using pro-growth public policy to create a real strategy...
TRANSCRIPT
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Using ProUsing Pro--Growth Public Growth Public Policy to CreatePolicy to Create
a Real Strategy for a Real Strategy for American InnovationAmerican Innovation
Russell S. Sobel, Ph.D.Russell S. Sobel, Ph.D.
Professor of EconomicsProfessor of EconomicsJames Clark Coffman Distinguished ChairJames Clark Coffman Distinguished Chair
West Virginia UniversityWest Virginia University
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What Explains Prosperity?What Explains Prosperity?
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Adam SmithAdam Smith’’s Question:s Question:Why Are Some Countries Rich and Others Poor?Why Are Some Countries Rich and Others Poor?
An Inquiry into the Nature and An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776)Nations (1776)
Policies and the system of economic organization Policies and the system of economic organization (e.g., capitalism) matter more than things such (e.g., capitalism) matter more than things such as resources, geography, education, democracy, as resources, geography, education, democracy, etc., in determining prosperityetc., in determining prosperity
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Rankings of Reliance on CapitalismRankings of Reliance on Capitalism
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A Quick Tour of The A Quick Tour of The WorldWorld
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Example 1Example 1
A Country with VERY LOW Economic A Country with VERY LOW Economic FreedomFreedom
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ZimbabweZimbabwe
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Families in ZimbabweFamilies in Zimbabwe
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Families in ZimbabweFamilies in Zimbabwe
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Example 2Example 2
A Country with LOW Economic A Country with LOW Economic FreedomFreedom
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RomaniaRomania
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Families in RomaniaFamilies in Romania
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Families in RomaniaFamilies in Romania
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Families in RomaniaFamilies in Romania
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Families in RomaniaFamilies in Romania
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Families in RomaniaFamilies in Romania
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Families in RomaniaFamilies in Romania
Certainly one cannot argue that Romania is poor Certainly one cannot argue that Romania is poor because they donbecause they don’’t have enough entrepreneurial t have enough entrepreneurial peoplepeople……..
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Families in RomaniaFamilies in Romania
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Families in RomaniaFamilies in Romania
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Example 3Example 3
A Country with MEDIUM Economic A Country with MEDIUM Economic FreedomFreedom
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IndiaIndia
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Families in IndiaFamilies in India
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Families in IndiaFamilies in India
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Example 4Example 4
A Country with HIGH Economic A Country with HIGH Economic FreedomFreedom
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Hong KongHong Kong
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Families in Hong KongFamilies in Hong Kong
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Families in Hong KongFamilies in Hong Kong
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The Role of the EntrepreneurThe Role of the Entrepreneur
Decentralized entrepreneurship is Decentralized entrepreneurship is one main reason why capitalism one main reason why capitalism works to generate progress and works to generate progress and prosperity prosperity
Entrepreneurs keep inventing new Entrepreneurs keep inventing new things that improve our way of lifethings that improve our way of life
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Our HomesOur Homes
Percent of homes with Heating & Air ConditioningPercent of homes with Heating & Air Conditioning19561956 = 6%= 6% 1996 = 81%1996 = 81%
Percent of homes with only one bathroomPercent of homes with only one bathroom19561956 = 71%= 71% 1996 = 9%1996 = 9%
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And They are Better: Our ShowersAnd They are Better: Our Showers
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Our CarsOur Cars
We now have DVD players, Air We now have DVD players, Air Conditioning, AntiConditioning, Anti--lock Brakes, lock Brakes, Power windowsPower windows
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Our PhonesOur Phones
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Our EntertainmentOur Entertainment
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Our ScienceOur Science
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Our ComputersOur Computers
MacBook AirMacBook Air
Least expensiveLeast expensive--1111--inch, inch, 64GB, $999.0064GB, $999.00
Most expensiveMost expensive-- 1313--inch, inch, 256GB, $1,599.00256GB, $1,599.00
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Our Video GamesOur Video Games
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From Pong to Rock BandFrom Pong to Rock Band
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Our MedicineOur Medicine
U.S. Life Expectancy has risen from 48 in 1900 to 76 todayU.S. Life Expectancy has risen from 48 in 1900 to 76 today
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Our MusicOur Music
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Creative DestructionCreative DestructionAn economy undergoes continuous change An economy undergoes continuous change –– some industries fail, others are bornsome industries fail, others are born
Capitalism critically relies on Capitalism critically relies on entrepreneurship and the profit and loss entrepreneurship and the profit and loss system to direct this processsystem to direct this process
This process cannot be centrally planned or This process cannot be centrally planned or directed effectively directed effectively -- it must be it must be discovereddiscoveredwithin the marketplacewithin the marketplace
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Nobody Knows Enough to Centrally Plan an Economy:
The Future Must be Discovered
Ken Olson, chairman/founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977."There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Fred Smith’s (FedEx) Yale University Senior Project Grade Remark:"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn
better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible."
