u.s. hotel industry performance - alis 2016 edition · 1 u.s. hotel . industry performance - alis...
TRANSCRIPT
1
U.S. Hotel Industry Performance - ALIS 2016 Edition -
Jan D. Freitag
Senior Vice President
@jan_freitag [email protected]
2
What Wall Street Expects:
2016 What STR Expects:
3
What to say to an analysts who does not believe our 2016 +5.0% RevPAR forecast:
4
Agenda • Total US Review
• Scale Review
• Segmentation
• Markets
• Pipeline
• 2016 / 2017 Forecast
• AirBnB
5
www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on “Data Presentations”
6
Total US Review
7
Full Year 2015: Decelerating Occ / ADR Growth Rates
% Change
• Room Supply 1.1% • Room Demand 2.9% • Occupancy 65.6% 1.7% • A.D.R. $120 4.4% • RevPAR $79 6.3% • Room Revenue 7.4%
December 2015 YTD, Total US Results
8
Total US RevPAR: NYC and Houston Dragged
Total US : +6.3% NYC: -1.7% Houston: -3.3% Total US excluding NYC & Houston: +6.9%
*RevPAR % Change December 2015 YTD
9
Quarterly RevPAR % Change: Slowing Down Off Record Highs
7.7 7.7
5.0
6.4 6.1
4.7 5.4
4.9
6.6
7.9
9.1 8.9 8.0
6.5 5.9
4.8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015
* Total US, RevPAR % Change, by Quarter, Q1 2012 – Q4 2015
10
Supply Growth Now Back Over 1%. Demand Growth Slows.
-0.8
-4.7
-7.1
7.7
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 2000 2010
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
Total U.S., Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/1990 – 12/2015
11
RevPAR Growth: It’s Going To Be OK (but Not Great)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 2000 2010
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change, 1/1990 – 12/2015
56 Months 70 Mo. 80 Months 31 Mo
12
Why Wall Street Is So Blue: Growth of RevPAR Growth Is Slowing
-7%
-2%
4%
9%
14%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RevPAR % Change Growth of Growth
Growth of Growth
RevPAR % Change
Total U.S., RevPAR % Change and 12MMA “Change of Change”, 1/2015 – 12/2015
13
Chain Scale Review
14
Scales: Demand Growth Healthy. Upscale Supply Increases
0.7
1.3
4.1
1.3
0.1 0.2
1.2
2.0
4.8
3.3
2.1
1.6
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Supply % Change Demand % Change
*Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, December 2015 YTD
15
Scales RevPAR Composition: ADR Driven
0.5 0.7 0.7
1.9 2.1 1.4
4.2 4.0 4.9
4.3 4.2 5.0
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
ADR % Change Occupancy % Change
*RevPAR % Change by Contribution of OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, December 2015 YTD
16
Scales: Upper End Hotels Are Very Busy
75.3 74.2 74.3
67.6
59.5 58.3
75.0 73.6 73.8
66.4
58.3 57.5
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
2015 2014
*OCC %, by Scale, December YTD 2015 & 2014
17
Segmentation
18
Transient ADR Growth Subsides Despite High Occupancies
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
*Transient Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 12/2015
19
Group Demand Growth Slows Rapidly
-2%
-1%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
*Group Demand and ADR % Change, 12 MMA, 1/2012 – 12/2015
20
Markets
21
RevPAR December 2015 YTD: Winner: CA. Loser: Oil Markets.
Market RevPAR %
Change Market RevPAR %
Change
Macon/Warner Robbins, GA
18.6 Ohio Area
(1.9)
San Jose/Santa Cruz, CA
17.3 Houston, TX
(3.3)
Oakland, CA
15.7 Texas North
(4.1)
Chattanooga, TN-GA
15.5 West Virginia
(4.5)
California North Central
14.9 New Mexico South
(5.4)
Fort Myers, FL
14.7 Augusta, GA-SC
(6.7)
Knoxville, TN
14.5 Oklahoma Area
(10.0)
Portland, OR
14.2 Texas South
(11.4)
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL
13.8 Texas West
(19.2)
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC
13.7 North Dakota
(20.9)
*December 2015 YTD RevPAR: Best / Worst Performing Markets
22
December 2015 YTD: High Occ = Higher ADR. (Except in NYC ???)
