Use of Prognostic Meteorological Use of Prognostic Meteorological Modeling Data for the Modeling Data for the

CALMET/CALPUFF Modeling CALMET/CALPUFF Modeling System: AlternativesSystem: Alternatives

Bret A. AndersonBret A. AndersonUSEPA Region 7/CenSARA/CENRAPUSEPA Region 7/CenSARA/CENRAP

R/S/L Modelers WorkshopR/S/L Modelers WorkshopMay 18, 2005 New Orleans, LAMay 18, 2005 New Orleans, LA

In the Beginning There WasIn the Beginning There Was……

•• Colorado State University Colorado State University MesoscaleMesoscale Model Model (CSUMM)/SAIMM(CSUMM)/SAIMM

•• Penn State/NCAR MM4Penn State/NCAR MM4•• IrwinIrwin’’s World s World –– use of prognostic use of prognostic

meteorological model products for near meteorological model products for near field and LRT analysis.field and LRT analysis.

And Then There WasAnd Then There Was……

•• CALMET adapted to utilize CSUMM CALMET adapted to utilize CSUMM windfieldswindfields as as either first guess either first guess windfieldwindfield, treatment as , treatment as pseudopseudo--observations, or used as firstobservations, or used as first--step step windfieldwindfield (DWM Mode Only).(DWM Mode Only).

•• CALMET adapted to use MM4 data in same CALMET adapted to use MM4 data in same manner.manner.

•• 1990 MM4 data set on that wonderful CD set 1990 MM4 data set on that wonderful CD set with that all so user friendly extraction program.with that all so user friendly extraction program.

And Finally There WasAnd Finally There Was……

•• MM5 ported to Linux Based PCMM5 ported to Linux Based PC’’s as Version 3.3 (2000s as Version 3.3 (2000--2001)2001)

•• CALMM5 Version 1 requiring the user to convert MM5 CALMM5 Version 1 requiring the user to convert MM5 Version 3 data back to Version 2 Format Data to Version 3 data back to Version 2 Format Data to generate massive ASCII files (MM5.DAT) that allowed generate massive ASCII files (MM5.DAT) that allowed the user to usually only kluge about 2 days together the user to usually only kluge about 2 days together assuming a 4 km domain and also assuming the 2 GB assuming a 4 km domain and also assuming the 2 GB file size limitation on most 32 bit machines.file size limitation on most 32 bit machines.

•• Additional regional scale NCEP prognostic models (1994Additional regional scale NCEP prognostic models (1994--Present) such as RUC and ETA.Present) such as RUC and ETA.

•• The North Dakota SituationThe North Dakota Situation……RUC is introduced as input RUC is introduced as input to CALMET.to CALMET.

•• Consultants such as Consultants such as WindLogicsWindLogics and now Earth Tech are and now Earth Tech are marketing the RUC data for use in LRT modeling studies.marketing the RUC data for use in LRT modeling studies.

North Dakota in the SpotlightNorth Dakota in the Spotlight……

•• North Dakota utilized RUC2 analysis fields for their periodic inNorth Dakota utilized RUC2 analysis fields for their periodic increment.crement.•• Processed through modified 3DVAR package called ADAS (ARPS Data Processed through modified 3DVAR package called ADAS (ARPS Data

Assimilation System).Assimilation System).•• Advanced Regional Prediction System is a stormAdvanced Regional Prediction System is a storm--scale (limited area), nonscale (limited area), non--

hydrostatic meteorological model developed by the Center for thehydrostatic meteorological model developed by the Center for the Analysis Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma. and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) at the University of Oklahoma.

•• Modified ADAS can augment initial RUC field with additional obseModified ADAS can augment initial RUC field with additional observations rvations and then interpolates to desired MM5 grid structure and producesand then interpolates to desired MM5 grid structure and produces MM5.DAT MM5.DAT format data for use in CALMET.format data for use in CALMET.

•• Modified ADAS viewed as intellectual property, thus withheld as Modified ADAS viewed as intellectual property, thus withheld as proprietary.proprietary.

•• This project has resulted in two separate issues:This project has resulted in two separate issues:•• Do we allow the use of proprietary processors, data, or models iDo we allow the use of proprietary processors, data, or models in n

public decision making if the public does not have the opportunipublic decision making if the public does not have the opportunity ty to review and comment?to review and comment?

•• Can alternative meteorological fields such as RUC be used to driCan alternative meteorological fields such as RUC be used to drive ve models such as CALMET?models such as CALMET?

