urban expansion area task force...2017/12/01 · miami-dade county department of regulatory and...

Miami-Dade County Department of Regula tory and Economic Resources

Urban Expansion Area Task ForceDecember 1, 2017

Jerry Bell, AICPAss is tant Director, P lanning

Kimberly Brown, AICPSupervisor, Long-Range P lanning

Development Considerations


Chapter 163.3177 - Required and optional elements of the comprehensive plan

• Land Supply: The comprehensive plan must be based on at least the minimum amount of land required to accommodate the medium population projections published by BEBR (or other professionally accepted methodology) for at least a 10-year planning period… (Chapter 163.3177(1)(f)(3), Florida Statutes)

• Sprawl Indicators: The future land use element and any amendment to the future land use element shall discourage the proliferation of urban sprawl. (Chapter 163.3177(6)(a)(9), Florida Statutes) • identifies primary indicators to determine if the application

discourages the proliferation of urban sprawl

State Law


The primary indicators that a plan or plan amendment does not discourage the proliferation of urban sprawl are listed below. 1) low-intensity, low-density, or single-use development or uses.2) urban development in rural areas at substantial distances from existing urban areas.3) radial, strip, isolated, or ribbon patterns emanating from existing urban developments.4) Fails to adequately protect and conserve natural resources & significant natural systems.5) Fails to adequately protect adjacent agricultural areas and activities and dormant,

unique, and prime farmlands and soils.6) Fails to maximize use of existing public facilities and services.7) Fails to maximize use of future public facilities and services.8) Increase the cost in time, money, and energy of providing and maintaining facilities &

services.9) Fails to provide a clear separation between rural and urban uses.10) Inhibits infill development or redevelopment of existing neighborhoods and communities.11) Fails to encourage a functional mix of uses.12) Results in poor accessibility among linked or related land uses.13) Results in the loss of significant amounts of functional open space.

State Law


The future land use element or plan amendment shall be determined to discourage the proliferation of urban sprawl if it incorporates a development pattern or urban form that achieves four or more of the following:1) Directs or locates economic growth in a manner that does not have an adverse

impact on and protects natural resources and ecosystems.2) Promotes the efficient, cost-effective provision of public infrastructure and services.3) Promotes walkable and connected communities and provides for compact

development and a mix of uses at densities and intensities that will support a range of housing choices and a multimodal transportation system.

4) Promotes conservation of water and energy.5) Preserves agricultural areas and activities and prime farmlands and soils.6) Preserves open space/natural lands and provides for public open space/recreation.7) Creates a balance of land uses based upon demands of the residential population

for the nonresidential needs of an area.8) Provides uses, densities, and intensities of use and urban form that would

remediate an existing or planned development pattern in the vicinity that constitutes sprawl or provides for an innovative development pattern such as transit-oriented developments or “new towns” as defined in Chapter 163.3164, Florida Statutes.

State Law


CDMP Policy LU-8F. – Demonstration of Need

• Residential. The UDB should contain developable land having capacity to sustain projected countywide residential demand for a period of 10 years after adoption of the most recent Evaluation and Appraisal Report (EAR) plus a 5-year surplus (a total 15-year Countywide supply beyond the date of EAR adoption). The estimation of this capacity shall include the capacity to develop and redevelop around transit stations at the densities recommended in policy LU-7F.

• Non-Residential. The adequacy of non-residential land supplies shall be determined on the basis of land supplies in subareas of the County appropriate to the type of use, as well as the Countywide supply within the UDB. The adequacy of land supplies for neighborhood- and community-oriented business and office uses shall be determined on the basis of localized subarea geography such as Census Tracts, Minor Statistical Areas (MSAs) and combinations thereof. Tiers, Half-Tiers and combinations thereof shall be considered along with the Countywide supply when evaluating the adequacy of land supplies for regional commercial and industrial activities.

