united states department of agriculture national ... · 9/28/2018 · small grains annual summary...
TRANSCRIPT
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12:00 P.M.
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
Small Grains Summary
Grain StocksExecutive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief
Crops Branch
September 28, 2018
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Field Crops Grain Stocks Oilseed Stocks
Wheat Corn Soybeans
Barley Wheat Sunflower
Oats Barley Safflower
Rye Oats Mustard Seed
Sorghum
Contents
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
September Ag Survey Off- Farm Grain Stocks Survey
Survey Type Farmer Reported Off-Farm Grain Stock Facilities
Collection
Method
Mail, Phone, Internet,
Personal Interview
Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal
Interview
Crops Included Barley, Oats, Rye, Wheat
Barley, Corn, Mustard Seed,
Oats, Soybean, Safflower,
Sorghum, Sunflower, Wheat
StatesAll States Except HI, MA, NH,
RI, and VTAll States Except AK, HI, and NV
Sample Size 66,343 ~ 8,500 Facilities
Collection Period August 30 – September 15 August 30 – September 18
Survey Overview
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Small Grains Annual Summary
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit September Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Wheat, Winter
Planted Mil Ac 32.5 -0.6 -0.5
Harvested Mil Ac 24.7 -0.3 -2.2
Yield Bu/Ac 47.9 NC -4.6
Production Bil Bu 1.18 -0.4 -6.7
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32.5
24.7
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Million AcresWinter Wheat Acres
United States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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47.9
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Bushels per AcreWinter Wheat Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)
USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Small Grains Annual Summary
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit September Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Wheat, Spring
Planted Mil Ac 13.2 -<0.1 +19.8
Harvested Mil Ac 12.9 -<0.1 +27.1
Yield Bu/Ac 48.3 +1.5 +17.8
Production Mil Bu 623 +1.5 +50.0
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13.2
12.9
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Million AcresOther Spring Wheat Acres
United States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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48.3
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Bushels per Acre
Other Spring Wheat YieldUnited States
Yield Linear (Yield)
USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Small Grains Annual Summary
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit September Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Wheat, Durum
Planted Mil Ac 2.07 +9.4 -10.5
Harvested Mil Ac 1.97 +6.8 -6.6
Yield Bu/Ac 39.3 -1.5 +51.2
Production Mil Bu 77.3 +5.2 +41.1
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2.07
1.97
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Million AcresDurum Wheat Acres
United States
Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS
9-28-18
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39.3
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Bushels per AcreDurum Wheat Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)
USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Small Grains Annual Summary
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit September Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Wheat, All
Planted Mil Ac 47.8 -<0.1 +3.9
Harvested Mil Ac 39.6 +0.1 +5.5
Yield Bu/Ac 47.6 +0.4 +2.8
Production Bil Bu 1.88 +0.4 +8.3
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
1.83
1.84
1.85
1.86
1.87
1.88
1.89
1.90
1.91
1.92
1.93
July August Final
Billion Bushels
2018 United States All Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
1.15
1.17
1.19
1.21
1.23
1.25
1.27
1.29
1.31
1.33
1.35
May June July August Final
Billion Bushels
2018 United States Winter Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
560
570
580
590
600
610
620
630
640
650
660
July August Final
Million Bushels
2018 United States Other Spring Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
July August Final
Million Bushels
2018 United States Durum Wheat ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Small Grains Annual Summary
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit September Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Barley
Planted Mil Ac 2.54 -0.2 +2.5
Harvested Mil Ac 1.98 -3.3 +1.2
Yield Bu/Ac 77.4 +1.4 +6.6
Production Mil Bu 153 -2.0 +7.9
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Small Grains Annual Summary
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit September Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Oats
Planted Mil Ac 2.75 -4.9 +6.1
Harvested Mil Ac 0.865 -14.3 +8.0
Yield Bu/Ac 64.9 -0.3 +5.2
Production Mil Bu 56.1 -14.5 +13.6
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Small Grains Annual Summary
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit September Previous Previous
2018 Forecast Season
Rye
Planted Mil Ac 2.01 +2.0 +2.5
Harvested Mil Ac 0.273 -22.7 -4.5
Yield Bu/Ac 30.9 NA -8.8
Production Mil Bu 8.43 NA -13.0
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Crop 2016 2017 2018
Percent
Other Spring Wheat 8.4 8.1 10.3
Durum Wheat 17.0 8.5 28.5
Barley 5.7 7.0 10.7
Oats 7.7 13.4 10.1
Percent of Acres Left to be HarvestedUnited States
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2.82
2.87
3.14
2.86
2.99
2.85
2.62
2.81
3.28
2.922.98
2.38
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19
Billion BushelsAll Wheat Stocks
United States
Supply Sep Dec Mar JunUSDA-NASS
9-28-18
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
2.15
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
September
Billion Bushels
2018 United States All Wheat StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
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14.313.7
14.7
14.113.4
11.7
14.7
15.4
15.3
16.9 16.9
2.14
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18
Billion BushelsCorn Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep
USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
September
Billion Bushels
2018 United States Corn StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
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3.253.17
3.50 3.48 3.31
3.21
3.50
4.024.12
4.49
4.71
0.438
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18
Billion BushelsSoybean Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep
USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
375
390
405
420
435
450
465
480
495
September
Million Bushels
2018 United States Soybean StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Previous
Estimates
Sept 28
EstimatesChange
Million Bushels
Sept 1, 2017 Beginning Stocks 302 302 NC
2017 Production 4,392 4,411 +19
Imports *22 *22 NC
Total Supply 4,716 4,735 +19
Crushings *2,055 *2,055 NC
Exports *2,130 *2,130 NC
Seed *104 *104 NC
Measured Disappearance *4,289 *4,289 NC
Ending Stocks *395 438 +43
Residual 32 8 -24
2017 Soybean Crop
*WAOB Forecast – September WASDE Report
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
September 1, 2018 Grain Stocks
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit September Previous Previous
2018 Estimate Year
Stocks
Barley Mil Bu 175 NA -2.9
Oats Mil Bu 74.9 NA +4.0
Sorghum Mil Bu 34.9 NA +4.2
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
September 1, 2018 Oilseed Stocks
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit September Previous Previous
2018 Estimate Year
Stocks
All Sunflower Mil Lbs 386 NA -34.5
Safflower Mil Lbs 10.7 NA -42.6
Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 9.30 NA +31.7
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
Release Date Report Title
October 1 CAIR: Cotton, Fats & Oils, and Grain Crushings
October 11Crop Production
Cotton Ginnings
October 19 Cattle on Feed
October 23 Cotton Ginnings
October 26 Rice Stocks
October 30 Ag Prices
Upcoming Reports
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USDA-NASS
9-28-18
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United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov
For Questions202-720-2127
800-727-9540