V&A OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WATER RESOURCES

SECTOR IN KENYA

Francis Mutua

Department of Meteorology

University of Nairobi – Kenya

National Circumstances• Nat. Dev strongly dependent on

availability and quantity of fresh WR

• Kenya is fairly endowed with water in the form of:– Rainfall (300-1200mm per

annum) - (50% of total freshwater resources)

– ground water (30% of total freshwater resources)

– river flows (10% of total freshwater resources)

– Lakes – (10% of total freshwater resources)

– Glaziers (<0.01% of the total freshwater resources)

– oceans. • Temporal

– Variability– Change

Rainfall Characteristics in Kenya

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A nn ual R ain fall (m m )

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C oefficient o f V ariationof the A n nual R ainfall

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SKEWNESS

Climate Variability and Water Resources• Climate variations have significant consequences on the quality and

quantity of water in all hydrological regimes.• Climate variability is the major cause of the extremes which are

observed in hydrological systems in Kenya: floods and droughts• NB: floods (quick onset) and droughts (slow onset) hazards are part of

the climate systems and therefore unavoidable• However, they need not become disasters because it is possible to to

be prepared for them (especially drought hazards)• Often, they turn into disasters

– Famine and crop failure– Deaths (humans and livestock)– Adverse economic impacts and impoverishment– Conflicts

Disasters in Kenya1. Droughts

2. Floods

3. Lightning, wind-storms, hailstorms, etc

4. Epidemics– Malaria– HIV/AIDS– Cholera

5. Environmental degradation (desertification, pollution, soil erosion, etc)

6. Earthquakes

7. Pest infestation, Conflicts, fires, livestock diseases, etc.

• Most of these are climate-driven vis-à-vis the available freshwater resources such as lakes, rivers and groundwater.

• Thresholds not readily available because of the time-variance of the water resources systems mainly due to increasing land use activities.

Prevalence of Disasters in Kenya

Drought24%

Epidemics43%

Famine2%

Flood29%

Wind Storms2%

Prevalence of different types of hazards in Kenya

Drought65%

Floods5%

Epidemics30%

People AFFECTED by the different types of hazards in Kenya

Drought2%

Floods38%

Epidemics60%

People killed or affected adversely (DISASTERS) by the different types of hazards in Kenya

Institutions involved in Flood/Drought Issues• Ministry of Water Resources Management and Development• Ministry of Agriculture• Ministry of Roads and Public Works• National Disaster Centre in the Office of the President• Provincial Administration in the Office of the President• Kenya Meteorological Department in the Ministry of Transport and

Communications• Ministry of Environment, Natural Resources and Wildlife• National Environmental Management Authority in the Ministry of

Local Government• Ministry of Health• Ministry of Lands and Settlement• Basin Development Authorities• District Disaster Communities• Community flood/drought Committees• NGOS

Floods vulnerabilities

Flood vulnerabilities

Vulnerable People and Places

– People who live on arid or semi-arid lands, in low-lying coastal areas, in water-limited or flood-prone areas

– It is… clear that climate change will, in many parts of the world, adversely affect socio-economic sectors, including water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and human settlements, ecological systems …, and human health …, with developing countries being the most vulnerable. (IPCC 2000a)

– Developing countries… have lesser capacity to adapt and are more vulnerable to climate change damages, just as they are to other stresses. This condition is most extreme among the poorest people. (IPCC 2001: 8)

Flood and drought Impacts• Sectors:

– Community safety (loss of lives, starvation, conflicts, migrations, etc)

– Agriculture– Environmental degradation– Hydropower generation and transmission– Communications infrastructure– Tourism and wildlife– Community Health (malaria, depression, typhoid,

diarrhoea, HIV/AIDS)– Politics– Leisure– etc

VULNERABILITY IN WATER RESOURCES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

The physical factors– Existence of a highly variable hydrological and climatic regime that is marginal for

agricultural and livestock developments;– Episodic precipitation patterns which promote high rates of sedimentation and siltation;– Topography and soil patterns that promote soil erosion;– Lack of variety in climatic conditions across the region which weaken the options for

relocation in strategies which are intended to reduce the drought risk. – Lack of adequate mainstreaming of climate information in water resources planning

The societal factors– Poverty and low income levels;– Conflicts and wars;– Pandemics;– High dependence on rain-fed systems;– Lack of controls for strengthening security in water supplies and consequently in crucial

water uses such as irrigation and hydro-power generation;– Poor planning and management of agricultural water supply and irrigation systems;– High population densities and other factors that inhibit population mobility and

implementation of traditional coping mechanisms;– Inexperience of communities to cope with droughts;– Unwillingness of communities to live with some drought risks as a trade-off against

beneficial services or goods.– Low level of trust in climate prediction products

Vulnerability = Function of: Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity (Resilience)

