megatrends: six forces shaping our present and future lives

SIXGlobal societal megatrends

www.steria.noSIX FORCES FORCES

*Shaping our present and future lives*

© Steria

*Population growth. New technology. Unlimited choice. Information explosion. Freedom to connect. Resource depletion.

The forces shaping our present and future

Global societal megatrends Spanning hundreds of years Will affect life in all areas For many years to come

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change2© Photo:

The six forces

Population growth New technology Unlimited choicePopulation growth

1New technology

2Unlimited choice

31 2 3Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion

4 5 6www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change305/05/2010

Understanding our complex world is simple


You just have to observe it…

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From a distance…

Earth at nightNASA satellite Photo


NASA satellite Photo

© Photo: DMSP and NASA

Over time…

100 years of ups and downs 1000100 years of ups and downs on the American Stock ExchangeSource: Dow Jones Industrial Average

1000

1000Trend line

100

10


And the big waves of change will be obvious

The Agricultural Revolution (late 17th Century) The Industrial Revolution (late 18th Century) The Digital Revolution (late 19th Century) Coming: The Evolution Revolution (20st Century)


Let’s go way, way back in time


Once upon a time…


Life was really simple…


Humans hunted…


Gathered food…


Fought disasters and diseases


Life continued like that for…


200.000 years

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change16Photo by Tom Heldal

Then something happened…


It was a revolutionary point


In the history of humankind

Late 17th. century


Humans began to cultivate food crops

The Agricultural Revolution started

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change20© Photo: Masterfile (Martin Ruegner

The most basic need could now be satisfied

FOODFOOD


Historians call it the Dawn of Civilization


Life exploded


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Population growthp g

© Steria© PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Alan Schein Photography

It has been the main force of change

New technology Unlimited choicePopulation growth New technology

2Unlimited choice

3Population growth



Population growth

10

9From 1 to 6 billion people Year 20409 billion

8

7

6 PEO

PLEin just 200 years

Year 20096,8 billion

9 billion

6

543 LL

ION

S O

F

1

3

2 BIL

Year 18041 billion people


Explosive growth in people…


Triggered explosive growth in all areas

Creative

Social

Creative

Technical

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change28© PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Alan Schein Photography

More people meant more ideas…


More inventions


It was the second revolutionary point in time


The Industrial Revolution


Year

© Photo: Masterfile / Roy Ooms

It fuelled rapid economic progress

Growth in World Domestic Product 30G o t o d o est c oduct25

20 s

Source: Angus Maddison ”Monitoring the World Economy (OECD, 1995)

20

15

lion

dolla

rs

10

5

Trill

0

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change33© Photo: Masterfile / Roy Ooms

“Global economic activity (GDP) has increased by “a factor of 40 since the start of the Industrial Revolution.”

– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2001Emissions Scenarios, 2001


Dramatic increase in production capacity

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change35© Photo: Scanpix / NYT / Matthew Holst

It accelerated technological development


That brings us to the 2nd. force of change

Population growth Unlimited choiceNew technologyPopulation growth

1Unlimited choice

3New technology

21 32Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion


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New technologyNew technology© Steria

© Photo: AFP / Mario Tama

Agri-technology


© Photo: Scanpix / Camera Press / NCNA

Robotics-technology


Energy- and nuclear technology

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change41© Photo: Masterfile (Dale Sanders)

Bio-technology

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change42© Photo: PhotoDisc

Nano-technology


Information-technology

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change44© Photo: Masterfile / Glen Wexler

One development has meant more than anything else…


The transistor and integrated circuit


Rate of development that defies the imagination

The first transistor invented in 1947 could be held in your hand

Hundreds of the latest* transistors fit on the surface of a red blood cell

The price of one of these is 1 millionth the price of a transistor in 1968

If car prices had fallen at the same rate, a new car today would cost about 1 cent

Morgan Sparks, the man who turned the earliest transistor into a practical device

*P f I t l


*Penryn from Intel

Technology makes us more productive


We can invent and produce a lot more ”stuff”


That brings us to the 3rd. force of change

New technologyPopulation growth Unlimited choiceNew technology

2Population growth

1Unlimited choice

321 3Information explosion Freedom to connect Resource depletion


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Unlimited choice

© Steria

Unlimited choice

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change52© Photo: Photo: #11 – SwakopmundLink: http://www.flickr.com/photos/opeyre/455591380/

Three examples:


Unlimited choice of groceries

1920: Typical grocery store 1960: Typical supermarket1920: Typical grocery store 1960: Typical supermarket


Unlimited choice of groceries

2004: Typical supermarket (just the fruit and vegetable section)2004: Typical supermarket (just the fruit and vegetable section)

