united states department of agriculture national ...€¦ · october 2019 crop production % change...
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United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
October Crop ProductionExecutive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief
Crops Branch
October 10, 2019
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
Field Crops Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops
Corn Citrus Dry Beans
Soybeans Pecans Tobacco
Cotton Sugarbeets
Rice Sugarcane
Peanuts
Sorghum
Alfalfa Hay
Other Hay
Canola
Sunflowers
Contents
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
Tree
Inventory
Limb Count
Objective
Surveys
(Size and
Drop)
Fruit Maturity
Survey Type Field
Observations
Field
ObservationsField
Observations
Laboratory
Tests
Crops Included All All All Oranges,
Grapefruit
Sample Size 247,550.3
acres
3,361 groves 1,984 groves 424 samples
Collection
Period
July 1, 2018 –
July 1, 2019
July 8 –
September 16
September
3 - 25
September
23 - 24
Survey OverviewFlorida Citrus
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Production
Oranges Mil Tons 5.33 NA -<0.1
Grapefruit Thou Tons 592 NA +5.0
Tangerines &
MandarinsThou Tons 970 NA -10.8
Lemons Thou Tons 856 NA -11.4
13.0
13.012.4
11.5
12.9
9.39.02
7.63
10.08
9.13
8.24
8.91 8.98
8.27
6.776.35
6.09
5.09
3.88
5.33 5.33
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Million Tons
Orange ProductionUnited States
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
Ag Yield Objective Yield
Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement
Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Cotton, Soybeans
Sample Size 10,861 2,905
Collection Period Sept 28 – Oct 4 Sept 24 – Oct 1
Survey Overview
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Season
Planted Area
Corn Mil Ac 89.9 -0.1 +0.9
Soybeans Mil Ac 76.5 -0.3 -14.3
Sorghum Mil Ac 5.26 -0.6 -7.6
Sunflowers Mil Ac 1.36 -1.5 +4.4
Canola Mil Ac 2.04 +1.1 +2.5
Dry Edible Beans Mil Ac 1.31 -1.6 -37.2
Sugarbeets Mil Ac 1.13 +0.4 +2.0
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Corn
Harvested Mil Ac 81.8 -0.2 +0.1
Yield Bu/Ac 168.4 +0.1 -4.5
Production Bil Bu 13.8 -0.1 -4.4
9.43 9.92 9.50
8.97
10.1
11.8
11.1
10.5
13.0
12.0
13.1
12.4 12.3
10.8
13.814.2
13.6
15.1
14.6 14.413.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Billion BushelsCorn for Grain Production
United States
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
Sept
Oct
Nov
Final
Sept
Oct
Nov
Final
Sept
Oct
Nov
Final
Sept
Oct
Nov
Final
Sept
Oct
Nov
Final
SeptOct
0.325
0.330
0.335
0.340
0.345
0.350
0.355
0.360
0.365
28,000 28,200 28,400 28,600 28,800 29,000 29,200 29,400 29,600
Pounds/Ear
Ears Per Acre
Corn Objective Yield RegionEars per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight
Note: Implied Ear Weight is only calculated for display purposes. Ears per Acre are from survey.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Implied Ear Weight = Published Yield * 56 / Ears per Acre
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
Year Dent Stage Mature
Percent
2015 16 70
2016 17 73
2017 41 51
2018 13 80
2019 49 29
Corn Objective Yield - OctoberPercent of Samples Processed in the Lab
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
NASSForecast
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
12.7
12.9
13.1
13.3
13.5
13.7
13.9
14.1
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels
2019 United States Corn ProductionIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Soybeans
Harvested Mil Ac 75.6 -0.3 -13.7
Yield Bu/Ac 46.9 -2.1 -7.3
Production Bil Bu 3.55 -2.3 -19.8
2.652.76
2.892.76
2.45
3.123.07
3.20
2.68
2.97
3.36 3.33
3.103.04
3.36
3.93 3.93
4.30
4.41 4.43
3.55
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Billion BushelsSoybean Production
United States
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
Sept
Oct
Nov
Final
Sept
OctNov
Final
Sept
Oct
Nov
Final
Sept
Oct
Nov
Final
Sept
Oct
Nov
Final
Sept
Oct
0.290
0.300
0.310
0.320
0.330
0.340
0.350
0.360
1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900 1,950 2,000
Grams/Pod
Pods Per 18 Square Feet
Soybean Objective Yield RegionPods per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight
Note: Implied Pod Weight is only calculated for display purposes. Pods per 18 Square Feet are from survey.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Implied Pod Weight = Published Yield / Pods per 18 Square Feet / 0.0889
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
Year Mature
Percent
2015 54
2016 53
2017 49
2018 57
2019 25
Soybean Objective Yield - OctoberPercent of Samples Processed in the Lab
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
NASSForecast
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
3.45
3.55
3.65
3.75
3.85
3.95
4.05
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels2019 United States Soybean Production
Industry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
All Cotton
Harvested Mil Ac 12.5 NC +22.6
Yield Lb/Ac 833 -0.7 -3.6
Production Mil Bls 21.7 -0.7 +18.2
17.017.2
20.3
17.2
18.3
23.323.9
21.6
19.2
12.8
12.2
18.1
15.6
17.3
12.9
16.3
12.9
17.2
20.9
18.4
21.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Million BalesAll Cotton Production
United States
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Rice
Harvested Mil Ac 2.48 NC -15.0
Yield Lbs/Ac 7,616 +0.7 -1.0
Production Mil Cwt 189 +0.7 -15.9
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Peanuts
Harvested Mil Ac 1.38 NC +0.7
Yield Lbs/Ac 3,964 -3.0 -0.9
Production Bil Lbs 5.48 -3.0 -0.3
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Sorghum
Harvested Mil Ac 4.72 -0.4 -6.8
Yield Bu/Ac 73.9 -0.5 +2.5
Production Mil Bu 349 -0.8 -4.5
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Alfalfa Hay
Harvested Mil Ac 16.8 NC +1.3
Yield Tons/Ac 3.22 -2.1 +1.6
Production Mil Tons 54.2 -2.1 +3.0
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
All Other Hay
Harvested Mil Ac 35.9 NC -0.8
Yield Tons/Ac 2.13 +0.9 +8.7
Production Mil Tons 76.7 +1.4 +8.1
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Production
Sugarcane Mil Tons 34.8 +0.1 +0.7
Sugarbeets Mil Tons 33.6 +0.2 +1.4
All Tobacco Mil Lbs 448 -7.2 -16.0
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Production
Canola Bil Lbs 3.71 NA +2.6
Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.25 NA +6.9
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
October 2019 Crop Production
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit October Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Production
Dry Edible Beans Mil Cwt 23.8 -3.1 -36.5
Pecans Mil Lbs 281 NA +15.7
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
Release Date Title
October 23 Cotton Ginnings
October 25Cattle on Feed
Rice Stocks
October 31 Agricultural Prices
November 1 CAIR: Cotton, Fats & Oils, Flour Milling, and Grain Crushings
November 8Crop Production
Cotton Ginnings
Upcoming Events
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
USDA
Data Users’ Meeting
USDA NASS Data Users’ MeetingTuesday, October 15, 2019
American Farm Bureau Federation
600 Maryland Ave SW #1000w
Washington, DC 20024
USDA-NASS
10-10-19
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov
For Questions202-720-2127
800-727-9540