VAMOS TO THE FUTURE: Report and emerging priorities

Hugo Berbery – Dave GochisCo-chairs

Iracema Cavalcanti – Paquita Zuidema Officer Members

Carlos EreñoICPO

With many thanks to US CLIVAR for their continued support

Numerical Weather Pre-diction Division

Science Programs• North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)• Monsoon Experiment for South America (MESA)• VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study (VOCALS)• Intra-Americas Study of Climate Processes (IASCLIP)

Cross-cuts• Modeling• Extremes• Anthropogenic Climate Change

CLIVAR and GEWEX endorsed activity• La Plata Basin Regional Hydroclimate Project (LPB) (CLARIS-LPB and IAI-LPB)

Variability of the American Monsoon Systems

VOCALS – Achievements 2010/2011• PUBLICATIONS: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (EGU Journal) VOCALS Special Issue set up, currently 30 papers in ACP special issue; 60-70 total. VOCALS-REx operations overview paper published (Wood et al. 2011)• MEETINGS: Special VOCALS sessions at AMS Cloud Physics Conference (June 2010), and AGU Fall Meeting (Dec 2010); VOCALS 3rd Science Meeting Miami (March 2011); poster cluster planned for WCRP Open Science Conf. (Oct 2011). Special session requested for AGU Fall Mtg (Dec 2011).

• VOCALS OBSERVATIONAL SYNTHESES: The 20°S latitude line captures a

wide range of boundary-layer/cloud processes, lending itself well to model-observational comparisons

• Synthesis papers published documenting SE Pacific clouds and atmospheric structure, composition and variability sampled along 20oS during VOCALS-REx, Allen et al. (2011) and Bretherton et al. (2010)

• Seven years of VOCALS cruise data compiled along 20oS and described in deSzoeke et al. (2010)

• MODEL ASSESSMENT: Completion of PreVOCA Model Assessment: Modeling the lower troposphere in Southeast Pacific for Oct. 2006 period pre-VOCALS-REx. Paper published, Wyant et al. (2010). – Large scale dynamics well-represented but representation of clouds is poor in

general, and coastal model boundary layers are too shallow• Second phase of VOCALS Model Asessment (VOCA) began fall 2010,

ongoing. Focus is upon aerosol-cloud-climate interactions. Participation from most major modeling centers.

• MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Two Climate Process Teams (CPT) supported by NOAA and NSF will use VOCALS observations and process modeling of VOCALS case studies.

• Climate model improvement of PBL representations assessment (e.g. NCAR CCSM)

VOCALS – Achievements 2010/2011

IASCLIP An integrated ocean-atmosphere research

program focusing on the prediction of the weather and climate impacts of the warm water pool of the Americas (EastPac-Gulf-Caribbean). The WHWP is poorly predicted by research and operational models.

With cooperation of various federal and foreign funding agencies, IASCLIP seeks to improve and expand the observational network across the region as a means to improve NCEP operational models. Early warning systems and long term climate monitoring will benefit from the new network.

IASCLIP seeks to improve operational and research modeling efforts across the Americas through a better understanding of the climate processes within the region.

IASCLIP StatusStatus of the Observational Network

and Climate Modeling in the IASCLIP Domain

CPO has supported An IASCLIP Team to visit countries within the region to assess government and university interest and possible participation in

planned IASCLIP activities

2010 2001-2009 <=2000

Radiosonde StationsLast Reporting Period

FSU June Ensemble Forecast The 2010 Warm Water PoolClimatological area of 28.5 isotherm is shaded in red and the contours show the 28.5 isotherm for all ensemble members. The ensembles include 10 members/day from June 15 to June 24, 2010.

The Challenge for the 2011 IASCLIP Forecast Forum is to unravel the indicators that are pushing some models towards El Nino within the backdrop of an active late Amazon monsoon and Atlantic cooling.

Implementing the VAMOS Modeling Plan

• Leveraging– WGSIP– VAMOS– CHFP, CMIP5, VOCALS, IASCLIP, NAME, MESA,

LPB, CLARIS-LPB, CORDEX …

• How To Coordinate Ongoing Activities into a Coherent Narrative?

• Enabling/Facilitating Collaborative Science?– Exchange of Ideas

VAMOS Modeling Survey: Is Coordination Needed?

