Understanding Risk to Investments

Anoma PannalaDirector, Ministry of Irrigation and Water

Resource Management, Sri Lanka1

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87% of Sri Lankan population lives in hotspots

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Recurrent climate-induced disasters pressure national economy

Annual Average Disaster Loss: US$ 380 million

Disasters Affected population Estimated impacts

2017 Floods 879,778 US$ 470 M

2016 Floods 493,319 US$ 720 M

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Comprehensive Climate and Disaster Resilience Program

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Major Challenge

• Critical two river basins completed (Kelaniand Mundeni Aru)

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Mundeni Aru

Analytical works informing

US$ 3 billion+ investment plans

• 9 basins to be completed by May 2019

→ Being prepared as a new project financed by WB and AIIB

→ Ready for financing by the national budget and/or development partners

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Flood and Drought Modeling

Integrated Flood and Drought Risk Assessment

Identification of Flood Risk Reduction measures

PFS for integrated Flood & Drought reduction

measures

FS for prioritized measures for Implementing

Development of Computational

FrameworkModeling for Investment Plans

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Modeling

Platform for SWAT

GIS Data Processing and Analysis

Data Processing and Analysis

Rating Conceptualization, Flood Analysis

Detailed/2D Flood Analysis

Rainfall Runoff Modeling

Water Demand Allocation

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Flood Modeling for Kelani8.29

3.18

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Wa

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r L

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el (m

At G

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Date

Maximum Water Level from 1960 to 2016 (m)

0

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200

500

1000

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3500

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

/hr)

Flo

w (

cum

ecs

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Event Analysis: Flow and rainfall

Hourly Rainfall (mm) Observed Flow (m3/s) Flow (m3/s) - Natural SWAT model Flow (m3/s) - Natural SWAT model with major reservoirs

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Proposed Structural Measures for Kelani

Embankments for lower stream (1:50 year)

Upstream reservoirs

NON STRUCTURAL MEASURES

• Prepare an integrated flood risk management plan

• Establish a real-time monitoring and operation system

• Improve operation of existing reservoirs

• Improve the drainage systems

• Land use planning

Proposed Non-Structural Measures

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Lessons from Sri Lanka

❖ MoF’s engagement is critical to allocate budgets

❖ Instruments like DPL with Cat DDO and Fiscal Risk

Assessment ensures MoF engagement

❖ Sustainability through full-time, on-the-job engagement

of Government staff

❖ Breaking data barriers and multi-agency collaboration

Climate Change Adaptation for Sustainability

Thank you very much foryour attention