Drought Vulnerability0

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Flood Vulnerability

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Prioritization of Climate Change issues (NCSA)

Criterion• C1: Poverty reduction and alleviation of hunger

35%• C2: Health concerns including maternal and

child health and life expectancy 25%• C3: Sustainability of the environment 25%• C4: Response to International concerns15%

Prioritization of climate change issues (NCSA)

Climate change issue Ranking of Issues against each of the set criteria

Weighted ranking

Priority

C135%

C225%

C325%

C415%

V & A 4 2 3 1 2.7 1

Awareness & understanding 3 1 4 2 2.5 4

Research & syst. observations 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 5*

GHG inv., abatement, sinks & sequestration

2 2 3 3 2.4 7*

CDM 4 1 3 2 2.65 2

Transfer of Env. Sound techs 3 2 4 1 2.55 3

Climate change strategies and Policy framework

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 6*

Synergies 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 8*

Drought and floods Cyclones and windstorms

Sectors (production systems) Agricultural Livestock Trade and industry Transportation and mobility Population (poverty, economy) Conflicts

Climate Change

Pollution (air and water) Allergens U.V. radiation Desertification

Small scale hazards: go unnoticed at national level but have high impacts at local level (flash floods, hailstorms, frost lightning, etc)

Weather related transportation accidents (in the context of rapid urbanization with increasing population

Landslides due to changing rainfall patterns and migration to sloping areas

Food security Food prod Accessibility Availability

Political stability Conflicts Those who lack knowledge of

environmental conservation Rain-fed agriculture Soil fertility Pastoral farmers (mobility) Water availability Bio-diversity

VULNERABILITY

EMERGING

EXISTING

HAZARDS

Existing and Emerging Hazards and Vulnerabilities

PREVIOUS STUDIES ON V&A IN WATER RESOURCES

• The United States Country Studies Programme (USCSP) in 1994.– WATBAL for water Resources

• The UNDP/GEF Capacity Building in Sub Sahara Africa to Respond to UNFCCC in 1996.

• The INC• UNEP study on the implications of climate

change, sea level rise and vulnerability assessment of selected coastlines.

Findings of Vulnerabilities in W.R in Previous Studies in Kenya

Rainfall

Temperature No change (0) Decrease (-) Increase (+)

No Change (0) Category A (0)Category B (+)

Category A (-)Category B (+)

Category A (+)Category B (+)

Increase (+) Category A (-)Category B (+)

Category A (-)Category B (+)

Category A (+)Category B (+)

Category A: are W.R attributes which are affected directly by CCQuantity, levels. etc

Category B: are W.R attributes which are affected indirectly by CCMainly impacts of CC such as water-use, quality, drought and flood frequencies, etc.

Adaptation1. Unavailability of readily usable climate information in some cases2. Limitations of institutional setup and monitoring priorities3. Inadequate awareness of the value of climate and weather information4. Mistrust in the quality of meteorological data and products5. Unfavorable packaging and delivery of climate and weather information

and products 6. Reducing over-reliance on rainfall in developmental activities

(diversification from rain-fed agriculture to more use of groundwater)7. Reducing pollution in water resources (proper land-use management -

policies)8. Large isolated vs. small and well distributed water supply projects9. Education and awareness10. Promotion of water-use efficient technologies to minimize wastages11. Monitoring, assessments and research (development of sustainable EWS)

• Kenya govt has been sensitized on many of these issues and has in the past few years been spearheading development and implementation of policies that can strengthen the resilience of the society (reduce their vulnerabilities) in the water sector due to climate change

Capacity Needs in V&A in Water Resources- Kenya

CC Issue

Capacity needs

Systemic Institutional Individual

VA An overall policy framework to direct what is by necessity an integrated multi-sector, multi-disciplinary approach to V&A.

Clearly defined institutional mandates and responsibilities.

Specialized institutions in V&A with special capacity to develop analysis in the economic impacts of climate change (economic vulnerability).

Generally well-trained human resources to address global climate change.

Easy access to data from climate measurement/monitoring systems.

Specially trained individual with analytical skills to evaluate adaptation projects and identify abatement and adaptation options (in both energy and non-energy sectors), undertake vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning, evaluate barriers to specific policies, and introduce the economic dimension to V&A policy planning.