UDB Expansion Criteria


Policy LU-8H – Criteria (after need is demonstrated in accordance with LU-8F) • Applications requesting expansion of the UDB must:

1) provide for non-residential needs of future residents;2) have a min. density of ten (10) dwelling units per acre;3) residential development must participate in the Purchase of

Development Rights, Transfer of Development Rights or other County program(s) geared to protecting agricultural and/or environmentally sensitive lands

4) have a min. intensity of 0.25 FAR;5) provide buffering to adjacent agricultural lands;6) promote bicycle and pedestrian accessibility;7) not inhibit infill and redevelopment efforts within the UDB;8) not leave intervening parcels outside of the UDB; 9) have a positive net fiscal impact to the County.



Policy LU-8G. The following areas shall begiven priority for inclusion in the UDB (after needis demonstrated in accordance with LU-8F)

a) Land within Planning Analysis Tiers having the earliest projected supply depletion year; and

b) Land within the UEAs and contiguous to the UDB; and

c) Locations within one mile of a planned urban center or extraordinary transit service; and

d) Locations having projected surplus service capacity or where necessary facilities and services can be readily extended.



Chapter 163.3177(3)(a), Florida Statutes. The future land use element shall include criteria to achieve the compatibility of lands adjacent or closely proximate to military installations

CDMP Policy LU-8G. Areas within the HARB accident potential zones shall not be considered for UDB expansion

HARB Zoning Ord. Buildings of public assembly prohibited within APZs and 75 dB noise contour. Height restrictions for areas within flight path.

Commanding Officer is a “reviewing agency” for land use plan amendments near HARB –reviews for compliance with military plans and adverse impacts to mission.

Military Compatibility


Miami-Dade County Department of Regula tory and Economic Resources ,

P lanning Divis ion

Jerry Bell, AICPAss is tant Director, P lanning

Kimberly Brown, AICPSupervisor, Long-Range P lanning

www.miamidade.gov/planning/ear-2018.asp

Methodology: Land Use Capacity and Demand Analysis

DEPARTMENT OF REGULATORY AND ECONOMIC RESOURCES | PLANNING RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION

Planning Research and Economic Analysis Section

Residential Capacity and Demand

DEPARTMENT OF REGULATORY AND ECONOMIC RESOURCES | PLANNING RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION 2

CAPACITY ANALYSIS


Available Residential Capacity Equals:

Units from Vacant LandPLUS

Units from Approved DevelopmentPLUS

Units from Redevelopment Potential

RESIDENTIAL

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CAPACITY ANALYSIS


RESIDENTIAL





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Units from Vacant LandCapacity is determined as follows:

• Based on existing land use, zoning, municipal plans, covenants and other legal restrictions.

• The net capacity of the vacant land =

The gross capacity (100% of a sites allowable capacity)

MINUS20% to allow for Build-out Limitations

MINUS3% to account for the existence of small

vacant or underutilized parcels.

RESIDENTIALCAPACITY ANALYSIS

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Units from Approved Development Projects

• Projects analyzed are large-scale projects approved by Miami-Dade County or a municipality and which have an unexpired permit.

• Capacity is determined as follows:

1. Capacity of projects yet to start construction at the time of the analysis is reduced by 50% due to the possibility that they will never commence.

2. Capacity of projects under construction at the time of the analysis is counted at 100%.


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Units from Redevelopment Potential• Only existing residential parcels and parking lots are

currently analyzed to evaluate redevelopment potential (excluding single-family-type parcels).

• Only parcels inside the Urban Infill Area are considered.

1. The building-to-land value ratio (Building Value/Land Value) must be 0.75 or lower.

2. The structure must have been built before 1970.

• Requirements:

3. The ratio of allowable-to-existing density must be 4-to-1.

4. The parcel must be greater than 0.25 acres.• The net increase in units is added to capacity.


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DEMAND ANALYSIS


Residential Demand Analysis• Begins with the Countywide and MSA population

projections.• Population projections entail a two-step process:

1. Using a widely-accepted peer-reviewed component methodology incorporating births, deaths, and international and domestic in-migration and out-migration, a countywide population projection is developed for the planning horizon.

