united international transportation company septemper 2013 · 2013-09-09 · company septemper 2013...
TRANSCRIPT
1 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
United International Transportation Company Septemper 2013
United International Transportation Company (4260.SE)
• Saudi car rental industry: Saudi Arabia dominates the Middle East car rental industry with a market share of 50%, followed by the UAE and Egypt. Relatively, other countries in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia have car rental markets just about 10–15% of the Kingdom’s market in size.
• Tourism driving growth: Despite high car ownership in Saudi Arabia, the car rental industry is driven by leisure tourism, including religious (Hajj and Umrah) and business tourism. Saudi Arabia’s tourism sector has witnessed strong growth in the last three years. After a 15.5% YoY decline in tourism spending (including transportation) in 2009 due to the economic downturn and concerns over H1N1 pandemic, there has been a firm recovery—spending increased 15.3% over 2009–12.
• United International Transportation Company LTD: United International Transportation Company Ltd (Budget) offers vehicle leasing and rental services under the name Budget Rent a Car in Saudi Arabia. The company’s services include domestic and international short-term rentals, long-term rentals, chauffeur service, limousine service, cross-border rentals, corporate program, pre-owned car sales, frequent renters loyalty program, and corporate leasing. Budget is one of the largest leasing and car rental players in the GCC region and is majority owned by the Zahid Group.
• Aggressive expansion plans to drive growth: Budget has launched an aggressive growth plan, which involves expanding operations into South Asia. South Asia is witnessing strong growth in the automobile and automobile leasing sectors.
• Expanding Fleet Size and higher rental yield to support growth: The Company’s fleet size currently stands at 21,602 units, as compared to 16,542 units in 2009, whereas the number of branches stood at 82 in 2012 as compared to 83 in 2009, as a result the car per branch ratio improved from 199 units to 263 units in 2012.
• Long-term leasing to drive top-line growth: The Company offers a diverse range of services including long term leasing. Going forward the company is expected to show a noticeable improvement due to long term lease revenues for religious tourism, construction activity and industrial projects.
• Valuation: Budget is the largest car rental operator in the Kingdom, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia (Soucre:Company). We expect Budget’s growth to be boosted by its strong network and service centers as well as robust brand recognition. Therefore, we initiate our coverage on Budget with a “Overweight” stance based on our 12-month target price of SAR 80.7/share.
Recommendation ‘Overweight’
12-month price target; SAR 80.7
Current Price: SAR62.50
Upside / (downside): 29.1%
Reuters code: 4260.SEBloomberg code: BUDGET:ABCountry: Saudi ArabiaSector: TransportPrimary Listing: TadawulM-Cap: SAR 1,921mn52 Weeks H/L (SAR): 72.25/38.60
Company Snapshot (in SAR,000) 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017eRevenues (Sales) 508.21 582.21 660.13 727.58 797.69 881.63 986.03 % Growth in Revenues 13% 15% 13% 10% 10% 11% 12%Net Income 100.73 125.78 152.44 178.69 204.59 241.94 301.78 % Growth in Net Income 6% 25% 21% 17% 14% 18% 25%EPS 5.50 5.15 5.00 5.86 6.71 7.93 9.89 EBIT Margins 22% 24% 25% 26% 27% 29% 32%Net Margins 20% 22% 23% 25% 26% 27% 31%ROE 19% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23%ROA 10% 11% 12% 14% 15% 17% 20%PE (x) 5.49 8.23 13.29 11.33 9.90 8.37 6.71 PB (x) 1.07 1.74 2.92 2.50 2.15 1.84 1.56
Source: Company reports, Aljazira
Key information
Key financial data
Sep
t 11
Oct
11
Nov
12
Dec
12
July
12
14
19
24
29
34
39
44
49
54
59
64
69
74
6200
6700
7200
7700
8200
8700TASI Budget
MA
y 12
Sep
t 12
Oct
12
Sep
t 13
Oct
13
Dec
13
MA
y 13
July
13
Price Chart
Initiation | KSA | Transport Sector
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran +966 2 6618602
Senior Analyst
Talha Nazar +966 2 6618603
2 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
United International Transportation Company Septemper 2013
Valuation
Discounted Cash Flow
We have used the Discounted Cash Flow valuation to attain company’s 12 month value.
