Using Data for ProfitInternational Builders Show January 14, 2011

• Paul Emrath

• VP-Survey and Housing Policy Research

NAHB Web Site

• Some data available by subscription

• Substantial amount free

– Basic national data. Some relevant for local markets

– Forecasts / local versions

– Special studies summarize data from Census, other

sources

– Section to help fight anti-growth measures, or get

projects approved (priced-out, jobs impact)

Current Previous

Housing Starts (12/16) 555 Th 534 Th

Building Permits (12/16) 530 Th 552 Th

HMI (12/15) 16 16

New Sales (11/24) 283 Th 308 Th

Existing Sales (11/23) 4.43 M 4.53 M

Home Prices - New (11/24) $194.9 Th $223.8 Th

Home Prices - Existing (11/23) $170.7 Th $171.5 Th

30-yr Fixed (12/10) 4.61% 4.46%

1-yr ARM (12/10) 3.27% 3.25%

Housing Stats on Dashboard

F

F

F

L

*

F=free NAHB forecast available, L=free local data available,

* =related info for new & existing combined in HOI tables

*

NAHB Web Site

• Once past dashboard, look under…

• .

– Economic Forecasts from NAHB (1 page free)

– Construction Statistics

– NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index

– HousingEconomics.com (for special studies)

– Housing’s Economic Impact

Free page on housing & interest rate forecast

Interest rates don’t vary much with location

– Mortgage rates impact demand

– Construction loans often tied to prime

Housing and Interest Rate Forecast, 12/23/2010

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Housing Activity (000)

Total Housing Starts 1,812 1,342 900 554 589 708 1,063

Single Family 1,474 1,036 616 442 475 575 860

Multifamily 338 306 284 112 114 133 203

New Single Family Sales 1,049 769 482 374 321 405 605

Existing Single-Family Home Sales 5,712 4,959 4,338 4,567 4,208 4,450 5,300

Interest Rates

Federal Funds Rate 5.25% 4.25% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 0.13% 1.00%

90 day T Bill Rate 4.85% 4.47% 1.39% 0.15% 0.14% 0.15% 1.05%

Treasury Yields:

One Year Maturity 4.93% 4.52% 1.82% 0.47% 0.32% 0.48% 1.21%

Ten Year Maturity 4.79% 4.63% 3.67% 3.26% 3.22% 3.63% 4.48%

Freddie Mac Commitment Rates:

Fixed Rate Mortgages 6.41% 6.34% 6.04% 5.04% 4.69% 5.14% 6.00%

ARMs 5.53% 5.56% 5.17% 4.71% 3.79% 3.50% 4.28%

Prime Rate 7.96% 8.05% 5.09% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 4.00%

Employment - States and Metro Areas

Employment - Metropolitan Statistical Areas(MSAs)

12/7/2010

MS Excel

Building Permits - States and Metro Areas

An Excel download of the Building Permits for Metropolitan Statistical

Areas(MSAs).

12/7/2010

MS Excel

Framing Lumber Prices

This page documents weekly framing lumber prices per 1,000 board feet from

trusted sources.

12/17/2010

Web page

Local Demand

Local Supply

Cost Conditions

10/31/10 Employment (In thousands)

NONAG EMPLOYEES CIVILIAN EMPLOYEES UNEMPLOYMENT

(Establishment Basis) (Household Basis) RATE

Oct-10 Oct-09 Change Oct-10 Oct-09 Change Oct-10 Oct-09

UNITED STATES 130,462 129,633 0.6% 139,061 138,242 0.6% 9.6 10.1

SOUTH 47,192 46,788 0.9% 50,051 49,770 0.6% 9.2 9.4

SOUTH ATLANTIC 24,807 24,665 0.6% 26,316 26,358 -0.2% 9.8 10.0

FLORIDA 7,216 7,180 0.5% 8,137 8,154 -0.2% 11.9 11.4

Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL 193 193 -0.5% 238 240 -0.5% 13.1 13.6

Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach FL 155 155 0.5% 223 223 0.0% 12.5 12.1

Fort Walton Beach-Crestview -Destin FL - 79 -100.0% 90 91 -0.5% 8.3 7.7

Gainesville FL 128 127 0.6% 128 128 0.1% 8.2 7.8

Jacksonville FL 579 579 0.1% 608 610 -0.3% 11.3 10.9

Lakeland FL 194 194 -0.2% 240 242 -0.5% 12.8 12.5

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach FL 2,174 2,171 0.2% 2,543 2,537 0.2% 11.9 11.0