2. Using a mathematical algorithm incorporating historical population trends and the remaining residential capacity in each area, the countywide projection is then allocated to each of the 32 minor statistical areas (MSAs).

RESIDENTIAL

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DEPARTMENT OF REGULATORY AND ECONOMIC SO C S A G S A C A

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Residential Demand Analysis (continued)

• The MSA population projections are converted to projected MSA single-family and multifamily housing-unit demand by applying the persons-per-household estimates by housing type from the most recent Census data.

• Housing demand is adjusted downward to account for seasonal or second homes using Census data.

RESIDENTIALDEMAND ANALYSIS

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DEPLETION ANALYSIS


Net capacity (or deficit) is then computed in 5-year intervals over the planning horizon.

Net Capacity (or deficit)

= Total Adjusted Capacity of Housing Units

- Total Adjusted Demand for Housing Units

The year if/when Total Adjusted Capacity = Total Adjusted Demand is defined as the Depletion Year.

RESIDENTIAL

Residential Demand Analysis (continued)

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DEPLETION ANALYSIS


RESIDENTIAL

Summary

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1. Available Residential Capacity in units is calculated from vacant land, approved development and potential redevelopment.

2. Population projections are developed for MSAs and countywide. These are then converted to housing unit demand using Census data ratios.

3. Available capacity is compared to projected demand by MSAs and countywide to calculate the depletion years.


Please take note: Projections are neither predictions of future outcomes nor depictions of desired outcomes. They represent an indication of future outcomes based on historical and current data and the assumptions presented above. Experience shows that Miami-Dade County population growth and, therefore, the housing market, is subject to abrupt and sizable changes due to a myriad of possible unforeseen internal and external events. Therefore the future may look very different from the projections.

RESIDENTIALDEPLETION ANALYSIS

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Non-Residential Capacity and Demand

DEPARTMENT OF REGULATORY AND ECONOMIC RESOURCES | PLANNING RESEARCH AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SECTION 16

COMMERCIAL


Overview

NON-RESIDENTIAL

• Commercial capacity and demand projections are measured by acreage of land use in commercial activities.

• Commercial Land Use Sectors include:

Retail TradeWholesale TradeFinance, Insurance, Real Estate and Rental and LeasingProfessional and Business Services

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Education and Health ServicesLeisure and HospitalityOther Services

COMMERCIAL


Methodology

NON-RESIDENTIAL

The first step in projecting future demand for commercial land is to obtain historical control totals for:

Commercial Acreage Miami-Dade Land use GIS Files

Commercial EmploymentUS Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEWS)

Population Totals US Census Bureau

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COMMERCIAL


Methodology

NON-RESIDENTIAL

Based on analysis of North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) by Sector, and for the purposes of estimating the control totals, Commercial Employment includes:

100% of Employment in Retail Trade; Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

75% of Employment in Professional and Business Services; Education and Health Services; Leisure and Hospitality; and, Other Services

8% of Employment in Wholesale Trade

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95% of Employment in Information

COMMERCIAL


Methodology

NON-RESIDENTIAL

1. Using the historical control totals noted above, a linear regression is run to estimate Commercial Acreage from Population and Commercial Employment.

2. The regression coefficients obtained in step one above, Commercial Demand Coefficients, are then applied to population and employment projections independently derived by Planning Research and Economic Analysis staff, to generate the projected demand for commercial land uses.

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COMMERCIAL


Methodology

NON-RESIDENTIAL

Next, the projected countywide demand for commercial land is allocated to each MSA.

The historical trend of the average annual change for “in-use” commercial land is calculated in each MSA. The change is either positive, negative or zero.

• If this average change is negative or zero the MSA’s share of projected countywide demand growth is set to zero.

• If the average change is positive the MSA’s “in-use” growth rate is averaged with the population growth rate to ensure the fastest growing MSAs will capture the largest share of projected commercial demand growth.