Following are the key basic steps & assumptions we have assumed to value BUDGET.
5-year forecasted cash flow
Terminal value calculation based on Gordon Growth model
h 5-year forecasted cash flow
h Terminal value calculation based on Gordon Growth model
• Expected Terminal growth of 2% h Using Capital Asset Pricing Model to calculate cost of equity. The calculation is based on the following variables
• Risk free rate of 2.7% based on 10 years US bond Yield of 2.0% + country risk premium of Saudi Arabia of 0.7%• Equity Risk Premium of 10.1%• Beta of 0.699
h We are using weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) for discounting the future FCF of the company, where the calculation of WACC is based on the following variables
• Cost of equity based on CAPM• Cost of Debt at 5%• Contribution from equity and debt in Budget Capital structure is taken at 80.5% & 19.5%, respectively
Using the above assumption, we arrived at DCF based value of SAR 80.7/share for the company.
Price Target
h Based on the above assumption our price target for the company is SAR 80.7, we initiate our coverage on Budget with “Overweight” stance.
DCF Valuation 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FCFF (32.4) 116.8 129.0 193.8 262.3 Terminal value 3,463.5 PV of FCFE (31.4) 104.1 105.7 146.0 181.6 Present Value of Terminal 2,398.4 Sum of Present Value 506.1 Enterprise Value 2,904.5 Less: Debt (461.9)Add: Cash 17.9 Equity Value pre minority interest 2,460.5 Less: Minorities (0.4)Equity Value post minority interest 2,460.0 Number of Shares 30.5 Value/Share 80.7
Terminal Growth rate
WAC
C
1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%6.8% 77.8 82.8 88.3 94.7 102.0 110.57.8% 74.3 79.1 84.4 90.5 97.5 105.68.8% 71.0 75.5 80.7 86.5 93.2 101.09.8% 67.8 72.1 77.1 82.7 89.2 96.7
10.8% 64.7 68.9 73.7 79.1 85.3 92.5
DCF based valuation methodology
Sensitivity of DCF value to key assumptions
Initiation | KSA | Transport SectorInitiation | KSA | Transport Sector
3 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
United International Transportation Company Septemper 2013
Industry Overview:
Saudi car rental industry Saudi Arabia dominates the Middle East car rental industry with a market share of 50%, followed by the UAE and Egypt1. Relatively, other countries in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia have car rental markets just about 10–15% of the Kingdom’s market in size. According to the Car Rentals Commission at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry, car rental revenues in Saudi Arabia increased to ~SAR 2bn in 2012 from SAR 1.7bn2 in 2010.
Tourism, the key driver
Despite high car ownership in Saudi Arabia, the car rental industry is driven by leisure tourism, including religious (Hajj and Umrah) and business tourism and the lack of proper public transportation solutions. Car rental usually forms a very small portion of tourism expenditure. While the transport sector accounted for just 30.9% of the KSA’s tourism sector revenues of SAR 100.6bn in 2010, car rental companies accounted for only 5.4% of the transport sector’s revenues3 . Saudi Arabia’s tourism sector has witnessed strong growth in the last three years. After a 15.5% YoY decline in tourism spending (including transportation) in 2009 due to the economic downturn and concerns over H1N1 pandemic, there has been a firm recovery—spending increased 15.3% over 2009–12. The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTCC) forecasts an 8.2% CAGR increase in Saudi’s tourism spending between 2012–20E.
