united states world agricultural service production · european union wheat: rains improve crop...
TRANSCRIPT
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign
Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 10-14 October 2014
Australia Wheat: Variable Growing Conditions Lower Production
Australia wheat production for 2014/15 is forecast at 25.0 million tons, down 0.5 million tons or 2.0 percent from last month, and down 2.0 million tons or 7.4 percent from last year. The area forecast is 13.8 million hectares, unchanged from last month but up 0.3 million or 2.2 percent from last year. Since major sowing operations commenced in May, periods of dryness have plagued the Australian wheat producing states at varying times. Yield is forecast at 1.81 tons per hectare, which is below the 5-year average of 1.90 tons per hectare. September precipitation is the most influential factor for determining Australia’s wheat yield. Nationwide, the wheat crop faces mixed prospects heading into spring, reflecting below-average September rainfall in the eastern wheat belt while Western Australia, the largest producing state, received beneficial rains. For more information, please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)
World Agricultural Production
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
European Union Wheat: Rains Improve Crop Potential to Record, but Reduce Quality Wheat production for 2014/15 in the European Union (EU) is estimated at a record 154.0 million tons, up 3.0 million tons or 2.0 percent from last month, up 10.8 million tons or 7.6 percent from last year, and up 11 percent from the 5-year average of 138.3 million tons. Area is estimated at 26.6 million hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 3.1 percent or 0.8 million hectares from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 5.79 tons per hectare, up 1.9 percent from last month, up 4.3 percent from last year and up 8.5 percent from the average.
Harvesting is now finished in the EU and production is being revised upward. Rain during the wheat’s grainfill stage in June and July greatly boosted yields, turning a crop that had been moisture deficient into a bin-buster, albeit with quality issues. The quality issues, derived from rains that persisted into August and September, are delaying harvest and lowering baking properties. The biggest revision this month is for Germany where production is up 1.35 million tons or 5 percent from last month. Summer rains improved the crop to a record 27.5 million tons and to a record 8.54 tons per hectare yield. The story is the same in other Central European countries such as the Czech Republic, where the output is estimated to be at a record 5.2 million tons and yield is a record 6.24 tons per hectare. Polish production is up 0.35 million tons to a record 10.6 million tons and yield is at a record 4.82 tons per hectare. In addition, wheat is also up in the United Kingdom by 0.35 million, 0.34 million in Hungary, and 0.15 million tons in Sweden. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.) Russia Corn: Record Area Contributes to Near-Record Crop Russia corn production for 2014/15 is estimated by USDA at 12.0 million tons, down 0.5 million tons or 4.0 percent from last month, but up 0.4 million or 3.1 percent from last year’s record crop. Estimated harvested area is increased by 0.1 million hectares, to a record 2.6 million, based on preliminary harvest data from the Ministry of Agriculture. Yield is estimated at 4.62 tons per hectare, down 7.7 percent from both last month and last year but 14.6 percent above the 5-year average.
2
October 2014
The corn harvest was 52 percent complete as of October 8, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, with cumulative yield down 9 percent from last year. In the Southern District (the country’s top corn-producing region, with about 40 percent of total output), harvest was 78 percent complete with yield down 2 percent. In the Central District (30 percent), harvest was 43 percent complete with yield down 30 percent due chiefly to excessive heat during the growing season. Despite the year-to-year drop in yield, this year’s estimated corn harvest will stand as the second-highest on record. This is the result mainly of record area, but corn yield in Russia has benefited from a steady 10-year increase in the use of imported hybrid seed. (For more information, please contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.) Ukraine Corn: Harvest Reports Indicate Average Yield USDA forecasts Ukraine corn production for 2014/15 at 25.0 million tons, down 1.0 million or 3.8 percent from last month and down 5.9 million or 19 percent from last year’s record output. Harvested area remains unchanged at 4.6 million hectares against 4.8 million last year. Yield is estimated at 5.43 tons per hectare, down 15 percent from last year’s near-record level and matching the 5-year average. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the corn harvest was one-third complete as of October 3, with cumulative yield standing at 4.72 tons per hectare compared to 5.64 tons per hectare by the same date last year. Cumulative yield typically increases throughout October and November as the harvest campaign advances into the higher-yielding north-central territories. Despite a 20-percent increase in the use of imported hybrid seed, this year’s reported yield to date is down about 15 percent from last year’s record. The yield reduction is likely due to two factors. Although the overall weather during the growing season was not remarkably unfavorable, satellite imagery indicates crop stress in several key corn territories in central and south-central Ukraine during late July and early August. In addition, prices for mineral fertilizer and imported agricultural chemicals (including herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides) increased by an estimated 25 percent this season following a significant drop in the value of the hyrvna (UAH). (For more information, please contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.) European Union Corn: Abundant, Late Summer Rainfall Yields Record Crop Corn production in the European Union (EU) is estimated at a record 71.0 million tons, up 3.9 percent or 2.7 million tons from last month, up 11 percent from last year, and up 15 percent from the 5-year average. Area is estimated at 9.6 million hectares, up 0.05 million hectares from last month, but down 0.2 million hectares from last year. Yield is estimated at 7.43 tons per hectare, up 3.4 percent from last month, 13 percent above last year, and 9.5 percent above the 5-year average.
3
October 2014
Corn has benefitted from very heavy rainfall that occurred throughout most of Europe for the latter half of the summer. Though harvesting is underway, delays are occurring through areas in southeast Europe where rainfall has continued during the campaign. The rain is not expected to damage the crop. Within the EU, corn production was raised in many of its biggest corn-producing nations. Production was raised 0.6 million tons in France, the single largest corn producer, to a record 17.0 million tons, 16 percent higher than last year. France’s 2014/15 yield is estimated at 9.71 tons per hectare, 16 percent higher than last year’s poor crop. Production was also raised in Italy by 0.5 million tons to 8.2 million. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovakia also received beneficial rainfall that increased their crop totals. Hungary was revised up 0.5 million tons to 8.5 million, Romania’s crop is up 0.5 million to 10.6 million tons, and Slovakia’s crop is up 0.17 million to a record 1.6 million tons. (For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.) European Union Barley: Crop Larger than Expected Barley production in the European Union (EU) is estimated at 59.3 million tons, up 2.3 million tons or 4 percent from last month, down 0.4 million tons or 0.6 percent from last year, and up 4.9 percent above the 56.5 million ton 5-year average. Area is estimated at 12.5 million hectares unchanged from last month, but up 1 percent or 0.1 million hectares last year. Yield is estimated at 4.75 tons per hectare, up 3.9 percent from last month, down 1.6 percent from last year, and up 6.5 percent from the 5-year average. Barley is cultivated throughout Europe. It is comprised of both winter (autumn-sown) and summer (spring-sown) varieties. The typical EU barley split is more toward spring varieties than to autumn-sown varieties. In addition to feed uses, the spring crop is often used in the brewing industry. Spring barley is also more prevalent in the northern countries, such as the United Kingdom, the Baltics, and Scandinavia. The ratio of spring to winter barley production is much more evenly split than the planted area ratio, due to the higher yields associated with winter barley. Rain during June and July boosted yields, particularly of later-growing spring barley. As harvest results are being released, production is being revised upward. The biggest revision to this month’s estimates is for Germany, where production is up 9 percent or 0.9 million tons. In addition, other large revisions include France, up 0.4 million tons to 11.75 million, and the United Kingdom, up 0.35 million tons to 6.5 million tons. Although down 30 percent from last year’s crop (due to spring drought), Spain’s 2014/15 production is revised up 0.3 million tons to 7.0 million, based on Agricultural Ministry data. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)
Canada Rapeseed: Estimated Production Revised Down From Last Month
USDA estimates 2014/2015 Canada rapeseed production at 14.4 million tons, down 2.0 percent from last month and down 20 percent from last year’s record level. Area is estimated at 7.80 million hectares, up 0.6 percent from last month but down 2.6 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 1.85 tons per hectare, down 3 percent from last month and down 18 percent from last year’s record yield. Yield is slightly below the 5-year average.
4
October 2014
The month-to-month revision is based on the Statistics Canada’s Principal Field Crops October report. Provincial reports indicate that yields will be above average in Alberta and Manitoba,
which produce 35 percent and 15 percent of the total crop, respectively. In Saskatchewan, the major producer, yields are expected to be average, despite less than ideal growing season and late plantings.
Harvest progress is behind the 5-year average across the Western Prairies because of late plantings and cool, wet and snowy conditions in mid-September. Warm and dry weather returned to the prairies in late September and harvest has resumed. Alberta and Saskatchewan
report that roughly 50 percent has been harvested, while Manitoba reported that at least 30 percent was harvested by the end of September. (For more information please contact, Arnella Trent 202-720-0881.)
India Rice: Prospects for Production Continue to Decline India's 2014/15 rice production is forecast at 102 million tons, down 1 million metric tons or 1.0 percent from last month and down 4.3 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 43.5 million hectares, down 1.0 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at 3.52 tons per hectare, down 3.4 percent from last year. The 2014 monsoon rainfall across India started late and was generally poorly distributed across the nation. The late start and below normal rainfall slowed rice seedling nursery preparations, resulting in delayed transplanting which subsequently affected overall area planted especially in Utter Pradesh, Bihar, and western Haryana. USDA’s yield simulation models indicate lower productivity prospects compared to the earlier projections. In September the rice crop in the northern states of Utter Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Assam entered critical reproductive stages (panicle initiation, ear growth and grain filling) under relatively less than favorable soil moisture conditions due to water deficits. At the end of September, rainfall in major rice growing regions in India was generally below normal. The regions affected most included North West (Punjab, Haryana, and Utter Pradesh),
5
October 2014
South Peninsula, and the North East. However, the surface and subsurface soil moisture conditions remained favorable with the exception of South Peninsula. The major concern shaping the current USDA forecast is that the rice crop in the northern states of Utter Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Assam entered critical reproductive stages (tillering, panicle initiation, ear growth, and grain filling) under less-than-favorable soil moisture conditions. At the moment most yield models still indicate a high chance of an average yield. There is however some variation within the major rice growing states, with most states or regions showing good chance of an average yield, while forecast yield expectations in some states are mixed.
Approximately 85 percent of India’s rice is grown during kharif season (southwest monsoon season, May-September) mainly in Punjab, Haryana, and Utter Pradesh. It is estimated that 50 percent of kharif rice is irrigated using canals and tube wells. The rest of the rice crop is grown under irrigation during the rabi season (winter season, November-March). The rabi crop is predominantly grown in West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. Planting of rabi rice is about to start. Favorable soil moisture conditions, replenished irrigation reservoirs and relatively firm domestic prices will be very beneficial to a good start. Assuming normal weather conditions, higher rabi rice production may partially offset the lower than expected kharif productivity. (For more information please contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339.)
6
October 2014
World Agricultural Production U.S. Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division (IPAD)
Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC 20250-1051
http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/ Telephone: (202) 720-1156 Fax: (202) 720-1158
This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-534), October 10, 2014. Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at 1-800-363-2068. The FAS International Production Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, November 10, 2014.