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COMMERCIAL


Methodology

NON-RESIDENTIAL

Finally, the projected demand for commercial land in each Tier and MSA is the basis for an absorption and depletion rate to be applied to the physical supply of commercial land.

The end result is a depletion year for commercial land uses by MSA, tier and countywide to be used in the CDMP amendment process.

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COMMERCIAL


Summary

NON-RESIDENTIAL

1. Historical control totals are developed for commercial acreage, commercial employment, and population.

3. The commercial demand coefficients are applied to the population and employment projections to calculate projected demand for commercial land.

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2. Utilizing the historical control totals, a linear regression is run to estimate commercial demand coefficients for population and employment.

4. Based on the growth of “in-use” commercial land and population growth rates, projected demand for commercial land is allocated across MSAs.

5. Projected demand for commercial land is compared to the physical supply to calculate the depletion years for MSAs and countywide.

INDUSTRIAL


Methodology

NON-RESIDENTIAL

The methodology for projecting demand for industrial land is very similar to that for commercial land. The first step in is to obtain historical control totals for:

Industrial Acreage Miami-Dade Land use GIS Files

Industrial EmploymentUS Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEWS)

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Industrial


Methodology

NON-RESIDENTIAL

The historical industrial acreage and employment data allow for the calculation of the ratio of industrial land to industrial employee, the Industrial Demand Ratio. (Avg. Annual Industrial Acreage/Avg. Annual Industrial Employment)

This Industrial Demand Ratio is applied to the industrial employment projections independently derived by the Planning Research and Economic Analysis staff to generate the countywide projected demand for industrial land.

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Industrial


Methodology

NON-RESIDENTIAL

Industrial employment is defined as:

100% of Manufacturing employment92% of Wholesale Trade employment30% of Construction employment20% of Transportation and Warehousing employment15% of Other Services employment

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Industrial


Methodology

NON-RESIDENTIAL

Next, the countywide projected demand for industrial land is allocated across each MSA.

The historical trend of the average annual change for “in-use” industrial land is calculated in each MSA. The change is either positive, negative or zero.

• If this average change is negative or zero the MSA’s share of projected countywide demand growth is set to zero.

• For all of the MSAs where the average change is positive, the growth in countywide demand for industrial land is allocated proportionately to each according to it’s historic “in-use” rate of growth.

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Industrial


Methodology

NON-RESIDENTIAL

Finally, the projected demand for industrial land in each Tier and MSA is the basis for an absorption and depletion rate to be applied to the physical supply of industrial land.

The end result is a depletion year for industrial land uses by MSA, tier and countywide to be used in the CDMP amendment process.

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INDUSTRIAL


Summary

NON-RESIDENTIAL

1. Historical control totals are developed for industrial acreage and industrial employment.

3. The industrial demand ratio is applied to the employment projections to calculate projected demand for industrial land.

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2. Utilizing the historical control totals, an industrial demand ratio is calculated.

4. Based on the growth of “in-use” industrial land, projected demand for industrial land is allocated across MSAs.

5. Projected demand for industrial land is compared to the physical supply to calculate the depletion years for MSAs and countywide.


Miami-Dade CountyDepartment of Regulatory and Economic Resources

Jack Osterholt, DirectorLourdes Gomez, Deputy Director

Jerry Bell, Assistant Director of PlanningManuel Armada, Chief, Planning Research and Economic Analysis

Copies of this presentation are available from:

The Planning Research and Economic Analysis Section

Stephen P. Clark Center, Suite 1220111 NW 1st Street

Miami, Florida 33128-1972(305) 375-2845

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

Headquarters U.S. Air Force

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Homestead Air Reserve Baseand Compatible Land Use

Larry Ventura, Homestead Air Reserve Base

December 1, 2017

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 2

Homestead ARB Background

Host: 482d Fighter Wing Mission: Air Superiority using the F-16C

Major tenants U.S. Special Operations Command South (SOCSOUTH) Florida Air National Guard (FANG), Det 1 Florida Army National Guard, 50th Regional Support Group U.S. Customs and Border Patrol U.S. Coast Guard Maritime Safety and Security Team Miami Golden Knights – U.S. Army Parachute Team (seasonal

tenant)