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Would you have invested?Would you have invested?
Microsoft Corporation 1978Microsoft Corporation 1978
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Cross State Differences in Cross State Differences in Economic Freedom Matter TooEconomic Freedom Matter Too
West Virginia Ranks: West Virginia Ranks: 5050thth in Economic in Economic
Freedom/CapitalismFreedom/Capitalism
4848thth in Per Capita Incomein Per Capita Income
4747thth in Private Entrepreneurship in Private Entrepreneurship
We can learn a lot about what We can learn a lot about what NOT to do from WVNOT to do from WV’’s policiess policies
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Table 2: Economic Freedom and Entrepreneurial ActivityTable 2: Economic Freedom and Entrepreneurial Activity
Table 2: Economic Freedom and Entrepreneurial Activity
Economic Freedom Index Measures of Entrepreneurial Activity (annual averages)
State ScoreOverall Rank
Rank (among U.S. states only)
Venture Capital
Investment Per Capita
Patents Per Capita (per 100,000)
Sole Proprietor
ship Growth Rate
Establishment
Birth Rate
Establishment
Birth Rate (Large Firms Only)
Top 5 StatesDelaware 8.5 1 1 $60.97 52.6 5.5% 13.1% 14.2%Texas 7.8 2 2 $113.29 25.9 3.3% 12.8% 12.0%Colorado 7.6 4 (tie) 3 (tie) $333.22 37.1 4.6% 14.2% 13.0%Georgia 7.6 4 (tie) 3 (tie) $103.63 14.6 4.0% 13.5% 11.7%North Carolina 7.6 4 (tie) 3 (tie) $82.57 19.5 3.5% 11.7% 10.3%
Bottom 5 StatesMontana 6.0 47 (tie) 46 (tie) $14.30 12.6 1.9% 12.0% 10.7%New Mexico 6.0 47 (tie) 46 (tie) $10.08 16.3 2.7% 12.1% 10.8%Maine 5.8 49 (tie) 48 (tie) $34.96 9.3 3.0% 11.2% 9.5%Mississippi 5.8 49 (tie) 48 (tie) $18.53 5.6 3.4% 11.1% 9.7%West Virginia 5.3 55 50 $0.00 0.0 2.8% 9.5% 8.6%
Average - Top 5 $138.74 29.9 4.2% 13.1% 12.2%Average - Bottom 5 $15.57 8.8 2.8% 11.2% 9.9%Difference $123.16 21.2 1.4% 1.9% 2.4%
Table 2: Economic Freedom and Entrepreneurial Activity
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Policy Reforms to Promote Policy Reforms to Promote EntrepreneurshipEntrepreneurship
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Policy Reforms to Promote Policy Reforms to Promote EntrepreneurshipEntrepreneurship
Three general categories:Three general categories:
•• Make it easier to start a business by reducing Make it easier to start a business by reducing artificial barriers to entry and competitionartificial barriers to entry and competition
•• Make it easier for existing businesses to be Make it easier for existing businesses to be profitable and grow by lowering the cost of doing profitable and grow by lowering the cost of doing businessbusiness
•• Reduce the role of government in Reduce the role of government in ““playing playing favoritesfavorites”” or picking winners and losersor picking winners and losers
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Reduce Barriers to Entrepreneurship & Reduce Barriers to Entrepreneurship & Create a Regulatory Review ProcessCreate a Regulatory Review Process
There is no natural profit & loss type processThere is no natural profit & loss type process
to get rid of to get rid of ““badbad”” or outdated regulations.or outdated regulations.