While leisure and business tourism are expected to witness a healthy growth, leisure tourism spending is expected to remain dominant in the Kingdom’s total travel and tourism expenditure. Business car rentals are expected to be driven by an improvement in business activity and higher government spending, while leisure car rentals would be led by rising religious tourism and domestic residents who rent cars for traveling to neighboring countries. Car rentals for religious travel are likely to be led by an increased influx of religious tourists for Hajj and Umrah.
Figure 1: KSA’s travel and tourism spending to rise
Source: WTCC, AlJazira Capital
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Business Travel & Tourism Spending Leisure Travel & Tourism Spending
SAR (
bn)
1.Global Travel Market Research firm PhoCusWright2. Saudi Commission for Tourism & Antiquities3. Saudi Commission for Tourism & Antiquities
Initiation | KSA | Transport Sector
4 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
United International Transportation Company Septemper 2013
Religious car rentals reflect seasonal growthDemand for car rentals for religious purposes tends to be seasonal, with Ramadan, the two Eids, and the summer holidays being the peak seasons. Demand for rental cars surges among Saudi and expatriate residents alike; according to market sources, car rental agencies witness 100% bookings. During peak seasons, car rental rates and prices go up 30–40%4 . Demand for car rentals is lower but not significantly lower during off-season. As the number of pilgrims for Hajj and Umrah is expected to rise to 13.7mn by 2019E from 7.7mn currently5 , demand for religious car rentals is also likely to rise.
Business rentals to be driven by rising demand for leasingStrong economic growth and increased business activities in the Kingdom are expected to result in international corporations and local businesses opening new offices, thereby boosting inbound travel. This is likely to drive demand for car rentals by corporations. Furthermore, the development of the concept of vehicle leasing in the domestic market is also expected to push rental agencies sales. Leasing involves car renting agencies renting their cars for periods that may extend from one year to four years for industrial and commercial use. The emergence of leasing in the Saudi market resulted in companies selling their fleet of cars or trucks and replacing them with rented vehicles. Thus, growth in business rental sales is expected to be led by economic expansion and higher leasing activities.
Competitive landscapeThe car rental industry is highly fragmented, with unorganized operators dominating the market. In 2009, the number of rent-a-car establishments increased to 513 from 444 in 20046.
ChallengesSaudi Arabia’s car rental services industry faces various challenges such as lack of parking space, lack of specialized labor, payment defaults and damage to vehicles, rise in cost of vehicles, and rising number of illegal car rental agencies.
• Car rental agencies’ lack of adequate parking space results in cars being parked on the roadsides, thereby causing traffic jams.• Difficulty of access to specialized labor for the maintenance of cars is a major challenge for car rental agencies.• Increases in the costs of imported cars, insurance costs, and prices of spare parts as well as other rising business costs impact the
profitability of car rental agencies.• The rising number of illegal car rental agencies raises competition in the already intensely competitive industry and limits price
increase.• Payment defaults by clients or not returning rental vehicles impact the revenues of car rental agencies.
4. According to Said Al-Bassami, Chairman of the Car Rentals Commission at the Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry5. PhoCusWright6. Tourism Information and Research Center 2010
In order to address these challenges, the Car Rentals Commission has proposed the formation of an association of car rental companies across Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the KSA’s Deputy Minister of Labor has assured that visas for foreign workers, including drivers, mechanics, cleaners, and electricians, would be issued to car rental firms to meet their requirement for specialized labor. Furthermore, the government is taking active steps to close down illegal car rental agencies—37 agencies were closed down by the East Dammam municipality, thereby easing traffic congestion.
Thus, car rental companies in Saudi Arabia are expected to witness strong growth, boosted by growth in the KSA’s travel market, increased tourist arrivals, and healthy growth in the Kingdom’s economy.