Future Operations F-35 basing considerations

2


Homestead ARB Impact

Homestead ARB is a major economic force in the City of Homestead and the southern Miami-Dade County region Second largest employer in southern

Miami-Dade County Est. $300 million injected into the local economy in 2016 Base draws skilled and desirable workforce 2,681 personnel, including 1,774 Reservists

As Homestead ARB grows, so does the City of Homestead and southern Miami-Dade County A candidate for the Department of Defense’s next

generation strike aircraft weapon system, the F-35 Lightning II

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Safety and Noise Zones

Safety areas known as clear zones and accident potential zones are subject to increased risk and high levels of aircraft noise on a daily basis

Noise zones are developed based on day-night average A-weight sound level (DNL) noise metric for aircraft noise exposure

Noise footprint is not static and can also change over time


Changing Noise Contours

1975



1988



2004 and 2007 (current)



?


Explosive Ordnance Disposal

Range EOD range activities

expose surrounding community to loud noises and vibrations

Explosive safety quantity distance (ESQD) arcs Land use safety

restrictions associated with 120-acre munitions storage


Imaginary Surfaces


Encroachment

Encroachment: Actions or activities that would impact current or future military activities, including growing competition for land and airspace

Urban encroachment poses a significant threat to Homestead ARB and its operations South Florida continues to experience significant growth and

development, including near Homestead ARB Homestead ARB operations may not be compatible with

planned developments within or near the safety and noise zones and ESQD arcs

Expansion of the UDB and UEA near the base allows for future incompatibility and limits the base’s potential

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Urban Growth near Homestead ARB

(1984-2016)

2007 AICUZ Study

Nearby residential development in 1984 was largely within the boundary of then-Homestead Air Force Base, which was downsized after Hurricane Andrew in 1992

Imagery credit: Google Earth Engine Timelapse


AV-8B Harrier Accident,

MCAS Yuma AZ

June 2005


F/A-18 Hornet Accident, MCAS Miramar, CA

14December 2008


B-52 Accident, Anderson AFB, Guam

15May 2016


KC-130T Accident, Western MS

16July 2017


AC-5 Accident, Dover AFB, NJ

April 2006


Hotel Accident

C-130 Accident, Evansville IN

February 1992

16 killed – 5 Crew, 9 from motel and 2 in the restaurant

15 injured Aircraft conducting

practice routine landings and takeoffs


F-16 Accident

Made an emergency landing short of the runway at Wickenburg municipal airport after losing engine power

October 2009


Homestead ARB Flight

Emergencies

Tank 1

Tank 2

June 2010

June 2010 - HARB plane had to jettison its two fuel tanks over Biscayne National Park

August 2016 –HARB F-16 crashed into safety barrier off the runway due to aborted takeoff


Chapter 163, Florida Statutes

Under 163.3161, the Community Planning Act, “It is the intent of this part

that the traditional economic base of this state, agriculture, tourism, and military presence, be recognized and protected.”

Under 163.3175, compatibility of development with military installations, “the legislature finds it desirable for the local governments in the state

to cooperate with military installations to encourage compatible land use, help prevent incompatible encroachment, and facilitate the continued presence of major military installations in this state.”

Under 163.3177, “Local governments required to update or amend their

comprehensive plan to include criteria and address compatibility of lands adjacent or closely proximate to existing military installations,...in their future land use plan element shall transmit the update or amendment to the state land planning agency by June 30, 2012.”

