Monthly Market Wrap

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Economic Overview 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

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4-Wk Moving Average of Initial Claims (000s), SA

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Unemployment Rate

August saw the US economy continue to recover from the second quarter’s Covid-19 induced economic pause, with most data pointing to a quicker than anticipated bounce back in many sectors of the country. Unemployment remained stubbornly high as pundits debated whether increased jobless benefits were the culprit.

July’s unemployment rate came in at 10.2%, down from June’s 11.1% and beating economist expectations for 10.6%. Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.2% MoM and are now up 4.8% YoY while the Labor Force Participation Rate held steady at 61.4%. The JOLTS Job Openings number came in stronger than expected at 5.889M, up markedly from June. As mentioned above, Congress had passed legislation offering an additional $600 per week of unemployment benefits, resulting in many workers earning more by staying home. As we go to press, this extra benefit had been reduced to $400 per week, potentially bringing more back into the workforce.

Housing remains an anomaly here during the pandemic, holding up strongly in many areas of the country. Housing Starts for July surged 22.6% MoM while Building Permits rose 18.8% and Existing Home Sales soared 24.7% above June. Home prices as measured by the S&P CoreLogic CS 20 City index were flat MoM but remain up 3.46% YoY. Larger urban areas continue to see weakness as residents migrate to suburbs and less dense communities. Whether this trend continues post-vaccine remains to be seen but for now, price weakness in major cities like NYC, San Francisco and Boston is creating opportunity for those bold enough to swim against the tide.

The shock to the US and global economies from Covid-19 continues to be felt on a daily basis. Until a vaccine can be widely distributed and embraced, it’s likely that the travel and leisure sectors will continue to suffer as social distancing remains the norm. The good news is that it appears a viable vaccine is in the offing with something possibly available by year-end resulting in potentially a swift turnaround in that space.

September 1, 2020

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2017 2018 2019

Consumer Confidence LHS vs. Home Prices RHS

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2017 2018 2019

PPI & CPI YOY % ChangeData Point Current For Previous For

Retail Sales ex. Autos MOM % 1.9% July 8.3% June

Housing Starts 1496K July 1220K June

Factory Orders MOM % 6.2% June 7.7% May

Leading Indicators MOM % 1.4% July 3.0% June

Unit Labor Costs 5.1% Q1 2020 2.2% Q4 2019

GDP QOQ (Annualized) -31.7% Q2 2020 -5.0% Q1 2020

Wholesale Inventories -0.1% July -1.3% June

MBA Mortgage Applications -6.5% August -5.1% July

Key Data Points

Monthly Market Wrap

DOMESTIC EQUITY

Domestic Equity 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

S&P 500 Index 7.19% 13.23% 9.74% 21.92% 14.49% 14.43%

S&P 400 Mid Cap Index 3.51% 8.29% -5.55% 4.21% 5.36% 8.09%

S&P 600 Small Cap Index 3.99% 8.26% -11.08% -0.58% 3.76% 7.40%

S&P 500/Citi Growth Index 9.57% 17.24% 26.52% 37.44% 21.42% 18.95%

S&P 500/Citi Value Index 3.58% 7.37% -9.30% 3.43% 6.14% 8.73%

Domestic Equity ReturnsSector MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year %S&P 500

Consumer Discretionary 9.52% 19.38% 28.01% 34.88% 22.28% 17.73% 12.12%

Consumer Staples 4.74% 12.03% 5.69% 11.26% 9.26% 9.83% 7.58%

Energy -1.02% -6.09% -39.28% -33.53% -13.45% -8.09% 2.24%

Financials 4.29% 8.22% -17.37% -4.51% 2.71% 7.89% 9.21%

Healthcare 2.67% 8.19% 7.32% 22.54% 12.25% 11.05% 13.63%

Industrials 8.62% 13.34% -3.25% 5.15% 6.14% 10.57% 8.01%

Information Technology 12.01% 18.30% 35.99% 57.93% 30.72% 28.30% 28.27%

Materials 4.42% 11.80% 4.07% 14.20% 6.97% 10.17% 2.45%

Real Estate 0.05% 4.04% -4.84% -4.45% 6.90% 8.05% 2.53%

Communication Services* 9.06% 16.47% 16.12% 27.10% 13.05% 11.25% 11.26%

Utilities -2.65% 4.96% -6.73% -2.03% 6.13% 10.70% 2.71%*The S&P 500 Communciation Services Sector was reclassifed from the Telecommunications Sector on September 21st, 2018

