valuation of maruti suzuki
TRANSCRIPT
Valuation Of Maruti Suzuki
Particulars Mar-20(F) Mar-19(F) Mar-18(F) Mar-17(F) Mar-16(E) Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08
Total Operating Revenues
124299.67 101884.98 84202.46 70168.72 58965.308 49,970.60 43,700.60 43,587.90 35,587.10 36,618.40 29,317.70 20,729.40 18,066.80
YoY % 22% 21% 20% 19% 18% 14% 0% 22% -3% 25% 41% 15% #REF!
Total Expenses 119327.68 95753.269 78701.36 66660.28 55119.822 45,934.00 40,865.00 41,409.30 34,267.70 34,018.40 26,525.00 19,656.10 16,220.70
YoY % 25% 22% 18% 21% 20% 12% -1% 21% 1% 28% 35% 21% #REF!
Expense to sales 96% 94% 93% 95% 93% 92% 94% 95% 96% 93% 90% 95% 90%
Depreciation And Amortisation Expenses
10068.266 7350.201 5561.662 4099.388 3039.9687
2,470.30 2,084.40 1,861.20 1,138.40 1,013.50 825 706.5 568.2
YoY % 37% 32% 36% 35% 23% 19% 12% 63% 12% 23% 17% 24% #REF!
Dep to fixed asset 28% 25% 23% 20% 18% 17% 16% 16% 14% 16% 15% 14% 14%
Finance Costs 160 220 200 150 190 206 175.9 189.8 55.2 25 33.5 51 59.6
YoY % -27% 10% 33% -21% -8% 17% -7% 244% 121% -25% -34% -14% #REF!
Operating Cost 109,099.42 88,183.07 72,939.69 62,410.89 51,889.85 43,257.70 38,604.70 39,358.30 33,074.10 32,979.90 25,666.50 18,898.60 15,592.90
YoY % 24% 21% 17% 20% 20% 12% -2% 19% 0% 28% 36% 21% #REF!
EBITDA 15,200.25 13,701.91 11,262.77 7,757.82 7,075.45 6,712.90 5,095.90 4,229.60 2,513.00 3,638.50 3,651.20 1,830.80 2,473.90
YoY % 11% 22% 45% 10% 5% 32% 20% 68% -31% 0% 99% -26% #REF!
EBITDA TO SALES 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13% 12% 10% 7% 10% 12% 9% 14%
Total Tax Expenses 4408.0734 3973.5535 3266.202 2249.769 2051.8819 1,157.00 875.5 598.9 511 820.2 1,094.90 457.1 763.3
YoY % 11% 22% 45% 10% 77% 32% 46% 17% -38% -25% 140% -40% #REF!
TAX TO EBITDA 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 17% 17% 14% 20% 23% 30% 25% 31%
Profit/Loss For The Period
16158.957 10867.731 10104.3 7718.559 5306.8777 3,711.20 2,783.00 2,392.10 1,635.20 2,288.60 2,497.60 1,218.70 1,730.80
YoY % 49% 8% 31% 45% 43% 33% 16% 46% -29% -8% 105% -30% #REF!
PAT - SALES 13% 11% 12% 11% 9% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 9% 6% 10%
Fixed Assets 35958.094 29400.804 24181.14 20496.94 16888.715 14,142.10 13,411.80 11,740.10 8,132.10 6,391.90 5,412.30 4,932.10 4,032.80
YoY % 22% 22% 18% 21% 19% 5% 14% 44% 27% 18% 10% 22% #REF!
Fixed Assets - SALES Margin 29% 29% 29% 29% 29% 28% 31% 27% 23% 17% 18% 24% 22%
Total Current Liabilities
17936.569 14736.074 12307.36 10480.34 8589.3896 8,823.00 8,074.10 6,727.50 6,547.60 4,018.70 3,969.30 3,463.60 3,218.60
YoY % 22% 20% 17% 22% -3% 9% 20% 3% 63% 1% 15% 8% #REF!