The number of products carried by an average US supermarket has more than tripled since 1980,from 15,000 to 50,000S


Source: Food Marketing Institute 2004

Unlimited choice of TV-channels and media

Average number of TV-channels per home in the USAverage number of TV channels per home in the US

1960

62008

118Source: Nielsen Media

R h 2008 / B i

6 118Research, 2008 / Business Week, The Vanishing Mass

Market, 2004

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change56© Photo: Gorilla / Miia Saastamoinen

Unlimited choice of cars

1908 20091908 2009


Some more evidence…


Worldwide patent activities

A doubling of total world patent filings in 20 years▬ 1985: ~ 884,000 ▬ 2006: ~ 1 76 million▬ 2006: 1.76 million

Japan, the USA, Korea, Germany and China accounted for 76 % of the total patent filings


Growth in worldwide patent activities

Patent filings in leading economies 450,000JapanPatent filings in leading economies

Source: World Patent Report – A Statistical Review (2008)

300 000 gs

Japan

300,000

ber o

f fili

ng

USA

150,000

Num

b

Europe

China

0


We are approaching the age of 100 million products and services to choose from


Freedom or overload?

The debate goes on...

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change62© Photo: Photo: #11 – Pecado venialhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/paco_calvino/509970213/

The debate goes on...

Something else is growing fast…


www.steria.no

InformationInformation

© Steria© Photo: Scanpix / Masterfile

The 4th. force of change

Unlimited choiceNew technologyPopulation growth Unlimited choice

3New technology

2Population growth

1 321Freedom to connect Resource depletionInformation explosion

5 64www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change6505/05/2010

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Information explosionInformation explosion


www.steria.no


That brings us to the third revolutionary point in time


The Digital Revolution

Size of circles indicate amount information produced worldwide

Sources: (1) The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, March 2008, An IDC White Paper - sponsored by EMC(2) How Much Information?, UC Berkeley School ofUC Berkeley School of Information Management and systems, 2003


“More information will be created in the next three years than in the history of time.”

– Berkley School of Information Management, 2002

The The explodingexplodingexplodingexploding

digitaldigitaluniverseuniverseuniverseuniverse

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change70© Photo: Masterfile / Rick Fischer

Many feel overloaded

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change71© Photo: Masterfile

Historians call it…

the Information Agewww.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change72

© Photo:

A real change in human ecology

All of a sudden almost“ All of a sudden, almost every aspect of life around the world is being recorded and “

gstored in some information format. That's a real change in

”our human ecology.”

– Peter Lyman, professor emeritus at UC Berkeley's School of Information


The amount of information produced…


Is directly linked to how connected we are

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change75© Photo: Masterfile / Bill Frymire

Now, let’s look at this


The 5th. force of change


3New technology

2Population growth

1 321Information explosion Resource depletionFreedom to connect


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F d t tFreedom to connect© Steria

© Photo:

Across the globe

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change79© Photo: Maskot Singles

Cross border exchange of goods

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change80© Photo: Masterfile / R. Ian Lloyd

Cross border exchange of people

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change81© Photo: Luth / Photographers Choice

Cross border exchange of culture


Cross border exchange of capital

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change83© Photo: Corbis / Alan Schein Photography

And especially this…


Cross border exchange of information


Today, we can connect with blinding speed


Easier than ever before


With the Internet and the Web as the platform

A map of the global A map of the global Internet▬ 700 million computers

connected in a network of networks


Source: MIT's Technology Review, Mapping the internetSource: MIT's Technology Review, Mapping the internet

Everyone and everything is inextricably linked


We have instant worldwide reach

With j t f k t kWith just a few keystrokesAnd Social Media tools like:

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change90© Photo: Photographers Choice

It means that things spread


Farther and faster than ever


The good stuff

Democratization (voting right is key)

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change93© Photo: PhotoDisc

Democratization (voting right is key)

The good stuff

Democratization60

Number of nations 1800-2003 scoring 8 or higher on Polity IV scale, a measure of democracy

60

50

40

30

Scor

e

10

20

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change94Source: The Polity IV project. Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratization

But also the really bad stuff


Now, let’s look at this…


The 6th. driver for change


3New technology

2Population growth

1 321Freedom to connectInformation explosion Resource depletion


Natural resourcesNatural resourcesare being depleted at record rates

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 100 Six forces of change

2xEarths’2xEarthsBy 2050 we will be using TWICE as many naturalTWICE as many natural resources as the Earth

can replenish.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change101SOURCE: WWF, A roadmap for a lving planet, 2009 © PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis

I th t 40In the next 40 years the pressure on Earth’s ecosystemswill increase dramaticallywill increase dramatically