Initiation | KSA | Transport Sector
5 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
United International Transportation Company Septemper 2013
United International Transportation Company LtdCompany overview
United International Transportation Company Ltd (Budget) offers vehicle leasing and rental services under the name Budget Rent a Car in Saudi Arabia. The company’s services include domestic and international short-term rentals, long-term rentals, chauffeur service, limousine service, cross-border rentals, corporate program, pre-owned car sales, frequent renters loyalty program, and corporate leasing. Budget is one of the largest leasing and car rental players in the GCC region and is majority owned by the Zahid Group. The company operates through a network of more than 82 rental offices, and has a fleet of more than 21,000 vehicles as well as 14 workshops, eight airport rental offices, and 35 mobile workshops. Budget’s subsidiaries include Unitrans InfoTech Services, TranzLease Holdings India, and AlJozoor Alrasekha Transportation Company.
Strong domestic presence
Budget is the largest car rental operator in the Kingdom, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia7 . Given the company’s strong network of more than 82 rental offices, a fleet of more than 21,000 vehicles, 14 workshops, eight airport rental offices, and 35 mobile workshops, it benefits from a strong domestic presence. We expect Budget’s growth to be boosted by its strong network and service centers as well as robust brand recognition.
Aggressive expansion plans to drive growth
Budget has launched an aggressive growth plan, which involves expanding operations into South Asia. South Asia is witnessing strong growth in the automobile and automobile leasing sectors. Automobile leasing has been gaining prominence as the preferred method of vehicle procurement in South Asian nations, especially in the corporate sector. In 2012, Budget expanded its presence in India’s car renting and leasing industry by acquiring a minority stake in a car rental company in the country.
In May 2013, Budget acquired a 32.5% stake in TranzLease Holdings India Pvt. Ltd, an India-based auto leasing company, via capital infusion. According to Budget, India’s auto lease sector has been increasing at a CAGR of 65% over the last 10 years, led by strong growth in the corporate segment and rise in per capita incomes. Consequently, we believe the company’s revenues would be driven by its dominance in the domestic car rental and leasing market and its focus on geographical expansions to countries with high-growth potential. We expect Budget’s revenues to expand at a CAGR of 9.5%, led by 9.6% growth in rental income and 12.2% rise in leasing income over 2012–17E.
7. Zahid Group website
United International Transportation Company Ltd
Aljozoor Alrasekha Transportation Company Unitrans InfoTech Services TranzLease Holdings India
97.90% 65.00% 32.75%
Saudi Arabia India India
Initiation | KSA | Transport Sector
6 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
United International Transportation Company Septemper 2013
Figure 2: Revenue from Operations
Source: Company, AlJazira Capital
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
0.2 0.2
0.2 0.3
0.3 0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
SAR
bn
Operating Lease Rental
2009 2010 2011 2012
Expanding Fleet Size, and higher rental yield to support growth
The company’s fleet size currently stands at 21,602 units, as compared to 16,542 units in 2009, whereas the number of branches stood at 82 in 2012 as compared to 83 in 2009, as a result the car per branch improved from 199 units to 263 units in 2012. Going forwards we expect the fleet size to increase of 28,611units, depicting a CAGR of 5.8%.
The company’s per unit rental yield on rental improved from SAR 76/day in 2009 to 83.5/day in 2012, where per day rental yield improved from 61.1/day to 65.8/day. We expect the per unit rental yield to improve to 107.32/day and 84.7/day from rental and lease business respectively.
8608 8914 9522 9799 10297 10604 11077 11682 12303
7884 9288 9829 11803 13106 14056 14684 15486 16308
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Short term rental Long term rental
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E2009 2010 2011 2012 50
70
90
110
SAR/
DA
Y
Short term rental Long term rental
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E2009 2010 2011 2012
Figure 3: Fleet Size Figure 4: Rental Per Unit
Source: Company, AlJazira Capital Source: Company, AlJazira Capital
CAGR - 12.0% CAGR - 11.2%
Initiation | KSA | Transport Sector
7 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
United International Transportation Company Septemper 2013
Well-diversified revenues mitigate the impact of seasonalityHistorically, Budget has witnessed higher revenues in 2H due to the high-seasonality trend of Saudi Arabia’s car rental industry (on account of religion tourism). However, the share of car rental revenues in the company’s revenue declined to 51.3% in 2012 from 57.6% in 2009, while the share of revenues from car leasing improved to 48.7% from 42.4% during the same period. We believe with the rising share of revenues from car leasing, Budget is expected to witness stable growth rate during the year. With higher growth in the car leasing segment, we expect the share of revenues from car leasing to stand at 49% in over our forecast period, while share of car rental revenues is likely to decline to 51% over our forecast horizon.
