UNDERSTANDING URBAN FLOOD RISK …pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/846781461321094367/042216-DRM...URBAN FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC TOKYO, APRIL 22, 2016 Manila, July
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UNDERSTANDING URBAN FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN EAST ASIA AND THE PACIFIC TOKYO, APRIL 22, 2016 Manila, July 2013
Urban flooding poses a developmentchallenge globally and in Asia
GLOBALLYIn the last decade,
water-related hazards caused 60%of total economic
losses in last decade (EM-DAT)
GLOBALLYFlooding is the biggest risk to urban dwellersaround the world (Swiss Re, 2013)
ASIABetween 1995-2015,2,495 weather-related disasters struck Asia, affecting 3.7 billion people and killing a
further 332,000 individuals, which is more than any other
region (EM-DAT)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Swiss Re: Mind the gap (2013): Most of the world’s major cities developed along the sea and natural waterways such as lakes and rivers. Many are situated on river flood plains or near river deltas. Almost all large metropolitan areas are therefore exposed to some risk of flooding. The threat from river flooding is particularly high for cities in India and China Leaving aside the effects of climate change, the population living in flood-prone areas is estimated to be 1.3 billion by 2050, or 15% of the global population. This is an increase of 0.3 billion compared with the current situation (2010). Source: See page 9 in following publication�- Ligtvoet W. et al. (2014), Towards a world of cities in 2050 – an outlook on water-related challenges. Background report to the UN-Habitat Global Report, The Hague: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Report enclosed in this email – or available at this link: http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/PBL_2014_Towards%20a%20world%20of%20cities%20in%202050_1325_0.pdf In terms of the impact, while it is encouraging, that immediate loss of life from flooding is increasing more slowly or even decreasing over time, reflecting the successful implementation of flood risk management ensures, fatalities still remain high in developing countries where flood events have a disproportionate impact on the poor and socially disadvantaged, particularly women and children. The number of people affected by floods, financial, economic and insured damages are increasing. (Indirect and often long-term effects, such as disease, reduced nutrition and education opportunities, and loss of livelihoods, can also erode community resilience and other development goals, as does the need to constantly cope with regular, more minor, flooding. Such indirect impacts can be hard to identify immediately and harder still to quantify and value. However, the poor and disadvantaged usually suffer the most from flood risk.)
An increasingly urbanized Asia = disaster hotspots = people and asset @risk?
World Bank. 2015 East Asia’s Changing Urban Landscape: Measuring a Decade of Spatial Growth
Annual Rate of Urban Expansion by Country 2000-2010
FuturePopulation living in
flood-prone areas to reach 1.3 billion by
2050, or 15% of global population (UN-Habitat 2014)
TodayAlready today, Asia is the most disaster-stricken region in
the world
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Disasters are just the tip of the iceberg, demonstrating the nature of (unmanaged or badly managed) development. The current pace of urbanization is outrunning the pace of risk reduction measures. This trend is set to continue unless disaster and climate risk management becomes part of urban planning and governance. In the past two decades, developing countries have urbanized rapidly, with the number of people living in urban settlements rising from about 1.5 billion in 1990 to 3.6 billion (more than half of the world’s population) in 2011. In 2050, the share is expected to be 2/3 or about 6 billion people (United Nations World Population Prospects 2011). EAP is the fastest urbanizing region. EAP also has by far the largest urban population (950 million), nearly double that of SAR. In Asia, from 1980 to 2010, cities added over 1 billion people to their population, and another billion will live in cities by 2040 (UN 2011). The process of urbanization creates many opportunities for the old and incoming dwellers. For example, “urbanization has helped reduce poverty through the creation of new income opportunities, and has increased both access to and quality of services”. World Bank. (2013c). Global Monitoring Report 2013. However, the combination of rapid and unplanned urbanization, makes urban flooding more dangerous and more costly to manage in the short-medium term – because of the sheer size of the population exposed within urban settlements. Exposure to cyclones and earthquakes in large cities rises from 680 million people in 2000 to 1.5 billion people by 2050. Source: Brecht and others, 2010. IBRD 37875.