Naples-Marco Island FL 109 108 0.6% 125 125 -0.1% 12.1 12.4

Ocala FL 90 91 -1.0% 114 116 -1.7% 14.3 14.2

Orlando FL 1,007 997 1.0% 998 993 0.5% 11.5 11.4

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville FL 193 195 -1.0% 235 238 -1.3% 12.1 11.5

Panama City-Lynn Haven FL 73 72 1.1% 82 81 0.7% 11.0 9.8

Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent FL 159 158 0.6% 191 191 0.1% 10.7 10.2

Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce FL 118 118 0.0% 160 161 -0.6% 14.0 13.8

Punta Gorda FL 39 39 0.3% 60 60 0.0% 12.3 12.5

Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice FL - 248 -100.0% 274 274 -0.1% 12.1 12.3

Tallahassee FL 172 171 0.5% 179 179 0.0% 8.3 7.6

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearw ater FL 1,122 1,123 -0.2% 1,148 1,155 -0.6% 12.4 12.1

Vero Beach FL 44 43 0.2% 54 54 -0.2% 14.3 14.3

Employment/Unemployment:

Year-Over-Year Change

10/31/10 Building Permits By Sta tes and Metro Areas **

All data in thousands

SINGLE-FAMILY MULTIFAMILY TOTAL

YTD YTD YTD YEAR YTD YTD YTD YEAR YTD YTD YTD YEAR

Oct-10 Oct-09 PCT CHG 2009 Oct-10 Oct-09 PCT CHG 2009 Oct-10 Oct-09 PCT CHG 2009

UNITED STATES 386.6 369.3 5% 435.1 124.3 113.7 9% 137.1 510.9 483.0 6% 572.2

SOUTH 201.0 194.3 3% 228.7 53.6 53.7 0% 63.6 254.5 248.0 3% 292.4

SOUTH ATLANTIC 99.9 92.2 8% 108.9 25.7 26.4 -2% 32.2 125.6 118.6 6% 141.1

FLORIDA 27.00 23.04 17% 27.46 6.86 6.46 6% 8.40 33.86 29.49 15% 35.86

* Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL 1.04 0.78 34% 0.91 0.07 0.04 87% 0.04 1.11 0.82 36% 0.94

* Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach FL 0.56 0.57 -1% 0.66 0.07 0.07 -4% 0.08 0.63 0.64 -1% 0.74

Fort Walton Beach-Crestview -Destin FL 0.31 0.21 48% 0.26 - - - - 0.31 0.21 48% 0.26

Gainesville FL 0.28 0.28 -1% 0.37 0.11 0.12 -9% 0.15 0.39 0.40 -3% 0.51

* Jacksonville FL 3.05 2.78 9% 3.32 0.18 1.32 -86% 1.34 3.23 4.11 -21% 4.66

* Lakeland FL 1.03 0.98 4% 1.14 0.12 - - - 1.15 0.98 17% 1.14

* Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach FL 2.74 1.88 46% 2.27 2.35 1.34 76% 1.34 5.10 3.21 59% 3.61

* Naples-Marco Island FL 0.62 0.50 24% 0.63 0.46 0.29 55% 0.31 1.08 0.80 35% 0.94

* Ocala FL 0.43 0.31 40% 0.37 - 0.03 -100% 0.03 0.43 0.33 29% 0.40

* Orlando FL 3.69 3.07 20% 3.71 0.79 0.75 5% 0.78 4.48 3.83 17% 4.49

* Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville FL 0.86 0.70 23% 0.89 0.10 0.10 -4% 0.12 0.96 0.80 20% 1.01

Panama City-Lynn Haven FL 0.17 0.21 -18% 0.25 0.11 0.09 20% 0.09 0.28 0.30 -7% 0.34

* Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent FL 1.19 0.83 43% 0.96 0.42 0.07 481% 0.08 1.61 0.90 78% 1.04

* Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce FL 0.39 0.31 28% 0.38 0.04 0.06 -26% 0.06 0.44 0.37 19% 0.44

* Punta Gorda FL 0.22 0.24 -7% 0.28 0.14 0.02 700% 0.02 0.36 0.26 39% 0.30

* Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice FL 1.51 1.08 40% 1.32 0.24 0.24 3% 0.45 1.75 1.31 33% 1.76