CL to Sales 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 18% 18% 15% 18% 11% 14% 17% 18%
Total Current Assets
23776.062 19925.994 15331.62 14443.26 12317.252 8,197.90 14,171.70 10,946.00 11,079.00 9,620.20 3,772.40 5,491.10 3,090.90
YoY % 19% 30% 6% 17% 50% -42% 29% -1% 15% 155% -31% 78% #REF!
CA to Sales 23% 24% 22% 24% 25% 16% 32% 25% 31% 26% 13% 26% 17%
Working Capital 5,839.49 5,189.92 3,024.26 3,962.92 3,727.86 -625.10 6,097.60 4,218.50 4,531.40 5,601.50 -196.90 2,027.50 -127.70
change in WC 649.57 2,165.66 -938.66 235.06 4,352.96 -6,722.70 1,879.10 -312.90 -1,070.10 5,798.40 -2,224.40 2,155.20 #REF!
CAPEX -3,510.98 -2,130.54 -1,877.46 -491.16 -293.35 -1,740.00 -412.70 1,746.80 601.80 -33.90 -344.80 192.80 #REF!
FCFF(revenue model) 13,653.58 9,693.23 10,812.69 5,764.16 963.96 14,018.60 2,754.00 2,196.80 2,470.30 -2,946.20 5,125.50 -974.30 #REF!
Total Assets 62,535.79 55,382.18 48,858.79 43,436.88 38,468.10 33,551.00 30,535.70 26,734.20 22,302.20 18,425.10 16,444.90 13,675.40 12,404.00
YoY % 13% 13% 12% 13% 15% 10% 14% 20% 21% 12% 20% 10% #REF!
Cost Of Materials Consumed
46,738.82 43,581.94 40,611.08 37,285.24 35,343.04 32,867.80 28,898.90 30,349.20 26,707.00 27,141.80 21,947.90 15,451.20 13,328.50
YoY % 7% 7% 9% 5% 8% 14% -5% 14% -2% 24% 42% 16% #REF!
Purchase Of Stock-In Trade
5,687.49 4,936.86 4,230.59 3,681.18 3,229.25 2,665.20 2,431.40 2,186.40 1,532.50 1,278.10 905 725.6 777.1
YoY % 15% 17% 15% 14% 21% 10% 11% 43% 20% 41% 25% -7% #REF!
Operating And Direct Expenses
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 0 0 0 0 1,061.60 716.1 523.3
YoY % #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -100% 48% 37% #REF!
Changes In Inventories Of FG,WIP And Stock-In Trade
40 60 -40 50 73
-455.9 18.5 23.4 -131.2 -56 -200.9 356.6 -336.3
YoY % -33% -250% -180% -32% -116% -2564% -21% -118% 134% -72% -156% -206% #REF!
COGS 52,466.31 48,578.80 44,801.67 41,016.42 38,645.28 35,077.10 31,348.80 32,559.00 28,108.30 28,363.90 22,652.00 16,533.40 13,769.30
Total Shareholders Funds
47,108.61 41,183.13 35,870.36 31,366.95 27,515.80 23,704.20 20,978.00 18,578.90 15,187.40 13,867.50 11,835.10 9,344.90 8,415.40
YoY % 14% 15% 14% 14% 16% 13% 13% 22% 10% 17% 27% 11% #REF!
Total Capital And Liabilities
62,535.79 55,382.18 48,858.79 43,436.88 38,468.10 33,551.00 30,535.70 26,734.20 22,302.20 18,425.10 16,444.90 13,675.40 12,404.00
YoY % 13% 13% 12% 13% 15% 10% 14% 20% 21% 12% 20% 10% #REF!
Inventories 7,250.07 5,830.41 4,767.40 3,665.93 3,037.14 2,615.00 1,705.90 1,840.70 1,796.50 1,415.00 1,208.80 902.3 1,038.00
YoY % 24% 22% 30% 21% 16% 53% -7% 2% 27% 17% 34% -13% #REF!
Cash And Cash Equivalents
0.10 0.28 0.80 2.90 7.07 18.3 629.7 775 2,436.10 2,508.50 98.2 1,939.00 324
YoY % -65% -64% -72% -59% -61% -97% -19% -68% -3% 2454% -95% 498% #REF!
