united states country team report
DESCRIPTION
United States Country Team Report. Third NTA Workshop Honolulu, Hawaii January 20, 2006. Team members. Pablo Comelatto Avi Ebenstein Ron Lee Tim Miller Eric Shiff Gretchen Stockmayer. Accomplishments. Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
United States Country Team Report
Third NTA Workshop
Honolulu, Hawaii
January 20, 2006
Team members
• Pablo Comelatto
• Avi Ebenstein
• Ron Lee
• Tim Miller
• Eric Shiff
• Gretchen Stockmayer
Accomplishments
1. Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.
2. Most Public Transfers, 1850 to 2100.
3. Aggregate Control Totals, 1929-2004.
4. Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960, 1963-2003.
Difficulties encountered
1. Using three micro-data sources rather than a single source.
2. Un-representative samples. (e.g. Industrial workers and their families)
3. Measuring household savings. (Residual of a residual).
4. Smoothing.
5. Adjusting to control totals.
Plans for next year (next 3 years?)
Deepen accounting:Details on consumption (capital/current), reallocations (capital/credit/land), and transfers (education, health, other).Develop Wealth Accounts.
Project accounts:2007 to 2100?
Widen accounting: Education and Gender
Extend accounts:Back to 1776?
Accomplishments
1. Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.
2. Most Public Transfers, 1850 to 2100.
3. Aggregate Control Totals, 1929-2004.
4. Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960, 1963-2003.
0 20 40 60 80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Inflow of Resources, US 2000
Age
$ 0
00
s
0 20 40 60 80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Outflow of Resources, US 2000
Age
$ 0
00
s
0 20 40 60 80
0
20
40
60
80
Inflow of Resources, US 2000
Age
$ 0
00
s
Labor Income Public TransfersPrivate Transfers
Assets
Composition of Per-Capita Inflow of Resources By Age
0 20 40 60 80
0
20
40
60
80
Outflow of Resources, US 2000
Age
$ 0
00
s
Consumption
Public Transfers
Private Transfers
Assets
Composition of Per-Capita Outflow of Resources By Age
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Inflo
wO
utflo
wN
et
PublicTransfers
PrivateTransfers
AssetReallocations
Labor Earnings& Consumption
How the per-capita life cycle deficit was funded: United States, 2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 20 40 60 80
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Inflo
wO
utflo
wN
et
PublicTransfers
PrivateTransfers
AssetReallocations
Labor Earnings& Consumption
How the per-capita life cycle deficit was funded: United States, 2000
0 20 40 60 80
0
50
100
150
200
250
Inflow of Resources, US 2000
Age
$ b
illio
ns
Labor Income
AssetsPublic Transfers
Composition of Aggregate Inflow of Resources By Age
0 20 40 60 80
0
50
100
150
200
250
Outflow of Resources, US 2000
Age
$ b
illio
ns
Consumption
Private Transfers
Public Transfers
Assets
Composition of Aggregate Outflow of Resources By Age
Inflo
wO
utflo
wN
et
PublicTransfers
PrivateTransfers
AssetReallocations
Labor Earnings& Consumption
How the aggregate life cycle deficit was funded: United States, 2000
0
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
0 20 40 60 80
-100
-50
0
50
100
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80
0
50
100
150
200
0
50
100
150
200
0 20 40 60 80
-100
-50
0
50
100
Accomplishments
1. Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.
2. Most Public Transfers, 1850 to 2100.
3. Aggregate Control Totals, 1929-2004.
4. Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960, 1963-2003.
Accomplishments
1. Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.
2. Most Public Transfers, 1850 to 2100.
3. Aggregate Control Totals, 1929-2004.
4. Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960, 1963-2003.
1940 1960 1980 2000
20
30
40
50
Year
Pe
rce
nt
Aggregate Life Cycle Deficit as Percent of Labor Earnings, 1929-2004
(C – YL) / YL
Accomplishments
1. Complete National Transfer Flow Accounts for 2000.
2. Most Public Transfers, 1850 to 2100.
3. Aggregate Control Totals, 1929-2004.
4. Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1888, 1917, 1935, 1960, 1963-2003.