S&P 500 Sector Returns

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Domestic Equity Market P/E Ratios

10 Year Average

-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%

MTD S&P 500 Sector Returns

September 1, 2020

U.S. equities surged in August, with the benchmark S&P 500 Index gaining for the 5th straight month, rising +7.2% to close at 3,500. Stocks currently sit at record high levels as economic data continues to improve and coronavirus cases slow. Last week the U.S. posted the lowest number of confirmed cases since June, at 34,000 according to Johns Hopkins. With U.S. elections a mere two months away, equity markets remain somewhat complacent, continuing to grind higher thanks to mega-cap Technology companies such as Apple. Interestingly, volatility rose along with the broad market in August, with the CBOE VIX Index jumping +8.0% to 26.4 on the month. While volatility remains down -13.2% QTD, it is up +80.4% on the year.

Small- and Mid-Cap stocks rose in tandem with Large-Caps, with the benchmark S&P 600 and 400 Indices gaining +4.0% and +3.5%, respectively on the month. Both measures of smaller companies remain firmly in the red YTD, down -11.1% and -5.6%, respectively, compared to the S&P 500’s +9.7% gain.

Apple’s 4-1 stock split helped the stock gain +21.7% on the month, propelling the Technology sector +12.0% on the month. Technology is up +36.0% YTD, after gaining more than +50% in 2019. Consumer Discretionary stocks rose +9.5% on the month, helped by a +9.1% gain in Amazon, while Communication Services rose +9.1% thanks to +15.6% and 9.5% gains by Facebook and Alphabet, respectively. For comparison, the NASDAQ, which all are members of, has returned +31% YTD.

The Fed’s shift in monetary policy and lower for even longer pledge helped buoy Growth stocks relative to Value stocks, a continuation of a trend that continues to leave investors mystified. Growth stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Citi Growth Index rose +9.6% on the month, compared to +3.6% for the S&P 500 Citi Value Index. The Growth vs. Value performance gap continues to widen, hitting more than 34% over the past 1-year, and more than 10% annualized over the past 5-years. Clearly, investor appetite for Growth in an ultra low rate environment has persisted, and shows no signs of abating as investors look further out into the post-COVID-19 world.

Monthly Market Wrap

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY

International Equity 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

Sector MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year %ACWIEnergy 2.96% 3.64% -29.54% -20.63% -4.67% 1.46% 9.43%Healthcare 1.48% 3.70% 10.30% 24.59% 11.53% 6.09% 6.60%Utilities -1.66% 5.07% -4.31% 1.18% 5.40% 8.26% 5.50%Information Technology 0.82% 11.83% 15.17% 38.68% 13.53% 19.26% 9.95%Materials 4.81% 13.61% 3.68% 17.47% 4.34% 10.30% 6.95%Financials 4.92% 7.03% -17.55% -6.43% -4.62% 1.56% 17.53%Consumer Discretionary 10.50% 16.82% 6.41% 20.66% 6.39% 7.29% 12.64%Communication Services* 2.33% 6.81% 8.40% 16.36% 2.67% 2.89% 7.58%Real Estate** 5.11% 6.27% -16.68% -8.94% -2.69% N/A 2.97%Industrials 8.51% 10.93% -3.57% 8.75% 3.48% 7.06% 10.45%Consumer Staples 1.01% 6.03% -0.05% 1.72% 3.27% 5.98% 10.40%*The M SCI ACWI Ex. USA Real Estate Sector was developed on August 31st, 2016

MSCI ACWI Ex U.S. Sector Returns

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MTD MSCI ACWI Sector Returns

0102030405060708090

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International Equity Market P/E Ratios

10 Year Average

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

MSCI ACWI Index (USD) 6.16% 11.82% 5.14% 17.15% 9.58% 10.83%

MSCI EAFE Index (USD) 5.18% 7.66% -4.20% 6.71% 2.93% 5.32%

MSCI EM Index (USD) 2.24% 11.45% 0.67% 14.85% 3.18% 9.06%

FTSE 100 Index (GBP) 1.76% -2.51% -18.87% -14.25% -3.28% 3.11%

Nikkei 225 Index (JPY) 6.64% 3.88% -1.00% 14.15% 7.79% 6.23%

Hang Seng Index (HKD) 2.54% 4.08% -8.27% 1.25% -0.08% 6.87%

Shanghai Composite Index (CNY) 2.70% 14.99% 13.83% 20.45% 2.77% 3.46%

MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index (USD) 4.31% 9.01% -2.68% 8.86% 3.17% 6.32%

MSCI EMU Index (EUR) 3.54% 2.17% -10.02% -1.86% 1.41% 4.05%

International Equity Returns

September 1, 2020

International equities posted positive gains in August with both developed and emerging markets following US markets higher. Developed Markets (DM), as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, rose +5.2% on the month, but remain down -4.2% YTD. Emerging Markets (EM), as measured by the MSCI EM Index, on the other hand trailed DM on the month, rising +2.2%, but remain in positive territory YTD with a +0.7% gain. International returns have favored EM over DM over the trailing 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods, with EM returning +14.9%, +3.2%, and +9.1%, respectively on an annualized basis.

