understanding global energy
TRANSCRIPT
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Understanding Global
Energy
This presentation will change
the way you think about our
global energy problem
GlobalQBTU.com
This presentation was taken from The Global Energy Handbook, available through
Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble and other sources
Where Energy Really GoesAutos and EnergyHousehold EnergyElectricity GenerationAlternative SourcesEver-Increasing DemandEnergy vs. Consumer Spending
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Energy from a Global Perspective
This presentation is unlike any you have ever seen on energy. We take off
the rose-colored glasses, we look at energy from a pragmatic and globalperspective to give you a basic and essential understanding of:
Where energy comes from and how it is used
Why the demand for energy is always increasing
Why conservation and efficiency are not solving the problem
When reading about energy do you askbut what does this really mean?
Then you should find this presentation to be useful
This presentation will change the way youthink about our global energy situation
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Some Questions Addressed Here
The answers to these questions will surprise you,they are not what you would normally think
3
Can energy be described in a more simple and consistent way?
What is the difference between energy production and energyconsumption?
Where is most energy actually consumed?
How much energy is used by households and autos?
How much have energy costs really increased?
What if everyone drove a fuel-efficient car or switched tofluorescent bulbs?
How much can solar and wind really do for us?
Why is the demand for energy always increasing?
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Why cant energy be explained in
simple, consistent terms? It can . . .
Are You Confused About Energy?
32 Billion barrels of oil yearly!
1.7 Billion gallons of gasoline daily!
67 EJoules of electricity yearly!
6.5 Billion short tons of coal yearly!
370 Gigawatts of nuclear power!
9 Gigawatts of solar power!
etc., etc. !
A chart used to explain energy (DoE /EIA/Sandia)
No wonder; the way energy information is presented has us allconfused, it might as well be written in a foreign language
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The BTU is a relatively small amount of energy; a can
of soda contains about 150 Calories or 600 BTU
Global energy is measured in quadrillion BTU or QBTU*
The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) uses QBTU
The only thing you will need to keep in mind is:
Millions > Billions > Trillions > Quadrillions*
106 > 109 > 1012 > 1015
The BTU Approach to Global Energy
Global energy production is approaching500 QBTU per year
The BTU approach allows you to see the wholeglobal energy picture, not just pieces of it
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Total energy produced is referred toas Prime Source Energy or PSE
Global Energy Production in QBTU
Oil 189 QBTU
Gasoline 75 QBTU
Electricity 64 QBTU
Coal 130 QBTU
Nuclear 28 QBTU
Solar 0.02 QBTU
Here is the energy data
given earlier, but now in
consistent QBTU terms
Here are the prime
sources of global energy
Note the relatively small percentage
of alternative energy sources
0
50
100
150
200
250
QBTU
Global Prime Source Energy QBTU per Year
500 QBTU
87% Fossil
1.6% Alternatives
5.5% ea.
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
QBTU
Figure 2-6: World Prime Source Energy Growth (from EIA Fig 10)
Where wehave been
Where we seem
to be going
2.0 % YearlyGrowth
470 QBTU
How Fast is Global Energy Use Increasing?
500 QBTU
The answer: very fast
(More about this later)
220 QBTU
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500 Q
End-use energy consumption is only 74%of total global energy production
LostEnergy*
Q
B
T
U
307 Q
193 Q
Gasoline, diesel,fuel oil, natural gas,coal, biofuels, etc.
ElectricityGeneration
DirectlyUsed
Energy Production and End-Use Consumption
ConsumedElectricity
129 Q
64 Q
372 Q
Total EnergyProduction
ElectricityGeneration
EndUseConsumption
307 Q
64 Q
Direct-UseConsumption
ElectricityConsumption
Energy production and end-use consumption are not thesame thing; these often get confused in media reporting
* Energy conversion, reserves, transmission losses
Total End-UseConsumption
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To Electricity
Generation
Delivered
Electricity
193 Q
The Significance of Electricity Losses
Consider this next time you look at your electricitybill or read something about electric cars
Q
BT
U
129 QLost
64 QEnd-Use
Consumption
Energy Conversion,Reserve andTransmissionLosses
For every kilowatt-hour of electricity used, three
kilowatt-hours of energy are required to produce it!
