Upgrades to the Rapid intensification index (RII)

John Kaplan (NOAA/HRD), Christopher Rozoff (CIMSS), Charles Sampson (NRL), James Kossin (NOAA/NCDC), Christopher Velden (CIMSS),

Mark DeMaria (NOAA/NESDIS)

Acknowledgements:

JHT NHC points of contact: Christopher Landsea, Eric Blake, Stacy Stewart

Computer programming support: Paul Leighton (NOAA/HRD)

This work was partially supported by a grant from the NOAA/JHT

2013 RI model upgrades/plans

The following upgrades to the RII are currently being developed/implemented as part of an ongoing JHT project:

1. Upgraded versions of the multi-lead time (Kaplan et al. 2010) and consensus RI models (Rozoff and Kossin 2011) have been developed and are presently running in real-time at CIRA in Fort Collins, CO..

2. A new Microwave-based RI model is being developed and tested in real-time (Rozoff et al. 2012).

3. New rapid aid guidance (Sampson et al. 2011) is being developed to utilize the newly developed multi-lead time consensus and microwave-based RI models.

Multi-lead time consensus RI models

New 2013 versions of SHIPS, Logistic, and Bayesian RI models as well as their consensus (average of the SHIPS, Logistic, and Bayesian model forecasts) were developed utilizing the updated SHIPS 1995-2012 developmental database.

The new models were developed to estimate the probability of RI for both Atlantic and E. Pacific systems for the the following lead times/RI thresholds: 20-kt/12-h, 25-kt/24h, 30-kt/24-h, 35-kt/24-h, 40kt/24-h, 45-kt/36-h, and 55-kt/48-h.

Cross-validated skill of the 2003-2012 multi-lead time RI model forecasts

Atlantic basin RI forecasts E. Pacific basin RI forecasts

Reliability diagrams for the 2003-2012 cross-validated RI model forecasts

Atlantic basin RI forecasts E. Pacific basin RI forecasts

Sample Parallel RI output for AL05 on 8/16/13 (ftp://rammftp.cira.colostate.edu/DeMaria/nhcpg

2013 Operational RII with TPW and other model enhancements (adopted by NHC May 2012)

Lightning-based RII (GOES-R proving ground)

Multi-lead time/consensus RI models (JHT)

Microwave Imagery-based predictors• Goal: Adapt real-time RI models to include objective, skill-enhancing passive microwave

(MW) imagery-based predictors.

• Proof-of-concept: As shown in Rozoff et al. (2012; 30th AMS Conf. Hurricanes Trop. Meteor.), the logistic regression model for RI that incorporated 19-, 37-, and 85-GHz passive MW-based predictors (SSM/I, AMSR-E, WINDSAT, TMI, 1995-2008) improved the skill of RI forecasts.

Brier skill relative to climatology for Atlantic TCs

with Vmax > 25-kt (blue/cyan bars) and for

systems with Vmax > 45 kt (orange/ brown bars).

Light blue and orange bars depict skill of

baseline RII without microwave data, while

cyan and brown bars show skill of RII when

microwave data are included.

• Status: Bayesian and logistic regression models updated to include MW-based predictors developed from 1995-2012 data. SSMI/S has been added as well. Currently working on bug fix in the real-time implementation of the updated models. Once corrected, the ATL & EP 2013 season will be be re-run with real-time data. Scripts, results, and all data for real-time forecasts will be provided and/or available with the final report.