update for cpdpc joint science & operations subcommittees · • insecticide treatments are...
TRANSCRIPT
Update for CPDPC Joint Science & Operations Subcommittees
Neil McRobertsJuly 8, 2020
Effectiveness of HLB+ tree removal
• Previous modeling work implies that removing HLB+ trees had some benefit compared to doing nothing
Effectiveness of HLB+ tree removal
• Agent-based model added functionality to implement a delimitation strategy: responding to HLB+ trees detected by survey
• Preliminary work underway; modeled scenarios (e.g control strategies) will be refined
• Figure here represents average +/- se of 5 replicated simulations for each strategy
None: No control strategy implementedChemical & Removal: risk-based survey 2x/year & HLB+ trees are removed, citrus is treated with once with insecticide in Jan/FebChem, Removal, Delim: same as Chemical & Removal, but with 100% survey & spray of properties in a 400m radius around an HLB+ tree
Regulatory Working Group Update CPDPC – OPERATIONS / SCIENCE SUBCOMMITTEE MEETING
JULY 8, 2020
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Working Group Tasks Evaluate data and justification for splitting ACP Bulk Citrus Zone 5
Evaluate a QC permit to ship fruit into the HLB quarantine
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ACP Bulk Citrus Zone 5 Split ~n Las Vegas
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Zone 1
Zone 2
Proposed Zon e Sa
Proposed Zone Sb
Zone 6
Map Printed: 5/27/2020
Citrus Layer
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ACP Bulk Citrus Zone 5 Split Citrus Layer, Packing Houses as Vegas
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• Commercial Citrus
~ HLB Quarantine
Bulk Citrus Regional Quarantine
Zone 1
Zone 2
Proposed Zone Sa
Proposed Zone Sb
Zone 6
Map Printed: 6/10/2020
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3
Revised Proposal Keep current Zone 5 intact
Create systematic response to isolated HLB detections
Issue a permit to move fruit into an HLB quarantine (modified QC 1486)
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Permit Systematic Approach Only the surrounding zone may ship fruit into an HLBQ without mitigation. ◦ Tarping
◦ Pre-shipment notification
Only Zone 5 may ship into the Riverside/SB HLBQ
Similar permit would be issued for future isolated HLBQ with packinghouses
5
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Citrus Regional Quarantine
Zone 1
• zone2
·I- Zone 3
Zone 4
• zones
• zone6
Zone 7
~ HLB Quarantine
■ Packing House
'"" CITRUS PEST & DISEASE PREVENTION DIVISION
Map Printed 7/1/2020
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Bulk Citrus Regional Quarantine
Zone 1
• zone2
·I- Zone 3
Zone 4
• zones
• zone6
Zone 7
0 ~ HLB Quarantine
■ Packing House
'"" CITRUS PEST & DISEASE PREVENTION DIVISION
Map Printed 7/1/2020
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Hypothetical HLBQ
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Systematic Approach
ADVANTAGES
Reduces unintended consequence of revoking QC 1486
Does not require splitting Zone 5
Reduces required inspections and program cost
Approach applies to future HLBQ areas
DISADVANTAGES
Potentially adding more ACP to HLBQ area
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Should the buffer treatments be reduced from 400m?
Issues inhibiting success of border sprays
• Residential Acceptance/Availability • Timeliness of applications • Acceptance * Distance • Tree identity
Residential Acceptance/Availability
• Data provided by Anmol Joshi at CDFA • Provided with data for the following areas: Ventura, Ojai,
Camarillo, San Diego, UCR, San Bernardino, Santa Paula,Santa Barbara, Imperial, Hemet, Coachella
• Total properties considered, Total properties treated, No-Contact, Refusal
• Chose locations with 4 or more data points • Provided for Winter and Fall treatments • 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019
• Separated into Coastal Areas and Inland
Trends
• Refusals usually under 20% • Treatments are only going onto < 60% of properties • No contact with host more influential than outright
refusal
Timeliness of applications & distance
• Insecticide treatments are going to cause adult ACP to move • Movement will likely be to nearest citrus tree, which could be grove • Highly problematic in regions where systemic insecticide is not an
option • Setamou mark recapture study (not yet published, conversation on 9
June 2020) suggests that ACP are mostly coming from residential that is 100ft away from the grove
Tree identity
• CDFA is unable to provide this data in digital form • Critical to risk assessment as lemons can host more ACP/year • In CA, conservatively, we should assume it is mostly/all lemons
Recommendation
• Reduce the distance of border treatments to 100-200 meters
• Two-week treatment window • Critical to address the first 100ft first • Critical to address the amount of no contact with
owners since this is contributing to the lack of treatments more than refusals