Cities in East Asia and the Pacific are at particular risk to sea level rise and storm surges
Fuchs “Cities at Risk: Asia’s Coastal Cities in an Age of Climate Change. 2010, adopted from Un-Habitat 2008.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Exposure in Asian cities is already very high and likely to increase as a result of climate change IPCC” highlights: "The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions". This means that to be resilient, cities and regions, and the land areas from which they source the water and their food, need to be far more water efficient and to implement strategies to manage excessive rainfall. For those cities vulnerable to sea level rise the report says that "under all scenarios this rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971-2010".�Over the next 80 years the rise could be between 40cm and 63cm (3ft6"-5ft). Together with predicted storm surges this guarantees increased flooding unless action is taken.�Oceans will acidify as they uptake carbon from the atmosphere, affecting marine sources of food.�"Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of carbon dioxide are stopped," http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf The concentrations of population, industry, infrastructure, and economic activities in cities contribute to increased exposure and susceptibility to natural hazards. 1.5 percent of the world’s land is estimated to produce 50 percent of worldwide gross domestic product (GDP). The same area accommodates about one sixth of the world’s population (World Bank 2009). A recent study quantifying the present and future flood losses in the 136 largest coastal cities estimates that by 2050, these cities will experience flood losses in the amount of US$52 billion (Hallegatte et al 2013). In 2005, these 136 cities encountered flood losses of approximately US$6 billion per year (Hallegatte et al 2013). Another study reports that more than 80 percent of all losses resulting from disasters reported in Latin America were in urban areas (Hardoy 2013).
Urban poor and vulnerable are disproportionally affected
26-30%Urban population living in slums in
Indonesia, Thailand, China
40-45%Urban population living in slums in
Myanmar, the Philippines, Vietnam
as much as 79%Urban population living in slums in
Cambodia, Lao PDR(UN-Habitat, 2010)
Presenter
Presentation Notes
In the face of these challenges, there are concrete steps decision-makers can take. Integrated Flood Risk Management – is a forward looking approach, which aims to avoid the mistakes of the past, making urban growth a positive force for development. Integrated Flood Risk Management is part of the integrated water resources management, strategy gaining on prominence at the WB and at other organizations. The recently published report “Cities and Flooding” funded by GFDRR and developed in coordination with WMO, JICA, offers technical advise and practice guidance on implementation of IUFRM. The Guide (copies of the summary are at the back of the room), offers 12 guiding principles – I will focus on three - but my colleagues will discuss further ones in their presentations.
Opportunities & Examples
1. Risk Identification
2. Risk Reduction
3. Emergency Preparedness
4. Financial Resilience
5. Sustainable Recovery and Reconstruction
Mainstreaming disaster risk management into development
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Guiding principle in mainstreaming DRM into development: reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability, manage residual risk and uncertainties, and strengthen institutions in the capacity to prepare and respond to disasters. Assisting our clients through lending, grants, technical assistance, capacity building, just-in-time support, etc. Large diversity of EAP countries: Middle-income countries: Innovative risk financing instruments (Cat-DDO Philippines), Building urban resilience program (Manila critical infrastructure retrofitting), and integrated flood protection (Manila Master Plan) with structural (engineered) and non-structural solutions. Low-income countries: Supporting hydromet and early warning systems in the Mekong region (Laos, Vietnam); addressing rapid urbanization through better planning and investments: Comprehensive Resilience Plan for Can Tho. In the Pacific, we focus on, technical assistance for risk identification, e.g. through PCRAFI, capacity building, and linking DRM and CCA in development investments. Given the complexity and different needs, we work with a range of partners – e.g. GFDRR, JICA, ASEAN (Myanmar PDNA, or ASEAN Risk Financing), SPC/SOPAC (PCRAFI), AusAID, ADB, ADPC, ADRC, AIFDR, AusAID, JAXA, NEMA, EU/EC, UNISDR, WMO, and others.
Investing to strengthen flood resilience of cities
Between 2012 and 2015, the WBG has financed 23 projects (US$3.4 billion) supporting countries in urban flood risk management
822.97542.5
863.131144.5
1442
FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY16
ACTIVE PIPELINE
WB Operations With Urban Flood Risk Management Focus Since
2012 – Overall Size (US$ million)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY16
Active Pipeline
WB operations with Urban Flood Risk Management focus since 2012
– by Region (US$ million)
SAR LAC EAP AFR
So far for this fiscal year 2016, 10 projects totaling up to US$1.4 billion are being prepared by the World Bank.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Implementation Mode There is increasing recognition that solutions to development challenges rest with knowledge as much as with financial interventions. Bringing together different stakeholders, Communities of Practice (COPs) have potential to provide a new paradigm for development work, offering practical and efficient space for both face-to-face and online knowledge-exchange and collective learning across different regions, understanding emerging issues and developing new solutions and approaches. C4D: To access information about the latest developments in managing urban flood risks and facilitate adaptation to local conditions
Major clients with lending operations in flood risk management
76 percent of WB support focuses currently on Bangladesh, China,Nigeria, India, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Poland, Indonesia and Argentina
WBG flood risk management operations by commitment in US$ million
WBG flood risk management operations by number of projects
Keep the water away from the people
Keeping the people away from the water
Hard engineered• Flood conveyance• Flood storage• Urban drainage systems• Ground water management• Flood resilient building design• Flood defenses
Emergency planning & management• Early warning systems and evacuation• Critical infrastructure
Speeding up recovery• Building back safer• Risk insurance
Get the “right” balance between structural and non-structural measures
