us economic indicators: jolts · job openings 5 hirings, separations, & payrolls 6 quits &...
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US Economic Indicators:JOLTS
Yardeni Research, Inc.
November 10, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
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thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
November 10, 2020 / JOLTS www.yardeni.com
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Hirings & Separations 3Layoffs & Quits 4Job Openings 5Hirings, Separations, & Payrolls 6Quits & Consumer Confidence Index 712-Month Changes 8-10Hires, Quits, & Layoffs Rates 11-13Consumer Optimism & Quit Rate 14Job Openings & Wage Inflation 15Job Openings 16-21
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
Sep
Sep
NEW HIRES & SEPARATIONS(millions, sa)
Total Separations (4.7)Total Hires (5.9)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 1.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202240
50
60
70
80
90
40
50
60
70
80
90
Sep
NEW HIRES & SEPARATIONS(12-month sum, millions)
Total Separations (76.4)Total Hires (70.4)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 2.
Hirings & Separations
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Sep
Sep
LAYOFFS & QUITS(millions, sa)
Layoffs (1.3)Quits (3.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 3.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202218
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
SepSep
LAYOFFS vs. QUITS(12-month sum, millions)
Layoffs (36.7)Quits (35.6)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 4.
Layoffs & Quits
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Figure 5.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Sep
TOTAL JOB OPENINGS (millions, sa)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sep
TOTAL UNEMPLOYED AS RATIO OF JOB OPENINGS
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Sep
TOTAL JOB OPENINGS AS PERCENT OF PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Job Openings
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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000NEW HIRES MINUS SEPARATIONS & NONFARM PAYROLLS(monthly change, thousands, sa)
Total Hirings Minus Separations (Sep=1207.0)
Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct=638.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 6.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-30
-20
-10
0
10
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Sep
Oct
NEW HIRES MINUS SEPARATIONS & NONFARM PAYROLLS(millions, sa)
Total Hires Minus Separations(12-month sum)(-6.0)Nonfarm Payrolls(12-month change) (-9.2)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 7.
Hirings, Separations, & Payrolls
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep
QUITS vs. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
Consumer ConfidenceIndex(1985=100)
Quits(millions, sa)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board.
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Figure 8.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
5000
10000
15000
0
5000
10000
15000
Layoffs
Quits
Hires Aug
Openings
HIRES & SEPARATIONS(thousands, sa)
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Note: Extreme values for March not shown.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 9.
Quits & Consumer Confidence Index
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Sep
NEW HIRES(12-month change, thousands)
New Hires (-88.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 10.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Sep
TOTAL SEPARATIONS (12-month change, thousands)
Separations (-1075.0)
Note: Extreme values for March not shown.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 11.
12-Month Changes
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
Sep
LAYOFFS & DISCHARGES (12-month change, thousands)
Layoffs & Discharges (-629.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 12.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-2000
-1800
-1600
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
-2000
-1800
-1600
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Sep
QUITS (12-month change, thousands)
Quits (-411.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 13.
12-Month Changes
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Sep
TOTAL JOB OPENINGS (12-month change, thousands)
Job Openings (-610.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 14.
12-Month Changes
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sep
JOB OPENINGS, QUITS, HIRES, & LAYOFFS RATES: TOTAL PRIVATE (percent, sa)
Job Openings (4.6)Quits (2.4)Hires (4.6)Layoffs (1.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 15.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Sep
JOB OPENINGS RATE BY PRIVATE INDUSTRY(percent, sa) Total Private (4.6)
Construction (3.1)Manufacturing (3.6)Trade, Transporation, & Utilities (4.0)Professional & Business Services (6.0)Education & Health Services (5.0)Leisure & Hospitality (5.7)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 16.
Hires, Quits, & Layoffs Rates
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sep
QUITS RATES BY INDUSTRY(percent, sa) Total Private (2.4)
Construction (2.0)Manufacturing (1.7)Trade, Transporation, & Utilities (2.6)Professional & Business Services (3.0)Education & Health Services (1.8)Leisure & Hospitality (4.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 17.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
Sep
HIRES RATES BY INDUSTRY(percent, sa)
Total Private (4.6)Construction (5.3)Manufacturing (2.9)Trade, Transporation, & Utilities (4.7)Professional & Business Services (5.7)Education & Health Services (3.2)Leisure & Hospitality (8.1)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 18.