Conversion Table
Metric tons to bushels
Wheat, soybeans = MT * 36.7437 Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * 39.36825 Barley = MT * 45.929625 Oats = MT * 68.894438
Metric tons to 480-lb bales
Cotton = MT * 4.592917
Metric tons to hundredweight
Rice = MT * 22.04622
Area & weight
1 hectare = 2.471044 acres 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds
7
October 2014
For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service
Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division
Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC 20250-1051
Telephone: (202) 720-1156 Fax: (202) 720-1158
GENERAL INFORMATION Acting Director Paul Provance 202-720-2974 [email protected] USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 [email protected] Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] Program Analyst Mary Jackson 202-720-0886 [email protected] Management Analyst Rishan Chaudhry 202-720-1157 [email protected] Administrative Assistant/COTR Terri Lagarde 202-720-1156 [email protected] COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South América, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD 202-720-0107 [email protected] Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 [email protected] and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 [email protected] and other FSU-12 countries
Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent 202-720-0881 [email protected] and Bangladesh
East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133 [email protected] India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 [email protected] Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 [email protected] Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean 202-720-7366 [email protected] Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Papua New Guinea, and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD 202-260-8109 [email protected] Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] Eastern United States Paul Provance 202-720-2974 [email protected] Crop Analyst Vacant
October 2014
The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.
FAS Reports and Databases:
Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx
Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7
Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx
Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
Export Sales Report: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/
Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx
Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops
National Agricultural Statistics Service: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/
October 2014
Million Metric Tons
Table 01 World Crop Production Summary
World
-
Total
Foreign
North
America
North
America
North
America
Europea
n Union -
Former
Soviet
Former
Soviet
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
South
America
South
America
Selected
Other
Selected
Other
Selected
Other
All
Others
none
-
none
-
United
States
Mexico
-
Canada
-
none
-
Russia
-
Ukraine
-
China
-
India
-
Indo-
nesia
Paki-
stan
Thai-
land
Argen-
tina
Brazil
-
South
Africa
Turkey
-
none
-
Aus-
tralia
Commodity
---Million metric tons---
Wheat
2012/13 85.815.51.922.94.49.3nr23.3nr94.9121.015.837.7133.93.227.261.7596.6658.3
2013/14 prel. 96.618.01.827.05.310.5nr24.0nr93.5121.922.352.1143.13.437.558.1657.0715.1
2014/15 proj.
Sep 91.715.01.825.56.312.3nr24.5nr95.9126.024.059.0151.03.828.055.2664.7719.9
Oct 89.915.01.825.06.312.0nr25.0nr95.9126.024.559.0154.03.827.555.4665.7721.1
Coarse Grains
2012/13 166.210.612.911.484.337.24.75.68.539.9212.229.528.7145.928.924.4286.0850.91,136.9
2013/14 prel. 170.713.115.312.482.434.55.05.69.142.7225.139.935.7158.430.228.7369.4908.91,278.3
2014/15 proj.
Sep 174.69.314.111.678.131.15.05.69.238.5223.836.340.0158.030.121.8382.1887.11,269.2
Oct 172.99.314.111.278.131.15.05.69.237.3223.735.840.5163.730.121.8383.1889.31,272.4
Rice, Milled
2012/13 141.50.5nr0.88.01.020.25.836.6105.2143.00.10.72.10.1nr6.3465.6472.0
2013/14 prel. 145.00.5nr0.68.31.020.56.736.0106.5142.50.10.61.90.1nr6.1470.4476.6
2014/15 proj.
Sep 145.50.5nr0.68.41.020.56.737.0103.0144.00.10.72.00.1nr7.0470.0477.0
Oct 145.10.5nr0.68.41.020.56.537.0102.0144.00.10.72.00.1nr7.1468.4475.5
Total Grains
2012/13 393.526.614.735.196.747.624.934.745.1240.1476.245.467.1281.832.251.6354.01,913.22,267.2
2013/14 prel. 412.331.617.140.096.046.025.436.345.1242.8489.562.388.4303.533.766.2433.72,036.42,470.0
2014/15 proj.
Sep 411.824.815.937.892.844.425.536.846.2237.4493.860.499.7310.934.149.8444.32,021.82,466.1
Oct 407.824.815.936.992.844.125.537.146.2235.2493.760.4100.2319.734.149.3445.52,023.52,469.0
Oilseeds
2012/13 48.82.21.45.784.853.70.65.110.836.859.812.710.928.20.919.093.1381.4474.5
2013/14 prel. 48.42.41.95.290.357.50.65.111.538.358.916.713.631.70.923.299.0406.2505.2
2014/15 proj.
Sep 48.82.41.94.497.359.30.65.012.137.557.315.714.033.81.020.7116.2411.8528.0
Oct 48.92.51.94.497.259.10.65.212.138.057.515.713.534.21.020.4116.3412.1528.4
Cotton
2012/13 16.22.70.04.66.00.80.09.30.028.535.0nrnr1.51.0nr17.3105.6122.9
2013/14 prel. 15.22.30.04.18.01.20.09.50.031.032.8nrnr1.60.9nr12.9106.7119.6
2014/15 proj.
Sep 15.43.20.12.57.31.10.09.50.030.029.5nrnr1.71.2nr16.5101.5118.0
Oct 15.23.20.12.37.01.10.09.80.031.030.5nrnr1.81.2nr16.3103.1119.4
1/ Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.
October 2014
Table 02 Wheat Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
216.35World 0.845.980.161.17721.12220.80 222.00 221.77 3.04 3.24 3.24 3.25 658.32 715.13 719.95
19.80United States -4.67-2.710.280.1655.3918.35 18.71 18.81 3.12 3.17 2.95 2.95 61.67 58.11 55.24
196.55Total Foreign 1.328.690.151.01665.72202.46 203.29 202.96 3.04 3.25 3.27 3.28 596.64 657.03 664.71
none
24.27China 3.344.070.000.00126.0024.12 24.10 24.10 4.99 5.06 5.23 5.23 121.02 121.93 126.00
South Asia
29.86 India 2.572.400.060.0695.9130.00 30.60 30.60 3.18 3.12 3.13 3.13 94.88 93.51 95.85
8.66 Pakistan 4.171.002.040.5025.008.64 8.83 8.83 2.69 2.78 2.77 2.83 23.30 24.00 24.50
2.51 Afghanistan 0.500.030.000.005.032.55 2.56 2.56 2.01 1.96 1.96 1.96 5.05 5.00 5.03
Former Soviet Union - 12
21.30 Russia 13.266.910.000.0059.0023.40 23.75 23.75 1.77 2.23 2.48 2.48 37.72 52.09 59.00
5.63 Ukraine 9.972.222.080.5024.506.57 6.00 6.30 2.80 3.39 4.00 3.89 15.76 22.28 24.00
12.40 Kazakhstan -10.34-1.44-7.41-1.0012.5012.95 12.70 12.20 0.79 1.08 1.06 1.02 9.84 13.94 13.50
1.40 Uzbekistan 5.150.350.000.007.151.40 1.40 1.40 4.79 4.86 5.11 5.11 6.70 6.80 7.15
25.95European Union - 28 7.5710.841.993.01153.9825.77 26.57 26.58 5.16 5.55 5.68 5.79 133.85 143.13 150.97
5.30 France 1.540.590.000.0039.105.32 5.31 5.31 7.15 7.24 7.37 7.37 37.89 38.51 39.10
3.06 Germany 10.332.575.161.3527.503.13 3.22 3.22 7.33 7.98 8.12 8.54 22.41 24.93 26.15
1.99 United Kingdom 39.254.682.150.3516.601.63 1.98 1.98 6.66 7.33 8.23 8.41 13.26 11.92 16.25
2.08 Poland 11.581.103.410.3510.602.14 2.20 2.20 4.14 4.45 4.66 4.82 8.61 9.50 10.25
2.17 Spain -18.40-1.400.000.006.202.12 2.15 2.15 2.35 3.58 2.89 2.89 5.09 7.60 6.20
1.87 Italy -1.66-0.120.000.007.101.86 1.84 1.84 4.09 3.88 3.86 3.86 7.63 7.22 7.10
0.62 Denmark 21.950.910.000.005.050.57 0.70 0.70 7.42 7.29 7.27 7.27 4.56 4.14 5.05
1.06 Hungary 3.870.206.840.345.241.09 1.10 1.11 3.74 4.62 4.45 4.71 3.97 5.04 4.90
1.99 Romania 4.000.300.000.007.802.10 2.08 2.08 2.66 3.57 3.76 3.76 5.30 7.50 7.80
1.19 Bulgaria 0.000.000.000.004.901.19 1.17 1.17 3.76 4.12 4.18 4.18 4.46 4.90 4.90
9.50Canada -26.67-10.00-1.79-0.5027.5010.44 9.40 9.30 2.86 3.59 2.98 2.96 27.21 37.50 28.00
12.98Australia -7.45-2.01-1.96-0.5025.0013.51 13.80 13.80 1.76 2.00 1.85 1.81 22.86 27.01 25.50
Middle East
7.80 Turkey -16.67-3.000.000.0015.007.70 7.71 7.71 1.99 2.34 1.95 1.95 15.50 18.00 15.00
7.00 Iran -10.34-1.500.000.0013.007.00 6.80 6.80 1.97 2.07 1.91 1.91 13.80 14.50 13.00
1.60 Syria -37.50-1.500.000.002.501.55 1.30 1.30 2.31 2.58 1.92 1.92 3.70 4.00 2.50
North Africa
1.35 Egypt 3.470.300.000.008.951.35 1.40 1.40 6.30 6.41 6.39 6.39 8.50 8.65 8.95
