Urbanization in AsiaJorge Carrillo-Rodriguez3rd March 2015

Urbanization implies…•physical and/or demographic expansion of

urban areas: increase in the number of cities, urban population, or the size of urban areas

•increased complexity of national systems of cities, increased differentiation between cities in terms of their economies, demographic composition, social dynamics and political role.

• increasing dominance of urban views regardless of geographical location

Drivers of urbanization•Natural growth•Internal migration•International migration•Reclassification

•Climate change/disaster•Conflict

Pace of urbanization

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

WorldAfricaAsiaLatin AmericaEuropeNorth America

Rate of Change of the Percentage Urban

Scale of Asian urbanization  Urban Rural Total % Urban

World 3,880,128 3,363,656 7,243,784 53.6

Asia2,064,21

1 2,278,044 4,092,157 47.5

Africa 455 345 682 885 1 138 229 40.0

Europe 545 382 197 431 742 813 73.4

Latin America 495 857 127 565 623 422 79.5

North America 291 860 66 376 358 236 81.5

Where the urban is…Agglomeration Country 1990 2014 2030

projection

Tokyo Japan 32,530 37,833 37,190

Delhi India 9,726 24,953 36,060

Shanghai China 7,823 22,991 30,751

Mumbai India 12,436 20,741 27,797

Kinki (Osaka) Japan 18,389 20,123 19,976

Beijing China 6,788 19,520 27,706

Dhaka Bangladesh 6,621 16,982 27,374

Karachi Pakistan 7,147 16,126 24,838

Kolkata India 10,890 14,766 19,092

Chongqing China 4,011 12,916 17,380

Manila Philippines 7,973 12,764 16,756

Guangzhou, Guangdong China 3,072 11,843

17,574

Tianjin China 4,558 10,860 14,655

Shenzhen China 875 10,680 12,673

Jakarta Indonesia 8,175 10,176 13,812

Seoul Rep. of Korea 10,518 9,775 9,960

Bangalore India 4,036 9,718 14,762

Chennai India 5,338 9,620 13,921Bangkok Thailand 5,888 9,098 11,528

Hyderabad India 4,193 8,670 12,774

Lahore Pakistan 3,970 8,500 13,033

Where the urban really is…

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

>105-101-50.5 - 10.5>

Urban population distribution by size of urban settlement

Asia - no single storyline

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

ASIAEast AsiaCentral AsiaSouth AsiaSouth-East Asia

Shrinking cities   

2000 - 2014

Khulna Bangladesh -212Fushun, Liaoning China -53Keelung China -10Liaoyuan China -7Yichun, Heilongjiang China -161Hamhung North Korea -85Palembang Indonesia -5Yogyakarta Indonesia -12Asahikawa Japan -15Nagasaki Japan -34Sendai Japan -71Taraz Kazakhstan -16Busan Republic of Korea -358Changwon Republic of Korea -35Daegu Republic of Korea -73Seoul Republic of Korea -103

Engines of economic growthShare of cities in GDP (2007)

Sub-region GDP share (%) Population share (%)

China region 74 43South Asia 31 18Southeast Asia 48 21Northeast Asia 71 65Australasia 68 65

Estimated GDP for the largest urban economies in the region(US$ billion; 2010)

Tokyo 1,874.7 Hong Kong 224.5Moscow 325.8 Singapore 222.7Sydney 268.9 Melbourne 221.4Shanghai 250.7 Beijing 206.2Seoul 233.3 Istanbul 188.2

Decreasing urban povertyCountry Year % of urban

population Year % of urban population

Bangladesh 1992 42.7 2010 21.3

India 1994 31.8 2010 20.9

Indonesia 1996 13.6 2012 8.8

Pakistan 1999 20.9 2006 13.1

Thailand 1990 20.5 2011 9

Viet Nam 1993 25.1 2010 6

Emerging middle classCountry

Percentage point

change in population

share

Change in population (million)

Armenia 76.5 2.3Azerbaijan 35.1 3.1Bangladesh 8.3 18.5Cambodia 24 4China 61.4 844.6India 12.8 205Indonesia 46.3 113.7Kazakhstan -6.7 -2.2Kyrgyz Republic -14.9 -0.1Lao PDR 28.9 1.9Malaysia 5.6 6.5Mongolia 24.4 1Nepal -5.8 -0.6Pakistan 36.5 65.9Philippines 12 23.6Sri Lanka -10.1 -0.9Tajikistan -3.9 0.3Thailand 17.6 17.2Turkmenistan 15.2 0.9Viet Nam 57.4 49.3