WindLogicsWindLogics RUC2 Processing RUC2 Processing ProcedureProcedure

MM5 TerrainProcessor

Ext2ARPS Processor –ARPS preprocessor

NCEP RUC2 Data

ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS)

Surface/UpperAir Observations

CALMET

(10 km grid cell)

MM5.DAT

Equivalent MM5 ProcedureEquivalent MM5 Procedure

TERRAINPreprocessor (10 km grid)

RUC2 Data

PREGRIDPreprocessor

REGRIDDERPreprocessor(Horizontal Interpolationto MM5 Horizontal Grid Structure)

RAWINS/LITTLE_RObjective AnalysisPackage

Surface/UpperAir Observations

INTERPFPreprocessor(Vertical Interpolationto MM5 Sigma-P Vertical structure)

CALMM5MM5.DATCALMET

MMINPUT_DOMAINXX

Review of Regulatory Requirements Review of Regulatory Requirements Governing Use of Prognostic DataGoverning Use of Prognostic Data

•• A minimum of three (3) years of prognostic model data is requireA minimum of three (3) years of prognostic model data is required (GAQM d (GAQM --Section 9.3.1.2(d))Section 9.3.1.2(d))

•• MesoscaleMesoscale meteorological fields should be used in conjunction with NWS ormeteorological fields should be used in conjunction with NWS orcomparable observations within and near the modeling domain (GAQcomparable observations within and near the modeling domain (GAQM M --Section 9.3.1.2(d))Section 9.3.1.2(d))

•• Acceptability of prognostic data can be established through demoAcceptability of prognostic data can be established through demonstration nstration of statistical comparisons with observations of winds aloft and of statistical comparisons with observations of winds aloft and surface surface locations (GAQM locations (GAQM –– Section 9.3(c))Section 9.3(c))

•• Acceptability of prognostic data is contingent upon approval froAcceptability of prognostic data is contingent upon approval from the m the appropriate review authority (e.g. EPA Regional Office, etc.) (Gappropriate review authority (e.g. EPA Regional Office, etc.) (GAQMAQM--Section 9.3(c))Section 9.3(c))

The Proposed New Paradigm The Proposed New Paradigm ––““AndersonAnderson’’s Worlds World””•• Section 9.3(c) requires use of GAQM requires use of prognostic dSection 9.3(c) requires use of GAQM requires use of prognostic data ata

and available NWS data for and available NWS data for ““blending.blending.””

–– AndersonAnderson’’s Response: Use of 3DVAR in many cases will screen s Response: Use of 3DVAR in many cases will screen errant local observations that would otherwise degrade or errant local observations that would otherwise degrade or destroy the final CALMET destroy the final CALMET windfieldwindfield..

–– AndersonAnderson’’s Response: Use of 3DVAR packages s Response: Use of 3DVAR packages (ADAS/RAWINS/LITTLE_R) with addition of upper air and (ADAS/RAWINS/LITTLE_R) with addition of upper air and surface data satisfies criterion for use of NWS and other surface data satisfies criterion for use of NWS and other available data.available data.

–– AndersonAnderson’’s Response: NOOBS mode s Response: NOOBS mode maymay be used if 3DVAR has be used if 3DVAR has been utilized been utilized ANDAND resolution of input dataset is appropriate for resolution of input dataset is appropriate for region of interest. 80 km MM4/MM5, 36 km MM5, or 40 km RUC region of interest. 80 km MM4/MM5, 36 km MM5, or 40 km RUC would not be appropriate over intermountain West, coastal would not be appropriate over intermountain West, coastal environments, or other areas where complex winds are of environments, or other areas where complex winds are of concernconcern……

Performance EvaluationPerformance Evaluation

•• Section 9.3(c) requires statistical Section 9.3(c) requires statistical comparison of prognostic meteorological comparison of prognostic meteorological fields with surface and upper air fields with surface and upper air observations.observations.–– Question: Who determines what is Question: Who determines what is

appropriate? appropriate? –– Question: What statistical benchmarks are Question: What statistical benchmarks are

used to determine what is appropriate?used to determine what is appropriate?

AndersonAnderson’’s World s World –– Part IIPart II

•• Who determines what is appropriate?Who determines what is appropriate?–– NCARNCAR’’ss response (taken from response (taken from NCARNCAR’’ss MM5 MM5

website): website): •• ““The user should have some experience with The user should have some experience with

numerical modeling of the atmosphere.numerical modeling of the atmosphere.””•• ““The user should have an understanding of The user should have an understanding of

atmospheric science at the MS level.atmospheric science at the MS level.””•• ““The user should have basic UNIX knowledge.The user should have basic UNIX knowledge.””•• ““The user should have basic FORTRAN 77 and 90 The user should have basic FORTRAN 77 and 90

knowledge.knowledge.””

