v2 - ause01z60ma t h e g u i d e 159th melbourne cup ... · time out. there have been big price...

THE AUSTRALIAN, MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2019 31V2 - AUSE01Z60MA

Channel Ten Melbourne Cup Carnival host Francesca Cumani expects the foreign raiders to dictate proceedings at Flemington tomorrow

As is the case with the evolving nature of therace that stops the nation there is a strong inter-national contingent hoping to get their handson the prestigious prize.

The locals will be pinning their hopes on thelikes of Finche and Vow And Declare, who both bring strong form into the race. I can’t help but be continually impressed by Mer De Glace’sCaulfield Cup victory and while there are argu-ments that some of the beaten horses could re-verse the form with a bit more luck in running I believe we may be overcomplicating the puzzle.

The Japanese galloper powered clear andwas strong at the line in victory and the extra dis-

tance shouldn’t prove a barrier to sending the Cup back to Japan.

It would be an amazing achievement for MerDe Glace’s jockey Damian Lane, who is looking to become the first jockey to win the Australian Grand Slam in the same season. Fans of this horse and his connections will be on weather watch because traditionally these Japanese gal-lopers don’t go well in the wet.

Of the others, Magic Wand is an incrediblyreliable mare who has danced most dances anddrops to handicap company for the first time in20 starts. Her run in the Cox Plate was encour-aging and she is nicely weighted for her trainer

Aidan O’Brien. At much bigger prices, TwilightPayment has proven stamina and is one of fourin the race for young trainer Joseph O’Brienwho knows what it takes to win the Cup as heshowed with Rekindling in 2017, when he de-feated his father Aidan.

However, I keep coming back to Mustajeerat tasty odds. He has a good weight, has a goodbarrier and he has Damien Oliver in the saddle.He showed the ability to cope with a large fieldin the Ebor at York this year. Having securedvictory there he will have developed a know-how for the hustle and bustle of a Cup and hisrun last time out at Caulfield was full of promise.

Francesca says The defending champion will have to carry 6.5kg more to victory if he is to become only the fifth horse to win consecutive Melbourne Cups. Ran well in defeat behind the world’s best stayer Stradi-varius this season in the UK.

Price $13Jockey William Buick

Trainer Charlie ApplebyBarrier 5Weight 57.5kg

Age 5Starts 12 1st 2nd 3rd

6 2 1

1CROSS COUNTER

Francesca says Japanese raider who was brilliant in winning the Caulfield Cup. Stretches out over two miles for the first time but looks as though the trip will be within his compass. Jockey Damian Lane is chasing a historic Australian Grand Slam.

Price $6.50Jockey Damian Lane

Trainer Hisashi ShimizuBarrier 2Weight 56kg


8 2 5

2MER DE GLACE

Francesca says Looking to give 26-year-old trainer Joseph O’Brien a second Cup following Rekindling’s win two years ago. Finished third at huge odds in the G1 Ascot Gold Cup in June.Frankie Detttori looks for his elusive first Melbourne Cup.

Price $26Jockey Frankie Dettori

Trainer Joseph O’BrienBarrier 1Weight 55.5kg


3 1 2

3MASTER OF REALITY

Francesca says Finished third in the Caulfield Cup behind Mer De Glace in his first start for his new barn since leaving England. This son of Frankel is stretching out over two miles for the first time but hit the line well at Caulfield and should improve.

Price $34Jockey Ben Melham

Trainer T Busuttin, N YoungBarrier 13Weight 55.5kg


4 5 4

4MIRAGE DANCER

Francesca says Formerly trained by Aidan O’Brien where he finished third in the 2018 St Leger. G3 winner two starts ago in Ireland and G1 placed last time out brings a solid staying profile to the contest. Now in the care of Ciaron Maher and David Eustace.

Price $21Jockey Mark Zahra

Trainer C Maher, D EustaceBarrier 14Weight 55.5kg


3 3 3

5SOUTHERNFRANCE

Francesca says Won in the MV Gold Cup last time out under Ryan Moore. Beaten convincingly in Europe this year on a couple of occasions behind the superstar Enable and needs to take another step forward to get competitive.

Price $21Jockey Seamie Heffernan

Trainer Aidan O’BrienBarrier 11Weight 55kg


3 2 5

6HUNTINGHORN

Francesca says Another Joseph O’Brien galloper. 2018 Irish Derby victor who finished runner-up in the G1 Mackinnon in the same year. Hasn’t been quite as good in 2019 but got a confidence-boosting victory two starts back in G3 company.

Price $26Jockey James McDonald

Trainer Joseph O’BrienBarrier 22Weight 55kg


3 6 1

7LATROBE

Francesca says Impressive win in the Ebor before finishing an eye-catching sixth behind Mer De Glace in the Caulfield Cup. Now in the care of Kris Lees since leaving Ireland. Write this horse off at your peril. Oliver looks for his fourth Melbourne Cup.

Price $17Jockey Damien Oliver

Trainer Kris LeesBarrier 6Weight 55kg


4 3 3

8MUSTAJEER

Francesca says One of the outsiders who was soundly beaten in the Caulfield Cup last time out. There have been big price winners in recent renewals of the Cup, notably Prince Of Penzance, but it would be a big surprise if Rostropovich won.

Price $67Jockey Dwayne Dunn

Trainer D, B Hayes, T DabernigBarrier 12Weight 55kg


4 2 3

9ROSTROPOVICH

Francesca says Has raced 11 times since he was gelded at the start of his four-year-old season and has never finished out of the first four. Won two of his last three starts and is a guaranteed stayer. Likes to race on speed and could outrun his big odds.