Current Investments
2,283.97 2,460.41 2,571.26 3,203.40 3,124.31 2,996.40 8,813.10 5,204.80 4,754.10 3,995.60 0 0 0
YoY % -7% -4% -20% 3% 4% -66% 69% 9% 19% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #REF!
Trade Receivables
961.28 1,009.82 1,022.28 1,099.18 1,171.87 1,069.80 1,413.70 1,469.90 937.6 824.5 809.9 918.9 655.5
YoY % -5% -1% -7% -6% 10% -24% -4% 57% 14% 2% -12% 40% #REF!
Trade Payables 12,198.68 10,457.97 8,930.38 7,684.16 6,589.59 5,561.40 4,897.50 4,157.90 3,349.90 2,608.30 2,318.10 2,569.60 854.9
YoY % 17% 17% 16% 17% 18% 14% 18% 24% 28% 13% -10% 201% #REF!
EBIT 5,131.99 6,351.71 5,701.10 3,658.44 4,035.49 4,242.60 3,011.50 2,368.40 1,374.60 2,625.00 2,826.20 1,124.30 1,905.70
Basic EPS (Rs.) 107.01 71.97 66.92 51.12 35.14 24.58 18.43 15.84 11.32 15.84 17.28 8.43 11.98
CURRENT MARKET PRICE AS ON 31 MAR 2016 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1 3719.1
Equity Share Capital 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 151 144.5 144.5 144.5 144.5 144.5
Profit/Loss Before Tax 20,567.03 14,841.28 13,370.50 9,968.33 7,358.76 4,868.20 3,658.50 2,991.00 2,146.20 3,108.80 3,592.50 1,675.80 2,494.10
YoY % 30% 31% 31% 29% 32% 33% 22% 39% -31% -13% 114% -33% #REF!
DCF ANALYSIS
Particulars FCFF (EBITDA Formula) WACC
Years (t)
Discounted FCFF
Mar-20 16573.38012 7% 5 11816.59097
Mar-19 11824.78891 7% 4 9021.074841
Mar-18 12425.5722 7% 3 10142.96821
Mar-17 6952.980996 7% 2 6073.002879
Mar-16 1845.554858 7% 1 1724.817624
Mar-15 14444.36786
Mar-14
3112.109892
Mar-13 2460.340921
Mar-12
2701.785237
Mar-11 -2717.734231
Mar-10
5372.896062
Mar-09 -797.9065381
Mar-08 #REF!
Sum of Discounted FCFF 38778.45
Terminal Value (Growth 5%) 870102.5
Dicsounted Terminal Value (t=5) 620371
Value of company (Sum of Discounted FCFF+Discounted Terminal Value) 659149.5
Shares Outstanding 151
FCFF per share 4365.228
Current Market Price(31 March 2016) 3719
UPSIDE 17%
BUY CALL
Forecasting Financial Ratios
Profitability Ratios Profitability Ratios
Mar-20(F)
Mar-19(F)
Mar-18(F)
Mar-17(F) Mar-16 (E)
Mar-15 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08
Gross Profit Ratio
((Total Operating Revenues-COGS)/Total Operating Revenues) 57.79% 52.32% 46.79% 41.55% 34.46% 29.80% 28.26% 25.30% 21.02% 22.54% 22.74% 20.24% 23.79%
Return on Sales
[PAT/Total Operating Revenues) 13.00% 10.67% 12.00% 11.00% 9.00% 7.43% 6.37% 5.49% 4.59% 6.25% 8.52% 5.88% 9.58%
Return on Assets
[PAT/ Average Total Assets] 25.84% 19.62% 20.68% 17.77% 13.80% 11.06% 9.11% 8.95% 7.33% 12.42% 15.19% 8.91% 13.95%
Return on Equity
[PAT / Average Stockholders' Equity] 34.30% 26.39% 28.17% 24.61% 19.29% 15.66% 13.27% 12.88% 10.77% 16.50% 21.10% 13.04% 20.57%
Net Profit Ratio
[PAT/Total Operating Revenue] 13.00% 10.67% 12.00% 11.00% 9.00% 7.43% 6.37% 5.49% 4.59% 6.25% 8.52% 5.88% 9.58%
Liquidity Ratios Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio [Current Assets / Current Liabilities] 1.32556 1.3522 1.2457 1.378129 1.434 0.9292 1.7552 1.62705 1.69207 2.39386 0.9504 1.58537 0.96032
Quick Ratio
[(Current Assets-Inventory) / Current Liabilities] 0.92136 0.9565 0.8584 1.028337 1.0804 0.6328 1.5439 1.35344 1.4177 2.04175 0.6459 1.32486 0.63782
Cash Ratio