AndersonAnderson’’s World s World –– Part IIIPart III

•• Visual and statistical performance evaluation of prognostic dataVisual and statistical performance evaluation of prognostic data are are essential.essential.

•• Performance evaluation of input data set is necessary Performance evaluation of input data set is necessary beforebefore it is it is processed for and input into CALMET. Only then will you be ableprocessed for and input into CALMET. Only then will you be able to isolate to isolate and identify any performance issues of the input data set. Onceand identify any performance issues of the input data set. Once blended blended with data in CALMET and adjusted for terrain and with data in CALMET and adjusted for terrain and radiationalradiational effects, it is effects, it is not possible to separate all errors due to these adjustments.not possible to separate all errors due to these adjustments.

•• Benchmarks for use of prognostic meteorological data were develoBenchmarks for use of prognostic meteorological data were developed for ped for the TCEQ in 2001 by ENVIRON and have been adopted by the air quathe TCEQ in 2001 by ENVIRON and have been adopted by the air quality lity meteorological modeling community as one set of meteorological modeling community as one set of ““de factode facto”” standards.standards.

–– Standards were based upon review of performance evaluations of Standards were based upon review of performance evaluations of numerous MM5 and RAMS over the last decade or so.numerous MM5 and RAMS over the last decade or so.

–– Not necessarily designed to provide a passing or failing grade, Not necessarily designed to provide a passing or failing grade, but is but is designed to put modeling results into context within other air qdesigned to put modeling results into context within other air quality uality studies and also identify any systemic issues which may exist wistudies and also identify any systemic issues which may exist with th respect to the prognostic model application currently under revirespect to the prognostic model application currently under review. ew.

–– Reference document: Reference document: Enhanced Meteorological Modeling and Enhanced Meteorological Modeling and Performance Evaluation for Two Texas Ozone EpisodesPerformance Evaluation for Two Texas Ozone Episodes

Proposed Performance Benchmarks Proposed Performance Benchmarks from 2001 TCEQ Studyfrom 2001 TCEQ Study

•• Wind Speed Total RMSE: 2.0 Wind Speed Total RMSE: 2.0 m/sm/s•• Wind Speed IOA: 0.6Wind Speed IOA: 0.6•• Wind Direction Gross Error: 20 degreesWind Direction Gross Error: 20 degrees•• Temperature Bias: Temperature Bias: ±±0.5 K0.5 K•• Temperature Gross Error: 2.0 KTemperature Gross Error: 2.0 K•• Temperature IOA: 0.8Temperature IOA: 0.8•• Humidity Bias: Humidity Bias: ±± 1.0 g/kg1.0 g/kg•• Humidity Gross Error: 2 g/kgHumidity Gross Error: 2 g/kg•• Humidity IOA: 0.6Humidity IOA: 0.6

ImplementationImplementation

•• ENVIRON development of FORTRAN 77 based ENVIRON development of FORTRAN 77 based met evaluation program called METSTAT.met evaluation program called METSTAT.

•• METSTAT requires observations in either RAMS METSTAT requires observations in either RAMS Ralph2 format or MM5 Observational Nudging Ralph2 format or MM5 Observational Nudging formatformat

•• NCAR DS472 surface meteorological dataset NCAR DS472 surface meteorological dataset routinely used for evaluation.routinely used for evaluation.–– Kirk Baker (LADCO) and Matthew Johnson (IDNR) Kirk Baker (LADCO) and Matthew Johnson (IDNR)

have adapted and modified preprocessor for DS472 have adapted and modified preprocessor for DS472 data to convert to RALPH2 format.data to convert to RALPH2 format.

Performance Evaluation ExamplePerformance Evaluation Example

Observed/Predicted Temperature

259261263265267269271273275277279281283

11/25 11/27 11/29 12/ 1 12/ 3 12/ 5 12/ 7 12/ 9 12/11 12/13K

ObsTemp PrdTemp

Observed/Predicted Windspeed

02468

1012

11/25 11/27 11/29 12/ 1 12/ 3 12/ 5 12/ 7 12/ 9 12/11 12/13

m/s

ObsWndSpd PrdWndSpd

Predicted/Observed Humidity

0

2

4

6

11/25 11/27 11/29 12/ 1 12/ 3 12/ 5 12/ 7 12/ 9 12/11 12/13

g/kg

ObsHum PrdHum

Bias Wind Direction

-30

0

30

11/25 11/27 11/29 12/ 1 12/ 3 12/ 5 12/ 7 12/ 9 12/11 12/13

deg

BiasWndDir

Images Courtesy of Oklahoma DEQ: CENRAP 12km Episodic Evaluation

Dispersion Modeling Philosophy and Dispersion Modeling Philosophy and Prognostic DataPrognostic Data

•• Section 10.1.2 (a) of GAQM Section 10.1.2 (a) of GAQM –– ““models are models are reasonably reliable in estimating the magnitude reasonably reliable in estimating the magnitude of highest concentrations occurring sometime, of highest concentrations occurring sometime, somewhere within an area.somewhere within an area.””