Long-term leasing to drive top-line growth
The Company offers a diverse range of services including long term leasing, ‘Buses and commercial vehicles, trucks and heavy equipment’, short term rental, pre-owned car sales and cross border and corporate leasing services. In 2012, almost 49% of the total revenue is located in the Western region, and 51% in each of the Central and Eastern regions. The long-term leasing services contribute with 49% to revenues, with the remaining 51% being generated mainly from short--term rental services and sales. Going forward we expect the company to show improvement in long term lease revenues due to the following rationale.
h Religious tourism in the Western region.
h Strong construction activity is to support a long term leases to contracting clients.
h Industrial projects in the Eastern Province.
The company other revenue source is it gain on sales of its fleet, the company uses the vehicle for not more than 30 months after which it is sold. We expect the company to show a CAGR of 16.2%.
Figure 5: Operational Revenue Breakup
Source: Company, AlJazira Capital
46 % 51 %
54 % 49 %
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2009-2012 (Average) 2013-2017 (Average)
Long Term Short Term
Figure 6: Revenue
�
100
200
300
400
500
600
SAR
mn
Sales Long Term-Leasing Short Term rental
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Company, AlJazira Capital
Initiation | KSA | Transport Sector
8 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
United International Transportation Company Septemper 2013
Strong balance sheet to support expansionsBudget had a strong balance sheet with a comfortable debt-to-equity ratio of 70% in 2012. This is much below the peer average of 190%. Consequently, we believe that the company is well-placed in terms of raising funds for expansions compared with its peers. Moreover, the company’s interest cover of 14.4x in 2012 boosts the confidence in its ability to meet timely payments of interest expenses. We expect the company’s debt-to-equity ratio to remain low at an average of 30% over 2013E–16E, providing sufficient scope for borrowing funds for expansions. Furthermore, we expect Budget to become a zero-debt company by 2017E as we have not forecasted any major acquisitions.
Figure 7: Debt to equity to decline
Source: Company, AlJazira Capital
Figure 8: Leverage lower than peers
Source: Company, AlJazira Capital
Strong profitability to support expansionsBudget’s net income increased at a CAGR of 13.6% over 2009–12, while net margins expanded 90bps to 21.6% in 2012. Furthermore, the company’s return on average equity (RoAE) remained strong between 21–23% during 2009–12. Budget’s RoAE of 22.7% in 2012 was strong as compared to the peer average of 13.4%. We expect the company’s net income to expand at a CAGR of 14.9% over 2012–17E, with 548bps expansion in net margins. Budget’s RoAE is expected to remain strong at an average of 23.9% over 2013E–17E. Thus, Budget’s healthy profitability would provide further support to its aggressive expansion plans.