Living in slums1990 1995 2000 2005 2007

China 43.6 40.5 37.3 32.9 31.0Mongolia 68.5 66.0 0.7 64.9 57.9Bangladesh 87.3 84.7 77.8 70.8 70.8India 54.9 48.2 41.5 34.8 32.1Nepal 70.6 67.3 64.0 60.7 59.4Pakistan 51.0 49.8 48.7 47.5 47.0Cambodia   78.9Indonesia 50.8 42.6 34.4 26.3 23.0Laos 79.3Myanmar 45.6Philippines 54.3 50.8 47.2 43.7 42.3Thailand 26.0Viet Nam 60.5 54.6 48.8 41.3 38.3% Urban living in slums

Inadequate housing  1990 2005 2009

  %million

s %million

s %million

s

Bangladesh 87.3 20.0 70.8 27.8 61.6 27.5

China 43.6 131.7 32.9 183.5 29.1 180.6

India 54.9 121.0 34.8 112.9 29.4 104.7

Indonesia 50.8 27.6 26.3 24.8 23.0 23.3

Nepal 70.6 1.2 60.7 2.6 58.1 3.1

Pakistan 51.0 18.1 47.5 27.2 46.6 30.0

Philippines 54.3 16.5 43.7 18.0 40.9 18.3

Vietnam 60.5 8.1 41.3 9.5 35.2 9.2

Urban InequalityCity Year Gini

Coefficient City Year GiniCoefficient

Chiang Mai 2006 0.58 Colombo 2002 0.46

Hong Kong 2001 0.53 Davao City 2003 0.44

Ho Chi Minh City 2002 0.53 Nonthaburi 2006 0.43

Bangkok 2006 0.48 Kuala Lumpur 1999 0.41

Moscow 2001 0.47 Manila 2006 0.4

No more business as usual…• Cities have outgrown model, i.e. self-contain industries• Climate change type of issues required looking beyond

the "economic", holistic development• Local economic development: centre for peri-urban

areas, smaller cities, neighbouring cities• Dependency on economies of larger cities, driver

regional and/or global development• Cooperation & competition• “Engines” not only large capital/manufacturing centres• From poverty to inequality

The New Urban• Urbanization is a dynamic process – the

composition of urban populations constantly changes, economic opportunities come and go, and new lifestyles and choices continually emerge.

• The analysis, design and implementation of urban programmes and interventions must respond to this new context. Many views and perspectives that dominated urban studies for many years do not apply to the rapidly changing cities of today.

Young cities, old countries•Asia: simultaneous urbanization and ageing•Location of health centres and medical

services tend to favour urban areas•Migrants usually the young•Traditional views of an older person as a

burden•Potential for different social roles•Physical design of cities not ready for older

persons

What women want…Cities offer:• employment and financial independence, • access to better health care, education• creative expression and potential transformation of

traditional gender rolesHowever, • Lack of safety in public spaces and neglect of gender

violence• Failure to understand how women and men experience cities

differently• Most women who migrate to the city end up in a low-paying

job or informal sector work with little income, hazardous working conditions

Informal is normal•Makes the city function: transport,

recycling, waste management, food•Provides livelihood & shelter for

migrants and the poor•Safety net in crisis or jobless growth•Line formal/informal blurred, people &

services move across sector•Formalization/eradication is failing•Need to informalize the formal

Urban diversity•Cultural demographics of cities are

constantly being reshaped▫Internal mobility: communications and

transport▫International migration: trade needs, ease of

transportation & economic demand for labour•Urban diversity driven by macroeconomic

values rather than cultural values•Tension between ethnic & cultural diversity

as an asset, and nationalistic agendas

The rise of secondary cities

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

>105-101-50.5 - 10.5>

Urban population distribution by size of urban settlement

The rise of secondary cities• Increasingly complex systems of cities• Types of secondary cities

▫ subnational administrative centres of government or of a particular resource or function;

▫ clustered secondary cities that grow like mushrooms on the periphery of large urban centres;

▫ economic corridor secondary cities emerging along major transport routes between large cities within countries and across countries.

• Multiple functions▫ Implement national policies and plans▫ Act as centre for the development of their region▫ Compete at the regional or global level

The list continues…•Resilient people: the challenge of climate

change•The need for innovation/technology•The disappearance of the rural-urban

divide•Urban citizens =Digital citizens•Smart cities, creative cities, green cities…•etc.