3.14 Morocco -27.14-1.900.000.005.103.28 3.06 3.06 1.23 2.13 1.67 1.67 3.87 7.00 5.10
3.60Argentina 14.291.50-2.44-0.3012.003.50 4.15 4.10 2.58 3.00 2.96 2.93 9.30 10.50 12.30
17.61Others 0.910.43-1.56-0.7647.6118.73 19.16 19.17 2.49 2.52 2.52 2.48 43.79 47.18 48.37
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 03 Total Coarse Grain Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
315.80World -0.47-5.950.253.191,272.39322.40 316.57 317.23 3.60 3.97 4.01 4.01 1,136.93 1,278.34 1,269.19
39.20United States 3.6913.620.250.95383.0639.87 38.18 37.65 7.30 9.27 10.01 10.18 286.01 369.45 382.12
276.60Total Foreign -2.15-19.570.252.25889.32282.53 278.39 279.58 3.08 3.22 3.19 3.18 850.93 908.89 887.08
none
37.08China -0.63-1.42-0.04-0.10223.6538.38 38.87 38.87 5.72 5.86 5.76 5.75 212.19 225.07 223.75
South America
16.88 Brazil -5.22-4.300.000.0078.1116.83 16.18 16.18 4.99 4.90 4.83 4.83 84.25 82.41 78.11
6.84 Argentina -9.72-3.350.000.0031.125.93 5.38 5.38 5.45 5.81 5.79 5.79 37.25 34.47 31.12
31.34European Union - 28 3.355.313.655.77163.7431.34 30.96 31.03 4.66 5.05 5.10 5.28 145.89 158.43 157.97
3.99 France 13.673.863.621.1232.124.04 4.09 4.19 7.50 7.00 7.59 7.66 29.94 28.26 31.00
3.46 Germany 6.011.354.200.9623.803.40 3.29 3.29 6.64 6.60 6.94 7.23 22.99 22.45 22.84
5.53 Poland 3.420.644.200.7819.345.22 5.27 5.27 3.58 3.58 3.52 3.67 19.80 18.70 18.56
3.79 Spain -23.89-3.992.420.3012.713.95 3.92 3.92 3.01 4.23 3.17 3.25 11.41 16.69 12.41
1.40 Italy 14.751.235.540.509.531.24 1.22 1.22 6.47 6.70 7.38 7.79 9.08 8.31 9.03
1.67 Hungary 22.941.965.310.5310.481.72 1.77 1.76 3.78 4.95 5.61 5.95 6.30 8.53 9.96
1.15 United Kingdom -10.29-0.845.010.357.331.42 1.21 1.21 5.44 5.77 5.79 6.08 6.25 8.17 6.98
3.40 Romania -1.06-0.143.210.4012.863.37 3.30 3.28 2.23 3.85 3.78 3.92 7.59 13.00 12.46
Former Soviet Union - 12
14.18 Russia 13.334.771.250.5040.5015.49 16.10 16.20 2.02 2.31 2.48 2.50 28.66 35.74 40.00
8.55 Ukraine -10.34-4.13-1.42-0.5235.798.78 8.22 8.40 3.45 4.55 4.42 4.26 29.53 39.92 36.31
1.95 Kazakhstan -2.02-0.070.000.003.442.26 2.39 2.39 1.17 1.55 1.44 1.44 2.28 3.51 3.44
78.22Africa 0.690.78-0.93-1.06112.7980.73 80.88 81.90 1.43 1.39 1.41 1.38 112.22 112.01 113.85
12.73 Nigeria -3.13-0.60-3.13-0.6018.6013.25 13.25 13.25 1.46 1.45 1.45 1.40 18.57 19.20 19.20
3.44 South Africa -8.12-1.250.270.0414.103.31 3.41 3.42 3.75 4.64 4.12 4.13 12.87 15.34 14.06
5.18 Ethiopia -5.10-0.700.000.0013.055.40 5.41 5.41 2.37 2.55 2.41 2.41 12.29 13.75 13.05
0.98 Egypt -0.75-0.050.000.006.620.94 0.94 0.94 6.83 7.09 7.07 7.07 6.67 6.67 6.62
25.08India -12.64-5.40-3.17-1.2237.3125.38 23.71 23.71 1.59 1.68 1.63 1.57 39.94 42.71 38.53
Southeast Asia
3.00 Indonesia 1.100.100.000.009.203.12 3.12 3.12 2.83 2.92 2.95 2.95 8.50 9.10 9.20
2.56 Philippines 4.890.370.000.007.902.58 2.63 2.63 2.84 2.91 3.01 3.01 7.26 7.53 7.90
1.11 Thailand 0.000.000.000.004.961.15 1.13 1.13 4.20 4.31 4.38 4.38 4.66 4.96 4.96
8.92Mexico -0.23-0.070.000.0030.149.15 9.00 9.00 3.24 3.30 3.35 3.35 28.88 30.21 30.14
5.35Canada -24.31-6.99-0.30-0.0721.755.39 4.46 4.37 4.57 5.33 4.89 4.98 24.43 28.74 21.82
5.20Australia -9.40-1.16-3.45-0.4011.215.29 5.33 5.33 2.20 2.34 2.18 2.10 11.41 12.37 11.61
4.16Turkey -29.06-3.800.000.009.284.24 4.28 4.28 2.55 3.08 2.17 2.17 10.60 13.08 9.28
26.21Others -0.29-0.20-0.96-0.6768.4526.51 25.77 25.69 2.40 2.59 2.68 2.66 62.99 68.65 69.12
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 04 Corn Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
177.58World 0.222.130.323.18990.69179.85 176.38 177.14 4.89 5.50 5.60 5.59 868.61 988.57 987.52
35.36United States 3.9513.970.552.02367.6835.48 33.93 33.63 7.74 9.97 10.78 10.93 273.83 353.72 365.66
142.22Total Foreign -1.86-11.840.191.16623.01144.37 142.45 143.51 4.18 4.40 4.37 4.34 594.77 634.85 621.86
none
35.03China -0.68-1.490.000.00217.0036.32 36.80 36.80 5.87 6.02 5.90 5.90 205.61 218.49 217.00
22.71South America -4.78-5.50-0.06-0.07109.5721.92 21.29 21.27 5.27 5.25 5.15 5.15 119.77 115.07 109.63
15.80 Brazil -5.42-4.300.000.0075.0015.70 15.00 15.00 5.16 5.05 5.00 5.00 81.50 79.30 75.00
4.00 Argentina -8.00-2.000.000.0023.003.40 3.25 3.25 6.75 7.35 7.08 7.08 27.00 25.00 23.00
0.31 Bolivia 0.000.000.000.000.730.32 0.32 0.32 2.26 2.30 2.30 2.30 0.70 0.73 0.73
6.90Mexico 0.450.100.000.0022.506.90 6.90 6.90 3.13 3.25 3.26 3.26 21.59 22.40 22.50
9.72European Union - 28 10.636.833.912.6771.029.74 9.51 9.56 6.06 6.59 7.19 7.43 58.87 64.19 68.35
1.64 France 15.652.303.660.6017.001.75 1.70 1.75 9.22 8.38 9.65 9.71 15.15 14.70 16.40
0.97 Italy 15.311.096.490.508.200.90 0.86 0.86 7.82 7.90 8.95 9.53 7.59 7.11 7.70
1.19 Hungary 26.391.786.250.508.501.25 1.26 1.26 3.98 5.36 6.35 6.75 4.74 6.73 8.00
2.73 Romania -1.85-0.204.950.5010.602.60 2.50 2.50 2.23 4.15 4.04 4.24 6.10 10.80 10.10
0.54 Poland -3.13-0.130.000.003.880.61 0.58 0.58 7.35 6.51 6.74 6.74 4.00 4.00 3.88
8.91India -13.19-3.190.000.0021.009.50 8.60 8.60 2.50 2.55 2.44 2.44 22.26 24.19 21.00
1.42Canada -19.01-2.70-0.86-0.1011.501.48 1.25 1.25 9.21 9.59 9.28 9.20 13.06 14.20 11.60
3.00Indonesia 1.100.100.000.009.203.12 3.12 3.12 2.83 2.92 2.95 2.95 8.50 9.10 9.20
4.37Ukraine -19.09-5.90-3.85-1.0025.004.83 4.60 4.60 4.79 6.40 5.65 5.43 20.92 30.90 26.00
1.30Serbia 7.030.450.000.006.851.25 1.28 1.28 2.88 5.12 5.37 5.37 3.75 6.40 6.85
0.75Egypt -0.86-0.050.000.005.750.71 0.71 0.71 7.73 8.12 8.10 8.10 5.80 5.80 5.75
2.56Philippines 4.890.370.000.007.902.58 2.63 2.63 2.84 2.91 3.01 3.01 7.26 7.53 7.90
1.16Vietnam 3.930.200.000.005.401.17 1.20 1.20 4.15 4.43 4.50 4.50 4.80 5.20 5.40
1.08Thailand 0.000.000.000.004.901.12 1.10 1.10 4.26 4.38 4.45 4.45 4.60 4.90 4.90
1.94Russia 3.140.37-4.00-0.5012.002.32 2.50 2.60 4.24 5.01 5.00 4.62 8.21 11.64 12.50
Sub-Saharan Africa
3.24 South Africa -8.47-1.250.000.0013.503.10 3.20 3.20 3.82 4.76 4.22 4.22 12.37 14.75 13.50
4.16 Nigeria -2.60-0.20-2.60-0.207.504.25 4.25 4.25 1.83 1.81 1.81 1.76 7.63 7.70 7.70
2.01 Ethiopia -2.61-0.170.000.006.502.07 2.15 2.15 3.06 3.23 3.02 3.02 6.16 6.67 6.50
0.96 Zimbabwe 62.500.500.000.001.300.95 1.30 1.30 1.01 0.84 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.80 1.30
0.53Turkey -9.80-0.500.000.004.600.58 0.55 0.55 8.38 8.79 8.36 8.36 4.40 5.10 4.60
30.49Others 0.340.200.590.3560.0330.46 29.53 30.45 1.91 1.96 2.02 1.97 58.25 59.83 59.68
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 05 Barley Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
50.16World -4.21-6.122.152.93139.1250.56 49.05 49.08 2.59 2.87 2.78 2.83 129.84 145.24 136.19
1.31United States -16.76-0.79-6.39-0.273.931.23 1.07 1.00 3.65 3.84 3.94 3.95 4.80 4.72 4.20
48.85Total Foreign -3.79-5.332.423.20135.1949.33 47.98 48.09 2.56 2.85 2.75 2.81 125.04 140.52 132.00
none
7.63Russia 26.714.115.411.0019.508.02 8.20 8.20 1.83 1.92 2.26 2.38 13.95 15.39 18.50
12.51European Union - 28 -0.63-0.384.002.2859.2612.36 12.48 12.48 4.39 4.83 4.57 4.75 54.90 59.64 56.98
1.68 Germany 10.931.138.700.9211.501.57 1.60 1.60 6.19 6.59 6.61 7.19 10.39 10.37 10.58
1.68 France 13.911.443.520.4011.751.64 1.73 1.77 6.74 6.31 6.56 6.65 11.34 10.32 11.35
2.68 Spain -30.42-3.064.480.307.002.77 2.76 2.76 2.23 3.63 2.43 2.54 5.98 10.06 6.70
1.00 United Kingdom -8.35-0.595.690.356.501.21 1.05 1.05 5.51 5.84 5.86 6.19 5.52 7.09 6.15
0.72 Denmark -14.62-0.580.000.003.400.69 0.60 0.60 5.56 5.78 5.67 5.67 4.01 3.98 3.40
1.16 Poland 24.140.704.350.153.600.82 1.00 1.00 3.60 3.54 3.45 3.60 4.18 2.90 3.45
0.38 Czech Republic 22.520.369.110.161.950.35 0.35 0.35 4.23 4.57 5.11 5.58 1.62 1.59 1.79
0.45 Finland -6.93-0.130.000.001.800.50 0.50 0.50 3.50 3.90 3.60 3.60 1.59 1.93 1.80
0.37 Sweden -17.23-0.333.230.051.600.39 0.33 0.33 4.61 5.01 4.70 4.85 1.70 1.93 1.55
0.25 Italy 24.270.170.000.000.850.19 0.22 0.22 3.82 3.62 3.86 3.86 0.94 0.68 0.85
0.28 Hungary 18.430.202.320.031.280.27 0.30 0.29 3.61 4.06 4.17 4.44 1.00 1.08 1.25
0.15 Austria 8.990.070.000.000.800.14 0.15 0.15 4.38 5.13 5.33 5.33 0.66 0.73 0.80
3.29Ukraine 24.321.844.440.409.403.23 3.00 3.20 2.11 2.34 3.00 2.94 6.94 7.56 9.00
