Urbanization and the WEF Nexus in Asia

Dr. Cecilia Tortajada

Senior Research Fellow

Institute of Water Policy

Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS

The Energy-Water-Food Nexus in Asia

Singapore International Energy Week 2014

30 October 2014

An urbanized world

- 54% of the world population live in urban areas generating more than 80%

of global GDP (60% natural growth, 40% migration)

- 3.9 billion people: about half in settlements of less than 500,000 people

and one in eight live in 28 megacities with more than 10 million people.

- The most urbanized regions are North America (82%), Latin American and

the Caribbean (80%) and Europe (73%).

- Africa and Asia remain mostly rural but are urbanizing faster than any

other regions. Both are projected to become 56% and 64% urban,

respectively, by 2050.

UN, 2014, World Urbanization Prospects 2014 revision.

An urbanized world

- Continuing population growth and urbanization are projected to

add 2.5 billion people to the world’s urban population by 2050,

with nearly 90% of this increase concentrated in Asia and Africa.

- India, China and Nigeria are expected to account for 37% of the

projected growth of the world’s urban population between 2014

and 2050.

UN, 2014, World Urbanization Prospects 2014 revision.

Megacities

Tokyo is the world’s largest city with an agglomeration of 38 million inhabitants.

It is followed by Delhi with 25 million, Shanghai with 23 million, and Mexico City,

Mumbai and São Paulo, each with around 21 million inhabitants.

By 2030, the world is projected to have 41 megacities with more than 10 million

inhabitants. Tokyo is projected to remain the world’s largest city in 2030 with 37

million inhabitants, followed by Delhi (36 million).

Large cities are concentrated in the global South. The fastest growing urban

agglomerations are medium-sized cities and cities with less than 1 million

inhabitants located in Asia and Africa, not megacities.

Asia

The population of Asia and the Pacific will increase from 3.9 billion in

2010 to 4.6 billion in 2035

The most populated country is China with an estimated population

1.35 billion people. Population is projected to peak in 2025 and then

gradually decline.

India’s population is likely to exceed that of China around 2020 and

reach 1.6 billion in 2035.

The PRC and India will account for 64.5% of the region’s total

population in 2035.

Both countries are projected to contribute with more than one third of

the global urban population increase between 2014 and 2050.

ADB Asia Energy Outlook 2014

Why the interest on the water-energy-food nexus in urban areas?

Cities are engines of the economy, places of innovation, connectivity and

innovation as well as services (Cities of Tomorrow)

Create a resilient and inclusive economy with larger populations living in mostly

space-constraint areas where boundaries go beyond the economic, physical,

social, cultural and environmental reality of urban development

Provision of services & quality of life – natural resources that are polluted,

over-exploited, mismanaged and misgoverned

Components of the natural environment are interwoven with those of the

economic, social, cultural and political systems.

Photo: Dr. Olli Varis

The interest on the water-energy-food nexus in urban areas?

Close attention on the relationship between the broader economy and energy

(and thus water because it will be the water available what will determine

energy and food alternatives).

Water security, energy security, food security

(resource use policies, governance, efficiecy, technology, habits)

Infrastructure deficit

ADB estimates that from 2010 to 2020 investments needs for infrastructure

development in the region will be approximately $8 trillion (some 68% for new

capacity investments and 32% to maintain and replace existing infrastructure).

Annual investment needs will reach an approximate $730 billion for the water

and sanitation, energy, telecommunication and transport sectors.

Agriculture

Agriculture has to meet the demand of growing populations projected to

become more urban: more food will be demanded by a population of net food

buyers and food demand will be met by rural and peri-urban areas as well as

food imports.

Agricultural production will be affected by the “expanding cities’ substantial

thirst” for water

Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction, OECD Publishing, Paris

Global water demand: Baseline scenario, 2000 and 2050

Source: International Water Management Institute, 2000, Water Scarcity, Fact or Fiction?

Source: Fischett, M., 2011, How to Double Global Food Production by 2050 and

Reduce Environmental Damage, Scientific American

Water and Energy

Energy demand growing steadily. Expected to increase by 83% between 2011

and 2035 (549 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2011 to 1004 Mtoe in 2035)

Energy production in 2010, water withdrawals were approximately 580 billion

cubic metres of which 70 bcm were consumed (U.S., each kilowatt-hour of

electricity requires about 95 litres of water)

2-3% of world energy consumption is used to pump and treat water for urban

residents and industry.

Source: ENERDATA. Global energy balance 2013 Analysis

G20: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan,

Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom,

United States and the European Union)

12,914 13,395 13,246

7,896 8,438 8,404

2,633 2,944

3,298

605 641 684

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2009 2010 2011

kW

h p

er

cap

ita

United States Singapore China India

ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION

Source: World Bank,

Source: Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific (2013). Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, Asian Development Bank

Estimation of Fossil Fuel Savings Potential in the Alternative Case

IGCC = integrated gasification combined cycle, IGFC = integrated gasification fuel cell, MACC = more advanced

combined cycle, PV = photovoltaic.

New York City Pilot Study by Brookhaven National Laboratory

Determine the key energy-water planning issues for an

urban area - New York City

Develop and apply an integrated energy-water decision-support

tool to facilitate urban energy-water planning (water-efficient appliances; water

supply systems; wastewater treatment)

Challenges (regulatory/policy issues, data, necessary tools, programmatic

issues, etc.)