Within DM, the Eurozone, as measured by the MSCI EMU Index, has been stuck in no man’s land for the past 5-years (and perhaps longer), returning -1.9%, +1.4%, and +4.1% annualized over the trailing 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods. While the Eurozone has struggled economically, and lagged in terms of investor returns, the tide may be turning. New policies enacted as part of coronavirus relief have buoyed the Euro to multi-year highs versus the Dollar, which could be sewing seeds of optimism for the rest of 2020 and beyond.

From a sector standpoint, international growth remains elusive, as Technology represents less than 10% of MSCI ACWI ex USA. Consumer Discretionary was the top performing sector on the month, gaining more than +10%, while Technology returned a scant +0.8%; however, Technology returns have been relatively impressive over the past 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods, returning +38.7%, +13.5%, and +19.3%, respectively on an annualized basis.

Lastly, in perhaps a sea change of sorts, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway invested more than $6 Billion in 5 Japanese investment companies, highlighting how one of the greatest investors of all-time views international markets on a go forward basis.

Monthly Market Wrap

FIXED INCOME

Fixed Income 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

Bloomberg Barclays US Government Index -1.06% 0.04% 8.65% 6.91% 5.12% 3.88%

Bloomberg Barclays US Agg Index -0.81% 0.67% 6.85% 6.47% 5.09% 4.32%

Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index -1.38% 1.83% 6.94% 7.50% 6.44% 6.19%

Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index 0.95% 5.68% 1.67% 4.71% 4.88% 6.44%

Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Agg Index 0.54% 3.68% 3.24% 5.44% 4.66% 6.18%

Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg Treasuries USD Index -0.95% -0.16% 4.14% 2.28% 4.77% 4.23%

Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Index -0.47% 1.21% 3.31% 3.24% 4.09% 3.99%

Fixed Income Returns

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Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS)

US Corporate Master (LHS)US High Yield Master II (RHS)

The Federal Reserve held their annual Jackson Hole conference, where Chairman Jerome Powell announced some changes, tweaks really, that came out of the Fed’s recent policy review.

The modification that seemed to get the most attention was shifting from a target of 2% inflation, to an average inflation target of 2%. Big change? Not exactly. It allows the Fed to look at 2% inflation as a long-term goal which can undershoot and overshoot for periods of time without necessarily requiring intervention. This attempts to slow how quickly the Federal Reserve will move to cool off a hot economy for fear of rising inflationary pressures.

A second modification was made, with a similar intent to allow the economy to run hot and slow Federal Reserve intervention. Conventional economic thinking has been that a strong labor market (very low unemployment) would fuel inflation as represented in the Phillips Curve. This expectation has allowed the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and try to dampen economic expansion as a pre-emptive attempt to head off inflationary pressures. Historically, the Fed could justify acting when they felt the level of employment had deviated from its maximum level. So, if employment were below its maximum level, the Fed could attempt to increase employment. Also, if employment exceeded its maximum level, the Fed would act to slow the economy and decrease employment to reduce inflationary pressures. Going forward, the Fed will only concern itself with shortfalls from maximum employment. This means there will no longer be Fed intervention with a goal of reducing employment (increasing unemployment).

During the month, interest rates moved higher while remaining within the range that has been experienced since March of this year. The increase in interest rates was a headwind for most of the fixed income universe. With rates relatively low on investment grade bonds, it does not take much of an increase in yields (decrease in price) to offset the income earned by the bond, producing a flat or negative return.

High Yield and Emerging Market bonds did have a positive showing in August, due to their higher coupon payments more than offsetting the rise in rates. While they have provided an attractive one-month return, the year-to-date returns continue to trail higher quality fixed income holdings.

So far, the winning strategy for pandemic fueled fixed income investing remains long duration investment grade bonds.