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Industrial Transport Residential Commercial
Q
BT
U
Where Global Energy Goes
4 Q
246 Q
103 Q
93 Q
58 Q
Energy losses
129 QBTU
59 Q 37 Q28 Q
The industrial and commercial sectorsuse the lions share of global energy
Global energy users are divided into four majorsectors; industrial, transportation, residentialand commercial
500 QBTU Total
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Home
Heating
Air
Condition
Appliances
Plus*
Home
Lighting
32 Q9 Q
27 Q6 Q
500 Q
All Global
Energy
Residential Energy
Households use only 19% of all global energy(11% for electricity, 8% for heating fuel)
Water
Heating
Clothes
Dryer
13 Q 5 Q
Q
B
T
U
Residential
Sector
93 Q
55 Q Electricity - 11%
25 Q Natural Gas 5%
11 Q Fuel Oil 2.2%
2 Q Biofuel 0.4%
18%
92 QBTU total 19% of global energy
* kitchen appliances, electronics, indoor and outdoor tools,
yard equipment and anything else that plugs-in
Households are the main focus of all of those how to
save energy tips we see daily; but how much energy
do households really use?
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Electricity
Generation
Residential
Electricity
Residential
Lighting
193 Q
55 Q 7 Q(1.4%)
500 Q
All Global
Energy
Electricity Flow-Down
Residential lighting accounts for only1.4% of all global energy production
Q
B
TU
Home lighting is 10 to 15% of residential energy,but how much is this in terms of global energy?
11%
surprised?
39%
To answer this we must turn the telescopearound and look at entire flow-down ofglobal energy, not just home lighting
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What you dont see directly:
Typical familys share of all
energy used in the U.S.
What you see directly:Utilities and gasoline bills
U.S Overall Energy Consumption
We consume three to four time moreenergy than we think we do
In millions of BTU (MBTU)
Everything else:Consumer goods andservicesGovernmentEducationHealthFoodClothingEntertainmentTraveletc.
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0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Dollarper
Kwthr
2008 Adjusted
Dollars
Then Year
Dollars
Figure 5-7: Electricity Rates - Inflation Adjusted
energy data tables>inflat
They havent; electricity rates have generally
been coming down since 1980
Electricity Rate History
How much have electricity rates increased, relativeto inflation, over the past three decades?
2
0
10
2010
surprised?
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All Fossil Oil Transport Gasoline Motor Vehicles
436 Q
189 Q
97 Q76 Q
61 Q
500 Q
All Energy
Petroleum Energy Flow-Down
Motor vehicles use only 12% of allglobal energy production
Q
B
T
U
Yes, we use a lot of gasoline, but the real
question is; how much global energy isactually used by motor vehicles*?
* cars and light trucks
12%
surprised again?
To answer this we must turn the telescopearound and look at the entire global energyflow-down, not just at gasoline use
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The cost of gasoline is now back to theEnergy Crises peak of the early 1980s
Gasoline Cost: Inflation Adjusted
2010 Adjusted Dollars
The cost of gasoline has increased drastically over the pastseveral years, but how does this compare with historical costs?
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0.00E+00
5.00E+03
1.00E+04
1.50E+04
2.00E+04
2.50E+04
Gasoline Lithium-ion
advanced
Lithiun-ion
typical
Ni Metal
Hydride
Lead
Acid
BTUperLb
Figure 6-3b: Energy Content for Battery Types Compared to Gasoline
ev battery chain>auto
Energy Storage: Batteries vs. Gasoline
The specific energy of even our most advancedbattery is still far below that of gasoline
Think about this the
next time you read
something about
electric vehicles
GAS
BATTERY
We hear a lot about advanced technology batteries,but how much have batteries really improved?
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Yes, costs are coming down for solar and wind, but
Solar and wind can only produce electricity
They are only part-time workers
There is no viable way (yet) for mass storing their energy
Because of these inherent limitations, solar andwind can only be supplemental energy sources
What can solar and wind energy do for us?
at least until massive storage
capability becomes a reality
Solar and Wind Energy?
Electricity generation requires about 40% of global energyproductionAssuming (optimistically) that solar and wind combined work atleast 40% of the time, then by simple math;
40% x 40% equals 16% of our global energy needs
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Growing biofuels requires large amounts of farmland
which otherwise could be used to grow food
Relatively large amounts of energy are required for production;(60% of the energy in ethanol is fossil fuel based*)
Biofuels can only be a supplementalsource of global energy
What can biofuels realistically do for us?
Cellulosic plant sources grown on marginal land and low-energyproduction techniques (termites, algae, bacteria, etc.) to producebiofuels remain a future possibility, but until then . . .
