u.s. epa: ncea/global change research program
DESCRIPTION
U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program. Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Hydrologic Component. Glenn E. Moglen University of Maryland November 12, 2002. Outline. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program
Glenn E. MoglenUniversity of MarylandNovember 12, 2002
Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Hydrologic Component
Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Hydrologic Component
OutlineOutline Spatially Explicit Land Use Modeling Peak Flow Modeling
TR-20/TR-55 Continuous Streamflow Modeling Regression Approach?
Low Flow Modeling Continuous Streamflow Modeling Regression Approach
Items in “Flux” Water Quality Modeling Stream Gaging Can you spell “I-C-C”?
Northwest Branch Watershed…Northwest Branch Watershed…
Temporal Change in Aggregate Land Use Distribution…Temporal Change in Aggregate Land Use Distribution…
Tracking Land Use Change In Time AND Space…Tracking Land Use Change In Time AND Space…
Reference: Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.
Land Use Change AnimationLand Use Change Animation
Northwest Branch Watershed: 1938 - 2000.
Based on methods presented in Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002
If you would like to see this again…
http://www.ence.umd.edu/~moglen/WWproject.html
Peak Flow ModelingPeak Flow Modeling TR-55: “Graphical Method” (see Moglen
and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.
Peak Flow ModelingPeak Flow Modeling For larger watersheds where channel
processes or reservoirs add significant delays or attenuation of flood we use composite of TR-55 and TR-20 simulations:
)()()()(
)()()()(
)()(~
555555
202020
5520
ATRAAB
ATRBTR
ATRAAB
ATRBTR
TRTR
xQxxxx
xQxQ
xQxxxx
xQxQ
xQxQ
)(
)()()(
~
55
205520
ATR
ATRTRTR xQ
xQxQxQ
From Sources to first downstream point TR-20 point:
In between TR-20 simulated points:
Continuous Streamflow Modeling: A “Simple” Model
Continuous Streamflow Modeling: A “Simple” Model Storages
Fluxes
Issues
Implications
Sample Simulation – Northwest Branch: Historic/1994-2092Sample Simulation – Northwest Branch: Historic/1994-2092
A Different Approach – Evolution of annual 7-day low flow eventA Different Approach – Evolution of annual 7-day low flow event Regression Approach – Low Flows in NWB
Year
Q7 (
m3/s
)
)()()(29.0 72.033.01.27
ITPQ
Items In Flux: Water Quality ModelingItems In Flux: Water Quality Modeling
Not much progress to date…Focus of Years 3 & 4 of WWS project
Existing Models HSPF SWMM Conceptual/Simple Model
Need to model land use change Dynamically
Items in Flux: Stream Gaging Activities…Items in Flux: Stream Gaging Activities…
Installed 5 gages of our own across all study watersheds, scales, & land uses.
Have access to data from 3 USGS stream gages at outlets of study watersheds.
Have access to data from 2 Montgomery County stream gages.
Items in Flux: The Inter-County Connector and our Watersheds…Items in Flux: The Inter-County Connector and our Watersheds…
Northwest Branch
Paint Branch
ICC
Summary / Future DirectionsSummary / Future Directions
Issues addressed or with clear approach: Land use change modeling Peak flow modeling Continuous streamflow modeling Low Flow Modeling
Issues in “Flux” Water Quality Modeling Stream Gaging ICC as a “wildcard”