Name Current 1 Month Ago6 Months Ago 1 Year Ago

Fed Funds Rate 0.25% 0.25% 1.75% 2.25%

Bank of Japan Target Rate 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

European Central Bank Rate 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Bank of England Base Rate 0.10% 0.10% 0.75% 0.75%

Central Bank Activity

Period 3 Month 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 30 Year

Current 0.12% 0.14% 0.29% 0.70% 1.21% 1.48%

1 Month Ago 0.12% 0.12% 0.23% 0.53% 0.95% 1.20%

6 Months Ago 1.39% 0.90% 0.94% 1.14% 1.47% 1.66%

1 Year Ago 2.03% 1.52% 1.41% 1.51% 1.79% 1.96%

U.S. Treasury Yields

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Treasury Yield Curve

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6 Months Ago

September 1, 2020

Monthly Market Wrap

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Alternative Investments 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

Dollar -1.29% -5.73% -4.75% -6.85% -0.57% -0.57%

BCOM 6.75% 12.83% -9.36% -4.79% -13.40% -19.37%

Gold -0.41% 11.62% 31.02% 29.43% 48.92% 73.39%

WTI 5.04% 7.53% -55.67% -50.49% -43.32% -65.04%

FTSENAREIT 0.14% 3.96% -9.87% -8.05% 13.14% 44.47%

Commodities

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FTSE NAREIT All REIT's

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Crude Oil Spot (WTI Cushing)

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Gold Spot

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Bloomberg Commodity Index

Description Current 1 Mth Ago3 Mths Ago6 Mths Ago1 Year Ago

CAD / USD 1.30 1.34 1.36 1.34 1.33

JPY / USD 105.82 105.83 107.59 107.42 106.09

USD / GBP 1.35 1.31 1.25 1.28 1.22

USD / EUR 1.20 1.18 1.11 1.10 1.10

Spot Rates

Alternative investments were a mixed bag in August with U.S. Dollar weakness propelling most commodities, as the DXY Index lost -1.3% on the month, and is now down -4.4% YTD and -6.9% over the past one year period. After peaking in 2016, the Dollar is now down -9.9% and may have more weakness ahead as interest rates remain low and budget deficits widen.

The Dollar’s weakness helped commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodities Index, edge up +6.8%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil gained +5.8%, or more than $2/barrel, to close just shy of $43/barrel, the highest monthly close in six months.

Real Estate returns were tepid in August, with the FTSE NAREIT All REIT Index gaining just +0.2%, and remain down -13.6% on the year. Within the Real Estate market, Cell Towers, Data Centers, and Logistics Warehouses for e-commerce have been standout winners, while much else has been left behind.

Gold prices lost $8/ounce, or -0.4% on the month to close at $1,968/ounce in August. Gold prices have been on a tear since the beginning of the year, gaining nearly +30%, but have consolidated gains recently as prices crossed the psychological $2,000/ounce level. Looking forward, a lower for longer interest rate environment, coupled with inflation targeting above the Fed’s prior 2% threshold should continue to be supportive of the shiny metal.

On the currency front, the Euro closed at $1.20 EUR/USD, a multi-year high, while the Pound and Loonie strengthened to $1.35 USD/GBP and $1.30 CAD/USD as the Dollar remains under pressure. Appreciating foreign currencies have the potential to add a third element (besides price and dividends/interest) to US based investors investing in Dollars overseas. Moving forward, continued Dollar weakness could be additive to total returns and increase investor confidence in their capital allocation decisions.

Lastly, all nine Hedge Fund strategies tracked posted positive returns on average; however, year to date returns range from -5.11% to +8.67%, highlighting the struggles of a low interest rate environment.

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 YearGlobal Hedge 1.42% 2.79% 1.68% 4.76% 1.70% 1.73%Convertible Arbitrage 2.81% 5.56% 8.67% 11.26% 5.01% 4.73%Equity Hedge (L/S) 2.58% 3.43% -3.09% 0.34% 0.55% 1.10%Equity Market Neutral 0.62% -1.16% -6.11% -5.14% -3.85% -2.37%Event Driven 1.55% 2.46% 4.11% 10.95% 0.60% 2.84%Macro 0.10% 1.88% 1.14% -0.15% 1.37% 0.22%Merger Arbitrage 0.07% 1.01% -1.02% 1.13% -0.59% 1.44%Relative Value Arbitrage 1.04% 3.09% 4.22% 6.25% 3.55% 1.95%Absolute Return 0.44% 1.39% 0.07% 2.06% 1.57% 1.60%Note: Price Return, Returns as of 8/28/20

Hedge Funds

September 1, 2020

Monthly Market Wrap

ESG

ESG 716-633-3800 : nottinghamadvisors.com

ESG funds continued to perform well relative to their non-ESG counterparts over the past month. The MSCI USA Extended ESG Focus Index outperformed the MSCI USA Index by 12 bps for the month and by over 100 bps YTD. Likewise, the MSCI EAFE ESG Focused Index returned 8 bps more than the MSCI EAFE Index for the month and has outperformed YTD as well. The MSCI EM ESG Focused Index lagged the MSCI EM Index over the past month but remains an outperformer YTD and over the past 12 months.