Figure 9: Profitability remains strong
Source: Company, AlJazira Capital
Figure 10: RoAE higher than peers
Source: Company, AlJazira Capital
5.0
20.0
35.0
50.0
65.0
80.0
95.0
110.0
0.0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Debt to Equity(%) Interest Cover(x)-RHS
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E2009 2010 2011 20122008
0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
1.7 1.9 2.1
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Budget (KSA) ORIX Leasing (Oman) Comprehensive Leasing (Jordan)
2009 2010 2011 2012
19.0%20.0%21.0%22.0%23.0%24.0%25.0%26.0%27.0%28.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
SAR
mn
Net Profit - LHS Net margins RoAE
2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E2009 2010 2011 2012
21.1% 21.9%20.6%
22.7%
11.8% 12.1% 12.6% 12.6%
14.1% 13.9% 14.4% 14.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Budget (KSA)ORIX Leasing (Oman)Comprehensive Leasing (Jordan)
Initiation | KSA | Transport Sector
9 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
United International Transportation Company Septemper 2013
Amount in SARmn, unless otherwise specified 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017eRevenue 508 582 660 728 798 882 986 % growth in Revenues 13% 15% 13% 10% 10% 11% 12%Cost of revenue 420 491 558 615 676 742 809 Gross Profit 89 91 102 113 122 140 177 % growth in Gross Profit 11% 3% 11% 11% 8% 15% 27%General and Admin expenses 45 58 60 66 72 80 91 Marketing expenses 7 9 9 10 11 13 14 Total operating expenses 52 67 69 76 84 93 105 Gain on sale of vehicles 75 112 132 153 175 203 237 Operating Profit 111 137 165 189 214 250 309 % growth in Operating Profit 7% 23% 20% 15% 13% 17% 24%Finance charges 9 9 10 7 5 3 - Other income - net 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Net Income before Zakat and Minority Interests 104 130 157 184 211 250 312 Zakat and Income tax 3 5 5 6 7 8 10 Net Income before Minority Interests 101 126 152 179 205 242 302 Net Income for the year 101 126 152 179 205 242 302 % growth in Net income 6% 25% 21% 17% 14% 18% 25%
Balance Sheet in SAR mn AssetsCash and Cash equivalents 27 17 20 36 29 40 68 Trade receivables, Net 95 73 95 101 116 129 144 Inventories 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 Pre-payments and other current assets 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 Total current assets 146 115 140 164 172 195 238 Investment in associates - 27 27 27 27 27 27 Property and Equipment, Net 850 1,003 1,133 1,124 1,143 1,193 1,236 Total non-current assets 850 1,030 1,160 1,152 1,170 1,220 1,263 Total assets 996 1,146 1,300 1,315 1,342 1,415 1,501
Liabilities and Equity Current portion of long term bank debts 224 251 293 220 143 79 - Accounts payable 123 81 113 123 133 146 155 Accrued expenses and other current liabilities 18 21 21 21 21 21 21 Accrued Zakat and income tax 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 Total current liabilities 369 357 432 368 302 250 181 Long-term bank debts 89 172 150 113 73 40 - Employees end of service benefits 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 Total non-current liabilities 109 195 174 136 97 64 23 Total Liabilities 479 552 605 504 398 314 204
Shareholders’ equityShare capital 183 244 305 305 305 305 305 Statuary reserve 51 64 74 86 99 115 134 Retained earnings 283 286 316 420 540 681 858 Total shareholders' equity 517 593 695 811 944 1,101 1,297 Total equity 517 594 695 811 944 1,101 1,297 Total Liabilities and Equity 996 1,146 1,300 1,315 1,342 1,415 1,501
Cash Flow in SAR mn Net cash provided by operating activities 360 343 420 453 491 549 606 Net cash used in investing activities (332) (403) (377) (257) (306) (354) (353)Net cash (used in) from financing activities (12) 50 (40) (181) (193) (185) (225)Increase in cash and cash equivalents 16 (10) 3 16 (7) 11 29 Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of the year 11 27 17 20 36 29 40 Cash and cash equivalents at end of the year 27 17 20 36 29 40 68
Source: Budget Company Report Al Jazira Research.