Market OCC % ADR % Change Nashville, TN 73.5 8.7 Phoenix, AZ 65.9 8.0 Seattle, WA 76.2 7.8
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 71.8 7.7 Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 79.7 7.5
Washington, DC-MD-VA 70.7 3.0
Oahu Island, HI 85.3 3.0 New Orleans, LA 69.7 2.3
Houston, TX 68.5 1.6 New York, NY 84.7 -1.6
* December 2015 YTD ADR % Change in Top 25: 5 Best / 5 Worst Performing ADR % Markets
23
NYC
24
12.4 6.0 5.8 3.8 2.2
-1.7
80.8 81.2 83.7 84.4 84.7 84.7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RevPAR % Change Occupancy
NYC YTD RevPAR & Occupancy: Full House But No RevPAR Growth
* NYC RevPAR % Change & Absolut Occupancy, December YTD, by year
25
Houston
26
Houston: Oil Price Predicts Houston Room Demand
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
$35
$45
$55
$65
$75
$85
$95
$105
2014 2015
Crude Oil Futures Price / Barrel (LHS)
Demand % Change (RHS)
*Monthly Oil price Future / Barrel vs. Houston, TX Room Demand % Change 1/2014 – 12/2015 http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
27
Pipeline
28
US Pipeline: Construction Today Will Impact 2016 / 2017
Phase 2015 2014 % Change
In Construction 141 120 17%
Final Planning 180 122 47%
Planning 147 170 -13%
Under Contract 469 413 14%
*Total US Pipeline, by Phase, ‘000s Rooms, December 2015 and 2014
29
Limited Service Construction Has Been Strong For 2 Years
7.4 11.5
49.2 48.0
5.3 1.5
17.7
Luxury Upper Upscale
Upscale Upper Midscale
Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
*US Pipeline, Rooms Under Construction , ‘000s Rooms, by Scale, December 2015
69%
30
Construction In Top 26 Markets: 20 With 2%+ Of Supply
*US Pipeline, Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply, December 2015
Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing Oahu Island, HI 175 0.6%
Norfolk/Virginia Beach, VA 300 0.8% St Louis, MO-IL 407 1.1%
Atlanta, GA 1,255 1.3% San Francisco/San Mateo, CA 751 1.5%
New Orleans, LA 618 1.6% Orlando, FL 2,600 2.1% Detroit, MI 954 2.3%
Las Vegas, NV 3,905 2.3% Phoenix, AZ 1,536 2.5% Chicago, IL 2,964 2.7%
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 1,233 2.8% Washington, DC-MD-VA 3,339 3.1%
San Diego, CA 1,951 3.2% Denver, CO 1,794 4.1%
Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 2,328 4.2% Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 4,240 4.3% Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 1,949 5.0%
Boston, MA 2,627 5.0% Philadelphia, PA-NJ 2,343 5.1%
Nashville, TN 1,982 5.1% Dallas, TX 4,177 5.2%
Seattle, WA 2,232 5.3% Houston, TX 5,710 7.1%
Miami/Hialeah, FL 3,920 7.6% New York, NY 14,090 12.0%
31
2016 / 2017 Forecast
32
Notable Calendar Shifts Impacting Lodging Performance Data in 2016:
Super Bowl: From Phoenix to San Francisco Easter: From April to March Jewish Holidays: From September to October April and December will have two more Weekend days (Net +) May will have two fewer Weekend days (Net -) Leap Day February 29th (No Impact To Results) See: http://www.str.com/Media/Default/Documents/STR_leap_year_methodology.pdf
33
Total United States Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2016 - 2017 Outlook
2016 Forecast
2017 Forecast
Supply 1.7% 1.9%
Demand 2.3% 2.1%
Occupancy 0.6% 0.2%
ADR 4.4% 4.3%
RevPAR 5.0% 4.5%
34
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2016F by Chain Scale 2016 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale Occupancy
(% chg) ADR
(% chg) RevPAR (% chg)
Luxury 0.4% 4.5% 4.9% Upper Upscale 0.5% 4.6% 5.2%
Upscale -0.2% 4.5% 4.3% Upper Midscale 0.4% 4.1% 4.5%
Midscale 0.5% 3.5% 4.0% Economy 0.9% 3.7% 4.6%
Independent 0.6% 4.4% 5.1%
Total United States 0.6% 4.4% 5.0%
35
Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2017F by Chain Scale 2017 Year End Outlook
Chain Scale Occupancy
(% chg) ADR
(% chg) RevPAR (% chg)
Luxury 0.1% 4.7% 4.8% Upper Upscale 0.1% 4.6% 4.7%
Upscale -0.6% 3.8% 3.2% Upper Midscale -0.1% 3.7% 3.6%
Midscale 0.6% 4.1% 4.7% Economy 0.4% 3.4% 3.9%
Independent 0.3% 4.4% 4.7%
Total United States 0.2% 4.3% 4.5%
36