us/russia cooperation in missile defense: opportunities...
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US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20101
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Uzi Rubin
Based on open source material. Copyright Rubincon Ltd
Presentation to the Moscow Non Proliferation Conference 2010
• Levels of potential Cooperation.
• US and Russian MD assets.
• Technological and operational challenges.
• Conclusions.
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
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Potential Levels of Cooperation between US and Russian MD Assets
1. Joint defense of deployed peace keeping forces: Joint overseas deployment of Theater Missile Defense
systems to protect peace keeping forces.
2. Joint defense of adjacent regions : Coordinated deployment of Theater and National Missile
Defense systems to protect a region against external missile.
3. Joint defense of the national homeland territories of both parties. Use of National Missile Defense systems for mutual
protection of each other’s homeland territories against
missile threats from diverse sources.
This presentation focuses on the technical and operational aspects of the issue,not on the political ones
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 20103
The World As We Know It
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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The World With Lost Continents Added…
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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Level 1 Cooperation
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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Level 2 Cooperation
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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Level 3 Cooperation – Russian MD Supporting US Homeland Defense
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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Level 3 Cooperation – US MD Supporting Russian Homeland Defense
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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March 20109
US/Russia MD Assets
Theater Missile Defense Systems
• Tactical area defense Interceptor speeds 2 – 3 Km/Sec.
Defense of Ten Thousand to Hundred Thousand Square Km areas.
• Deployable/Mobile.
• Mostly multirole (Air/Missile Defense):
US land based: Patriot PAC 3 (Future MEADS), Thaad
US sea based: AEGIS/SM2 + SM3 Block I
Russia land based: S – 300/400
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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US Land Based TMD Systems: Patriot PAC 3/ MEADS
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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US Land Based TMD Systems: THAAD
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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March 201012
US Land Based TMD Systems: THAAD
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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March 201013
Russia Land Based TMD Systems: S300/S400
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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March 201014
Russia’s Land Based TMD Systems: S300/S400
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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March 201015
US Sea Based TMD Systems: AEGIS/Standard Missile 3 Block I
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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Level 1 Cooperation - Technological Challenges
• In spite of the asymmetry in sea based TMD assets, Level 1 cooperation (Providing joint missile defense of deployed peace keeping forces) is feasible with the ground based assets of both countries.
• Due to short timelines, best results require integrated tactical defense hence real time synchronization of the disparate system’s operations. This will require the
systems of both countries to be interoperable with each other (i.e. operate as a single System of Systems)
• Assuming that Russia’s systems use modern computerized systems with advanced
operating software systems, interoperability is ultimately feasible.
• This in turn will require in turn high level of transparency about the technicalparameters of both side’s systems.
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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March 201017
Level 1 Cooperation - Operational Challenges
• Joint operations would require the establishment of
A mutually agreed command structure.
A harmonized set of Rules of Engagement.
• These issues might be more complicated to resolve than the technical challenges.
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201018
US/Russia MD Assets
Strategic MD Systems
• Strategic area defense (Large regions, entire continents)
Interceptor speeds 4 – 7 Km/Sec.
Defense of millions square Km. areas.
• Fixed/Relocateable. .
• Single Role (Missile Defense):
US land based: GMDS, “AEGIS Ashore” with SM3 Block II A, ditto
with Block IIB
Russia land based: S – 500
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201019
US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: Ground Based Midcourse Defense System (GMDS)
6+ Km/sec
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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GMDS Footprint
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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US Land Based Strategic Missile Defense Systems: AEGIS Ashore/Standard Missile 3 Block IIA and Block IIB
4 Km/sec 6 Km/sec ?
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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AEGIS/SM3 Footprints
Courtesy Dean Wilkening, Stanford U. CISAC
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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No Image Available
5-5.5 Km/Sec
Russia Land Based Strategic Missile Defense System: S500
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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Level 2 and 3 Cooperation - Technological Challenges
• Both countries might have the assets for Level 2 and 3 cooperation (Regional and mutual homeland defense) – provided that the S-500 system materializes.
• Due to the longer timelines of Regional/Continental range missiles, close interoperability between systems may not be mandatory.
• Data links for mutual early warning and shared sky picture will be required.
• Assuming that Russia’s systems use modern computerized systems with advancedoperating software systems, these requirements can be met.
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201025
Levels 2 and 3 Cooperation - Operational Challenges
• Joint regional defense/Mutual homeland defense will require a mutually acceptable rules of engagement.
• This might be more complicated to resolve than the technical challenges.
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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Example: US East Coast defense Against Mideast ICBM
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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US Phase Adaptive plan, Phase IV - 2020 ( US only)Candidate interceptors: SM3 Blk IIB or 2 stg. GBI
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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US Phase Adaptive plan, Phase IV - 2020 ( US/Russia)Candidate interceptor: S-300
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
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Some Generic Challenges of Joint Missile Defense
• Some regulatory challenges: National security: Confidentiality of system/component performance,
operational requirements and operational procedures. Proliferation controls: Transfer of information must be compliant with
national legislation and regulations. Proprietary information: confidentiality and commercial rights in proprietary
information.
• Some technical/managerial challenges: Language: Communications and documents. R&D procedures: Design criteria, design reviews, data books, level of testing
etc. Dimensions: Metric, US. Voltage: European, US. Software: Operating systems, applications.
The regulatory challenges are dominant.Once solved, the technical/managerial challenges will be overcome in short order.
US/Russia Cooperation in Missile Defense: Opportunities and Challenges
Rubincon Ltd.Defense Technology Consulting
March 201030
Summary
• Generally speaking, the MD assets of the US and Russia are compatible with level 1 cooperation provided that technological and operational interfaces are perfected.
• Joint operation on level 2 and in particular level 3 are conditioned on Russia’s
plans for deploying a regional/continental capability MD system.
• The major challenges to the prospects of cooperation are political. Regulatory challenges are secondary but formidable.
• Technological and operational challenges are tertiary and will be resolved in short order pending resolution of political and regulatory challenges.