In addition to the continued strong performance of ESG as a factor, fund flows indicate that ESG has staying power as an investment factor. Although most equity ETFs and mutual funds have seen net outflows YTD, ESG/sustainable funds have seen substantial inflows.

According to the Global Sustainable Fund Flows report from Morningstar, ESG fund assets have rebounded since the market selloff and have hit a record high of over $1 Trillion in assets. The global sustainable fund universe attracted $71.1 billion in net inflows in Q2 2020 and there were also 125 new ESG fund offerings launched during the quarter.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

MSCI USA Extended ESG Focus GR less MSCI USA Index

ESG US Relative Performance

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

MSCI EAFE Extended ESG Focus NR less MSCI EAFE Index

ESG EAFE Relative Performance

-0.2%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%

MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 YearMSCI EM Extended ESG Focus NR

less MSCI EM Index

ESG EM Relative Performance

Name MTD QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

S&P 500 Index 7.19% 13.23% 9.74% 21.92% 14.49% 14.43%

MSCI USA GR Index 7.51% 13.89% 11.42% 23.76% 15.04% 14.64%

MSCI USA Extended ESG Focus GR Index 7.63% 13.96% 12.74% 26.02% 15.77% 15.20%

MSCI EAFE Index 5.18% 7.66% -4.20% 6.71% 2.93% 5.32%

MSCI EAFE Extended ESG Focus NR Index 5.26% 7.83% -4.15% 7.18% 2.96% 5.25%

MSCI EM Index 2.24% 11.45% 0.67% 14.85% 3.18% 9.06%

MSCI EM Extended ESG Focus NR Index 2.13% 11.98% 1.25% 15.50% 3.52% 10.02%

Bloomberg Barclays MSCI US Corp 1-5 Yr ESG Focus TR Index 0.24% 1.06% 4.53% 5.55% 4.07% 3.61%

Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index -1.38% 1.83% 6.94% 7.50% 6.44% 6.19%

Bloomberg Barclays MSCI US Corp ESG Focus TR Index -1.42% 1.84% 7.53% 8.14% 6.61% 6.28%

S&P Green Bond Select Index -0.51% 0.84% 3.52% 1.07% N/A N/A

ESG Index Returns vs Ordinary Index Returns

Source: Morningstar Direct. Data as of 6/30/2020

Sustainable Fund Flows

September 1, 2020

If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact any

member of our investment team:

Tom Quealy, Chief Executive Officer – tom.quealy@nottinghamadvisors.com Larry Whistler, CFA, President/Chief Investment Officer – larry.whistler@nottinghamadvisors.com Nick Verbanic, CFP® V.P./Portfolio Manager – nick.verbanic@nottinghamadvisors.com Matthew Krajna, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager, Director of Equity Research –matthew.krajna@nottinghamadvisors.com

Tim Calkins, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager, Director of Fixed Income – timothy.calkins@nottinghamadvisors.comNick DiRienzo, CFA, Director of Operations – nicholas.dirienzo@nottinghamadvisors.comMike Skrzypczyk, Senior Trader/Associate Portfolio Manager – michael.skrzypczyk@nottinghamadvisors.comAngila Snediker, Trading Associate – angila.snediker@nottinghamadvisors.com

Nottingham Advisors, Inc. (“Nottingham”) is an SEC registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of New York. Nottingham and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration requirements imposed upon registered investment advisers by those states in which Nottingham maintains clients. Nottingham may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. This material is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to Nottingham’s investment advisory/management services. Any subsequent, directcommunication by Nottingham with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides.

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The indices referenced in the Nottingham Monthly Market Wrap are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. The returns ofthese indices do not reflect any investment management fees or transaction expenses. Had these additional fees and expenses beenreflected, the returns of these indices would have been lower. Information herein has been obtained from third party sources that are believed to be reliable; however, the accuracy of the data is not guaranteed by Nottingham Advisors. The content of this report is as current as of the date indicated and is subject to change without notice.

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