VAMOS Modeling Workshop Planned for 2012

VAMOS Extremes Working Group

• The overall focus is on improving our understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of warm season extremes over the Americas

– Develop atlas of warm-season extremes over the Americas– Evaluation of existing and planned simulations – New model runs to address mechanisms and predictability of extremes

Siegfried Schubert and Iracema Cavalcanti(cochairs)

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/subseasonal/atlas/Extremes.html

10

Basic climatologies

Precipitation extremes

SPI time series and mapsPrecipitation return values based on

GEV fits, including impact of ENSO

Various temperature extremes - latest

Data sets: MERRA, CFSR, gridded station obs (CPC, CDC)

Web page: Charaterizing Extremes for the recent past over the Americas http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/subseasonal/atlas/Extremes.html

11

Climatology – Annual Cycle of Daily Precipitation

Choice of Regions

Annual Cycle of daily Precipitation

NAM

W. Brazil

MERRA CFSR

CPC CDC

Annual Cycle of daily PrecipitationMERRA CFSR

CPC CDC

12

VAMOS Extremes WGEXAMPLES

Miami Workshop on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Processes in the Tropical Atlantic: VAMOS Comments

Miami, FL, 23-25 March 2011

VAMOS panel is supportive of a proposal to form a task team with the goals to:

1. refine scope of issue2. tighten scientific hypotheses3. structure a research framework

VAMOS is interested in promoting overlap with the following research communities: IASCLIP tropical Atlantic/ Intra Americas Seas, NAM, Amazon …

La Plata Basin (LPB) Regional Hydroclimate Project

(keywords: extremes, predictability, land use, CC)

CLARIS – LPB: A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin

IAI: Integrated research projects on land use in the La Plata basin

CIC/GEF: Framework Program: Sustainable Management of the Water Resources of the La Plata Basin with respect to the Effects of Climate Variability and Change

http://www.claris-eu.org/

CLARIS LPB- 10 countries, 20 institutions- Coordinator: J.-P. Boulanger

· WP3: Improving our description of recent past climate variability in La Plata Basin

· WP4: Hydroclimate past and future low-frequency variability, trends and shifts

· WP5: Regional Climate Change assessments for La Plata Basin· WP6: Processes and future evolution of extreme climate events in La Plata

Basin

· WP8: Land use, agriculture and socio-economic implications· WP9: Water resources in La Plata Basin in the context of climate change

Courtesy of Anna Sorensson

Integrated research projects on land use in the La Plata basin

• Collaborative Research Network Program II (2006-2012)• The impact of land cover and land use changes (LCLUC) on the hydroclimate of

the La Plata Basin (CRN2094).• Land use change in the Rio de la Plata Basin: linking biophysical and human

factors to understand trends, assess impacts, and support viable strategies for the future (CRN2031).

• Small Grant Program for the Human Dimensions (2007-2011)• Climate change and irrigated agriculture• Coming down the mountain: vulnerability of Andean communities to

hydroclimatologic variability and global environmental change• Decision support system for risk reduction in soybean agriculture for eastern

Paraguay and Rio Grande do Sul

• Land use change, biofuels and rural development in the La Plata Basin – Five projects funded by International Development Research Centre (IDRC) (2008-

2011)

IAI on LPB: research themes

LCLUC

Ecosystems

Land useRural development

Capacity Building

How did the interdisciplinary collaboration between natural and human sciences contribute to significant advances in knowledge and what did we learn in the process?

How can we unify approaches and refine our knowledge of what drives land use change and transitions? (agent based models, stochastic techniques and scenarios)

How do LCLUCs interact with climate, Carbon balances, radiation effects, hydrological impacts and overall energy balance? Can the science of those processes be presented in a systematic way?

Carbon

Water Climate

Societal impactsHuman dimensions

Biofuels Agriculture

Vulnerability - Adaptation

IAI Synthesis Meeting in Asunción, Paraguay (4-7 April, 2011)

Numerical Weather Pre-diction Division

1. Anthropogenic Climate Change

CLIVAR Imperatives

VAMOS Working Group on ACC

NARCAPP + CLARIS LPB + …

Numerical Weather Pre-diction Division

2. Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction(Monsoons; Extremes – drought; …)

3. Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction(Role of land/ocean (GOALS); Initialization; Monsoons, ISV/MJO)

CLIVAR Imperatives

VAMOS Working Group on Extremes

Siegfried Schubert and Iracema Cavalcanti

Annual Cycle of daily Precipitation

VAMOS Modeling Working Group

Ben Kirtman and Celeste Saulo

Model biases

Numerical Weather Pre-diction Division

4. Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs

(Ocean model development; Analysis and Evaluation; Process studies/“Climate Process Teams”)

5. Data Synthesis and Analysis6. Ocean Observing System

CLIVAR Imperatives

VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS)Roberto Mechoso; Rob Wood

Intra-Americas Study of Climate Processes (IASCLIP)Art Douglas

AIP - VAMOS/VOCALS Workshop on model biases

Numerical Weather Pre-diction Division

CLIVAR Imperatives

7. Capacity Building

THE INTERNATIONAL SUMMER SCHOOL ON LAND COVER CHANGE AND HYDROCLIMATE OF THE LA PLATA BASIN

VAMOS Newsletter(outreach)

InternationalInterdisciplinaryIn situClasses + Lab + Field Trip

Thank you

Contributing as co-convenersOral presentationsCluster Posters

We expect to increase our collaborations with:- US CLIVAR- IAI- Other regional Agencies