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Structural measures (hard engineered/eco system management measures) keep the water away from the people. This is done through the use of flood defenses buffers/using wetlands. Are seen as less flexible, but flexibility can sometimes be incorporated, such as in the installation of wider foundations for flood defenses so that they can be raised later without strengthening the base. The purchase of temporary flood defense barriers can also be seen as a flexible alternative as they can be deployed when and where necessary, as flood risks change. Non-structural measures (awareness campaigns, EWS, risk insurance) aim to keep the people away from the water [often has large co-benefits] They tend to be inherently flexible, e.g. early warning systems, forecasting and evacuation plans; and improved solid waste management systems. Structural and non-structural measures do not preclude each other. Most successful strategies combine both types, striking the right balance between them. Traditionally, cities have focused on flood defense strategies using only “hard” mitigation measures (also called “grey” measures) – to keep the water out. With climate change increasing the frequency and the intensity of flood events around the world, limitations of approaches using only “hard measures” become more evident. Levees, drainage channels and flood barriers are often not adapted or made adaptable to changing conditions, such as increased rainwater run-off or sea level rise. In order to increase the resilience of cities, officials must find appropriately balanced approaches suitable for their contexts. They should choose urban flood risk management measures that are integrated with their natural environments and maximize the benefits of eco-systems, while recognizing that levees and drainage channels cannot be excluded from the options, as they play key roles in flood damage reduction. A combination of measures should be chosen based on the comprehensive review of options and study of their effects, costs, environmental impacts, and feasibility, among other factors
The Philippines: Greater Metro Manila Flood Risk Management Plan
Metro Manila Flooding Typhoon Ondoy (26 Sep 2009)
• Flood protection• Solutions for urban drainage
Structural measures
• Flood forecasting, EWS• Community based FRM
Non-structural measures
Technical Assistance
• Resettlement and housing• Flood modeling• Community of Practice
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Picture: Metro Manila Flooding Typhoon Ondoy (26 Sep 2009) Metro Manila Flood Plan and subsequent follow-up TA on FRM, resettlement and housing as an Urban+DRM JICA a key partner, bringing: experience in MM flood risk management, technical support, steering committee guidance, peer reviews
• Key information needed Types and causes of flooding Probabilities Occurrence
• Invest in producing and making widely accessible risk data!
Flood hazard maps are visual tools for communication the hazard situation in an area
Flood forecasting is an essential tool to provide people exposed to risk advance notice of flooding in an effort to save lives and property
Understand the flood hazard causes and the impact
Presenter
Presentation Notes
While it is impossible to entirely eliminate the risk from flooding, the right metrics, realistic simulation games, good risk data and data visualization tools aid to better understand the existing and future risks.
Risk Info & Tools: OpenDRI – Community Engagement and Support for Decision Making
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Risk Info and Tools along capacity-building is in high demand. There are business opportunities for Scaling up – Sharing across EAP. Indonesia's capital, Jakarta, is prone to natural disasters such as floods and fires. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction & Recovery and the Jakarta Disaster Management Agency held a competition to gather ideas on how information technology can be used in disaster situations Hanoi, 09/05/2014 - The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the World Bank, in collaboration with HATCH! PROGRAM, a leading entrepreneur community and social incubator in Vietnam, will host the global event: “Hackathon Code For Resilience” in Vietnam, with support from the Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.��With the slogan “Code For Vietnam, Hackathon Code For Resilience” aims to challenge local computer programmers, active environmentalist and global disaster risk management experts to come up with innovative software and hardware, addressing environment and disaster risk management issues such as flood, storm, typhoon, earthquake, etc. in Vietnam and in the world.��The Hackathon Code For Resilience takes place in 3 days, from May 09 to11, 2014, at the Department of Information and Communication Building, no. 1, Hoang Dao Thuy, Thanh Xuan, Hanoi. Deadline for individual or team (from 3 to 5 members) registration was May 06, 2014. At the hackathon, participants will have exactly 48 hours to work on their creative solutions.��Hackathon is a popular event, in which computer programmers and participants work together intensively in a short period of time to innovate or create software projects. In Vietnam, Hackathon aims to inspire and encourage participants to renovate the existing technology products or to create innovative applications to support social needs. Hackathon Code For Resilience is not an exception, but it uses a different approach. This event not only emphasizes the importance of technical assistance but also connect technology and environmental expert in addressing natural hazards resilience, including but not limited to risk identification, risk reduction and recovery.��Ms. Keiko Saito, World Bank Disaster Risk Management Specialist and the representative the Global Hackathon Code For Resilience organizing committeesaid: “Disaster risk management integration with the Hackathon is an opportunity to engage the local technology experts in developing technology solutions that are locally applicable and address emerging issues, which might have not received a lot of interest before.”��Vietnam ranked 26th in top countries that are vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters, according to Maplecroft Index 2013, a global disaster evaluation consulting firm in England. Thus, Code For Resilience - Code for Vietnam 2014 is highly acclaimed for integrating modern technology in solving social issues, as well as its connecting technology and environment experts.��On the first day, May 09, there is a 30-minute workshop, conducted by representatives from Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, on the disaster risk management and policies to forecast and respond to the natural disasters. Then, individual participants and team (from 3 to 5 members) do the pitch to create their dream team to work on a proposed software project for the next 48 coding hours, with the support from disaster risk management experts and hackathon mentors.��The Hackathon Code For Resilience takes place in Vietnam and nine other countries across Asia. The top 3 outstanding products will be submitted to the International Competition “Online Innovation Challenge, and gain an opportunity to join the 2014 Understanding Risk Conference in London (England) this July sponsored by the Organizing Committee.