Key financial data
Initiation | KSA | Transport Sector
10 © All rights reserved
Please read Disclaimer on the back
United International Transportation Company Septemper 2013
Ratios 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e
Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio(x) 0.40 0.32 0.33 0.44 0.57 0.78 1.32
Quick Ratio (x) 0.38 0.31 0.31 0.43 0.55 0.75 1.29
Efficency Ratios
Receivables Days Turnover 73 66 68 66 69 69 69
Payables Days Turnover 75 76 74 73 72 72 70
Asset Turnover 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Profitability
ROE 19% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 23%
ROA 10% 11% 12% 14% 15% 17% 20%
ROIC 12% 12% 13% 16% 18% 20% 23%
Gross Margins 17% 16% 15% 15% 15% 16% 18%
EBITDA Margins 73% 81% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87%
EBIT Margins 22% 24% 25% 26% 27% 29% 32%
Net Margins 20% 22% 23% 25% 26% 27% 31%
Leverage Ratios
Debt/Equity 61% 71% 64% 41% 23% 11% 0%
Debt/Capital 38% 42% 39% 29% 19% 10% 0%
Debt/Assets 31% 37% 34% 25% 16% 8% 0%
Times Interest Earned 11.92 14.74 16.78 25.67 44.45 94.43 NA*
Valuations
Dividend Yield 8.3% 5.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
Book Value Per Share (BVPS) 28.3 24.3 22.8 26.6 30.9 36.1 42.5
Market Capitalization(in SAR Bn) 0.9 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Enterprise value (in SAR Bn) 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8
PE (x) 5.49 8.23 12.51 10.67 9.32 7.88 6.32
PB (x) 1.07 1.74 2.74 2.35 2.02 1.73 1.47
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.24 3.62 4.26 3.61 3.09 2.61 2.14
EPS 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.9 6.7 7.9 9.9
Source: Budget Company Report Al Jazira Research,
Key financial data
Initiation | KSA | Transport Sector
RESE
ARC
H D
IVIS
ION
RESE
ARC
H
DIV
ISIO
NRA
TIN
GTE
RMIN
OLO
GY
BRO
KERA
GE A
ND IN
VEST
MEN
T CE
NTER
S DI
VISI
ON
Disclaimer
AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business.
1. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.
2. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months.
3. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months.
4. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.
The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Aljazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Aljazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Aljazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in Aljazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report, however, The authors and/or their wives/children of this document may own securities in funds open to the public that invest in the securities mentioned in this document as part of a diversified portfolio over which they have no discretion. This report has been produced independently and separately by the Research Division at Aljazira Capital and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report before its publishing, except for those whom corporate positions allow them to do so, and/or third-party persons/institutions who signed a non-disclosure agreement with Aljazira Capital. Funds managed by Aljazira Capital and its subsidiaries for third parties may own the securities that are the subject of this document. Aljazira Capital or its subsidiaries may own securities in one or more of the aforementioned companies, and/or indirectly through funds managed by third parties. The Investment Banking division of Aljazira Capital maybe in the process of soliciting or executing fee earning mandates for companies that is either the subject of this document or is mentioned in this document. One or more of Aljazira Capital board members or executive managers could be also a board member or member of the executive management at the company or companies mentioned in this report, or their associated companies. No part of this report may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of Aljazira Capital. Persons who receive this report should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this report, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.
AGM - Head of ResearchAbdullah Alawi+966 2 [email protected]
Senior Analyst Syed Taimure Akhtar +966 2 6618271 [email protected]
Senior Analyst
Talha Nazar +966 2 [email protected]
Analyst
Saleh Al-Quati+966 2 [email protected]
Analyst
Jassim Al-Jubran +966 2 [email protected]
General Manager - Brokerage DivisionAla’a Al-Yousef+966 1 [email protected]
AGM-Head of international
and institutional brokerageLuay Jawad Al-Motawa +966 1 [email protected]
Regional Manager - West and South Regions
Abdullah Al-Misbahi+966 2 [email protected]
Sales And Investment Centers Central Region
Manger
Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa +966 1 [email protected]
Area Manager - Qassim & Eastern Province
Abdullah Al-Rahit+966 6 [email protected]
Asset Management Brokerage Corporate Finance Custody Advisory
Head Office: Madinah Road, Mosadia، P.O. Box: 6277, Jeddah 21442, Saudi Arabia، Tel: 02 6692669 - Fax: 02 669 7761
Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), license No. 07076-37