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US Economic Briefing:Consumer Confidence
Yardeni Research, Inc.
September 26, 2017
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
September 26, 2017 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com
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Consumer Confidence & Sentiment 1Consumer Optimism 2Consumer Confidence 3-5Consumer Confidence & Unemployment 6-7Consumer Confidence & Employment 8-10Consumer Sentiment 11Consumer Confidence By Region 12-14Consumer Optimism Index 15Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation 16Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation 17-20
Figure 1.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
CONSUMER SURVEYS
Sep
Sep
Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Sep
CURRENT CONDITIONS
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Sep
EXPECTATIONS
Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Consumer Confidence & Sentiment
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Figure 2.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*
Sep
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2140
60
80
100
120
140
160
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep
CURRENT CONDITIONS
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2130
50
70
90
110
130
30
50
70
90
110
130
EXPECTATIONS
Sep
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Consumer Optimism
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
Sep
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
Total (119.8)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 3.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Sep
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa) Current Conditions Component (146.1)
Expectations Component (102.2)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 4.
Consumer Confidence
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS(1985=100, sa)
Under 35 Years Old (120.9)35 to 54 Years Old (128.2)55 Years & Over (112.7)
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 5.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1920
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*
Sep
Total (107.6)Present (130.0)Expectations (92.8)
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index and Consumer Confidence Index.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Figure 6.
Consumer Confidence
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABLITY(percent saying so)
Sep
Jobs HardTo Get* (18.1)
Jobs Plentiful* (32.6)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 7.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Sep
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: CURRENT CONDITIONS & JOBS AVAILABILITY
Jobs Plentiful MinusJobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so) (14.5)
Current Conditions Index (146.1)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 8.
Consumer Confidence
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68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 200
15
30
45
60
75
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Unemployment Rate(percent)
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & JOBS AVAILABILITY
Jobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so)
Sep
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.
Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 9.
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 205
10
15
20
0
15
30
45
60
75
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & CONFIDENCE(sa)
Sep
Jobs Hard To Get(percent saying so)
U-6UnemploymentRate*(percent)
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.* Total unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as percent of civilian labor force plus
all attached workers.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.
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Figure 10.
Consumer Confidence & Unemployment
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73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 190
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
200
400
600
800
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, 4-week ma)
9/16
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(sa)
Jobs Hard To Get(percent saying so)
Sep
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.
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Figure 11.
67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
15
30
45
60
75
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS & JOBS AVAILABILITY(sa)
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, 4-week ma)
Jobs Hard To Get*(percent saying so)
* Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor.
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Figure 12.
Consumer Confidence & Unemployment
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Figure 12.
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
40
60
80
100
120
Sep
EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Consumer Sentiment Index(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
50
100
150
Sep
EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100, sa)
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sep
EMPLOYMENT & CONSUMER OPTIMISM
Consumer Optimism Index*
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change)
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Source: The Conference Board, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, and US Department of Labor.
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Consumer Confidence & Employment
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Sep
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS(sa)
Percent ExpectingMore Jobs6 Months From Now
Percent ExpectingFewer Jobs6 Months From Now
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 13.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1820
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
-42
-36
-30
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
Sep
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: EMPLOYMENT EXPECTATIONS(sa)
Percent Expecting More JobsMinus Percent Expecting Fewer Jobs
Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index
Source: The Conference Board.
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Figure 14.
Consumer Confidence & Employment
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Sep
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: BUSINESS CONDITIONS(sa)
Business Conditions6 Months Ahead
Better
Worsen
Same
Source: Conference Board.
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Figure 15.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 182
4
6
8
10
12
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sep
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: HOME
Plans to Buy Within 6 Months: Home(% of respondents, sa)
Source: Conference Board.
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Figure 16.
Consumer Confidence & Employment
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201840
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Sep
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Consumer Sentiment Index (95.3)
Current Conditions (113.9)
Expectations (83.4)
Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Figure 17.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201840
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Sep
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX(Q1-1966=100, nsa)
Current Conditions
Expectations
Source: University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Figure 18.
Consumer Sentiment
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Figure 19.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Aug
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
New England*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Aug
New England*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2115
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
150
AugMiddle Atlantic*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug
Middle Atlantic*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AugSouth Atlantic*
* New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont); Middle Atlantic (New Jersey, New York,Pennsylvania); South Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, Washington DC, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida).Source: The Conference Board.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Aug
South Atlantic*Current Conditions
Expectations
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Consumer Confidence By Region
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Figure 20.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Aug
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
East North Central*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
AugEast North Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AugEast South Central*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug
East South Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Aug
West North Central*
* East North Central (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin); East South Central (Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi);West North Central (Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas). Source: The Conference Board.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Aug
West North Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
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Consumer Confidence By Region
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Figure 21.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2140
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Aug
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX(1985=100, sa)
West South Central*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
35
50
65
80
95
110
125
140
155
170
185
200
215
Aug
West South Central*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Aug
Mountain*
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Aug
Mountain*Current Conditions
Expectations
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2120
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Aug
Pacific*
* West South Central (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas); Mountain (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona,Utah, Nevada); Pacific (Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii).Source: The Conference Board.
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Aug
Pacific*Current Conditions
Expectations
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Consumer Confidence By Region
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67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 2130
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX*
Sep
Sep
TotalCurrent ConditionsExpectations
* Average of Consumer Sentiment Index (nsa) and Consumer Confidence Index (sa).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
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Figure 22.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Aug
Sep
NFIB: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL(sa)
NFIB: Firms with One or MoreJob Openings(12-month average, percent) (30.7)
Jobs Plentiful(percent saying so) (32.6)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business.
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Figure 23.
Consumer Optimism Index
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82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Sep
Q2
ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL(sa)
ECI: Wages & SalariesPrivate Industry(yearly percent change)
Jobs Plentiful*(percent saying so)
* Every other month from 1967 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July 1977. Seasonally adjusted.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Conference Board.
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Figure 24.
Jobs Plentiful & Wage Inflation
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Figure 25.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep
Jul
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Optimism Index (107.6)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (2.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-10
-5
0
5
10
15
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Sep
Jul
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Sentiment Index(1966=100) (95.3)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (2.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep
Jul
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Confidence Index(1985=100) (119.8)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (2.5)
Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
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Figure 26.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep
Jul
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Optimism Index:Present Situation (130.0)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (2.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-10
-5
0
5
10
15
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Sep
Jul
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Sentiment Index:Current Conditions(1966=100) (113.9)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (2.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
50
100
150
200
Sep
Jul
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Confidence Index:Current Conditions(1985=100) (146.1)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (2.5)
Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
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Figure 27.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
SepJul
CONSUMER OPTIMISM INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Optimism Index:Expectations (92.8)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (2.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-10
-5
0
5
10
15
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
SepJul
CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Sentiment Index:Expectations(1966=100) (83.4)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (2.5)
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sep
Jul
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX vs. WAGES & SALARIES
Consumer Confidence Index:Expectations(1985=100) (102.2)
Wages & Salaries(yearly percent change (2.5)
Source: University of Michigan, The Conference Board, and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
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68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0
50
100
150
200
Sep
Aug
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & PAYROLL EMPLOYMENTPresent Situation Component(1985=100, sa) (146.1)
Payroll Employment(yearly percent change) (1.4)
Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 28.
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
0
50
100
150
200
Sep
Aug
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX & HOUSEHOLD EMPLOYMENTPresent Situation Component(1985=100, sa) (146.1)
Household Employment(yearly percent change) (1.2)
Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 29.
Consumer Confidence & Wage Inflation
Page 20 / September 26, 2017 / Consumer Confidence www.yardeni.com
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