[(Cash and cash equi. + current investment) / CL 0.12734 0.167 0.209 0.305934 0.3646 0.3417 1.1695 0.88886 1.09814 1.61846 0.0247 0.55982 0.10066
Net Working Capital
[Current Assets - Current Liabilities] 5839.49 5189.9 3024.3 3962.921 3727.9 -625.1 6097.6 4218.5 4531.4 5601.5 -196.9 2027.5 -127.7
Management Efficiency Ratios
Management Efficiency Ratios
Receivable Turnover
[Sales / Accounts Receivable] 129.306 100.89 82.367 63.83733 50.317 46.71 30.912 29.6536 37.9555 44.4129 36.199 22.5589 27.5619
Day Sales Outstanding
[365*( Trade Receivables/Sales)] 2.82276 3.6176 4.4314 5.717657 7.254 7.8141 11.808 12.3088 9.61652 8.21834 10.083 16.1798 13.2429
Inventory Turnover
(COGS/Avg. Inventory) 7.23667 8.332 9.3975 11.18853 12.724 13.414 18.377 17.6884 15.6461 20.0452 18.739 18.3236 13.2652
Days Inventory Outstanding
[365*( Inventory/ COGS)] 50.4376 43.807 38.84 32.62269 28.685 27.211 19.862 20.635 23.3284 18.2089 19.478 19.9196 27.5156
Accounts Payable Turnover
(COGS / Accounts Payable) 4.30098 4.6451 5.0168 5.337792 5.8646 6.3072 6.401 7.83064 8.39079 10.8745 9.7718 6.43423 16.1063
Days Payable Outstanding
[365*(Accounts Payable/COGS)] 84.8643 78.577 72.756 68.38034 62.238 57.87 57.023 46.6118 43.5001 33.5648 37.352 56.7278 22.6619
Operating Cycle
[Days Inventory+Days Sales] 53.2604 47.425 43.271 38.34035 35.939 35.025 31.67 32.9438 32.9449 26.4272 29.561 36.0995 40.7585
Cash Conversion Cycle
[Day Sales O/S+Days Inventory O/S-Days Payable O/S] -31.604 -31.15 -29.485 -30.04 -26.299 -22.85 -25.353 -13.668 -10.555 -7.1376 -7.791 -20.628 18.0966
Total Asset Turnover
[Sales/ Total Assets] 1.98766 1.8397 1.7234 1.615418 1.5328 1.4894 1.4311 1.63042 1.59568 1.98742 1.7828 1.51582 1.45653
Leverage Ratios Leverage Ratios
Debt Ratio
[Total Liabilities/Total Assets] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Equity Ratio [Total Equity / 0.75331 0.7436 0.7342 0.722127 0.7153 0.7065 0.687 0.69495 0.68098 0.75264 0.7197 0.68334 0.67844
Total Assets]
Debt-Equity Ratio
[Total Liabilities / Total Equity] 1.32748 1.3448 1.3621 1.384798 1.398 1.4154 1.4556 1.43895 1.46847 1.32865 1.3895 1.46341 1.47396
Times Interest Earned
[(PBT+Finance Cost) / Finance Cost] 129.544 68.46 67.852 67.45552 39.73 24.632 21.799 16.7587 39.8804 125.352 108.24 33.8588 42.8473
Valuation Growth Ratios
EPS [PAT/NO. Of Share] 107.013 71.972 66.916 51.11628 35.145 24.577 18.43 15.8417 11.3163 15.8381 17.284 8.43391 11.9779
Price-Earnings Ratio
[Current Market Price/EPS] 34.7537 51.674 55.579 72.75764 105.82 151.32 201.79 234.766 328.651 234.82 215.17 440.97 310.498
Book Value per Share
[Shareholder's Funds/No Of Share] 311.978 272.74 237.55 207.7281 182.22 156.98 138.93 123.039 105.103 95.9689 81.904 64.6706 58.2381
PB Ratio [Current Market Price/BV] 11.921 13.636 15.656 17.90369 20.41 23.691 26.77 30.227 35.3853 38.7532 45.408 57.5084 63.8603
Valuation Ratios
DATA Required 2015
CMP ON 31 MARCH 2016 3719.1 P/E 151.3214324
EPS ON 31 MARCH 2016 24.57748344 P/B 23.69133318
REVENUE ON 31 MARCH 2016 49,970.60 P/SALES RATIO 11.23829011
NO . O/S SHARE 151 PRICE TO CASH FLOW 87.60242411
NET WORTH 23,704.20 PRICE TO EARNING GROWTH RATIO 42.45430464
ANNUAL DIVIDEND 500.00 DIVIDEND YIELD 0.134441128
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATION 6410.6 MARKET CAP 561584.1
EPS GROWTH 33% ENTERPRISE VALUE 561422.2
