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USDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW StationUSDA Forest Service NRIS Tools PNW Station

EMDS 3.0

a modeling framework for coping with complexity in ecosystem assessment

and environmental planning

EMDS 3.0

a modeling framework for coping with complexity in ecosystem assessment

and environmental planning

Keith ReynoldsKeith ReynoldsPacific Northwest Research StationPacific Northwest Research Station


BasicsBasics

Version 3.0 completed in February 2002Version 3.0 completed in February 2002 FundingFunding

Natural Resource Information System, Tools Group Natural Resource Information System, Tools Group (USDA Forest Service Washington Office) (USDA Forest Service Washington Office)

System designSystem design Pacific Northwest Research StationPacific Northwest Research Station

ImplementationImplementation Environmental Systems Research Institute as the Environmental Systems Research Institute as the

primary contractor primary contractor


Version 3.0 design objectivesVersion 3.0 design objectives

1.1. Improve the efficiency with which landscape Improve the efficiency with which landscape evaluation is conductedevaluation is conducted

a)a) Optimize use of informationOptimize use of information

2.2. Improve the quality of evaluation productsImprove the quality of evaluation productsa)a) More comprehensive analysisMore comprehensive analysis

b)b) Better integration of diverse topicsBetter integration of diverse topics

3.3. Integrated support for planningIntegrated support for planning


Integrated evaluation and planningIntegrated evaluation and planning

Evaluation within scaleEvaluation within scale Concurrent evaluation of possibly numerous states and Concurrent evaluation of possibly numerous states and

processes within a single analysisprocesses within a single analysis

Across scaleAcross scale Explicit linkage of evaluations across spatial scalesExplicit linkage of evaluations across spatial scales Comparing evaluations over timeComparing evaluations over time

Across phases of adaptive managementAcross phases of adaptive management Going from landscape evaluation to planningGoing from landscape evaluation to planning


EMDS in adaptive managementEMDS in adaptive management


Version 3.0 implementationVersion 3.0 implementation

EMDS 3.0 is an ArcMap extension (ArcGIS 8.x)EMDS 3.0 is an ArcMap extension (ArcGIS 8.x) Windows NT 4.0, 2000, XPWindows NT 4.0, 2000, XP

COM-basedCOM-based Major componentsMajor components

Project environment (core)Project environment (core) Logic engine (logic-based evaluation)Logic engine (logic-based evaluation) Hotlink tool (intuitive graphic explanation)Hotlink tool (intuitive graphic explanation) Data Acquisition Manager (priority of missing data)Data Acquisition Manager (priority of missing data) Priority Analyst (priority setting in planning)Priority Analyst (priority setting in planning)


Logic modelsLogic models

A form of meta databaseA form of meta database A formal logical representation of how to evaluate A formal logical representation of how to evaluate

informationinformation Networks of interrelated topicsNetworks of interrelated topics Mental mapMental map


Logic models: forms of uncertaintyLogic models: forms of uncertainty

Probabilistic uncertaintyProbabilistic uncertainty Uncertainty of eventsUncertainty of events

Linguistic uncertaintyLinguistic uncertainty Uncertainty about the definition of eventsUncertainty about the definition of events

Vagueness or imprecisionVagueness or imprecision

A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which A proposition is the smallest unit of thought to which one can assign a measure of truth (strength of evidence)one can assign a measure of truth (strength of evidence)

SE: a measure that quantifies the degree of support for SE: a measure that quantifies the degree of support for a proposition provided by its premisesa proposition provided by its premises


Project environmentProject environment

NetWeaver Developer (NetWeaver Developer (Rules of ThumbRules of Thumb) and ) and Criterium DecisionPlus (Criterium DecisionPlus (InfoHarvestInfoHarvest) are external ) are external development tools needed to development tools needed to create logic models and create logic models and decision models, decision models, respectively. respectively.


Project environment interfaceProject environment interface

Create and manage EMDS projects. Create and manage EMDS projects. View and edit EMDS projects notes (meta data).View and edit EMDS projects notes (meta data). Select GIS layers to include in an assessment Select GIS layers to include in an assessment Define a Study Area. Define a Study Area. Select a logic model. Select a logic model. Select topics for evaluation. Select topics for evaluation. Evaluate an analysis or scenario. Evaluate an analysis or scenario. Review results of an analysis or scenario in maps, tables, and Review results of an analysis or scenario in maps, tables, and

graphs. graphs. Launch Data Acquisition Manager (DAM), Hotlink Browser, Launch Data Acquisition Manager (DAM), Hotlink Browser,

and Priority Analyst. and Priority Analyst.


Project structureProject structure

Project hierarchyProject hierarchy Multiple scales of assessmentMultiple scales of assessment Multiple analyses within Multiple analyses within

assessmentsassessments Multiple scenarios within analysesMultiple scenarios within analyses

The hierarchy is represented in a The hierarchy is represented in a tree view.tree view.


NetWeaver logic engineNetWeaver logic engine

Evaluations of landscape condition performed with this Evaluations of landscape condition performed with this engine.engine.

Data input to the engine is mediated by the EMDS Project Data input to the engine is mediated by the EMDS Project Environment. Environment.

The engine The engine supports design of logic specifications for the types of large, supports design of logic specifications for the types of large,

complex, and abstract problems typically posed by ecosystem complex, and abstract problems typically posed by ecosystem management, management,

evaluates data against a knowledge base that provides a formal evaluates data against a knowledge base that provides a formal specification for interpretation of data, and specification for interpretation of data, and

allows partial evaluations of ecosystem states and processes based allows partial evaluations of ecosystem states and processes based on available information.on available information.

