation theory
Agent-based models: wealth,
class, age, gender, power, ethnicity
Payments for eco-system services: “environmental
economics”
Rights-based approaches:
bundles of rights to resource use
System dynamics: positive & negative
feedback loops
Planetary boun-daries, ecological
sustainability: “giga-economics”
Framing human behaviour & decisions: Optimal foraging, opportunistic use
of time; “pico-economics”
Agricultural economics: NPV,
R2L; “micro-economics”
Portfolio theory of risk & rational
diversity: “meso-economics”
Collective action, bounded altruism, social norms, do’s
& don’ts
Linear programming,
multi-goal optimization
Development planning & ‘green growth’: “macro-
economics”
Trusted sources of information: extension &
innovation theory
Agent-based models: wealth,
class, age, gender, power, ethnicity
Payments for eco-system services: environmental
economics”
Rights-based approaches:
bundles of rights to resource use
System dynamics: positive & negative
feedback loops
Planetary boun-daries, ecological
sustainability: “giga-economics”
Grand synthesis is yet to come, but we’re starting to connect at least
some of these theories in our current models….
Portfolio theory of risk & rational
diversity: “meso-economics”
Payments for eco-system services: “environmental
economics”
Trusted sources of information: extension &
innovation theory
Portfolio theory of risk & rational
diversity: “meso-economics”
System dynamics: positive & negative
feedback loops
Agent-based models: wealth,
class, age, gender, power, ethnicity
Agricultural economics: NPV,
R2L; “micro-economics”
Optimal foraging, opportunistic use
of time; “pico-economics”
Dynamic Geo-Informatics
System
Rights-based approaches:
bundles of rights to resource use
The FALLOW model currently contains ele-ments of several theories of decision making:
www.agralin.nl/ojs/index.php/njas/article/view/588/302
Drivers Actors/ agents
Land use/cover changes
Conse-quences & functions
Response/ feedback options
B1. Incentive structure through policy change (tax, subsidy etc)
A2. LU rights (e.g. community forest mngmnt)
A1. Land use policies, spatial development planning
Modified from Van Noordwijk et al., 2011
B2. PES and conditional ES incentives
Biodiversity, Watershed functions, GHG emissions,
Landscape beauty
Livelihoods, provisioning & profitability
Short model description Goal of model development: • Represent continuum of ‘subsistence’ to ‘market integration’, shifting
cultivation to permanently cropped fields, labour + cash constrained decisions in a ‘tropical forest margin’ setting
• Dynamics of soil fertility (~ Trenbath) and (agro)forest resources • Relate dynamic knowledge of landscape agents to dynamic action
(decision making) in ‘adopt & learn’ mode; open to impact analysis of ‘extension’
• Explore spatial dynamics, consequences of land use zoning, restrictions to access
• Tradeoff and scenario analysis of livelihoods & ES (C-stocks, biodiversity, key watershed functions)
• Use in spatial planning and scenario development boundary work Typical research questions addressed: 1) Can we account for historical land use change of a study area
(calibration/validation phase) 2) What can we expect (‘scenarios’) of ‘business as usual’ extrapolation
compared to specific interventions in spatial planning, demographic, economic, K-dynamics, PES-incentive systems
Short model description
≈
maximizing ‘utility’ (profitability)
‘model inside the model’: dynamic knowledge - learning
(external-extension and internal - experience)
• Diagram of model
Lusiana et all., under review
Developments needed to
better deal with this attribute
Attribute Covered
in pre-
vious ana-
lyses?
If ‘yes’, which
indicators were used?
Which indicators
would you like to use
in future to deal with
attribute?