•• Thus, our prognostic fields do not have to be Thus, our prognostic fields do not have to be perfect, but have to show that they are perfect, but have to show that they are climatologically consistent and replicate climatologically consistent and replicate conditions or meteorological features which are conditions or meteorological features which are likely responsible for design concentrations.likely responsible for design concentrations.

AndersonAnderson’’s World s World –– Part IVPart IV

•• The exact input data set is less important as it is understandinThe exact input data set is less important as it is understanding g what the nature of it is and how it should be usedwhat the nature of it is and how it should be used……–– You do not use NCEP Reanalysis Data with resolution at 2.5You do not use NCEP Reanalysis Data with resolution at 2.5°° x 2.5x 2.5°°as a as a

first guess fields with new fields every six hours when conductifirst guess fields with new fields every six hours when conducting ng simulations in the Grand Canyonsimulations in the Grand Canyon

–– You would likely utilize MM5 at a minimum of 4 km, more likely aYou would likely utilize MM5 at a minimum of 4 km, more likely at 1.33 t 1.33 km with RUC or ETA initialization for MM5 and then use CALMET fokm with RUC or ETA initialization for MM5 and then use CALMET for r finer scale analysis (i.e. < 1 km resolution).finer scale analysis (i.e. < 1 km resolution).

•• We use statistical and visual evaluations of input data sets to We use statistical and visual evaluations of input data sets to compare against known benchmarks to determine the compare against known benchmarks to determine the appropriateness of the data set. This provides both quantitativappropriateness of the data set. This provides both quantitative e and qualitative understanding of the value of the input data setand qualitative understanding of the value of the input data set. Is . Is the input data set climatologically consistent and does it captuthe input data set climatologically consistent and does it capture the re the features that are important to the design concentrations in the features that are important to the design concentrations in the area area under review? under review?

South American South American MM5/CALMET/CALPUFF StudyMM5/CALMET/CALPUFF Study

CALMET/CALPUFF DOMAIN (2km CALMET/CALPUFF DOMAIN (2km Resolution)Resolution)

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-100

-50

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CALMET/CALPUFF DOMAIN (36 km CALMET/CALPUFF DOMAIN (36 km resolution)resolution)

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Visual Comparison of 1km Winds Visual Comparison of 1km Winds and 12 km Windsand 12 km Winds

Domain Resolution and Effects on Domain Resolution and Effects on DispersionDispersion

ConclusionsConclusions

•• Section 9.3(c) and 9.3.1.2(d) of GAQM govern use of prognostic Section 9.3(c) and 9.3.1.2(d) of GAQM govern use of prognostic data for air quality applications.data for air quality applications.–– Review and approval of the use of prognostic data is most often Review and approval of the use of prognostic data is most often the the

responsibility of the EPA Regional Officesresponsibility of the EPA Regional Offices–– Use of 3DVAR satisfies requirements of use of NWS data blending Use of 3DVAR satisfies requirements of use of NWS data blending in in

many situations.many situations.–– NOOBS mode is appropriate in some situations given the use of 3DNOOBS mode is appropriate in some situations given the use of 3DVAR VAR

and correct meteorological field resolution.and correct meteorological field resolution.–– Develop adDevelop ad--hoc guidelines consistent with the TCEQ 2001 study to hoc guidelines consistent with the TCEQ 2001 study to

provide modelers with firmer benchmarks.provide modelers with firmer benchmarks.–– Understand the nature of the input data set, its strengths and Understand the nature of the input data set, its strengths and

weaknesses. Our goal is weaknesses. Our goal is climatologicalclimatological consistency, not perfection. consistency, not perfection. Knowing how the data set can and cannot be used is critical.Knowing how the data set can and cannot be used is critical.

–– PROTOCOLS, PROTOCOLSPROTOCOLS, PROTOCOLS……get your proposals and methodologies on get your proposals and methodologies on paper so that all can review.paper so that all can review.