Tallahassee FL 0.48 0.57 -15% 0.64 0.21 0.14 45% 0.16 0.69 0.71 -3% 0.80

* Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearw ater FL 3.78 3.35 13% 3.93 1.16 1.55 -25% 3.08 4.94 4.90 1% 7.01

* Vero Beach FL 0.26 0.24 7% 0.28 - - - 0.05 0.26 0.24 7% 0.33

Single- and Multi-family Permits:

Year-to-Date compared to Previous Year

NAHB/Wells Fargo HOI History

Price / Income / Affordability by Metro Area

Special Studies in

HousingEconomics.com

HousingEconomics.com

Mostly a Subscription Site

But Special Studies are Free to All

Characteristics of Single-Family Homes Started in 2009

Special Studies, October 7, 2010 By Paul Emrath, Ph.D. Vice President for

Survey and Housing Policy Research

Web page

Characteristics of New and First-Time Home Buyers

Special Studies, September 1, 2010 By Heather Taylor Senior Research

Associate Economics & Housing Policy

Web page

A Snapshot of Local Housing Markets

Special Studies, June 3, 2010 By Paul Emrath, Ph.D. Vice President for

Survey and Housing Policy Research

Web page

Breaking Down House Price and Construction Costs

Special Studies, March 5, 2010 By Paul Emrath, Ph.D, Vice President for

Survey and Housing Policy Research

Web page

Characteristics of Single-Family Homes Started in 2009

Tabulates data from the

Survey of Construction (U.S. Census Bureau)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1. NE 2. MA 3. ENC 4. WNC 5. SA 6. ESC 7. WSC 8. MT 9. PA

Total starts (000s of units) 1,731 1,465 1,037 627 446 14 30 47 30 103 33 97 40 52

Built for sale/sold 79.2% 76.5% 72.6% 65.3% 66.4% 43.2% 58.5% 43.4% 66.6% 77.3% 59.7% 65.8% 77.4% 73.5%

Contractor built 11.4% 12.9% 14.4% 17.2% 18.6% 28.9% 24.9% 28.0% 16.3% 13.4% 20.8% 22.1% 14.1% 10.6%

Owner built 7.5% 8.1% 10.0% 12.0% 11.4% 22.0% 11.4% 23.2% 13.1% 7.2% 15.3% 8.9% 6.8% 10.8%

Built for rent 1.9% 2.5% 3.0% 5.5% 3.6% 5.9% 5.2% 5.4% 4.0% 2.1% 4.2% 3.2% 1.7% 5.1%

Median square footage 2,253 2,268 2,227 2,170 2,100 2,019 2,330 2,059 1,894 2,263 1,900 2,043 2,084 2,092

Avg no. bathrooms 2.25 2.25 2.27 2.22 2.20 1.91 2.21 2.10 2.09 2.29 2.17 2.17 2.19 2.28

Avg no. bedrooms 3.35 3.34 3.32 3.27 3.28 3.05 3.41 3.16 3.08 3.34 3.21 3.29 3.29 3.42

Median lot size (sq.ft.) 10,000 10,000 10,400 10,875 10,220 43,560 20,000 19,206 11,036 11,500 17,523 7,868 7,400 6,600

Median sales price ($000)* $241 $256 $250 $228 $211 $293 $280 $180 $190 $216 $158 $168 $225 $298

Median lot value ($000)* $40 $43 $42 $40 $40 $80 $53 $39 $39 $40 $31 $30 $50 $75

Median contract price ($000)^ $170 $141 $150 $155 $147 $160 $148 $225 $200 $175 $133 $70 $142 na

Share with

Basement (full or partial) 29.3 28.0 29.3 28.8 29.2 89.6 70.9 62.6 83.4 14.8 23.8 0.3 44.6 2.6

Finished basement 6.1 6.1 6.6 6.9 6.9 12.5 7.0 11.5 25.7 6.3 5.0 0.3 12.6 1.5

3+ car garage 19.4 18.3 18.4 17.3 15.8 7.6 12.4 27.5 36.0 6.4 8.7 11.9 26.3 20.7

2009: By Census Division

Table 1. Characteristics of New Single-Family Homes Started

U.S.

Characteristics of Single-Family Homes Started in 2009Analyzes new Information First Collected by the Census Bureau in 2009, e.g.