Ideal for use in landscape evaluation where data are often incomplete. Ideal for use in landscape evaluation where data are often incomplete.


Dealing with missing dataDealing with missing data

Data are treated as evidence.Data are treated as evidence. Missing data are treated as Missing data are treated as

lack of evidence.lack of evidence. The logic engine can The logic engine can

evaluate the evaluate the influence of missing informinfluence of missing informationation on the logical completeness on the logical completeness of an analysis. of an analysis. One component for One component for

determining priority of determining priority of missing data.missing data.


Map productsMap products

Basic EMDS output is Basic EMDS output is maps.maps.

Symbology displays Symbology displays strength of evidence for a strength of evidence for a conclusion.conclusion.

Advantage of a logic-Advantage of a logic-based solution.based solution. NotNot a “black box.” a “black box.”


Hotlink browser: explaining resultsHotlink browser: explaining results

Used to view the evaluated state of Used to view the evaluated state of a logic model for a selected map a logic model for a selected map feature. feature.

The graphic display of the The graphic display of the evaluated state of a knowledge evaluated state of a knowledge base is relatively intuitive.base is relatively intuitive.

Provides a detailed explanation of Provides a detailed explanation of the derivation of conclusions.the derivation of conclusions. Valuable to EMDS developers, Valuable to EMDS developers,

users, and the general public users, and the general public


Data Acquisition Manager (DAM)Data Acquisition Manager (DAM)

Data gaps are common in early Data gaps are common in early stages of landscape evaluation. stages of landscape evaluation.

Influence of missing information Influence of missing information is very dynamic. is very dynamic.

The DAMThe DAM summarizes the influence of summarizes the influence of

missing information, given the missing information, given the information that is currently information that is currently available, and available, and

assists with establishing priorities assists with establishing priorities for obtaining missing data to for obtaining missing data to improve the logical completeness improve the logical completeness of an analysis in the most efficient of an analysis in the most efficient way. way.


Priority Analyst (PA)Priority Analyst (PA)

PA is a Multi-Criteria Decision PA is a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) componentAnalysis (MCDA) component Assists in ranking landscape Assists in ranking landscape

elements, based on how well each elements, based on how well each rates against a set of decision rates against a set of decision criteria. criteria.

Uses output from the landscape Uses output from the landscape evaluation and a decision model. evaluation and a decision model.

Rates landscape elements with Rates landscape elements with respect to respect to their condition, andtheir condition, and factors related to the feasibility factors related to the feasibility

and efficacy of management. and efficacy of management.


Priority analyst outputPriority analyst output

Aspatial outputAspatial output

Spatial outputSpatial output


Priority analyst diagnosticsPriority analyst diagnostics

How primary criteria in a How primary criteria in a decision model contribute to decision model contribute to the total priority score for a the total priority score for a watershed.watershed.

In this example, a 13.4% In this example, a 13.4% change in the weight on the change in the weight on the WS condition criterion would WS condition criterion would lead to a change in ordering of lead to a change in ordering of priorities.priorities.


Linking multiple spatial scalesLinking multiple spatial scales

Basic approach: summarize Basic approach: summarize information from one scale in information from one scale in a manner that makes the a manner that makes the information applicable at information applicable at another scale. another scale.

In general, some type of In general, some type of transformation of information transformation of information is needed when moving is needed when moving information from one scale of information from one scale of evaluation to the next. evaluation to the next.


Classic planning processClassic planning process

Evaluate current condition

Generatealternatives

Evaluate alternatives

Implementselected alternative

ID key questionsand data needs

Each planning cycleEach planning cycleis more or less is more or less independent of the independent of the previous one. previous one.


Adaptive planningAdaptive planning

Evaluate current condition


Evaluate alternatives



Evaluate implementation

Reviseimplementation

Plan is evaluated at Plan is evaluated at shorter intervals shorter intervals than in classic than in classic model, allowing model, allowing incremental incremental adjustments that adjustments that may extend life of may extend life of plan.plan.


Adaptive, coherent planning (EMS, ISO 14001)

Adaptive, coherent planning (EMS, ISO 14001)

Evaluation withsingle model




Reviseimplementation

Unified approach to Unified approach to evaluation adds evaluation adds coherence through coherence through institutional memory.institutional memory.

Applies to initial Applies to initial condition, condition, alternatives, andalternatives, andplan performance.plan performance.


A single unified model for planningA single unified model for planning

1.1. Assess current conditionAssess current condition Context for planning (where are we starting from?)Context for planning (where are we starting from?)

2.2. Evaluate alternative strategiesEvaluate alternative strategies A framework for synthesizing results of projectionsA framework for synthesizing results of projections Harvest scheduling, vegetation modeling, etc.Harvest scheduling, vegetation modeling, etc.

3.3. Priority Analyst for more tactical decisionsPriority Analyst for more tactical decisions Which activities to do where?Which activities to do where?

4.4. Evaluate plan implementationEvaluate plan implementation How well is the plan working?How well is the plan working?


Contact informationContact information

Phone: +01-541-750-7434Phone: +01-541-750-7434 Email: Email: [email protected]@fs.fed.us Website: www.fsl.orst.edu/emdsWebsite: www.fsl.orst.edu/emds

usda forest service nris tools pnw station usda forest service nris tools pnw station emds 3.0 a...

Documents

tools group wo slide

planning slide

planning evaluation

ocx slide

scale evaluation

landscape evaluation

premises slide

primary contractor slide