For your model For house-
hold level
models in
general
Economic
performance
Y •Non-food expendi-
ture
• Returns to labour
• Learning styles
•In/out-migration
as outcome
• Empirical GINI
coefficients
• (Attractiveness to)
external investment
• External input
dependency
• Learning sty-
les ~ decision
rules
•Degree of
prioritization
Multiple
discount
rates ~
decision
making
Food self-
sufficiency
Y • Landscape-level
production ~
demand
•Exchange across
landscape border
• Empirical GINI
coefficients
Preferential
treatment of
staple food ~
portfolio
choices
Distribu-
tional
issues,
landless
HH’s
Food security
Y •Income security
•Interannual buffer
• Empirical GINI
coefficients
•Nutritional
diversity
Multiple buffer
concepts ~ ex-
ternal shocks
Risk avoi-
dance in
switch to
markets
Developments needed to better
deal with this attribute
Attribute Covered in
previous
analyses?
If ‘yes’, which
indicators were
used?
Which indicators would
you like to use in future
to deal with attribute?
For your model For house-hold
level models in
general
Climate
variability
y Single random
variate on yields
Partial correlates of
stochastic effects on
multiple crops &
income sources
Link to rela-
ted model for
prepro-
cessing
Portfolio
analysis,
multiple
buffers
Risk
y Multiple model
runs across key
stochastic para-
meters
Substitutibility
across different
buffer types
Partial de-
pendence of
external price
variation
Desakota
family
networks (rur-
urb)
Mitigation
y Landscape level
C stocks
Livestock-based
emission estimates
PES mecha-
nisms ~ HH
scale
x-scale PES
mechanisms
Adaptation
y Local experience
based learning
as driver of
decisions
Interactions
between diverse
learning styles
Meso-clima-
tic influences
on ClimVar
impacts
X-scale
sustain-agility
analyses
Final remarks
WaNuLCAS, SExI-FS
GenRiver
FALLOW, ABM’s
FBA allometry Tree
Plot/patch
Household/landscape
Watershed Daily Annual time-steps
Common features in x-scale model family ~ databases
Strong interest in using models as ‘boundary objects’ in K2A analysis with local stakeholders
http://www.worldagroforestrycentre.org/af2/fallow_download
Suyamto DA, Mulia R, van Noordwijk M and Lusiana B. 2009. Fallow 2.0. Manual and Software. Bogor, Indonesia. World Agroforestry Centre - ICRAF, SEA Regional Office. 67 p.
Initial version in Stella for 10*10 grid Simplified model operates on PC-Raster dynamic GIS platform, district level <100,000 ha Recent applications
1) in context of OpCost/REALU in Indonesia, Viet Nam
2) Aceh post Tsunami recovery & land use planning
3) Livestock intergration 4) University courses
Multipurpose agroforestry as a climate change resiliency option for farmers: an example of local adaptation in Vietnam
Quan Nguyen, Minh Ha Hoang, Ingrid Öborn, and Meine van Noordwijk
Recently, the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change (Beddington et al. 2011) launched its recommendations for ensuring food security under a changing climate. The report does not mention trees, forests or agroforestry as important for food security. This is in contrast to the ways farming traditions have evolved (van Noordwijk et al. 2011) and how farmers currently try to adapt to further climate change.
Solar radiation and Green-House Gas effect
Rainfall pattern&intensity
Temperature, humidity, windspeed, incoming radiation, potential eva-potranspiration at the level of plants or animals
Local tree cover: wind-breaks, shade trees
Water supply buffered by soil
Plant growth
Vegetation effects on rainfall triggering
Teleconnections of rainfall with sea sur-face temperature
Macro-
Meso-
Micro - climate
van der Ent RJ, Savenije HHG, Schaefli B, Steele‐ Dunne SC, 2010. Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents. Water Resources Research 46, W09525,
E/P
Pfrom Et/P
South Africa’s concept of pay-ments for tree plantations that evaporate water at above-average rates, can not be transferred to E. Africa, where such evapotrans-piration is likely to return as rainfall.
Financial capital
Infra- Natural structure capital
Macro-economic Risk & . development buffering
Spatial planning & LU rights
Giga-economic green development
Human Social capital capital
Emotion, intuition
Ratio Social norms
Pico- economics
sermons