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Encroachment Context near

UDB and UEA

Potential Incompatibility1950s housing for transient farm workers located in APZ I

County’s Urban

Development Boundary under constant urbanization pressure

Incompatible zoning/future land use discrepancy


Conclusion

UDB is the base’s first and best lines of defense against

encroachment and protects the vital assets of Homestead ARB

Continued urbanization toward Homestead ARB may eventually prevent or curtail the ability to train as we fight (You fight as you

train)

Protecting compatible land use and mitigating incompatible land use is a dynamic process

Future Homestead ARB missions may include other aircraft, expanded noise contours, expanded ammunition storage, etc. and urbanization could limit future expansion

Planning decisions made today have untold effects on the future

Mission readiness depends on community commitment to protect

the base from encroachment

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DISCUSSION

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Urban Centers near the UDBUEA Task Force Dec. 1, 2017

Miami-Dade County RER Development Services

Naranja Community Urban Center

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West Kendall CorridorStudy Area

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West Kendall CorridorStudy Area

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West Kendall CorridorMarch 1, 2014 Public Workshop

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West Kendall CorridorCitizens’ Plans – Consensus Elements

• Develop mixed uses

• Provide a civic center

• Develop more employment areas

• Provide location for farmer’s markets

• More open space

• More bicycle/pedestrian paths

• Improved transit service

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West Kendall CorridorCitizens’ Plans

Bike lanes with buffers from carsBike lanes connected to parksMore street lights – ornamentalEntrance markers on Kendall at 137th and Krome AvenuesUpscale retail and mixed uses at the Kendall Town Center with parks and civic buildings

UEA should be a buffer to Krome Avenue with a farmer’s market and horse stablesExpress buses and park and ride for 836 extensionNeed lighting and additional activities in parksNeed additional spaces at park and ride facilitiesNeed additional employment opportunities

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Need Shade trees and gathering placesNeed mixed uses at the Town center/Heart of the communityProvide a native animal park north of KendallNeed a farmer’s market and trolley serviceHave an organic institute-place to teach how to grow foodMore office/work places

Provide places for arts and cultureKendale Lakes Mall – old and uninviting; add more retail along Kendall for visibility; build parking garages; add more destination shopping, better tenants; add mixed uses inc. residentialMake streets safer, increase pedestrian crossing time and have crosswalks on each corner

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West Kendall should become a city to provide for enhanced servicesA Town Center should be developed Land in the Expansion Area should be used for mixed uses, open space, bike lanes and Vertical farming equal to the amount of land being developed

Business/industrial park with 10,000 jobs; various densities, mixed usesIncreased density needed to provide for desired things836 Expressway extension neededProvide passenger service on the CSX railroad

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Improve Kendall Drive with shade treesImprove 137th Avenue to 6 lanes from Kendall to MillerLimit types of businesses such as car dealers and pawn shopsWiden Krome Avenue for improved access to the northImplement signage and architecture standards

Need to regulate food trucksNeed green architecture and developmentProvide Trolley ServiceLive/work development in Town CenterExtend 836 Expressway to Kendall

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Need an upscale hotelLarge park and gardens in the UEA with mixed uses along KendallKendall Town Center should have shopping, entertainment/movie theater, offices, performing arts/museum, government center/courthouse

Dedicated bus lanes/Metrorail to FIUNeed more traffic calming/traffic circlesNeed a local trolley serviceNeed shaded sidewalksNeed more Bicycle paths

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ParksShopping Bicycle trailsCity hallHotelFarmer’s market

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137th and Kendall area should become mixed-use with civic facilitiesMixed-use development at the Kendall Town Center, walkable and attractive, provide workplaces to provide employmentEnhanced bus lanes along Kendall in a dedicated right of way, don’t remove lanes from Kendall, provide increased frequencies

Don’t move the UDB Don’t build more expresswaysProvide a trolley serviceFarmer’s market in the UEALarge park in in the UEA

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West Kendall CorridorPlanning Process Goals

• Create a vision for the future

• Transform West Kendall to a destination

• Enhance livability

• Provide transportation options

• Encourage a mix of uses

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West Kendall CorridorFuture Land Use Plan

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West Kendall CorridorFuture Land Use Plan

urban expansion area task force...2017/12/01 · miami-dade county department of regulatory and...

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