SHORT TERM BORROWING 35.4 NET DEBT 161.9
LONG TERM BORROWING 144.8 EV/EBITDA 83.63333284
CASH & CASH EQUIVALENT 18.3 EV/SALES 11.23505021
EBITDA 6,712.90 EV/EBIT 132.3297506
Net Debt= SHORT TERM BORROWING+LONG TERM BORROWING-CASH & CASH EQUIVALENT
Analysis
Company Profiles:
Company 1: Maruti Suzuki: Maruti Suzuki India Limited, formerly known as Maruti Udyog Limited, is an automobile manufacturer in India. It is a subsidiary of
Japanese automobile and motorcycle manufacturer Suzuki Motor Corporation. As of January 2016, it had a market share of 47% of the Indian passenger car
market. Maruti Suzuki manufactures and sells popular cars such as the Alto, Swift, Zen, Celerio, Swift DZire, SX4 and Omni. The company is headquartered
at New Delhi.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
1. Revenue Growth: The revenue growth of the companies has been assumed as follows:
Company 1: Maruti Suzuki: Maruti Suzuki has an potential to grow with an average growth of 22-25 % and the car industry is going to give 5 million car
industry by 2020(as per live mint Dated : 26 Jul,2016) and on this basis the future operating revenue forecasting has been done with an growth rate of 18-22%.
According to sales estimates from analysts polled by Thomson-Reuters, the company is among the best with regard to growth. Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL)
maintained its leadership position with ~45% market share and its presence in the value for money segment, new launches and an extensive sales network,
getting a boost from reviving domestic demand and rising export volumes. With strong export growth and an expanding domestic market, we expect MSIL’s
net sales to grow at 18-22% CAGR.
2. The other financials are based on the revenue and the average/estimated of the last three –five years.
3. WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital) for all the three companies are calculated as follows:
WACC Calculation Maruti Suzuki
WACC 7%
Weight of Debt 30.0%
Weight of Equity 70.0%
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.1%
Corporate tax rate 29.0%
Cost of Debt 3.0%
Cost of Equity 9.1%
Adjusted Risk free Rate 5.0%
Annual inflation rate 9.0%
Country Risk Premium 1.5%
Risk free Rate 8.0%
Unlevered Beta 0.92
Market Premium 4.0%
4. Terminal Growth Rate Assumption: T growth rate is taken 5 % assumption for all the three companies.
5. After calculating the value of the company the following recommendation can be given for each of the companies:
Name of the Company FCFF/ Share (Rs)
Current Market Price (Rs) Upside (%)
Recommendation
Maruti Suzuki 4365.228347 3719 ( As on 31 March 2016) 17% BUY
This report has been prepared by Aakash Singh, MBA Finance Student (SIBM HYD) only for the learning purpose. It includes research analysis, projections, forecasts and other
predictive statements providing a basis for investment decisions. The views expressed therein are based solely on information available publicly/internal data/other reliable
sources believed to be true. The information is provided merely as a complementary service and do not constitute an offer, solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instruments or neither me nor anyone responsible for the risk held by the investor.