2.75Canada -29.76-3.050.000.007.202.65 2.20 2.10 2.91 3.87 3.27 3.43 8.01 10.25 7.20
3.64Australia -20.38-1.95-5.00-0.407.603.92 3.80 3.80 2.05 2.43 2.11 2.00 7.47 9.55 8.00
3.30Turkey -45.21-3.300.000.004.003.33 3.40 3.40 1.67 2.19 1.18 1.18 5.50 7.30 4.00
0.49China 3.330.050.000.001.550.45 0.45 0.45 3.32 3.33 3.44 3.44 1.63 1.50 1.55
1.68Iran 0.000.000.000.003.201.58 1.58 1.58 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 3.40 3.20 3.20
1.89Morocco -37.04-1.000.000.001.701.69 1.44 1.44 0.63 1.60 1.18 1.18 1.20 2.70 1.70
1.60Kazakhstan 2.400.060.000.002.601.84 2.00 2.00 0.94 1.38 1.30 1.30 1.50 2.54 2.60
1.02Ethiopia -6.88-0.130.000.001.801.05 1.02 1.02 1.75 1.84 1.76 1.76 1.78 1.93 1.80
0.56Belarus 25.450.430.000.002.100.57 0.60 0.60 3.44 2.94 3.50 3.50 1.92 1.67 2.10
0.77India 3.430.064.620.081.810.78 0.81 0.81 2.10 2.24 2.14 2.23 1.62 1.75 1.73
1.50Argentina -28.42-1.350.000.003.401.27 0.90 0.90 3.33 3.74 3.78 3.78 5.00 4.75 3.40
0.33Mexico 0.000.000.000.000.550.22 0.22 0.22 3.15 2.56 2.56 2.56 1.03 0.55 0.55
0.60Iraq 5.930.060.000.001.001.07 1.15 1.15 0.83 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.50 0.94 1.00
1.00Algeria -33.24-0.50-9.09-0.101.000.90 0.80 0.80 1.50 1.66 1.38 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.10
4.29Others -3.59-0.28-0.82-0.067.524.41 3.95 3.95 1.68 1.77 1.92 1.91 7.20 7.80 7.58
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 06 Oats Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
9.46World -5.23-1.23-0.09-0.0222.359.68 9.48 9.43 2.23 2.44 2.36 2.37 21.14 23.58 22.37
0.42United States 9.060.09-8.82-0.101.020.41 0.47 0.42 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.44 0.93 0.94 1.12
9.04Total Foreign -5.82-1.320.370.0821.329.27 9.01 9.01 2.24 2.44 2.36 2.37 20.21 22.64 21.24
none
2.86Russia 1.380.070.000.005.003.01 3.00 3.00 1.41 1.64 1.67 1.67 4.03 4.93 5.00
0.99Canada -30.98-1.211.320.042.691.11 0.88 0.89 2.85 3.50 3.03 3.03 2.81 3.89 2.65
2.67European Union - 28 -3.41-0.290.170.018.092.62 2.62 2.62 2.96 3.19 3.09 3.09 7.91 8.38 8.08
0.51 Poland 1.250.020.000.001.220.43 0.45 0.45 2.86 2.76 2.70 2.70 1.47 1.20 1.22
0.31 Finland -2.36-0.030.000.001.200.35 0.36 0.36 3.40 3.50 3.38 3.38 1.07 1.23 1.20
0.44 Spain -13.79-0.130.000.000.830.43 0.44 0.44 1.54 2.22 1.86 1.86 0.68 0.96 0.83
0.15 Germany 6.230.040.000.000.670.13 0.14 0.14 5.22 4.74 4.93 4.93 0.76 0.63 0.67
0.20 Sweden 0.230.000.000.000.860.20 0.20 0.20 3.82 4.40 4.41 4.41 0.74 0.86 0.86
0.12 United Kingdom -25.83-0.250.000.000.720.18 0.13 0.13 5.14 5.48 5.50 5.50 0.63 0.96 0.72
0.08 France 5.790.031.560.010.460.09 0.10 0.10 4.83 4.60 4.64 4.57 0.40 0.43 0.45
0.12 Italy -13.22-0.030.000.000.200.09 0.08 0.08 2.43 2.52 2.40 2.40 0.29 0.23 0.20
0.05 Denmark 2.940.010.000.000.280.06 0.06 0.06 4.94 4.86 4.67 4.67 0.25 0.27 0.28
0.19 Romania 1.410.010.000.000.360.18 0.19 0.19 1.75 1.97 1.95 1.95 0.34 0.36 0.36
0.05 Czech Republic 13.670.024.640.010.160.04 0.04 0.04 3.37 3.16 3.60 3.76 0.17 0.14 0.15
0.05 Hungary 2.940.000.000.000.140.05 0.05 0.05 2.64 2.67 2.64 2.64 0.14 0.14 0.14
0.03 Austria 3.450.000.000.000.090.02 0.02 0.02 3.72 3.78 3.91 3.91 0.09 0.09 0.09
0.02 Ireland -5.26-0.010.000.000.180.03 0.03 0.03 6.54 7.31 7.20 7.20 0.16 0.19 0.18
0.07 Lithuania -0.610.000.000.000.160.07 0.07 0.07 2.31 2.23 2.25 2.25 0.16 0.16 0.16
0.73Australia -13.27-0.180.000.001.150.74 0.73 0.73 1.54 1.78 1.58 1.58 1.12 1.33 1.15
0.30Ukraine 24.200.115.450.030.580.24 0.25 0.24 2.09 1.94 2.20 2.47 0.63 0.47 0.55
0.20China 3.450.020.000.000.600.20 0.20 0.20 3.00 2.90 3.00 3.00 0.60 0.58 0.60
0.13Belarus 27.840.100.000.000.450.13 0.14 0.14 3.22 2.65 3.21 3.21 0.42 0.35 0.45
0.17Brazil 0.000.000.000.000.380.17 0.17 0.17 2.14 2.24 2.24 2.24 0.36 0.38 0.38
0.26Argentina 3.370.020.000.000.460.22 0.23 0.23 1.91 2.07 2.00 2.00 0.50 0.45 0.46
0.13Chile 14.750.090.000.000.700.14 0.13 0.13 5.35 4.49 5.60 5.60 0.68 0.61 0.70
0.07Norway 0.000.000.000.000.240.07 0.07 0.07 3.42 3.42 3.42 3.42 0.24 0.24 0.24
0.09Turkey 0.000.000.000.000.210.09 0.09 0.09 2.36 2.33 2.33 2.33 0.21 0.21 0.21
0.15Kazakhstan -18.03-0.060.000.000.250.22 0.20 0.20 1.33 1.39 1.25 1.25 0.20 0.31 0.25
0.03Serbia 0.000.000.000.000.070.03 0.03 0.03 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 0.07 0.07 0.07
0.28Others 0.000.000.000.000.460.28 0.28 0.28 1.61 1.63 1.63 1.63 0.44 0.46 0.46
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 07 Rye Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
5.03World -5.57-0.881.040.1514.945.44 5.38 5.36 2.74 2.91 2.75 2.79 13.78 15.82 14.78
0.10United States -5.67-0.01-14.08-0.030.180.11 0.12 0.10 1.76 1.72 1.72 1.76 0.18 0.19 0.21
4.93Total Foreign -5.57-0.871.260.1814.755.32 5.26 5.25 2.76 2.93 2.77 2.81 13.60 15.62 14.57
none
2.37European Union - 28 -9.41-0.961.750.169.232.56 2.38 2.38 3.69 3.98 3.81 3.88 8.76 10.19 9.07
1.04 Poland 1.520.054.040.133.351.16 1.15 1.15 2.77 2.85 2.81 2.92 2.89 3.30 3.22
0.71 Germany -18.84-0.881.060.043.800.79 0.63 0.63 5.47 5.96 5.97 6.03 3.88 4.68 3.76
0.16 Spain -21.67-0.080.000.000.300.16 0.16 0.16 1.60 2.47 1.89 1.89 0.26 0.38 0.30
0.06 Lithuania 25.000.020.000.000.120.05 0.05 0.05 2.80 1.96 2.40 2.40 0.16 0.10 0.12
0.04 Latvia 15.790.010.000.000.090.03 0.03 0.03 3.35 2.62 2.93 2.93 0.12 0.08 0.09
0.03 France -9.79-0.01-14.00-0.020.130.03 0.03 0.03 5.00 4.93 5.00 4.96 0.16 0.14 0.15
0.07 Denmark -0.750.000.000.000.530.09 0.09 0.09 5.91 6.14 6.24 6.24 0.38 0.53 0.53
0.03 Czech Republic -28.41-0.058.620.010.130.04 0.03 0.03 4.90 4.76 4.64 5.04 0.15 0.18 0.12
0.05 Austria 4.260.010.000.000.250.06 0.06 0.06 4.18 4.20 4.45 4.45 0.21 0.24 0.25
0.02 Sweden 0.670.000.000.000.150.02 0.02 0.02 6.36 7.45 7.50 7.50 0.14 0.15 0.15
0.04 Hungary -4.76-0.010.000.000.100.04 0.04 0.04 2.23 3.00 2.86 2.86 0.08 0.11 0.10
0.02 Slovakia -34.48-0.030.000.000.060.02 0.02 0.02 3.06 3.95 3.80 3.80 0.05 0.09 0.06
0.02 Finland 15.380.000.000.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 3.10 2.17 2.50 2.50 0.07 0.03 0.03
0.01 United Kingdom 0.000.000.000.000.040.01 0.01 0.01 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 0.04 0.04 0.04
0.01 Romania 9.090.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 2.00 2.75 3.00 3.00 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.02 Greece 0.000.000.000.000.030.02 0.02 0.02 1.83 1.83 1.83 1.83 0.03 0.03 0.03
0.02 Portugal 0.000.000.000.000.020.02 0.02 0.02 0.77 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.02 0.02 0.02
1.42Russia 4.170.140.000.003.501.78 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.89 1.75 1.75 2.13 3.36 3.50
0.39Belarus 23.460.150.000.000.800.32 0.33 0.33 2.76 2.01 2.42 2.42 1.08 0.65 0.80
0.30Ukraine -29.47-0.195.880.030.450.28 0.19 0.18 2.27 2.29 2.30 2.50 0.68 0.64 0.43
0.12Canada -9.52-0.020.000.000.190.09 0.08 0.08 2.74 2.47 2.53 2.53 0.34 0.21 0.19
0.14Turkey 0.000.000.000.000.350.14 0.14 0.14 2.59 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.37 0.35 0.35
0.02Argentina -23.08-0.010.000.000.040.04 0.03 0.03 1.74 1.49 1.60 1.60 0.04 0.05 0.04
0.05Kazakhstan 16.280.010.000.000.050.04 0.04 0.04 1.00 1.10 1.25 1.25 0.05 0.04 0.05
0.06Australia 0.000.000.000.000.020.04 0.04 0.04 0.70 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.04 0.02 0.02
0.00Switzerland 0.000.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.05Others 9.800.010.000.000.110.05 0.05 0.05 2.26 2.17 2.33 2.33 0.10 0.10 0.11
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 08 Sorghum Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
37.95World 3.311.98-2.53-1.6061.5840.53 40.06 40.00 1.52 1.47 1.58 1.54 57.76 59.61 63.18
2.01United States 3.720.37-6.19-0.6810.252.64 2.59 2.50 3.13 3.74 4.22 4.10 6.27 9.88 10.93
35.95Total Foreign 3.231.61-1.76-0.9251.3337.89 37.47 37.51 1.43 1.31 1.39 1.37 51.49 49.73 52.26
none
Sub-Saharan Africa
4.77 Nigeria -3.08-0.20-3.08-0.206.305.00 5.00 5.00 1.25 1.30 1.30 1.26 5.94 6.50 6.50
4.10 Sudan 55.621.25-7.89-0.303.505.60 5.60 5.60 1.10 0.40 0.68 0.63 4.52 2.25 3.80
1.71 Ethiopia -7.79-0.340.000.004.001.85 1.80 1.80 2.11 2.35 2.22 2.22 3.60 4.34 4.00
