UK Population Trends in the Last 10

Years

Ann Berrington

ESRC Centre for Population Change

University of Southampton, UK

Experian Launch Event, 1st April 2014, London

Overview

1. Key trends in UK population

A growing population

An ageing population

An increasingly diverse population

Changing family structures

2. Trends in Living Alone

What are the drivers of the increase in living alone?

Typologies of people living alone in mid-life

3. The Boomerang Generation

How has the societal context changed?

Which young adults are more likely to be living with their parent(s)?

4. Implications of Demographic Change

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1. Key trends in UK population

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The drivers of population change

The size, composition and distribution of a population are determined by fertility, mortality and migration

Pt2 = Pt1 + B - D + I - E Where:

Pt2 Population at time t2

Pt1 Population at time t1

B Births

D Deaths

I In-migration

E Out-migration

Over the past two decades UK population has grown due

to both natural increase and net migration

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Source: Cangiano (2014) The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/impact-migration-uk-population-growth

Future growth in UK population will come from both

natural increase and net migration

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Source: Cangiano (2014) The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth.

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/impact-migration-uk-population-growth

An ageing population

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UK Age, sex pyramid 2014 (line) & 2034 (shaded)

Source: ONS, 2012-based,

population projection

The size of population

aged 90+ will triple, 2014-

2034

Post WW2 baby boomers in 2014

1960s baby boomers in 2014

The 1960s baby boomers

will have retired by 2034

An increasingly diverse population

Growth in ethnic minority group population, Eng & Wales

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Source: ESRC Centre on Dynamics of Ethnicity (CoDE) (2012) Briefing Paper: Dynamics of

Diversity: Evidence from the 2011 Census. http://www.ethnicity.ac.uk/

Note : No Mixed category in 1991. No Arab category in 1991 and 2001.

Changing Family Structures

• Decline in marriage, increase in

cohabitation

• Postponement of family formation,

increased childlessness

• Partnership turnover and complex family

structures

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Decline in marriage, increase in cohabitation

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Source: Beaujouan, E. and Ní Bhrolcháin, M. (2011) Cohabitation and marriage in Britain since the 1970s,

Population Trends 145: 35-59. http://www.palgrave-journals.com/pt/journal/v145/n1/pdf/pt201116a.pdf

Postponement of childbearing / increased

childlessness

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Source: ONS (2013) Cohort Fertility, England and Wales, 2012

Percentage of women who remain childless, Eng & Wales

Increased partnership dissolution

12 Source: ONS, 2011 Census

% households that are

lone parent households

2. Trends in Living Alone

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The chances of men living alone have declined at

young ages but increased in mid-life

Source: Demey et al’s analysis of GHS/GLS

1985-2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

16-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465-74 75+

2000

2005

2008

Percentage men living in one person HH

by age, Britain 2000-2008 The Drivers of Living Alone

At younger ages: increased cost of

renting / buying separate residence;

benefit changes; greater

experience of HE

In middle age: Increase in living

alone, especially for men due to

increased partnership dissolution,

plus significant minority men who

never partner

See: Demey, D., Berrington, A., Evandrou,

M. and Falkingham, J. (2011) The changing

demography of mid-life, from the 1980s to

the 2000s. Population Trends, 145, 16-34.

http://www.palgrave-

journals.com/pt/journal/v145/n1/abs/pt2011

15a.html

Partnership trajectories into living alone

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Males Females Males Females Males Females

35-44 45-54 55-64

Never partnered Ever cohabited but never married Ever married

Source: Demey, D., Berrington, A., Evandrou, M. and Falkingham, J. (2013) Pathways into living

alone in mid-life: diversity and policy implications. Advances in Life Course Research, 18, (3),

161-174. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104026081300004X

Distribution of those currently living alone, according to age and

partnership history. UK men and women aged 35-64.