* Official USDA output/input production ratio of 1.67
(disputed by many as being too high)
Biofuels?
Costs are coming down, but
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Energy Savings Initiatives: Looking Back
We are now using energy 2 to 3 more efficiently, butconsumption continues on its relentless rise
Since the early 1970s great strides have been made in
conservation, efficiency and public awareness of energy
Auto mpg has doubled
More efficient appliances
Building codes revised
Clean Air Act initiated
Recycling becomes routine
Earth Day & Earth Summit
Drive less, car pool
Lower our thermostats
Use fluorescent bulbs
Get energy-eff. windows
Buy a fuel-efficient car
Use a clothes line etc.
500 QBTU
2010
220 QBTU
1970
720 QBTU
2030
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Energy Demand Keeps Growing Because . . .
Energy does not hold still while we try to fix it
Nearly two billion people still do not have electricity
Several billion others would like to own an automobile
Billions more would like to have bigger, better homes
Everyone would like to become big-time consumers like us
Can we blame them?
Yes, the worlds population is increasing, but the demand for
energy from those of us already here is increasing even faster
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Most energy use is considered necessary and useful,
at least by those using it
Most energy savings initiatives focus on our cars and homes, i.e.personal solutions
Personal Solutions Are Not Working
Global energy demand is increasing at 2.0% yearlydespite all of our emphasis on Personal Savings
Do you know of anyone who thinks they waste energy?
But most energy is consumed in the Industrial and Commercial Sectors
(i.e., on the goods and services we buy)
Conservation and improved efficiency have not
translated into reduced energy consumption
Personal energy savings, although helping, are not solvingtheglobal energy problem
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What if every household in the worldswitched from incandescent bulbs to
fluorescent light bulbs?
Global energy consumption would be
reduced by 3.5 QBTU or 0.7%
Some What-If Examplesfrom the Global Energy Handbook
What if every family in the world reduced
their household electricity use by 10%?
Global energy consumption would bereduced by 5.5 QBTU or1.1%
With the demand for global energy increasing at 2.0%yearly, savings like these are quickly washed away
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Today there are over 800 million
cars in the world
Looking at gasoline savings alone doesnot give the whole energy picture
Some What-If Examplesfrom the Global Energy Handbook
What if average auto fuel-efficiency went
from todays 22 mpg to 44 mpg by 2030
2010 2020 2030
Q
B
T
UIf mileage rose
to 44 mpg avg.
If mileage stayed
at 22 mpg avg.
500 Q
720 Q
680 Q
Unfortunately, global energy consumption would
not be reduced, only slowed down slightly
The other uses of energy (non-auto)
will continue to grow, regardless
By then (2030) there will be nearly
two billion cars in the world
It will take about 20 years for the
world fleet to reach 44 mpg avg.
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Near-Term vs. Long-Term Solutions
In discussions on energy many will say not to worry;
everything will be run using renewable energy sources
solar and wind with mass storage capability; biofuels grownon arid land; platforms in space beaming down energy andnuclear fusion.Do not deny the possibility of these, just point that they arefar-term solutions, hopefully for our grand children or their
grand children, they are not near-term solutions
In most discussions on global energy the first casualtyis the distinction between near and far-term solutions
The global energy perspective given here is for the near-term;
the next 30 years or so when diminishing fossil-fuel suppliescombine with the dire predicted effects of greenhouse emissions
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Energy Consumption vs. Consumer Spending
At the same time we are also bombarded to consume
more: designer clothes, the latest high-tech gadgets, fast
foods, new and better cars
Unfortunately, energy consumption and consumerspending are two sides of the same coin
Energy consumption is bad
Consumer spending is good
a least in the way our globaleconomy is currently structured
Energy and spending are treated as
two separate things in the media:
We are constantly bombarded with pleas to save energy:drive less, turn down the heater, shut off the computer, usefluorescent bulbs, install energy-efficient appliances
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What Do You Think?
If you like the way global energy ispresented here go to
gloalqbtu.com
To contact the author with
questions or comments go [email protected]
You now should have a better understanding of global energy
You should see why conservation and improved efficiencyhave not been able to reduce the demand for energy
You should see why the solution goes far beyond thecommercial and political slogans we hear daily
And freely pass this on to anyone else that may be interested
This presentation was taken from The Global Energy Handbook, available throughAmazon.com, Barnes & Noble, Robertson Publishing and other sources
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GlobalQBTU.com
This presentation was taken from The Global Energy Handbook,available through Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble, Robertson Publishing
and other sources