1.79 Burkina -2.06-0.040.000.001.901.80 1.80 1.80 1.08 1.08 1.06 1.06 1.92 1.94 1.90
0.84 Tanzania 0.960.015.000.040.840.90 0.85 0.90 1.00 0.92 0.94 0.93 0.84 0.83 0.80
3.11 Niger -6.76-0.090.000.001.203.00 3.00 3.00 0.44 0.43 0.40 0.40 1.38 1.29 1.20
0.37 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.320.35 0.35 0.35 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.34 0.32 0.32
0.62 Mozambique 19.680.04-25.00-0.080.230.63 0.62 0.62 0.39 0.30 0.48 0.36 0.24 0.19 0.30
0.23 Ghana 8.300.020.000.000.300.23 0.25 0.25 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.20 0.28 0.28 0.30
0.06 South Africa -16.04-0.040.000.000.230.08 0.08 0.08 2.33 3.39 2.81 2.81 0.15 0.27 0.23
South Asia
6.30 India -4.76-0.25-5.66-0.305.005.90 5.50 5.50 0.84 0.89 0.96 0.91 5.30 5.25 5.30
0.24 Pakistan 0.000.000.000.000.150.24 0.24 0.24 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.15 0.15 0.15
South America
1.05 Argentina 0.000.000.000.004.201.00 0.96 0.96 4.48 4.20 4.38 4.38 4.70 4.20 4.20
0.80 Brazil 0.000.000.000.002.400.85 0.90 0.90 2.62 2.82 2.67 2.67 2.10 2.40 2.40
1.64Mexico -2.37-0.170.000.007.001.98 1.83 1.83 3.76 3.62 3.83 3.83 6.17 7.17 7.00
0.62China 0.000.00-3.57-0.102.700.65 0.67 0.67 4.10 4.15 4.18 4.03 2.56 2.70 2.80
0.65Australia 80.670.890.000.002.000.49 0.66 0.66 3.44 2.25 3.03 3.03 2.23 1.11 2.00
0.14Egypt 0.000.000.000.000.760.14 0.14 0.14 5.29 5.29 5.29 5.29 0.76 0.76 0.76
0.11European Union - 28 15.930.1023.780.140.710.12 0.11 0.13 4.34 5.13 5.05 5.36 0.50 0.62 0.58
0.04 France 38.710.1154.800.140.390.05 0.05 0.06 5.71 5.47 5.56 6.05 0.24 0.28 0.25
0.04 Italy 0.000.000.000.000.230.04 0.04 0.04 4.27 6.22 6.22 6.22 0.16 0.23 0.23
6.77Others 5.920.43-1.60-0.127.617.08 7.10 7.07 1.15 1.01 1.09 1.08 7.82 7.18 7.73
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
World and Selected Countries and Regions
Table 09 Rice Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
158.17World -0.23-1.08-0.32-1.51475.48160.76 161.02 161.05 4.45 4.42 4.42 4.40 471.97 476.56 476.98
1.08United States 15.400.941.100.087.061.00 1.18 1.18 8.35 8.62 8.40 8.50 6.34 6.12 6.98
157.09Total Foreign -0.43-2.02-0.34-1.58468.42159.76 159.84 159.87 4.42 4.39 4.39 4.37 465.64 470.44 470.00
none
East Asia
30.14 China 1.031.470.000.00144.0030.31 30.60 30.60 6.78 6.72 6.72 6.72 143.00 142.53 144.00
1.58 Japan -1.69-0.130.000.007.701.60 1.59 1.59 6.74 6.73 6.65 6.65 7.76 7.83 7.70
0.85 Korea, South -4.26-0.180.000.004.050.83 0.83 0.83 6.37 6.76 6.54 6.54 4.01 4.23 4.05
0.58 Korea, North -9.57-0.180.000.001.700.57 0.57 0.57 4.62 5.07 4.63 4.63 1.74 1.88 1.70
South Asia
42.41 India -4.26-4.54-0.97-1.00102.0043.94 43.40 43.50 3.72 3.64 3.56 3.52 105.24 106.54 103.00
11.65 Bangladesh 0.610.210.000.0034.6011.77 11.80 11.80 4.35 4.38 4.40 4.40 33.82 34.39 34.60
2.40 Pakistan -2.99-0.20-2.99-0.206.502.76 2.76 2.76 3.63 3.64 3.64 3.53 5.80 6.70 6.70
Southeast Asia
12.19 Indonesia 2.781.000.000.0037.0012.00 12.16 12.16 4.72 4.72 4.79 4.79 36.55 36.00 37.00
7.86 Vietnam 0.710.200.000.0028.207.78 7.78 7.78 5.60 5.76 5.80 5.80 27.54 28.00 28.20
10.84 Thailand 0.200.040.000.0020.5010.92 10.90 10.90 2.82 2.84 2.85 2.85 20.20 20.46 20.50
7.04 Burma 1.610.190.000.0012.157.05 7.07 7.07 2.60 2.65 2.69 2.69 11.72 11.96 12.15
4.70 Philippines 2.880.340.000.0012.204.80 4.89 4.89 3.86 3.92 3.96 3.96 11.43 11.86 12.20
2.98 Cambodia 3.700.180.000.004.902.97 3.05 3.05 2.45 2.49 2.51 2.51 4.67 4.73 4.90
0.93 Laos 5.800.090.000.001.550.87 0.90 0.90 2.81 2.68 2.73 2.73 1.66 1.47 1.55
0.69 Malaysia 2.560.050.000.001.800.69 0.69 0.69 3.79 3.91 4.02 4.02 1.69 1.76 1.80
South America
2.39 Brazil 0.600.050.000.008.352.40 2.45 2.45 4.95 5.09 5.01 5.01 8.04 8.30 8.35
0.39 Peru -2.60-0.060.000.002.100.41 0.40 0.40 7.72 7.72 7.61 7.61 2.10 2.16 2.10
Sub-Saharan Africa
2.00 Nigeria -8.01-0.220.000.002.552.50 2.30 2.30 1.88 1.76 1.76 1.76 2.37 2.77 2.55
1.55 Madagascar 19.080.44-4.44-0.132.751.30 1.45 1.45 2.94 2.78 3.10 2.97 2.91 2.31 2.88
0.45European Union - 28 0.460.010.000.001.950.44 0.44 0.44 6.73 6.39 6.46 6.46 2.10 1.94 1.95
0.24 Italy 0.420.000.000.000.970.22 0.22 0.22 6.60 6.36 6.30 6.30 1.09 0.96 0.97
0.11 Spain 0.170.000.000.000.600.11 0.11 0.11 7.96 7.53 7.68 7.68 0.63 0.60 0.60
0.77Egypt 0.410.020.000.004.900.79 0.80 0.80 8.80 8.95 8.93 8.93 4.68 4.88 4.90
0.53Iran 2.000.030.000.001.680.59 0.60 0.60 4.43 4.24 4.25 4.25 1.54 1.65 1.68
12.17Others -3.16-0.83-0.99-0.2525.2812.47 12.43 12.36 3.11 3.16 3.10 3.09 25.10 26.11 25.54
Yield is on a rough basis, before the milling process
Production is on a milled basis, after the milling process
October 2014
World and Selected Countries and Regions
Table 10 Total Oilseed Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
--World Total 4.5823.160.070.39528.39-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 474.52 505.22 528.00
--Total Foreign 1.465.930.080.33412.13-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 381.38 406.20 411.80
--Oilseed, Copra -0.88-0.050.000.005.53-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 5.80 5.58 5.53
--Oilseed, Palm Kernel 5.090.800.000.0016.57-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 14.79 15.76 16.57
none
226.86Major OilSeeds 4.6322.410.080.39506.29229.46 234.81 234.63 2.00 2.11 2.15 2.16 453.93 483.88 505.90
36.71United States 17.4117.240.050.06116.2635.44 39.88 39.52 2.54 2.79 2.91 2.94 93.15 99.02 116.20
none
190.15Foreign Oilseeds 1.345.170.080.33390.03194.02 194.93 195.11 1.90 1.98 2.00 2.00 360.79 384.86 389.70
56.61South America 5.298.60-0.20-0.34171.0659.49 61.07 60.89 2.72 2.73 2.81 2.81 153.70 162.47 171.40
28.77 Brazil 7.676.91-0.12-0.1297.0731.46 32.78 32.73 2.94 2.87 2.96 2.97 84.67 90.16 97.19
21.76 Argentina 2.741.57-0.36-0.2259.0821.99 22.36 22.24 2.47 2.61 2.65 2.66 53.68 57.50 59.29
3.34 Paraguay 2.430.20-0.050.008.453.22 3.28 3.28 2.53 2.56 2.57 2.58 8.44 8.25 8.45
1.26 Bolivia -0.75-0.020.000.002.651.18 1.20 1.20 2.29 2.26 2.21 2.21 2.88 2.67 2.65
25.43China -2.49-1.470.330.1957.4524.84 24.23 24.28 2.35 2.37 2.36 2.37 59.79 58.92 57.26
39.64South Asia -0.23-0.101.660.7042.8541.38 40.38 40.68 1.05 1.04 1.04 1.05 41.51 42.95 42.15
35.35 India -0.59-0.221.360.5037.3537.18 36.23 36.48 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.02 36.10 37.57 36.85
3.96 Pakistan 2.350.123.970.205.243.87 3.82 3.87 1.30 1.32 1.32 1.35 5.15 5.12 5.04
11.40European Union - 28 8.002.531.290.4434.2212.04 11.91 11.94 2.47 2.63 2.84 2.87 28.15 31.69 33.78
2.32 France 19.471.180.000.007.242.25 2.25 2.25 3.07 2.69 3.22 3.22 7.14 6.06 7.24
1.33 Germany 5.600.330.000.006.151.49 1.46 1.46 3.67 3.92 4.22 4.22 4.88 5.82 6.15
0.84 Poland 1.570.043.640.102.850.96 0.86 0.86 2.65 2.91 3.19 3.30 2.22 2.80 2.75
1.30 Romania 5.580.171.600.053.181.47 1.48 1.51 1.34 2.06 2.11 2.11 1.75 3.01 3.13
0.81 Hungary 11.980.253.330.082.330.84 0.89 0.89 2.18 2.48 2.54 2.63 1.77 2.08 2.25
0.76 United Kingdom 20.830.440.000.002.570.72 0.72 0.72 3.38 2.97 3.57 3.57 2.56 2.13 2.57
19.87Former Soviet Union - 12 -3.05-1.07-1.46-0.5033.8021.07 21.74 21.74 1.41 1.65 1.58 1.55 27.95 34.86 34.30
8.45 Russia -0.61-0.08-3.57-0.5013.509.11 9.40 9.40 1.29 1.49 1.49 1.44 10.87 13.58 14.00
7.46 Ukraine -6.13-1.030.000.0015.707.95 8.20 8.20 1.70 2.10 1.91 1.91 12.71 16.73 15.70
1.35 Uzbekistan 0.000.000.000.001.611.29 1.29 1.29 1.31 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.77 1.61 1.61
10.52Canada -12.28-2.85-1.45-0.3020.369.86 9.98 10.03 1.81 2.36 2.07 2.03 19.04 23.21 20.66
16.75Africa 1.040.160.600.0915.2016.03 16.35 16.35 0.89 0.94 0.92 0.93 14.96 15.04 15.11
3.29 Nigeria -0.22-0.01-0.22-0.013.573.23 3.24 3.24 1.15 1.11 1.10 1.10 3.79 3.58 3.58
3.47Southeast Asia 0.480.020.000.005.003.46 3.46 3.46 1.35 1.44 1.45 1.45 4.70 4.98 5.00
1.14 Indonesia -0.56-0.010.000.001.781.12 1.09 1.09 1.54 1.61 1.63 1.63 1.76 1.79 1.78
3.80Australia -14.21-0.740.000.004.443.16 3.09 3.09 1.51 1.64 1.44 1.44 5.72 5.17 4.44
2.67Others 1.290.070.890.055.652.69 2.72 2.65 1.97 2.07 2.06 2.13 5.27 5.58 5.60
World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel)
Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)
October 2014
Table 11 Soybean Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
109.43World 9.1926.190.020.08311.20113.20 118.06 117.82 2.45 2.52 2.64 2.64 267.83 285.01 311.13
30.82United States 16.9415.480.350.37106.8730.86 34.02 33.75 2.68 2.96 3.13 3.17 82.56 91.39 106.50
78.61Total Foreign 5.5310.71-0.15-0.30204.3382.34 84.04 84.07 2.36 2.35 2.43 2.43 185.27 193.62 204.63
none
South America
27.70 Brazil 8.427.300.000.0094.0030.10 31.50 31.50 2.96 2.88 2.98 2.98 82.00 86.70 94.00
19.40 Argentina 1.851.000.000.0055.0019.80 20.00 20.00 2.54 2.73 2.75 2.75 49.30 54.00 55.00
3.16 Paraguay 1.230.100.000.008.203.10 3.10 3.10 2.60 2.61 2.65 2.65 8.20 8.10 8.20
1.09 Bolivia 4.170.100.000.002.501.00 1.10 1.10 2.42 2.40 2.27 2.27 2.63 2.40 2.50
1.30 Uruguay -2.86-0.100.000.003.401.45 1.25 1.25 2.81 2.41 2.72 2.72 3.65 3.50 3.40
East Asia
7.17 China -3.28-0.40-1.67-0.2011.806.85 6.70 6.70 1.82 1.78 1.79 1.76 13.05 12.20 12.00
0.08 Korea, South -17.53-0.030.000.000.130.08 0.07 0.07 1.52 1.93 1.72 1.72 0.12 0.15 0.13
0.12 Korea, North 1.230.000.000.000.170.12 0.12 0.12 1.46 1.41 1.40 1.40 0.17 0.16 0.17
0.13 Japan 3.540.010.000.000.210.13 0.13 0.13 1.80 1.56 1.64 1.64 0.24 0.20 0.21
10.80India 0.000.000.000.0011.0012.20 11.00 11.00 1.06 0.90 1.00 1.00 11.50 11.00 11.00
1.68Canada 13.510.700.000.005.901.82 2.20 2.20 3.03 2.86 2.68 2.68 5.09 5.20 5.90
Former Soviet Union - 12
1.35 Russia 52.810.86-7.41-0.202.501.20 1.80 1.80 1.39 1.36 1.50 1.39 1.88 1.64 2.70
1.41 Ukraine 26.170.730.000.003.501.35 1.75 1.75 1.71 2.05 2.00 2.00 2.41 2.77 3.50
Southeast Asia
0.45 Indonesia 0.000.000.000.000.620.45 0.45 0.45 1.33 1.38 1.38 1.38 0.60 0.62 0.62
0.12 Vietnam 7.950.010.000.000.190.12 0.13 0.13 1.42 1.47 1.46 1.46 0.17 0.18 0.19
0.05 Thailand 0.000.000.000.000.070.04 0.04 0.04 1.70 1.67 1.75 1.75 0.09 0.07 0.07
0.17 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.250.17 0.17 0.17 1.23 1.47 1.47 1.47 0.21 0.25 0.25
0.42European Union - 28 28.150.357.000.101.580.47 0.56 0.59 2.25 2.62 2.64 2.68 0.95 1.23 1.47
0.15 Italy 39.190.2413.550.100.860.18 0.22 0.25 2.76 3.54 3.50 3.51 0.42 0.62 0.76
0.04 France 27.270.030.000.000.140.04 0.07 0.07 2.81 2.62 2.00 2.00 0.10 0.11 0.14
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.52 South Africa -2.54-0.020.000.000.920.50 0.56 0.56 1.52 1.88 1.64 1.64 0.79 0.94 0.92
0.57 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.450.44 0.44 0.44 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 0.58 0.45 0.45
0.15 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.170.15 0.15 0.15 1.00 1.11 1.11 1.11 0.15 0.17 0.17
0.17Serbia 5.000.020.000.000.420.17 0.17 0.17 1.70 2.42 2.55 2.55 0.28 0.40 0.42
0.14Mexico 14.170.040.000.000.290.16 0.17 0.17 1.75 1.60 1.76 1.76 0.25 0.25 0.29
0.07Iran 4.840.010.000.000.200.08 0.08 0.08 2.35 2.45 2.44 2.44 0.17 0.19 0.20
0.39Others 3.860.030.000.000.890.40 0.42 0.42 2.06 2.13 2.13 2.13 0.81 0.86 0.89
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 12 Cottonseed Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
33.43World 0.650.292.190.9745.3931.75 33.19 33.46 1.39 1.42 1.34 1.36 46.31 45.10 44.42
3.79United States 27.751.06-1.73-0.094.873.05 4.00 4.00 1.36 1.25 1.24 1.22 5.14 3.81 4.96
29.64Total Foreign -1.86-0.772.681.0640.5228.70 29.19 29.46 1.39 1.44 1.35 1.38 41.17 41.29 39.46
none
5.30China -6.90-0.893.370.3911.954.80 4.35 4.40 2.59 2.67 2.66 2.72 13.72 12.84 11.56
South Asia
12.00 India 1.930.253.940.5013.2011.70 12.50 12.75 1.01 1.11 1.02 1.04 12.10 12.95 12.70
3.00 Pakistan 4.880.204.880.204.303.00 3.00 3.05 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.41 4.00 4.10 4.10
Former Soviet Union - 12
1.35 Uzbekistan 0.000.000.000.001.611.29 1.29 1.29 1.31 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.77 1.61 1.61
0.60 Turkmenistan 0.000.000.000.000.590.58 0.58 0.58 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.63 0.59 0.59
0.20 Tajikistan -5.71-0.010.000.000.170.19 0.18 0.18 1.08 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.22 0.18 0.17
0.15 Kazakhstan -4.51-0.010.000.000.130.14 0.13 0.13 1.10 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.16 0.13 0.13
South America
0.90 Brazil -11.03-0.32-4.44-0.122.581.12 1.05 1.00 2.48 2.59 2.57 2.58 2.23 2.90 2.70
0.36 Argentina -10.71-0.05-3.85-0.020.380.56 0.52 0.50 0.72 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.26 0.42 0.39
Middle East
0.41 Turkey 36.490.270.000.001.010.33 0.43 0.43 2.12 2.24 2.35 2.35 0.87 0.74 1.01
0.13 Syria -64.86-0.180.000.000.100.11 0.06 0.06 2.72 2.51 1.62 1.62 0.34 0.28 0.10
0.11 Iran 6.670.010.000.000.100.10 0.11 0.11 1.14 0.90 0.87 0.87 0.12 0.09 0.10
0.45Australia -35.77-0.470.000.000.840.44 0.30 0.30 3.20 2.98 2.78 2.78 1.42 1.30 0.84
0.36European Union - 28 19.000.092.890.020.570.31 0.34 0.34 1.36 1.54 1.62 1.67 0.48 0.48 0.55
0.29 Greece 17.250.073.530.020.470.25 0.27 0.27 1.33 1.63 1.71 1.77 0.38 0.40 0.45
0.07 Spain 28.210.020.000.000.100.06 0.08 0.08 1.47 1.22 1.33 1.33 0.10 0.08 0.10
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.58 Burkina 9.040.039.040.030.360.56 0.58 0.58 0.56 0.60 0.58 0.63 0.33 0.33 0.33
0.52 Mali 17.430.040.000.000.280.48 0.57 0.57 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.24 0.28
0.21 Cameroon 4.000.014.000.010.260.22 0.22 0.22 1.10 1.14 1.14 1.18 0.23 0.25 0.25
0.06 Sudan 0.000.000.000.000.050.06 0.06 0.06 1.07 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.06 0.05 0.05
0.24 Zimbabwe 23.680.030.000.000.140.23 0.30 0.30 0.41 0.50 0.47 0.47 0.10 0.11 0.14
0.30 Nigeria -6.15-0.01-6.15-0.010.120.29 0.30 0.30 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.14 0.13 0.13
0.25 Benin 21.210.049.890.020.200.27 0.28 0.28 0.73 0.61 0.65 0.71 0.18 0.17 0.18
0.08 Uganda 3.750.000.000.000.080.05 0.07 0.07 1.16 1.54 1.28 1.28 0.09 0.08 0.08
0.14Egypt 20.300.030.000.000.160.13 0.16 0.16 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.03 0.15 0.13 0.16
0.16Mexico 29.940.090.000.000.410.12 0.18 0.18 2.27 2.64 2.33 2.33 0.35 0.31 0.41
0.30Burma 0.000.000.000.000.190.30 0.30 0.30 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.19 0.19 0.19
1.51Others 9.460.074.950.040.761.34 1.36 1.36 0.53 0.52 0.53 0.56 0.79 0.70 0.73
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 13 Peanut Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
23.94World -1.55-0.620.020.0139.1923.71 23.20 23.20 1.68 1.68 1.69 1.69 40.12 39.81 39.19
0.65United States 19.390.370.310.012.260.42 0.53 0.53 4.73 4.49 4.26 4.27 3.07 1.89 2.25
23.29Total Foreign -2.59-0.980.000.0036.9323.29 22.67 22.67 1.59 1.63 1.63 1.63 37.06 37.92 36.93
none
4.64China -2.78-0.470.000.0016.504.71 4.70 4.70 3.60 3.60 3.51 3.51 16.69 16.97 16.50
South Asia
5.00 India -11.50-0.650.000.005.005.40 4.80 4.80 1.00 1.05 1.04 1.04 5.00 5.65 5.00
0.11 Pakistan 0.000.000.000.000.100.11 0.11 0.11 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.10 0.10 0.10
10.96Sub-Saharan Africa 0.040.000.000.009.9210.52 10.53 10.53 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.94 10.09 9.91 9.92
2.42 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.003.002.50 2.50 2.50 1.27 1.20 1.20 1.20 3.07 3.00 3.00
0.71 Senegal 2.110.020.000.000.730.77 0.77 0.77 0.98 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.69 0.71 0.73
0.41 Chad 0.000.000.000.000.400.50 0.50 0.50 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.37 0.40 0.40
0.35 Ghana 0.000.000.000.000.440.40 0.40 0.40 1.38 1.10 1.10 1.10 0.48 0.44 0.44
1.62 Sudan 0.000.000.000.000.851.00 1.00 1.00 0.64 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.03 0.85 0.85
0.48 Congo (Kinshasa) 0.000.000.000.000.370.48 0.48 0.48 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.37 0.37 0.37
0.36 Burkina 0.000.000.000.000.270.35 0.35 0.35 0.73 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.26 0.27 0.27
0.22 Guinea 0.000.000.000.000.260.21 0.21 0.21 1.38 1.24 1.24 1.24 0.30 0.26 0.26
0.41 Cameroon 0.000.000.000.000.550.40 0.40 0.40 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.38 0.57 0.55 0.55