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Increasing Profitability & GrowthIncreasing Profitability & Growth
Lower Taxes on Lower Taxes on Capital InvestmentCapital Investment
Legal reform: Excessive lawsuits make it both more Legal reform: Excessive lawsuits make it both more costly and risky to do businesscostly and risky to do business
Specialization is limited by extent of the market Specialization is limited by extent of the market ––lowering costs makes businesses more lowering costs makes businesses more competitive in national and global marketscompetitive in national and global markets
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Quit Playing FavoritesQuit Playing Favorites ““Crony CapitalismCrony Capitalism”” is when business winners and is when business winners and
losers are determined by political connections losers are determined by political connections rather than private market forcesrather than private market forces•• -- The Case of Serious MaterialsThe Case of Serious Materials
BaumolBaumol’’ss Theory of Productive and Unproductive Theory of Productive and Unproductive EntrepreneurshipEntrepreneurship•• ““Too Many Lobbyists & Lawyers and Too Few Scientists Too Many Lobbyists & Lawyers and Too Few Scientists
and Engineersand Engineers””•• WV Ranks 47WV Ranks 47thth in Productive Entrepreneurship but 5in Productive Entrepreneurship but 5thth in in
Unproductive EntrepreneurshipUnproductive Entrepreneurship
Eliminate Targeted Tax Credits & Subsidies in Eliminate Targeted Tax Credits & Subsidies in favor of Broad Based Taxesfavor of Broad Based Taxes
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Reduce Government Control & CentralizationReduce Government Control & Centralization
Reduce the Size of Government to Shift Resources Back into the Private Sector
- WV Govt. Spending > 50% of Economy
Decentralize Government
- WV is 2nd most centralized state
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Thank You / Q&A
Contact Information:
Russell S. Sobel, Ph.D.Coffman Distinguished Chair
Dept. of Economics, WVU
(304) 293-7864
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Slides for possible Slides for possible Q&A answers followQ&A answers follow
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1. Lower Taxes on Productive Activities1. Lower Taxes on Productive ActivitiesExample:Example:
Taxes on Capital InvestmentTaxes on Capital Investment
National Association of ManufacturersNational Association of Manufacturers2009 Competitiveness Redbook2009 Competitiveness Redbook
WV =WV = $833,234 $833,234 -- 1414thth highesthighest
MD =MD = $593,950 $593,950 -- 3131stst highesthighestNC =NC = $491,071 $491,071 -- 3737thth highesthighestKY =KY = $327,100 $327,100 -- 4747thth highesthighestVA =VA = $241,498 $241,498 -- 4949thth highesthighestDE =DE = $238,840 $238,840 -- 5050thth highesthighest
Firm with $25m assets ($12.5m machinery & equip., $10m inventoryFirm with $25m assets ($12.5m machinery & equip., $10m inventory, $2.5m fixtures), $2.5m fixtures)
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North Korea vs. South KoreaNorth Korea vs. South Korea
Per Capita Income= $1,800
Per Capita Income
= $24,200
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Growth is a function of Growth is a function of ““inputsinputs”” AND AND ““institutionsinstitutions””
Figure 2.1: Inputs, Institutions, and Outcomes
Economic Inputs and Resources
Examples:Skilled Labor ForceTechnology & InfrastructureResource AvailabilityFinancing for New Businesses
Examples:Tax System StructureBusiness RegulationsLegal/Judicial SystemPrivate Property Right Security
Economic Outcomes
Examples:Wage and Income GrowthNew Business FormationJobs CreatedPatents IssuedGoods and Services
Source: Hall and Sobel (2006).
Rules of the Game
(Govt. Policy)
Spending to Spending to increase increase
““inputsinputs”” wonwon’’t t work unless work unless the the ““ovenoven”” is is
turned onturned on
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Route 50Route 50
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Wise use of Tax Money?Wise use of Tax Money?
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1965 PCPI Ranks: WV=42, GA=41, NC=45
Figure 1.3: State Growth Comparisons
$13,361 $13,900 $13,194
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
West Virginia Georgia North Carolina
Per C
apita
Inco
me
1965 2005
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1965 PCPI Ranks: WV=42, GA=41, NC=452005 PCPI Ranks: WV=48, GA=33, NC=35
Growth Rates: WV=1.4%, GA=2.0%, NC=2.2%
Figure 1.3: State Growth Comparisons
$13,361 $13,900 $13,194
$26,029
$31,191 $31,029
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
West Virginia Georgia North Carolina
Per C
apita
Inco
me
1965 2005
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Figure 1.1: Average Income by State, 2005
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
WVWV’’s PCPI: Rank 48th s PCPI: Rank 48th –– 75% of U.S. Average75% of U.S. Average
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You can see it at our state borderYou can see it at our state border
50 years ago Charleston WV and Charlotte NC had 50 years ago Charleston WV and Charlotte NC had the same population and per capita incomethe same population and per capita income
West Virginia will soon be only one of two states West Virginia will soon be only one of two states with no city of 50,000 or morewith no city of 50,000 or more