uncertainty over fiscal policy

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  • 8/10/2019 Uncertainty over fiscal policy

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  • 8/10/2019 Uncertainty over fiscal policy

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    The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analysts personal views. No part of the analysts compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or

    views. This report is intended for the private use of the institutional investor to whom it was sent.

    The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are those of BMO Capital Markets GKST Inc. (BMO) as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. BMO endeavors to

    ensure that the contents herein have been compiled or derived from sources that we believe are reliable and contain information and opinions which are accurate and complete. However, BMO makes

    no representation or warranty, express or implied in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss

    (whether direct or consequential) arising from any use of or reliance on this report or its contents. Information may be available to BMO, which is not reflected herein. This report is not to be construed

    as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

    BMO, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees will buy from or sell to customers the securities of any issuers mentioned herein on a principal basis. BMO usually makes a

    market in the securities and actively trades these securities for its customers and as principal for its own account. BMO may act as financial advisor and/or underwriter for the issuers mentioned herein

    and may receive remuneration for same. BMO is a subsidiary of BMO Financial Corp., which is a subsidiary of the Bank of Montreal. BMO is affiliated with BMO Bancorp, Inc

    Monday 21-Jan Tuesday 22-Jan Wednesday 23-Jan Thursday 24-Jan Friday 25-Jan

    Actual Consensus Estimate, Source: Bloomberg, Friday 1/18/2013

    Leading Indicators

    Key Economic Releases

    BMO Capital Markets Economic Calendar

    US Initial Jobless Claims (000), SA Conference Board US Leading Index MoM

    Initial Jobless Claims

    11.7 15.2

    -20-100

    1020

    12/28 01/04 01/11 01/18

    MBA Mortgage Apps

    Key Economic Release

    335355

    280320360400

    12/28 01/04 01/11 01/18

    Initial Claims

    3214 3200

    3000310032003300

    12/21 12/28 01/04 01/11

    Continuing Claims

    3957

    4564

    0200040006000

    12/28 01/04 01/11 01/18

    MBA Mortgage Refi

    5.0 5.0

    -10-50

    510

    Oct Nov Dec Jan

    Richmond Fed

    5.05.1

    4.44.64.85.05.2

    Sep Oct Nov Dec

    Existing Home Sales

    (0.2)

    0.4

    -0.30.00.30.6

    Sep Oct Nov Dec

    Leading Indicators

    377 385

    340360380400

    Sep Oct Nov Dec

    New Home Sales

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    700

    Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

    -4.0

    -3.0

    -2.0

    -1.0

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12