Hires, Quits, & Layoffs Rates
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Sep
LAYOFFS RATES BY INDUSTRY(percent, nsa) Total Private (1.0)
Construction (1.4)Manufacturing (0.8)Trade, Transporation, & Utilities (0.8)Professional & Business Services (1.4)Education & Health Services (0.6)Leisure & Hospitality (2.2)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 19.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
Q3
Q3
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX & JOB OPENINGS RATE
Job Openings Rate(percent) (4.6)
ECI: Wages, Salaries,& Benefits ofCivilian Workers(yearly percent change) (2.4)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 20.
Hires, Quits, & Layoffs Rates
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Figure 21.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sep
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX & QUITS RATE
Consumer OptimismIndex*(1985=100) (91.4)
Quits Rate(percent, sa) (2.4)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Oct
Consumer SentimentIndex(Q1 1966=100) (81.8)
Quits Rate(percent, sa) (2.4)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
0
50
100
150
Oct
Sep
Consumer ConfidenceIndex(1985=100) (100.9)
Quits Rate(percent, sa) (2.4)
*Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Conference Board, and the University of Michigan.
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Consumer Optimism & Quit Rate
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Figure 22.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.6
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Oct
JOB OPENINGS & WAGE INFLATIONNFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent) (32.7)
JOLTS: Job Openings Rate(percent) (4.6)
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
OctOct
NFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent) (32.7)
Average Hourly Earnings:Production & Nonsupervisory Workers(yearly percent change) (4.5)
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
5.0
5.4
5.8
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Oct
Q3
ECI: Wages, Salaries,& Benefits in Private Industry(yearly percent change) (2.4)
NFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent) (32.7)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business.
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Job Openings & Wage Inflation
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
Sep
JOB OPENINGS, QUITS, & HIRES RATES: TOTAL(percent, sa)
Job Openings (4.3)Quits (2.1)Hires (4.1)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 23.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Sep
TOTAL JOB OPENINGS.(yearly change, millions, sa)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 24.
Job Openings
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sep
TOTAL U6* UNEMPLOYED AS RATIO OF JOB OPENINGS
* Unemployed + part-time for economic reasons + marginally attached.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 25.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.2
SepOct
JOB OPENINGS: JOLTS & NFIBNFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(percent, 12-month average) (32.7)
JOLTS: Job Openings Rate(percent, 12-month average) (4.4)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Independent Business.
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Figure 26.
Job Openings
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Sep
Oct
JOB OPENINGS & UNEMPLOYED WORKERS(millions)
Unemployed WorkersJob Openings
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 27.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Sep
TOTAL JOB OPENINGS MINUS TOTAL UNEMPLOYED(millions, sa)
Latest (-6.14)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 28.
Job Openings
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
500
1000
1500
0
500
1000
1500
Sep
JOB OPENINGS(thousands, sa)
Health Care & Social Assistance (1112.0)Professional & Business Services (1276.0)Leisure & Hospitality (781.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 29.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20210
100
200
300
400
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
Sep
JOB OPENINGS(thousands, sa) Construction (229.0)
Durable GoodsManufacturing (255.0)Financial Activities (316.0)State & Local Governmentex Education (388.0)Transportation, Warehousing,& Utilities (279.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 30.
Job Openings
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022200
400
600
800
1000
1200
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Sep
JOB OPENINGS(thousands, sa)
Retail Trade (653.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 31.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
100
200
300
400
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
Sep
JOB OPENINGS(thousands, sa)
Construction (229.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 32.
Job Openings
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220
100
200
300
400
0
100
200
300
400JOB OPENINGS(thousands, sa)
Durable GoodsManufacturing (255.0)Transportation, Warehousing,& Utilities (279.0)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 33.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct
Sep
QUITS vs. JOBS PLENTIFUL
Jobs Plentiful(percent saying so)
Quits(millions, sa)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board.
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Figure 34.
Job Openings
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