uk climate projections
DESCRIPTION
Presentation on the UK Climate Projections by Daniel Barwick of Defra. This was delivered at the UK Climate Projections third sector event on the 28 July 2009 at Defra's Innovation Centre in Reading.TRANSCRIPT
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UK Climate Projections 2009
Daniel BarwickDefra
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Overview
• Context – Government plan on climate change
• UKCP09: what are they?
• UKCP09: the future for the UK
• Impacts and Action
• The Government programme on adapting to
climate change
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www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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UK Projections part of five point plan on climate change Protect the economy, people and
the environment from immediate risk
Preparing for the future – Projections are key to this
Limit further dangerous change - achieve international agreement at Copenhagen in December
Seize opportunities for UK and build a low carbon economy
Help individuals, communities and businesses to play their part
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www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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What are the Projections?
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Produced by Met Office
A range of futures – 3 emission scenarios up to 2099
Probabilities – not a weather forecast
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Maps of the UK for:
Temperature
Rainfall
Sea level
on a 25 x 25 km grid
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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What emissions scenario are they based on?
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IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low
World Stabilisation Scenario
GHG IncreaseGtCO2e
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Temp RisedegC
Global Average Temperatures
Where we are headingWhere we are heading
IPCC Emission Scenarios
High Medium Low
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation What emissions scenario are they based on?
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What are they based on?
Where we need to beWhere we need to be
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Temp RisedegC
Global Average Temperatures
Some change is certain
Some change is certain
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Summer average temperature
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3 to 4ºCincrease
4 to 5ºCincrease
2 to 3ºCincrease
South-East England central estimate
Medium emissions
But we could see 5 times the number of very hot days & the hottest day of the year could be up to 10ºC higher
Unlikely to be less than 2.00C or greater than 6.40C for SE 2080s
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Summer Temperatures in context
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Source Met Office Hadley Centre
Observed temperatures
Simulated temperatures
2040s
2060s
2003We are already committed to this from past emissions alone
We are already committed to this from past emissions alone
35 000 people died across Northern Europe in the August heat-wave of 2003 – effective planning is essential
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Summer rainfall
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20 to 30%decrease
30% to 40%decrease
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10% to 20%decrease
South Westcentral estimate
Medium emissions
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Winter rainfall
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10% to 20%increase
20% to 30%increase 11
0% to 10%decrease
North West central estimate
Medium Emissions
But the wettest day of the year could see up to 31% more rainfall in the North
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Sea level rise – London
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High++ scenario: 2100
Rises up to 1.9 meters
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Central Estimate Worst Case www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Our approach to dealing with impacts is about managing risk across the economy, it is not a ‘green’ issue
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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What are we doing already?
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What are the opportunities?
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www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Government programme on adapting to climate change
Departmental Adaptation
plans
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Adaptation Reporting Power
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• Key sectors to report on the impacts to them of climate change
• Primary lever for Govt
• Consultation happening now
Current Vulnerability to Climate Change
Responsible for National Infrastructure
No Existing
Comprehensive Regulation Relating to Adaptation
EnergyWaterElectronic communicationsEmergenciesHealth & social careTransportEnvironment
EnergyWaterElectronic communicationsEmergenciesHealth & social careTransportEnvironment
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Key messages
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The costs of failing to adapt will be high
Global deal at Copenhagen is critical
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