using megatrends for future success
TRANSCRIPT
using megatrends to ensure the future success of your business
frederic de meyer founder
www.i4fi.com
www.fredericdemeyer.com
let’s start with a challenge: what do these have in common?
here’s a hint…
Ford almost got out of business in the early
1900’s for sticking to it standardized products
In 2002 Barbie lost its market predominance to a new competitor who just entered this
market the year before
Until 2006 Coca Cola was boycotted
multiple times in India due to its water
mismanagement practices
GM’s Hummer saw sales drop 85% from
2006 to 2009
sometimes long-term shifts can have short-term consequences!
but megatrends offer concrete opportunities as well
Tata’s Nano-car specifically designed for rising middle class
in India
Siemens reorganization aligns
each business unit to a challenge linked to
megatrends
Google.org philanthropic activities
mixes core product with social good
Crowdsourcing, desintermediation and
open innovation are creating complete
new industries
so why understanding and assessing megatrends is crucial for the future of your
business?
one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event...
an increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend
before we start… what are megatrends exactly?
a worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend
and the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends
look beyond the obvious… megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences
ageing population
health care need to prepare for massive elderly
population with specific needs
utilities adapt services to specific needs of
elderly
entertainment/leisure need to prepare for specific needs and
time of retired people
retail need to adapt to changing consumption
patterns
governments need to find a solution for worsening
worker/retired ratio
finance/insurance specific offering for elderly people
manufacturing needs to find solutions for skills gap/
talent shortage
education needs to develop specific programs to
keep elderly at work
impact obvious
impact less obvious
transport public transport need to adapt to needs
of elderly population
marketing elderly people will keep at work through
crowdsourcing.?
look beyond the obvious… megatrends sometimes do have unsuspected consequences
desintermediation
retail shops did loose some business already through
direct selling/ ecommerce
health care „peer-to-peer‟ health provision projects
arise in US
IT services „do it yourself‟ concepts are getting
mainstream
music industry some fan-funding models have gone
broke, others getting successful banking peer-to-peer lending growing from
800m$ to 3b$ this year
Consulting get instant / online / mass-customized
advise?
head hunting recruitment websites and social media
are being used for talent search
impact obvious
impact less obvious
marketing crowdsourcing and open innovation
eating away share
Governments direct redistribution of wealth?
it‟s the crucial first step to ensure your future success
1. Megatrend exercise 2. Business Model
innovation 3. Strategy execution
generate strategic
ideas make strategic
decisions make strategy
work
Mega trends
in fact, megatrends could potentially transform many areas of your business…
external
internal
new competitors
new business models
new needs of customers
new customer segments
new talents and competencies
new marketing mix
new ecosystems new go-to-
market models new production
processes
megatrends
…and there are plenty megatrends to take into account…
how to assess the impact of megatrends on your company and draw meaningful
conclusions for your business strategy
here‟s a simple process to assess the impact of megatrends on your company:
#2 discuss Megatrends internally
#3 draw conclusions and recommendations
#4 Communicate results internally and externally
#1 identify Megatrends to discuss
Mega trends
but the devil is in the detail…
guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company
Mega trends
• don’t select (solely) trends with an obvious impact on your industry or company… the most successful ideas for innovation will come from elsewhere;
• get your ideas and selection from a combination of internal (survey) and external (consultants) input;
• generate 50 ideas for megatrends, select 20 to discuss.
guidelines for discussing trends in your company
• Invite people with different background, functions and seniority
• follow a discussion template (though don’t stick to it);
• take notes during the discussion;
• 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per trend;
• also look at anti-trends;
• keep it fun !
guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trends discussions
• segment the trends so as to show which ones need action or a close monitoring
• map the way megatrends impact your customer segments and stakeholders
guidelines for communicating the conclusions of the megatrends exercise
• Set up different documents dependent on
target group and aim:
long-term shifts do have a short term effect… prepare your business
now!
website www.i4fi.com blog www.fredericdemeyer.com mail [email protected] Phone +32 478 68 13 08
do you want to use megatrend assessments to ensure the future success of your company? Get some help…
° thought-provoking opening keynote for your strategic planning session
° train you on how to manage a megatrend exercise in your company
° assist you all the way in conducting an in-house megatrend exercise
° audit your business in how future-proof you –and your competitors- are in the
light of megatrends
discover more… … in depth coverage of the impact of 20 megatrends on
industries and companies; … more than 10 case studies … full details and best practices on the megatrend-exercise
Available in Dutch at Die Keure Business & Economics publishers www.business-economics.be ISBN: 978 90 4861 210 9
English version available on Amazon.com in December (send me an e-mail at [email protected] if you want to get notified when the book becomes available)
“Frederic offers a unique insight of how global changes translate into new business opportunities. This book is an essential tool for any future-oriented manager or entrepreneur, and anyone who is involved in innovation strategies.” Philippe De Ridder, co-founder, Board of Innovation "It's a challenge to design a great strategy. In an world with constant information overload, leaders have to learn to separate the core from the noise. Megatrends will help you get this job done. This book will give you all necessary insights to identify those themes that are crucial for the future of your company. A must read!” Jeroen De Flander, co-founder, The Performance Factory, author of “Strategy Execution Heroes” “Looking at the future with an open mind is an essential ingredient of leadership. This book has the merit of enabling this competence in a very pragmatic way. The reality is too complex and dynamic to leave it to specialized bureaus and top management to deal with. Sustainable companies have all their employees aligned to a common view of the future” Koen Marichal, Director The Future Leadership Initiative, Antwerp Management School “This book is an excellent overview of the major trends, but on top of that offers a methodology to better assess the future reality and master its consequences. The author provides an essential guideline for any strategy exercise” Peter Corijn, Vice-President, Procter & Gamble “A clear and comprehensible summary of the major trends that makes you think about adapting your corporate strategy to the new reality” Ralph Van Lysebeth, Country Manager, Packard Bell
Preliminary reactions to the book:
Available
in English
as from
November
“The impact of megatrends on your company”