Development and application of tools and methods

Reference Energy System

Resources: Natural gas, refined oil products, electricity imports

Generation

Transmission and distribution (electricity)

Location

Use:

Lighting

Air conditioning

Space heating

Building miscellaneous

Transportation

Energy demands: water and wastewater systems, transportation, commercial,

Industrial, residential.

Inefficient, old buildings

Increased energy demands for water and wastewater treatment

and transportation

Emissions and climate change

Energy generation:

Aging power plants

Barriers to build new power plants

Emissions and climate change

Energy delivery:

Upgrading infrastructure for electricity, gas and steam delivery

Meeting peak demands

Transmission lines siting and installations

Singapore - Budget 2013

Energy-Efficiency

$40.4 million will be set aside to fund energy efficiency programmes.

Energy Conservation Act (ECA)

Mandatory energy management practices for large energy users stipulated

under the ECA will be implemented on 1 April 2013. NEA will launch a one-

stop Energy Efficiency Promotion Centre (EEPC) to assist and advise

companies in meeting mandatory requirements and to support their efforts to

improve energy efficiency.

Energy Efficiency National Partnership (EENP)

The EENP is a voluntary partnership programme that assists companies to

enhance their business competitiveness and reduce their carbon footprint.

NEA administers several incentive schemes to help companies achieve

energy efficiency:

Design for Efficiency (DfE)

Energy Efficiency Improvement Assistance Scheme (EASe)

Grant for Energy Efficient Technologies (GREET)

Singapore - MEWR

Solar Energy

Promote the use of solar power in housing states, buildings and at public

spaces

Waste Minimization & Recycling

Promote recycling (public education and recycling facilities) Promote less

packing and give incentives for reducing waste

Resource-Efficient Buildings

Collect rainwater and recycle used water for public housing

Reduce the number of lights for common areas or use energy-efficient lights

and lighting sensors

Regulate the use of glass that add to cooling load due to tropical climate

Design apartments to have better natural ventilation and sunning provisions

Greenery and Biodiversity

Encourage community gardening/farming

Plant trees that can provide more shading

Singapore - MEWR

Energy Efficiency

Preventing overcooling and improving energy efficiency in buildings

Saving energy at home

Pollution Control

Keeping vehicle emissions in check

Singapore - U.S. Energy Information Administration

Almost 90% of Singapore's primary energy consumption

comes from petroleum use, mostly for refining.

Singapore has almost no indigenous hydrocarbon resources. Imported crude

goes mostly to the petrochemicals and refining sector.

Imported natural gas fuels most of Singapore's power generation, with small

amounts of coal and renewable resources fueling the rest.

Natural gas use represented nearly 10 % of the country's total primary energy

consumption in 2011. In 2005, natural gas consumption was 233 billion cubic

feet (Bcf) increasing to 331 Bcf in 2012. More than 80% of Singapore’s

electricity is fuelled by piped natural gas.

As natural gas demand continues to grow, the country seeks to augment gas

imported via pipeline with liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

LNG import terminal began operating in second-quarter 2013. This new

capacity will enable Singapore to diversify its suppliers for all its natural gas

imports.

Singapore – Public Utilities Board

Expected total water demand by 2060 (760 Mgal/day), nearly double

of what it was in 2011

By 2060, the production of NEWater is expected to triple to meet 50%

of all demand, compared to 30% in 2011.

Desalination, objective is to intensify capacity by 10-fold to meet 30%

of the long-term water needs mostly coming from commercial and

industrial users.

Combined, both sources are estimated to increase their consumption

share from 40% in 2011 to 80% in 2060.

Technology, more efficient processes and less energy intensive

Singapore – NEWater (treated wastewater)

Energy requirements: average 0.95 kWh/m3

In 2011, the five existing plants could produce about 122 Mgal/day of

NEWater: Bedok (18 Mgal/day); Kranji (17 Mgal/day); Seletar (5 Mgal/day)

(decomissioned), Ulu Pandan (32 Mgl/day); Changi (50 Mgal/day).

The NEWater produced was commercially and industrially utilized in different

production processes:

13.5 Mgal/day - wafer fabrication

19.8 Mgal/day - manufacturing industries including petrochemicals, chemical

and electronics

4.3 Mgal/day - commercial buildings

3.2 Mgal/day - other purposes.

NEWater is also used for cooling towers, and for general washing and toilet

flushing in commercial buildings, etc.

Singapore - Seawater desalination

Desalinated water represents about 10% of water demand. It is expected

to increase to 25% by 2060.

Some 100 million gallons (100,000 m3) of desalinated water is produced/day.

Desalination by reverse-osmosis is very energy intensive (3.4 - 4.8 kWh/m3).

In 2011 – 3.5 kWh/m3

The initial tender figure was $0.78/m3 in 2005; in practice, the actual first year

selling price was approximately half this amount.

In the mid-term, the objective is to reduce energy requirements to 1.5 kWh/m3. In

the long-term, to 0.75 kWh/m3, mostly through technological and management

advancements (Puah, 2011)

Photo: Dr. Olli Varis

The interest on the water-energy-food nexus in urban areas?

Close attention on the relationship between the broader economy and energy

(and thus water).

Water security, energy security, food security

(resource use policies, governance, technology)