Robustness to climate change uncertainties
Source: Ranger and Garbett-Shiels, 2011, LSE
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Climate change can have a compounding effect on existing flood risk, for example, by augmenting sea level rise, changing rainfall patters, and an increase in storm surges. The science between the linkages between CC and extreme weather events is still not conclusive. Research by Roger Pielke of Colorado, Kerry Emanuel of MIT and many others have shown that, if you normalize for asset and population growth, there is absolutely no climate change signal in damages from extreme weather events for the foreseeable future. PCC SREX Report "long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change" ttp://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-All_FINAL.pdf p.26. The IPCC SREX report reflected the scientific literature on the state of attribution with respect to extreme events --for events such as floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, bushfires and on other topics there remain enormous uncertainties. A new paper is forthcoming in the journal Climatic Change in 2012 helps to shed some additional light on such claims. The new paper -- titled "A Trend Analysis of Normalized Insured Damage from Natural Disasters" by Fabian Barthel and Eric Neumayer of the London School of Economics concludes based on its examination of weather-related losses from the Munich Re global dataset from 1980 to 2008 (emphasis added): [At a global scale] no significant trend is discernible. Similarly, we do not find a significant trend if we constrain our analysis to non-geophysical disasters in developed countries . This implies that people and asset growth in harm's way will be, by far, the biggest driver of deaths and damages from extreme weather events for the foreseeable future. Growing population and prosperity means that more people and wealth are exposed to risks and larger losses.
Low-regret solutions: Early warning systems & hydromet services
• Technical upgrades• Network Integration• Legal and Institutional arrangements• Linking services with end-users
Hydromet Systems, Weather Monitoring, EWS
Regional Forecasting and EWS
• WMO cooperation• Technical capacity-building
• Vietnam • Lao PDR• Myanmar • Pacific Islands
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Multi-hazard Monitoring and Emergency Systems including hydrometeorological services, early warning systems, last-mile communication, connectivity and data sharing, use of new ICT. Opportunities in Mekong region and Pacific (also via regional DRM project)
Sustainable solutions: integrated water resources management and urban planning
o Risk-based land use planning: guide development out of harm’s way
o Resilient redevelopment: Community-driven slum upgrading programs in Vietnam, and Indonesia have reached millions of beneficiaries
o Greening of urban spaces has amenity value, enhances biodiversity, protects against urban heat island and can provide fire breaks, urban food production and evacuation space
o Integrated water resources management: water conservation and water quality, improved drainage, ecological and natural approaches
Vietnam Urban Upgrading Project (2004-2014)
improving living and environmental conditions of the urban poor in 4
large cities in Vietnam through participatory methods
Presenter
Presentation Notes
VIETNAM: The Vietnam Urban Upgrading Project (2004-2014) is designed to help alleviate poverty by improving the living and environmental conditions of the urban poor in 4 large cities in Vietnam through participatory methods. As of early 2014, upgrading of 295 low-income neighborhoods has directly benefited over 2.5 million low-income residents and indirectly 5 million more. INDONESIA: KDP - PNPM-Urban (National Program for Community Empowerment) has been a successful community driven development program which delivers block grants to the urban poor. The program has nationwide coverage, and had 22.3 million beneficiaries as of 2011.
Key Take-aways: Learning from Japan
Reflections
• Institutional and legal – importance of clearly defined structures and responsibilities
• Interagency coordination and information/data flow, operational procedures; system approach
• Integration of structural and non-structural measures
• Land-use planning – multi-purpose usage of FRM infrastructure
• Public and private stakeholder engagement
• Technical excellence –engineering solutions and training
• Attention to O&M
• Consideration of multiple hazards
• Continuous improvement/upgrading based on the current knowledge and predictions
Importance of Sharing Technical Knowledge & Practical Experience
Thank you!
Jolanta Kryspin-WatsonEast Asia and Pacific RegionDRM Coordinator, Lead DRM Specialistjkryspin(at)worldbank.org www.worldbank.org/eapdisasters
To join and get more information on the Urban Floods Community of Practice, email [email protected]