16.9

24.8

29.7

39.6

62.5

44.1

50.5

69.9

39.9

New England

Middle Atlantic

East North Central

West North Central

South Atlantic

East South Central

West South Central

Mountain Pacific

Source: NAHB tabulations of Survey of Construction, US Census Bureau, Single-Family units started in 2009.

Figure 5. Share of Homes in a Community or

Home Owners Association by Census Division

Overall: 47.6%

Characteristics of New and First-Time Home Buyers

Tabulates data from the

American Housing Survey (HUD/Census Bureau).

New HomesExisting

Homes

First-Time

Buyers

Trade-up

Buyers

Number of Households 1,409,292 6,991,651 3,420,180 4,980,763 8,400,943 62,677,784

Type of Buyer

Previous Owners 69 57 100 59 100

First-time Buyer 31 43 100 41

Household Income

Under $20,000 6 10 9 9 9 13

$20,000 to $39,999 Income 13 17 19 14 16 18

$40,000 to $59,999 Income 13 19 21 15 18 17

$60,000 to $79,999 Income 16 16 19 14 16 14

$80,000 to $99,999 Income 16 12 13 12 13 11

$100,000 to $199,999 Income 27 21 16 26 22 21

More than $200,000 Income 9 5 2 9 6 6

Median $80,600 $64,500 $60,000 $76,000 $67,000 $61,500

Mean $101,811 $81,623 $67,342 $97,140 $85,009 $79,830

TABLE 1. CHARACTERISTICS OF HOME BUYERS

(Percentage of Respondents)

HomebuyersHomebuyers

All BuyersNon-moving

Owners

Characteristics of New and First-Time Home Buyers

Analyzes Home Buyer Trends, e.g.,

Average Household Size

Source: NAHB tabulation of data from the 2009 American Housing Survey, Department of Housing and Urban Development

and the U.S. Census Bureau.

2.82

2.912.95

2.9

2.75

2.87

2.76 2.732.72

2.58

2.842.79 2.78

2.74

2.66

2.65 2.64 2.642.61

2.63

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

New Homes First-Time Buyers All Buyers Non-moving Owners

Snapshot of Local Housing Markets

Compiles local data from the

American Community Survey (U.S. Census Bureau).

# rank % rank % rank $ rank $ rank

Orlando-Kissimmee, FL MSA 504,313 28 4.3 298 81.6 275 232,200 95 60,176 200

Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA 44,411 252 3.1 246 91.0 53 145,900 225 66,713 110

Owensboro, KY MSA 32,493 313 4.5 305 88.2 130 96,500 358 49,232 348

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-

Ventura, CA MSA 170,236 92 1.6 68 81.7 270 566,200 8 96,512 11

Palm Bay-Melbourne-

Titusville, FL MSA 163,647 95 4.9 320 79.0 303 193,900 133 56,374 261

Palm Coast, FL MSA 28,753 342 . . 89.4 96 221,600 105 53,688 299

Panama City-Lynn Haven, FL

MSA 45,563 247 2.8 227 74.4 339 179,900 151 51,268 326

Parkersburg-Marietta-

Vienna, WV-OH MSA 50,022 230 1.3 37 89.8 84 102,700 341 50,843 332

Pascagoula, MS MSA 43,653 255 3.5 273 84.6 214 130,200 265 59,485 212

Median Income of

Home OwnersMetropolitan Area

Owner-Occupied

Housing Units

Homeowner

Vacancy Rate

Percent Single-

Family Detached

Median Home

Value

Snapshot of Local Housing Markets

Shows Top Metros in Each Category, e.g.,

Lowest Homeowner Vacancy Rates in Large Markets (Metro Areas with At Least 500,000 Home Owners)

1. Nassau-Suffolk, NY Metro Div: 1.40%

2. Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA Metro Div 1.72%

3. Philadelphia, PA Metro Div 1.75%

4. Baltimore-Towson, MD MSA 1.88%

5. Edison-New Brunswick, NJ Metro Div 2.02%

6. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA Metro Div 2.03%

7. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 2.07%

8. New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ Metro Div 2.15%

9. St. Louis, MO-IL MSA 2.22%

10. Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA MSA 2.25% Source: 2008 American Community Survey summary fi les , U.S. Census Bureau.