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Climate change102

200%200%World demand for energy is expected to more than DOUBLE.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change103SOURCE: European Comission, World Energy Technology Outlook to 2050, 2007 © PHOTO: Scanpix / Folio / Tor LindbergPLACE: Chicago

300%300%The number of cars in the world is expected to TRIPLE.p

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change104SOURCE: 50 by 50: Global Fuel Economy Initiative, 2009: FIA Foundation, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), International Energy Agency, International Transport Forum (ITF) © PHOTO: Pixtal

400%The size of the world economy

(GDP) is expected to QUADRUPLE.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change105SOURCE: European Comission, World Energy Technology Outlook to 2050, jan. 2007 © PHOTO: Masterfile / R. Ian Lloyd PLACE: Ship near harbor in Singapore

Parts of the world will grow and PROSPER.


1 5 billion1,5 billionProjected population in China.

China is expected to become the world's LARGEST economy.China is expected to become the world s LARGEST economy.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change107SOURCE: Goldman Sachs, The N-11: More Than an Acronym" - Goldman Sachs study of N11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007. © PHOTO: AFP / Liu Jin

1 6 billion1,6 billionProjected population in India.j p p

India is expected to become the THIRD largest economy in the world.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change108SOURCE: Goldman Sachs, The N-11: More Than an Acronym" - Goldman Sachs study of N11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007. © PHOTO: Reuters / Stringer / India

Other parts of the world will be DEVASTATED.


CrudeOver the past 50 years,

we have changed ecosystems more extensively than in any period in human history.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change110SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, 2005 © PHOTO: Scanpix / AFP / David BoilyPLACE: Oil-sand field in Canada

90%90%of the large fish in the seas have been plundered.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change111SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 © PHOTO: Unknown

75%75%of the natural ecosystems on which we depend y p

have already been degraded.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change112SOURCE: WWF, A roadmap for a lving planet, 2009 © PHOTO: Luth / Fancy

50%50%of all the forests that once covered the Earth, ,

have been cleared for farmland and urban development.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change113SOURCE: World Resources Institute, World Resources 1998–99 © PHOTO: Luth / Fancy

25%25% of all species is heading for extinction.for extinction.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change114SOURCE: Wildlife in a changing world, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), 2008 EVENT: Seabird caught in fishnet

The competition for FOOD, WATER, LAND and ENERGY will intensify.


As we keep CROWDING the Earth.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change116EVENT: Earth at night © PHOTO: DMSP and NASA

In ever growing METROPOLISESIn ever growing METROPOLISES

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change117PLACE: Chicago © PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis / Robert Llewellyn

The KEY point is…


UnsustainableThe fashion and speed in which we keep exploiting Earth,

is simply unsustainable in the long term


© PHOTO: Scanpix / Corbis

Food-shortages and malnutrition is striking already hard-hit areas.


www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change121EVENT: Food Crisis in Kolkata, West Bengal, India © PHOTO: Scanpix / ZUMA press

2 billion2 billionpeople are already affected by water scarcity.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change122SOURCE: World Resource Institute, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 © PHOTO: Scanpix / ReutersEVENT: Water crisis in Wangcheng county, central China, July 2007

Up to 25% of the world’s food production“world s food production may become lost due to environmental breakdown by 2050 unless action is taken.”

– UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) ,The Environmental g ) ,Food Crisis – The Environment's Role in Averting Future Food Crises, 2009


Mass MIRGRATION is inevitable.


MigrationMigration

Damage from climate change forces people to leave hard-hit rural areas to seek better conditions in already over-crowded cities.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change125© PHOTO: ScanpixPLACE: India

1 billi1 billionare currently living as slum dwellersare currently living as slum dwellers

in the developing world’s cities.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change126SOURCE: World Bank, World Development Report 2009 "Reshaping Economic Geography © PHOTO: GettyPLACE: Lagos in Nigeria

200 million200 millionEstimated number of climate refugees by 2050.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change127SOURCE: Synthesis Report, Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions, 2009

So, please dear friend…


Help to create a sustainable world

And safeguard our future


We now have an UNIQUE chance.

To be more creative than ever before.To totally rethink and redesign our lives:

- How we get and use energy.Ho e ork and li e- How we work and live.

- How we make things.

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change130© Photo: Scanpix / Reuters

To sum it all up


Our lives are undergoing dramatic changes

Population growth New technology Unlimited choicePopulation growth

1New technology

2Unlimited choice



Now, to the big question…


What to do


Life and people has dramatically changedduring the last 200 years


Pace of change is faster


The more complexity

that is created, the easier it “is for more complexity to emerge. Whether we like it or not the pace of change isor not, the pace of change is going to keep increasing.”