The socio-economic characteristics of those living

alone differ by age & partnership history

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Never Ever Never Ever Never Ever

35-44 45-54 55-64

Higher education Some qualifications No qualifications

Educational distribution of UK men aged 35-64 living alone,

according to age and whether ever had a co-residential partner.

Source: Demey, D., Berrington, A., Evandrou, M. and Falkingham, J. (2013) Pathways into living

alone in mid-life: diversity and policy implications. Advances in Life Course Research, 18, (3), 161-

174. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104026081300004X

3. The “Boomerang Generation”

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Changing context of young adults’ household

formation

• Increased enrolment in Higher Education, especially

among females

• Youth unemployment and economic precariousness for

those in work

• Decreasing availability and affordability of housing

• Welfare retrenchment

• Increased international migration

See: Berrington, A. and Stone, J. (2013) Outlining a Future Research Agenda

for Studies of Young Adults' Transitions to Residential Independence, CPC

Working Paper 38,

http://www.cpc.ac.uk/publications/cpc_working_papers.php

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Increase in co-residence of UK young adults

living with their parent(s)

Males Females

Source: Authors’ analysis of LFS, Oct-Dec quarter, 2008 and 2012

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Percentage living with parent(s), 1998, 2008 and 2012

Source: Berrington, A. and Stone, J. (Forthcoming 2014) ‘Young adults’ transitions to residential

independence in Britain: the role of social and housing policy’, In: Hamilton, M., Antonucci, L. & Roberts,

S. (eds.) Young People and Social Policy in Europe. Palgrave Macmillan.

Factors associated with returning home

• Longitudinal analyses following up young adults

• Turning points in the life course associated with

“boomeranging” to parental home

– Experiencing a partnership dissolution,

• Especially for men

– Finishing full time studies

• Both men and women

See Stone, J., Berrington, A. and Falkingham, J. (2013) Gender, turning-points and

boomerangs: returning home in the UK. Demography, 50, (5), 1 – 20.

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13524-013-0247-8#page-1

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Summary of household formation trends in

young adulthood

• Decreasing headship rates due to postponement of

leaving / more returning to the parental home and the

postponement of partnership formation

• As young adults increasingly leave home for reasons

other than family formation they are more likely to return

home

• As a result of increased HE enrolment young women

have become more like young men in their leaving and

returning home behaviour

• At older ages (e.g. early 30s) remaining living with

parents associated with economic precariousness

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4. Implications of Demographic Change

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Implications of Demographic Change (1)

• Growth, diversity population – New, expanding opportunities

• Ageing of the baby boomers – But, increased economic dependency young adults

– Obligations for caring

– Future elderly may have less kin availability

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Implications of Demographic Change (2)

• Young adults boomeranging, renting – Choice or constraint?

– Implications for spending

• Heterogeneity in groups living alone – A higher proportion of high flyers, especially at young

ages

– Disadvantaged (men especially) face less positive

future as reach old age

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Questions?

Please contact:

Ann Berrington

ESRC Centre for Population Change

University of Southampton

Email: a.berrington@soton.ac.uk

Website: http://www.cpc.ac.uk/

Twitter: @CPC_population

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Acknowledgements

This research is funded by ESRC Grant numbers RES-625-28-0001 and

ES/K003453/1. The Centre for Population Change is a joint initiative between

the University of Southampton and a consortium of Scottish Universities in

partnership with ONS and NRS. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions

expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors and should not be

attributed in any manner to ONS or NRS.

The General Household Survey/General Lifestyle Survey and the Labour Force

Survey are carried out by the Office for National Statistics. Analyses were

made with the assistance of Juliet Stone, Peter Tammes and Deiter Demey.

Understanding Society is carried out by the Institute for Social and Economic

Research at the University of Essex. Access to all data is provided by the UK

Data Archive. The original data creators, depositors or copyright holders, the

funders of the Data Collections (if different) and the UK Data Archive bear no

responsibility for their further analysis or interpretation.

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