02,
000
4,00
06,
000
Fre
quen
cy
010
020
030
0$
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Labor Income Other Inc Consumption Health Frequency
Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey. Health spending is for 'sickness and death'
Age YLE 35 Age C 26 Totals in Thousands YLE 5094 KY 390 C 4802
United States - 1888Smoothed Income and Consumption by Age
05,
000
10,0
0015
,000
Fre
quen
cy
020
040
060
080
0$
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Labor Income Other Inc Consumption Frequency
Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Age YLE 36 Age C 25 Totals in Thousands YLE 18375 KY 741 C 18192
United States - 1917Smoothed Income and Consumption by Age
050
01,
000
1,50
02,
000
2,50
0F
requ
ency
020
040
060
080
0$
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Labor Inc Other Inc Cons Health Education Frequency
Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Age YLE 43 Age C 32 Totals in Thousands YLE 7370 KY 360 C 9631
United States - 1935Smoothed Income and Consumption by Age
01,
000
2,00
03,
000
4,00
05,
000
Fre
quen
cy
01,
000
2,00
03,
000
4,00
0$
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Labor Inc Other Inc Cons Health Education Frequency
Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey.
Age YLE 44 Age C 36 Totals in Thousands YLE 65279 KY 21769 C 70431
United States - 1960Smoothed Income and Consumption by Age
Next Step: Longitudinal Profiles
• Using the age data from 1988,1917,1935, and 1980-2000 and the aggregate control totals from 1929-2004 and with some heroic assumptions…
• We can obtain matrices for labor earnings, consumption, and the life cycle deficit by age and year from 1850 thru 2200.
• From these, we obtain the life cycle trajectories for birth cohorts.
Warning
These are preliminary results. We cut a few corners in getting the data ready. Best viewed as an example of what we’re going to be doing (more carefully).
0 20 40 60 80
-10
00
-50
00
50
01
00
01
50
0
Per-capita Life Cycle Deficit in 1850
Age
Ye
ar
20
00
do
llars
Ages 25 to 62
0 20 40 60 80
-20
00
0-1
00
00
01
00
00
20
00
03
00
00
Per-Capita Life Cycle Deficit in 2000
Age
Ye
ar
20
00
do
llars
Age 24 to 59
0 20 40 60 80
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Aggregate Life Cycle Deficit in 1850
Age
Bill
ion
s o
f Ye
ar
20
00
do
llars
$14 Billion (38%)
$6 Billion(16%)
$0.5 Billion(1.4%)
Labor Earnings were $37 Billion
34% of Population is Age 25 to 62
0 20 40 60 80
-50
05
0
Aggregate Life Cycle Deficit in 2000
Age
Bill
ion
s o
f Ye
ar
20
00
do
llars
$1.4 Trillion(22%)
Labor earnings were $6.6 Trillion
$1.0 Trillion(17%)
$1.9 Trillion(30%)
50% of Population is Age 24 to 59
0 20 40 60 80 100
05
00
01
00
00
15
00
0
Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1850 Birth Cohort
Age
Am
ou
nt i
n 2
00
0 d
olla
rs
0 20 40 60 80 100
01
00
00
20
00
03
00
00
40
00
0
Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1900 Birth Cohort
Age
Am
ou
nt i
n 2
00
0 d
olla
rs
0 20 40 60 80 100
02
00
00
40
00
06
00
00
80
00
0
Consumption and Labor Earnings, 1950 Birth Cohort
Age
Am
ou
nt i
n 2
00
0 d
olla
rs
0 20 40 60 80 100
05
00
00
10
00
00
15
00
00
Consumption and Labor Earnings, 2000 Birth Cohort
Age
Am
ou
nt i
n 2
00
0 d
olla
rs
0 20 40 60 80 100
-10
00
00
10
00
02
00
00
30
00
04
00
00
Life Cycle Deficit, 1900 Birth Cohort
Age
Am
ou
nt i
n 2
00
0 d
olla
rs
0 20 40 60 80 100
-15
00
0-1
00
00
-50
00
05
00
0
Survival-weighted Life Cycle Deficit, 1900 Birth Cohort
Age
Am
ou
nt i
n 2
00
0 d
olla
rs
0 20 40 60 80 100
-10
-50
51
0
Survival-weighted Life Cycle Deficit by Birth Cohort
Age
Pe
rce
nt o
f Life
time
Ea
rnin
gs
Born 1850Born 1900Born 1950Born 2000
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
1.3
01
.35
1.4
01
.45
Ratio of survival-weighted PV of Consumption to Earnings
Year of Birth
Ra
tio
Difficulties encountered
1. Using three micro-data sources rather than a single source.
2. Un-representative samples. (e.g. Industrial workers and their families)
3. Assigning educational expenditures.
4. Measuring household savings. (Residual of a residual).
5. Measuring the capital stock.
Plans for next year (next 3 years?)
Deepen accounting:Details on consumption (capital/current), reallocations (capital/credit/land), and transfers (education, health, other).Develop Wealth Accounts.
Project accounts:2007 to 2100?
Other dimensions: Education and Gender
Extend accounts:Back to 1776?