– Peter Russel, M.A., D.C.S., F.S.P.www.peterrussel.com


Luckily we have a superior capability…


To adapt and evolve


That brings us to the fourth revolutionary point in time


The evolution revolution

Leading anthropologists are convinced that humans are evolving

www.steria.no© Photo: Masterfile / Scott Tysick

05.05.2010 145 Six forces of change

First, let’s get rid of a misconception…


Human evolution stopped a long time ago

STOPSTOP For most of the last century, the received wisdom in y,

the social sciences has been that human evolution stopped a long time ago


Wrong! It never stopped

Human beings are continuing to evolve as our genes g g grespond to rapid changes in the world around us


Human evolution didn't stop when anatomically modern humans appeared out f Af i It t d ”of Africa. It never stopped.”

– Henry Harpending anthropologists and– Henry Harpending, anthropologists and author of "The 10,000 Year Explosion”


Our evolution has recently“ Our evolution has recently accelerated by around 100-fold. A key reason is the “

yenormous growth of the world's population, which multiplies the

fsize of the gene pool available to launch new varieties.”

– John Hawks, assistant professor of anthropology, University of Wisconsin-Madison””


The pace of change has

been so rapid that humans “have changed significantly in body and mind over recorded history Several hundred athistory. Several hundred at least, maybe over a thousand genes are currently evolving.”g y g

– Henry Harpending, anthropologists and author of "The 10 000 Year Explosion”author of "The 10,000 Year Explosion”


Just look at the generational differences…


Veterans MillennialsGen XersBaby boomersVeteransborn before 1946 born after 1980

Gen Xersborn 1965 - 1980

Baby boomersborn 1946 - 1964

U d b id d Conformity Conservatism Traditional family

values

Experimental Individualism Free spirited Social cause

Used to be guided Want work/life

balance Independent

Technically savvy Multitasking Mix fun and work Heightened fearsvalues

Loyal Frugal

oriented Question authority

Informal Entrepreneurial

Values security and safety

High change tolerance


The only constant I am “ ysure of is this accelerating pace of change.”“

– From the song Downside Up b P t G b i l (1950 )by Peter Gabriel (1950- ), British Rock Musician


© Photo: Scanpix / Heritage / Jewish Chronical

“ Our evolutionary lineage is marked by mastery of change“mastery of change. In our time, the pace is quickening.”q g

– Carl Sagan (1934 –1996) astronomer astrochemistastronomer, astrochemist

www.steria.no 05.05.2010 Six forces of change156© Photo: Michael Okoniewski

The adaptive imperative


It is not the strongest of the species thatIt is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.”

– Charles Darwin, Origin of the Species, 1859


Acknowledgements

There are a lot of great presentations, books and articles on Anthropology, Social Psychology and Megatrends available on theweb. A few in particular were noteworthy inspirations for this presentation, including:

The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution (Hardcover) by Gregory Cochran (Author), Henry Harpending, Basic Books (January 26, 2009), ISBN-10: 0465002218 Link: http://the10000yearexplosion.com/

Global Imperatives — The Accelerating Pace of Change: From Strategy to Execution, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Copyright 2008, ISBN 978-3-540-71879-6 (Print) 978-3-540-71880-2

Modern life's pressures may be hastening human evolution, By Robert S. Boyd, McClatchy Newspapers Modern life s pressures may be hastening human evolution, By Robert S. Boyd, McClatchy NewspapersLink: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/staff/robert_boyd/story/65737.html

Why megatrends matter, Futureorientation, May 2006, Copenhagen Institue for Future StudiesLink: http://www.cifs.dk/scripts/artikel.asp?id=1469

The Greatest Century That Ever Was: 25 Miraculous Trends of the Past 100 Years, by Stephen Moore and Julian L. SimonLink: http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa364.pdf

Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update Donella Meadows Jorgen Randers & Dennis Meadows Chelsea Green 2004 Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update, Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers & Dennis Meadows, Chelsea Green, 2004http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth

The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, Mar. 2008, IDC White Paper - sponsored by EMC Link http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/expanding-digital-universe.htm

How Much Information?, UC Berkeley School of Information Management and systems, 2003Link: http://www2.sims.berkeley.edu/research/projects/how-much-info-2003/

When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing? Sheena S Iyengar Columbia University & Mark R When Choice is Demotivating: Can One Desire Too Much of a Good Thing? Sheena S. Iyengar, Columbia University & Mark R. Lepper Stamford university. http://www.columbia.edu/~ss957/whenchoice.html

The history of the Integrated Circuit, www.Nobleprize.orgLink: http://nobelprize.org/educational_games/physics/integrated_circuit/history/index.html


Recommended books


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Anders LindgrenAnders Lindgrenmarketing director, Steria ASwww.steria.no

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