Breaking Down House Price and Construction Costs

From an NAHB Builder Survey

Average Lot Size: 21,879 sq ft

Average Finished Area: 2,716 sq ft

Sales Price Breakdown Average Share of Price

A. Finished Lot Cost (including financing cost)* $76,591 20.3%

B. Total Construction Cost 222,511 58.9

C. Financing Cost 6,375 1.7

D. Overhead and General Expenses 20,377 5.4

E. Marketing Cost 5,297 1.4

F. Sales Commission 12,815 3.4

G. Profit 33,658 8.9

Total Sales Price $377,624 100.0%

Construction Cost Breakdown AverageShare of

Constr. CostBuilding Permit Fees $4,264 1.9%

Impact Fee 3,165 1.4

Water and Sewer Inspection 3,761 1.7

Excavation, Foundation, and Backfill 15,878 7.1

Steel 1,637 0.7

Framing and Trusses 34,805 15.6

Table 1. SINGLE-FAMILY PRICE AND COST BREAKDOWNS

2009 National Results

Breaking Down House Price and Construction Costs

Analyzes Trends from Previous NAHB Surveys, e.g.,

0.9%

1.3%

0.8%

1.7%1.9%

1.0%

1.4%1.2%

1.6% 1.7%1.8%

2.5% 2.6%2.8%

3.2%

1998 2002 2004 2007 2009

Figure 3. Selected Items as a Share of Total Construction Costs

Building Permit Fees

Water and Sewer Insp.

Landscaping and Sodding

Households Priced-Out by Higher House Prices and Interest Rates Web page

The Local Economic Impact of Home BuildingWeb page

When confronting anti-growth measures or trying to get a project approved, see…

Metro Area

Median

new home

price

Income

needed to

qualify

Number of

households

Households

priced out

Orlando-Kissimmee, FL MSA $338,450 $99,637 745,070 986

Oshkosh-Neenah, WI MSA $312,025 $91,858 66,482 101

Owensboro, KY MSA $129,894 $38,240 45,738 157

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA MSA $399,713 $117,673 252,679 337

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL MSA $278,611 $82,021 218,052 298

Panama City-Lynn Haven, FL MSA $181,794 $53,519 69,342 197

Parkersburg-Marietta-Vienna, WV-OH MSA $136,750 $40,258 68,796 202

Pascagoula, MS MSA $212,029 $62,420 56,996 122

Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL MSA $178,587 $52,575 169,429 446

Peoria, IL MSA $191,330 $56,326 148,079 430

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA $410,290 $120,786 2,166,166 2,113

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA $371,894 $109,483 1,416,169 1,130

Pine Bluff, AR MSA $136,279 $40,120 39,615 137

Pittsburgh, PA MSA $221,064 $65,080 992,707 2,063

Pittsfield, MA MSA $365,348 $107,556 54,580 44

Pocatello, ID MSA $163,659 $48,180 31,653 71

Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, FL MSA $255,630 $75,256 154,350 175

Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME MSA $234,427 $69,014 208,124 531

Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA MSA $384,419 $113,170 803,442 707

Households Priced Out of the Market for a Median Priced New Home by a $1,000 Price

Increase

The Local Impact of Home Building in a Typical Metro Area

Income, Jobs, and Taxes Generated

From the Executive Summary:

The Local Impact of Home Building in a Typical Metro Area

Comparing Costs to Revenue for Local Governments

Costs Compared to Revenue: Single-Family Construction

In the first year, 100 single-family homes built in a typical metro area result in an estimated

$2.6 million in tax and other revenue for local governments, $227,000 in current expenditures by local government to provide public services to the net new households at current levels, and

$2.3 million in capital investment for new structures and equipment undertaken by local governments

The analysis assumes that local governments finance the capital investment by borrowing at a current municipal bond rate of 4.40 percent.

In a typical year after the first, the 100 single-family homes result in $743,000 in tax and other revenue for local governments, and $453,000 in local government expenditures needed to continue

providing services at current levels.

The Local Impact of Home Building in a Typical Metro Area

Comparing Costs to Revenue for Local Governments

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

$Million

Year

Figure 1.

Costs Compared to Revenue: Single Family

Cumulative Cost

Cumulative Revenue

$4.0 million

Break Even

This presentation is available on the internet:

www.buildersshow.com/education

Contact

Paul Emrath

VP-Survey and Housing Policy Research

NAHB Economics and Housing Policy Group

1-800-368-5242 x8449

pemrath@nahb.org

Thank You