Price $67Jockey Hugh Bowman

Trainer Joseph O’BrienBarrier 19Weight 55kg


5 9 5

10TWILIGHTPAYMENT

Francesca says Chris Waller is yet to win the Melbourne Cup but in Finche he has a great chance. Fifth in the Caulfield Cup was eye-catching and having finished fourth in the Melbourne Cup last year he has been here and got the T-shirt.

Price $10Jockey Kerrin McEvoy

Trainer Chris WallerBarrier 4Weight 54kg


4 1 3

11FINCHE

Francesca says Last year’s third placegetter comes into this race on the back of victory in the Geelong Cup. Has a bigger gap between races into the Cup this time round than 12 months ago — will that make the difference? Saves his best for Australia.

Price $17Jockey Michael Walker

Trainer Charlie FellowesBarrier 8Weight 54kg


6 7 5

12PRINCE OF ARRAN

Francesca says Fourth in the Ebor behind Mustajeer last time out. Has been a standing dish in some valuable staying races. Assured to stay the trip, he will be hoping to give his syndicate of owners, Middleham Park Racing, a day they will never forget.

Price $17Jockey Jamie Spencer

Trainer Richard HannonBarrier 3Weight 54kg


3 3 1

13RAYMOND TUSK

Francesca says Snaring the final place in the field was Downdraft, a fourth runner in the race for Joseph O’Brien. Third in the MV Gold Cup behind Hunting Horn before winning the Hotham on Saturday. If he handles the three-day back-up he is in with a chance.

Price $21Jockey John Allen

Trainer Joseph O’BrienBarrier 15Weight 53.5kg


7 2 1

14DOWNDRAFT

Francesca says A talented globe trotter who ran respectably when fourth in the Cox Plate. The first time in her career she runs in a handicap having run in 14 G1 WFA races but the two miles is an unknown and Ryan Moore has barrier 24 to contend with..

Price $26Jockey Ryan Moore

Trainer Aidan O’BrienBarrier 24Weight 53.5kg


2 7 2

15MAGIC WAND

Francesca says Another at huge odds who would cause a Melbourne Cup upset if he was victorious. Five lengths behind Prince Of Arran in the Geelong Cup last time out.

Price $151Jockey Luke Nolen

Trainer D, B Hayes, T DabernigBarrier 23Weight 53.5kg


3 2 1

16NEUFBOSC

Francesca says Lining up for trainer Michael Moroney on the back of a reasonable effort in the Caulfield Cup when four lengths behind Mer De Glace. Has run in a number of decent staying races this season without ever troubling the judge.

Price $101Jockey James Winks

Trainer Michael MoroneyBarrier 10Weight 53.5kg


7 2 1

17SOUND

Francesca says One of the main domestic hopes. This horse cost $5500, trained in heavy sand at Horsham by bush trainer Paul Preusker, who is having his first Cup runner. Victory in the Bart Cummings Stakes confirmed him as a real staying talent.

Price $15Jockey Jordan Childs

Trainer Paul PreuskerBarrier 20Weight 53.5kg


5 1 1

18SURPRISEBABY

Francesca says Former market leader having run fourth in the Caulfield Cup on his first run in Australia. Talented but there is a question mark about his commitment in the closing stages and has looked a tricky ride on occasions.

Price $8Jockey Joao Moreira

Trainer D, B Hayes, T DabernigBarrier 7Weight 52.5kg


2 4 1

19CONSTANTINOPLE

Francesca says One of three runners in the race for Aidan O’Brien. Finished fifth in the G1 St Leger at Doncaster last time out. Not far behind Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup at York the time before. Versatile runner with only 52.5kg on his back.

Price $15Jockey Wayne Lordan

Trainer Aidan O’BrienBarrier 17Weight 52.5kg


2 2 2

20IL PARADISO

Francesca says Secured his spot after winning The Andrew Ramsden Stakes in May. More recently finshed seventh behind Prince Of Arran in the Geelong Cup. Will be ridden by Brett Prebble looking for his second Cup following victory in 2013.

Price $67Jockey Brett Prebble

Trainer Anthony FreedmanBarrier 16Weight 52.5kg


8 5 1

21STEEL PRINCE

Francesca says Victorious in the Herbert Power at Caulfield two runs back, beating Prince Of Arran. No match for the winner in the Caulfield Cup last time out but a reproduction of his Herbert Power run would give him a squeak with only 52kg.

Price $81Jockey Tim Clark

Trainer M Baker, A ForsmanBarrier 18Weight 52kg


5 2 0

22THE CHOSEN ONE

Francesca says Runner-up in the Caulfield Cup looking to give star hoop Craig Williams an elusive first Melbourne Cup. Having spent his whole career on these shores, this is a runner the locals can really identify with and regain the cup for Australia.

Price $11Jockey Craig Williams

Trainer Danny O’BrienBarrier 21Weight 52kg


3 2 2

23VOW ANDDECLARE

Francesca says Sixth in the race 12 months ago behind Cross Counter when sent off at shorter odds. She will need to take a step forward on recent form if she is to go five places better.

Price $34Jockey Tommy Berry

Trainer Chris WallerBarrier 9Weight 52kg


4 1 4

24YOUNGSTAR

MELBOURNE CUPT H E G U I D E 159th Melbourne Cup Carnival | Tuesday November 5, 2019 | Flemington

THE CUP’S BIGGEST THREATS FRANCESCA’S TIPS

1 MUSTAJEER

2 MER DE GLACE

3 MAGIC WAND

ROUGHIE

RAYMOND TUSK

v2 - ause01z60ma t h e g u i d e 159th melbourne cup ... · time out. there have been big price...

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