0.34 Mali 0.000.000.000.000.330.35 0.35 0.35 0.95 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.33 0.33 0.33
0.35 Malawi -1.57-0.010.000.000.380.36 0.37 0.37 1.09 1.05 1.03 1.03 0.39 0.38 0.38
0.08 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.000.000.090.08 0.08 0.08 1.21 1.13 1.13 1.13 0.09 0.09 0.09
0.30 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.300.30 0.30 0.30 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.30 0.30 0.30
0.10 Central African Republic 0.000.000.000.000.150.10 0.10 0.10 1.55 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.15 0.15 0.15
0.13 Benin 0.000.000.000.000.090.13 0.13 0.13 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.08 0.09 0.09
0.39 Mozambique 0.000.000.000.000.110.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.11 0.11 0.11
0.74 Niger -4.11-0.020.000.000.350.74 0.74 0.74 0.39 0.49 0.47 0.47 0.29 0.37 0.35
0.05 South Africa 9.090.010.000.000.120.05 0.06 0.06 1.19 2.12 2.00 2.00 0.06 0.11 0.12
Southeast Asia
0.68 Indonesia -0.86-0.010.000.001.150.66 0.63 0.63 1.68 1.77 1.83 1.83 1.15 1.16 1.15
0.88 Burma 0.000.000.000.001.400.89 0.89 0.89 1.56 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.37 1.40 1.40
0.22 Vietnam 3.770.020.000.000.550.23 0.24 0.24 2.28 2.30 2.29 2.29 0.49 0.53 0.55
0.03 Thailand 0.000.000.000.000.050.03 0.03 0.03 1.53 1.67 1.67 1.67 0.05 0.05 0.05
South America
0.38 Argentina 22.200.220.000.001.200.33 0.34 0.34 2.67 2.94 3.53 3.53 1.02 0.98 1.20
0.10 Brazil -20.33-0.070.000.000.290.11 0.10 0.10 3.36 3.37 2.90 2.90 0.33 0.36 0.29
0.06Egypt 0.000.000.000.000.190.06 0.06 0.06 3.17 3.17 3.17 3.17 0.19 0.19 0.19
0.06Mexico 0.000.000.000.000.100.06 0.06 0.06 1.98 1.75 1.75 1.75 0.12 0.10 0.10
0.18Others -3.74-0.020.000.000.490.20 0.20 0.20 2.58 2.57 2.51 2.51 0.47 0.51 0.49
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 14 Sunflowerseed Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
23.77World -6.25-2.68-0.70-0.2840.2024.65 24.21 23.99 1.51 1.74 1.67 1.68 36.00 42.87 40.48
0.75United States 20.720.19-4.38-0.051.110.60 0.66 0.61 1.70 1.54 1.76 1.82 1.26 0.92 1.16
23.02Total Foreign -6.84-2.87-0.59-0.2339.0824.05 23.55 23.38 1.51 1.74 1.67 1.67 34.73 41.95 39.32
none
12.61Former Soviet Union - 12 -11.52-2.68-1.44-0.3020.5513.52 13.30 13.30 1.40 1.72 1.57 1.55 17.66 23.23 20.85
6.13 Russia -9.99-1.05-3.06-0.309.506.80 6.50 6.50 1.30 1.55 1.51 1.46 7.96 10.55 9.80
5.50 Ukraine -13.79-1.600.000.0010.005.60 5.60 5.60 1.64 2.07 1.79 1.79 9.00 11.60 10.00
0.30 Moldova -9.82-0.050.000.000.450.30 0.30 0.30 0.99 1.67 1.50 1.50 0.30 0.50 0.45
0.68 Kazakhstan 4.710.030.000.000.600.82 0.90 0.90 0.59 0.70 0.67 0.67 0.40 0.57 0.60
1.94South America 11.900.32-6.25-0.203.001.69 1.82 1.72 1.85 1.59 1.76 1.74 3.58 2.68 3.20
1.62 Argentina 19.050.40-7.41-0.202.501.30 1.50 1.40 1.91 1.62 1.80 1.79 3.10 2.10 2.70
0.02 Uruguay 25.710.010.000.000.040.03 0.03 0.03 1.10 1.40 1.47 1.47 0.02 0.04 0.04
0.17 Bolivia -44.44-0.120.000.000.150.18 0.10 0.10 1.47 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.25 0.27 0.15
0.07 Brazil 2.560.010.000.000.200.13 0.13 0.13 1.57 1.50 1.54 1.54 0.11 0.20 0.20
0.05 Paraguay 31.250.030.000.000.110.05 0.06 0.06 1.78 1.60 1.69 1.69 0.10 0.08 0.11
0.89China 2.040.050.000.002.500.97 0.98 0.98 2.61 2.54 2.56 2.56 2.32 2.45 2.50
4.29European Union - 28 -3.39-0.302.600.228.584.51 4.20 4.20 1.65 1.97 1.99 2.04 7.09 8.88 8.36
0.68 France 1.270.020.000.001.600.77 0.68 0.68 2.31 2.05 2.37 2.37 1.57 1.58 1.60
0.61 Hungary 10.540.164.840.081.630.59 0.60 0.60 2.14 2.47 2.58 2.71 1.30 1.47 1.55
0.75 Spain -17.20-0.18-6.37-0.060.850.85 0.82 0.80 0.85 1.21 1.10 1.06 0.64 1.03 0.91
0.11 Italy -2.47-0.010.000.000.240.11 0.11 0.11 1.71 2.25 2.19 2.19 0.19 0.24 0.24
0.09 Slovakia -1.590.000.000.000.190.08 0.08 0.08 2.19 2.28 2.30 2.30 0.20 0.19 0.19
1.27South Asia -6.30-0.080.000.001.191.15 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.40 1.27 1.19
0.80 India -2.99-0.020.000.000.650.75 0.73 0.73 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.70 0.67 0.65
0.47 Pakistan -10.00-0.060.000.000.540.40 0.36 0.36 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.70 0.60 0.54
0.60Turkey -14.29-0.204.350.051.200.69 0.60 0.53 1.88 2.03 1.92 2.26 1.13 1.40 1.15
0.51South Africa -6.21-0.050.000.000.800.60 0.61 0.61 1.10 1.42 1.31 1.31 0.56 0.85 0.80
0.54Burma 0.000.000.000.000.490.54 0.54 0.54 0.65 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.35 0.49 0.49
0.18Serbia 11.760.050.000.000.480.19 0.19 0.19 2.00 2.30 2.57 2.57 0.35 0.43 0.48
0.04Canada 15.380.010.000.000.060.03 0.03 0.03 2.18 1.86 1.76 1.76 0.09 0.05 0.06
0.03Australia 43.750.010.000.000.050.03 0.04 0.04 1.47 1.19 1.28 1.28 0.04 0.03 0.05
0.14Others -0.490.000.000.000.200.16 0.16 0.16 1.27 1.30 1.30 1.30 0.18 0.20 0.20
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 15 Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MMTPercent
Yield
(Metric tons per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MMT
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million metric tons)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
36.30World -1.09-0.78-0.54-0.3870.3136.15 36.16 36.16 1.75 1.97 1.96 1.94 63.67 71.09 70.70
0.70United States 14.040.14-13.84-0.181.150.51 0.68 0.63 1.59 1.96 1.96 1.82 1.11 1.00 1.33
35.59Total Foreign -1.31-0.92-0.29-0.2069.1735.64 35.48 35.53 1.76 1.97 1.95 1.95 62.56 70.08 69.37
none
6.33European Union - 28 11.362.400.430.1023.506.75 6.81 6.81 3.10 3.12 3.44 3.45 19.63 21.10 23.40
1.31 Germany 5.570.320.000.006.101.46 1.44 1.44 3.69 3.95 4.25 4.25 4.82 5.78 6.10
1.61 France 25.861.130.000.005.501.44 1.50 1.50 3.40 3.04 3.66 3.66 5.46 4.37 5.50
0.76 United Kingdom 20.830.440.000.002.570.72 0.72 0.72 3.38 2.97 3.57 3.57 2.56 2.13 2.57
0.84 Poland 1.570.043.640.102.840.96 0.86 0.86 2.65 2.92 3.19 3.31 2.22 2.80 2.74
0.40 Czech Republic 0.490.010.000.001.450.42 0.39 0.39 2.77 3.45 3.73 3.73 1.11 1.44 1.45
0.13 Denmark 3.230.020.000.000.700.18 0.19 0.19 3.71 3.85 3.80 3.80 0.48 0.68 0.70
0.17 Hungary 14.500.080.000.000.600.20 0.23 0.23 2.40 2.59 2.61 2.61 0.40 0.52 0.60
0.11 Romania 43.660.310.000.001.020.29 0.43 0.43 1.53 2.45 2.37 2.37 0.17 0.71 1.02
0.11 Slovakia -0.270.000.000.000.370.14 0.13 0.13 1.99 2.73 2.98 2.98 0.21 0.37 0.37
0.11 Sweden -10.51-0.040.000.000.300.12 0.10 0.10 2.97 2.73 3.14 3.14 0.32 0.33 0.30
0.26 Lithuania 0.360.000.000.000.550.26 0.25 0.25 2.43 2.13 2.22 2.22 0.63 0.55 0.55
0.12 Latvia -14.14-0.040.000.000.260.13 0.11 0.11 2.58 2.32 2.32 2.32 0.30 0.30 0.26
0.06 Austria -6.09-0.010.000.000.190.06 0.05 0.05 2.64 3.40 3.49 3.49 0.15 0.20 0.19
0.06 Finland 5.880.010.000.000.090.05 0.06 0.06 1.25 1.60 1.64 1.64 0.08 0.09 0.09
0.09 Estonia -2.300.000.000.000.170.09 0.09 0.09 1.82 2.02 1.98 1.98 0.16 0.17 0.17
7.43China 1.670.240.000.0014.707.52 7.50 7.50 1.88 1.92 1.96 1.96 14.01 14.46 14.70
South Asia
6.75 India 2.740.200.000.007.507.13 7.20 7.20 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.04 6.80 7.30 7.50
0.38 Pakistan -6.25-0.020.000.000.300.36 0.35 0.35 0.92 0.89 0.86 0.86 0.35 0.32 0.30
0.31 Bangladesh 0.000.000.000.000.230.31 0.31 0.31 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.23 0.23 0.23
8.80Canada -19.82-3.56-2.04-0.3014.408.01 7.75 7.80 1.58 2.24 1.90 1.85 13.87 17.96 14.70
3.27Australia -8.24-0.310.000.003.452.66 2.70 2.70 1.27 1.42 1.28 1.28 4.14 3.76 3.45
Former Soviet Union - 12
0.55 Ukraine -6.46-0.150.000.002.201.00 0.85 0.85 2.38 2.36 2.59 2.59 1.30 2.35 2.20
0.97 Russia 7.680.110.000.001.501.11 1.10 1.10 1.07 1.25 1.36 1.36 1.04 1.39 1.50
0.42 Belarus 3.550.020.000.000.700.40 0.43 0.43 1.67 1.68 1.65 1.65 0.71 0.68 0.70
0.08Paraguay 133.330.070.000.000.130.05 0.09 0.09 1.37 1.15 1.40 1.40 0.11 0.05 0.13
0.30Others 17.120.080.000.000.560.35 0.40 0.40 1.25 1.38 1.41 1.41 0.37 0.48 0.56
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 16 Copra, Palm Kernel, and Palm Oil Production
Country / Region
Production
(Million metric tons)
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14
2014/15 Proj.
Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent
Change in Production
From last month From last year
Oilseed, Copra
0.00 0.00 -0.05 -2.08 Philippines 2.65 2.352.352.40
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Indonesia 1.56 1.581.581.58
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 India 0.67 0.670.670.67
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Vietnam 0.24 0.240.240.24
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mexico 0.21 0.210.210.21
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.13 0.130.130.13
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Thailand 0.07 0.070.070.07
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sri Lanka 0.07 0.070.070.07
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Solomon Islands 0.03 0.030.030.03
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cote d'Ivoire 0.03 0.030.030.03
0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.90 World 5.80 5.535.535.58
Oilseed, Palm Kernel
0.00 0.00 0.56 6.88 Indonesia 7.48 8.708.708.14
0.00 0.00 0.20 3.92 Malaysia 4.87 5.305.305.10
0.00 0.00 0.01 1.39 Nigeria 0.70 0.730.730.73
0.00 0.00 0.01 2.27 Thailand 0.43 0.450.450.44
0.00 0.00 0.01 4.17 Colombia 0.21 0.250.250.24
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.13 0.130.130.13
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cameroon 0.11 0.110.110.11
0.00 0.00 0.01 9.09 Ecuador 0.11 0.120.120.11
0.00 0.00 0.01 10.00 Honduras 0.10 0.110.110.10
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Brazil 0.10 0.100.100.10
0.00 0.00 0.81 5.14 World 14.79 16.5716.5715.76
Oil, Palm
0.00 0.00 2.50 8.06 Indonesia 28.50 33.5033.5031.00
0.00 0.00 1.05 5.20 Malaysia 19.32 21.2521.2520.20
0.00 0.00 0.10 4.65 Thailand 2.14 2.252.252.15
0.00 0.00 0.03 2.88 Colombia 0.97 1.071.071.04
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nigeria 0.91 0.930.930.93
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.61 0.630.630.63
0.00 0.00 0.01 1.79 Ecuador 0.54 0.580.580.57
0.00 0.00 0.01 2.33 Honduras 0.41 0.440.440.43
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cote d'Ivoire 0.39 0.400.400.40
0.00 0.00 0.01 2.86 Guatemala 0.32 0.360.360.35
0.00 0.00 3.69 6.19 World 55.97 63.2963.2959.60
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
Table 17 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production
From last month From last year
MBalesPercent
Yield
(Kilograms per hectare)
Oct 2012/13 MBales
Country / Region
Area
(Million hectares)
Production
(Million 480 lb. bales)
Change in Production
2012/13
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Sep
Prel.
2013/14 Oct
Prel.
2013/14 Sep Oct Percent
2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.
2012/13
34.31World -0.19-0.221.151.36119.3732.65 34.08 34.25 780 798 754 759 122.89 119.60 118.01
3.79United States 25.923.35-1.71-0.2816.263.05 4.00 4.00 994 921 900 885 17.32 12.91 16.54
30.52Total Foreign -3.35-3.571.621.64103.1229.59 30.08 30.25 753 785 734 742 105.58 106.69 101.48
none
South Asia
12.00 India 0.000.003.331.0031.0011.70 12.50 12.75 517 577 523 529 28.50 31.00 30.00
3.00 Pakistan 3.160.303.160.309.803.00 3.00 3.05 675 689 689 700 9.30 9.50 9.50
Former Soviet Union - 12
1.32 Uzbekistan 0.000.000.000.004.101.29 1.29 1.29 745 695 695 695 4.50 4.10 4.10
0.60 Turkmenistan -3.33-0.050.000.001.450.58 0.55 0.55 581 568 579 579 1.60 1.50 1.45
0.20 Tajikistan -5.56-0.030.000.000.430.19 0.18 0.18 599 516 529 529 0.55 0.45 0.43
0.15 Kazakhstan -4.41-0.020.000.000.330.14 0.13 0.13 611 536 544 544 0.42 0.34 0.33
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.58 Burkina 0.000.000.000.001.200.56 0.58 0.58 441 471 454 454 1.18 1.20 1.20
0.52 Mali 17.650.150.000.001.000.48 0.57 0.57 362 386 382 382 0.87 0.85 1.00
0.24 Zimbabwe 0.000.00-32.43-0.120.250.23 0.30 0.23 236 237 269 237 0.26 0.25 0.37
0.25 Benin 10.000.050.000.000.550.27 0.28 0.28 479 403 428 428 0.55 0.50 0.55
0.38 Cote d'Ivoire 6.670.050.000.000.800.36 0.39 0.39 398 460 447 447 0.69 0.75 0.80
0.21 Cameroon 0.000.000.000.000.500.22 0.22 0.22 477 495 495 495 0.46 0.50 0.50
0.30 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.300.29 0.30 0.30 236 225 218 218 0.33 0.30 0.30
0.06 Sudan 0.000.000.000.000.090.06 0.06 0.06 454 356 356 356 0.13 0.09 0.09
South America
0.90 Brazil -12.50-1.00-4.11-0.307.001.12 1.05 1.00 1,452 1,555 1,514 1,524 6.00 8.00 7.30
0.36 Argentina -11.89-0.15-4.44-0.051.080.56 0.52 0.50 454 474 471 468 0.75 1.22 1.13
0.05 Paraguay 28.570.01-18.18-0.010.050.02 0.03 0.03 363 381 399 392 0.08 0.04 0.06
Middle East
0.41 Turkey 36.960.850.000.003.150.33 0.43 0.43 1,407 1,517 1,595 1,595 2.65 2.30 3.15
0.13 Syria -50.00-0.300.000.000.300.10 0.06 0.06 1,263 1,306 1,089 1,089 0.73 0.60 0.30
0.11 Iran -6.25-0.020.000.000.300.12 0.11 0.11 591 606 594 594 0.29 0.32 0.30
0.45Australia -43.90-1.80-8.00-0.202.300.44 0.28 0.25 2,251 2,047 1,979 2,003 4.60 4.10 2.50
0.36European Union - 28 11.630.192.880.051.790.31 0.34 0.34 909 1,119 1,105 1,136 1.49 1.60 1.74
0.29 Greece 5.920.083.570.051.450.25 0.27 0.27 912 1,217 1,150 1,191 1.19 1.37 1.40
0.07 Spain 47.730.110.000.000.330.06 0.08 0.08 893 748 943 943 0.29 0.22 0.33
0.14Egypt 20.690.090.000.000.530.13 0.16 0.16 746 729 737 737 0.49 0.44 0.53
0.16Mexico 29.870.280.000.001.200.12 0.18 0.18 1,455 1,691 1,493 1,493 1.04 0.92 1.20
7.67Others -6.08-2.182.970.9733.657.01 6.61 6.65 1,083 1,113 1,076 1,102 38.16 35.82 32.68
World and Selected Countries and Regions
October 2014
TABLE 18 The table below presents a record of the differences between the October projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error” means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 1.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.0 percent. The average difference between the October projection and the final estimate is 7.8 million tons, ranging from 1.2 million to 26.7 million tons. The October projection has been below the estimate 23 times and above 9 times.
RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/
COMMODITY AND REGION
Root mean square error
90 percent confidence
interval
Difference between forecast and final estimate
Average Smallest Largest
Years Below final
Above final
Percent ---Million metric tons---
WHEAT
World 1.8 3.0 7.8 1.2 26.7 23 9
U.S. 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.2 11 15
Foreign 2.0 3.4 7.9 1.4 26.8 22 9
COARSE GRAINS 2/
World 1.8 3.1 13.5 0.8 33.7 26 6
U.S. 2.9 4.8 4.6 0.1 17.9 18 13
Foreign 2.2 3.7 11.5 0.6 27.7 26 5
RICE (Milled)
World 2.4 4.1 6.5 0.0 20.9 25 6
U.S. 3.3 5.7 0.2 0.0 0.5 17 14
Foreign 2.5 4.2 6.7 0.1 21.0 25 6
SOYBEANS
World 4.6 7.7 6.1 0.1 28.7 17 15
U.S. 3.0 5.1 1.5 0.0 3.8 13 19
Foreign 7.5 12.7 6.1 0.0 28.1 16 16
COTTON ---Million 480-lb. bales---
World 4.3 7.3 2.7 0.0 10.6 18 13
U.S. 4.6 7.8 0.6 0.0 1.7 20 12
Foreign 5.0 8.6 2.5 0.0 10.4 17 14
UNITED STATES -------Million bushels-------
CORN 3.0 5.0 176 5 618 18 14
SORGHUM 4.9 8.4 19 1 71 18 14
BARLEY 1.5 2.6 4 0 24 9 14
OATS 2.7 4.6 2 0 18 6 11
1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2013/14. Final for grains, soybeans and cotton is defined as the first November estimates following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2012/13, and for 2013/14 last month’s estimate. 2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain
October 2014 Office of Global Analysis, FAS, USDA
October 2014