user-focused climate projections & research
TRANSCRIPT
User-focused climate projections & research
John M Clarke 25th September 2015
Outline
• Background to currently available climate change projections • Difficulties • Relevance
• Two case studies • Projections for Pacific island developing nations • Projections for Australia
Using Climate Projections
• Projections are usually presented in very technical ways • Hard to interpret maps • Complex graphs
It can be difficult to obtain and understand projections of climate change
Using Climate Projections
• Projections are usually presented in very technical ways • Hard to interpret maps • Complex graphs
• Often focussed on very large areas • Global • Continental
It can be difficult to obtain and understand projections of climate change
Using Climate Projections
• Projections are usually presented in very technical ways • Hard to interpret maps • Complex graphs
• Often focussed on very large areas • Global • Continental
It can be difficult to obtain and understand projections of climate change
Using Climate Projections
• Projections are usually presented in very technical ways • Hard to interpret maps • Complex graphs
• Often focussed on very large areas • Global • Continental
It can be difficult to obtain and understand projections of climate change
Using Climate Projections
• Projections are usually presented in very technical ways • Hard to interpret maps • Complex graphs
• Often focussed on very large areas • Global • Continental
• Many individual model results • How many should you use? • How do you choose?
It can be difficult to obtain and understand projections of climate change
Using Climate Projections
• Projections are usually presented in very technical ways • Hard to interpret maps • Complex graphs
• Often focussed on very large areas • Global • Continental
• Many individual model results • How many should you use? • How do you choose?
It can be difficult to obtain and understand projections of climate change
Using Climate Projections
• Climate model data are freely available but hard to work with: • Very large files (e.g. 500 – 15,000 MB each) • Complex scientific language/jargon • Require advanced computer skills to manipulate
It is difficult to obtain, understand and work with projections of climate change
Typical climate projections
• Individual climate variables for selected years and emissions scenarios
• Results from all climate models combined: average change with a range, e.g.
– 2°C (1-3°C) warmer – 10% (5-15%) wetter
• OK for general information, but... • Impact assessments often need to consider multiple
variables (e.g. building energy consumption, crop growth, species distributions) • Need to use individual models to avoid problems with internal
consistency of the data
Case study 1: Projections for developing Pacific island nations
The problem • In 2008, 15 island developing nations in the Asia-Pacific had identified
the need for improved understanding at a national level: • Past climate and trends • Likely future changes
The problem
IPCC: North Pacific
IPCC: South Pacific
• In 2008, 15 island developing nations in the Asia-Pacific had identified the need for improved understanding at a national level: • Past climate and trends • Likely future changes
PCCSP/PACCSAP Science
• Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP)
− ∼$20m over ∼ 2.5 yrs (2008/9-2010/11)
• Pacific – Australia Climate Change Science & Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Science Program
− ∼$20m over ∼ 2.5 yrs (2011/12-2013/14)
• Funded & administered by Australian Government: − DFAT & Dept of Environment
• Delivered by Collaboration for Australian Weather & Climate Research (CAWCR): − partnership between CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology
• 15 diverse partner countries & key regional organisations and universities incl. SPREP, SPC, USP, Red Cross and GIZ
PCCSP/PACCSAP Science Program - Scope
• New science • Seasonal predictions & climate data (data rescue &
digitisation) • Large-scale climate features & variability • Regionally specific projections: climate & extremes • Ocean processes
• Tools development & technical support • Pacific Climate Futures (online projections) • CliDE (observations database) • Datasets & portals
• Communication products • Technical report & country brochures • Summary report • Journal papers, animations, fact sheets & training
materials
• Capacity development − Mentoring & attachments − Technical training − Workshops, conferences,
symposia − Networking & collaboration − Science outreach/support
PCCSP/PACCSAP Science Program - Scope
• New science • Seasonal predictions & climate data (data rescue &
digitisation) • Large-scale climate features & variability • Regionally specific projections: climate & extremes • Ocean processes
• Tools development & technical support • Pacific Climate Futures (online projections) • CliDE (observations database) • Datasets & portals
• Communication products • Technical report & country brochures • Summary report • Journal papers, animations, fact sheets & training
materials
• Capacity development − Mentoring & attachments − Technical training − Workshops, conferences,
symposia − Networking & collaboration − Science outreach/support
Science products: Technical report (2014)
http://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org
• Climate variability, extremes and change in the western tropical Pacific: new science and updated country reports (BOM & CSIRO, 2014)
• > 45 peer-reviewed journal papers (+ PCCSP) • Technical report, country specific chapters: • Climate summary • Data availability • Seasonal cycles • Observed trends • Climate projections (CMIP5)
• Online publication:
• Country brochures (2015) for 14 PICs + Timor-Leste • Succinct, user-friendly/non-technical summary • 2011 (English + 12 Local languages) • 2015: Updated with new science
• On-line publication (http://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org)
Science products – Country Brochures
Pacific Climate Futures V2.0 • Online climate projections (59 global models; 1 regional model) • Unique ‘matrix’ display
ANIMATIONS
https://youtu.be/wCm-rf7XWXk
• Climate science-based training module & associated materials, including ‘manual’ & ppt presentations: • Country specific presentations (14 x PICs + Timor-Leste)
– Tailored for National Meteorological Services • Regional current/future climate • Understanding climate projections • Understanding climate variability and change
– Tailored for more general use • ppt presentation templates to facilitate ‘small group’
discussions – Tailored for more general use
Training materials
Fact Sheets
Fact Sheets (http://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org): • Climate variability & change • Large-scale climate processes • Climate extremes • Sea-level rise • Ocean acidification
Climate animations (educational)
• Climate Crab (regional) & Klaod Nasara (Vanuatu, local language) • Resource kits
Case study 2: Projections for Australia
Rigorous Science + Client focus Surveys of user needs have guided our planning • Stakeholder workshops throughout Australia in 2011 • Lessons from UK projections (Steynor et al., 2012) • NRM User Panel (2012-14)
....in response to user needs • Peer-reviewed brochures, reports and journal papers • Data for a wide variety of variables, such as temperature and
rainfall, will be made available in different formats • Data sets and tools available through a comprehensive web site • Information to suit a variety of audiences • A Help Desk providing support, guidance material and training
Decision tree
Data access for registered users
• Basic Information in plain English
• Carefully crafted • Model results + expert
analysis For example: • More hot days and warm spells
are projected with very high confidence. Fewer frosts are projected with high confidence.
• Increased intensity of extreme rainfall events is projected, with high confidence.
MAP EXPLORER TOOL
Viewing and obtaining the right data – projected changes
Viewing and obtaining the right data – “application-ready”
MAP EXPLORER TOOL
MARINE EXPLORER
CLIMATE CAMPUS
GUIDANCE
ANIMATIONS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fxJS0JTHfw
Thank you John M Clarke
Team Leader Projections Science & Services CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere Aspendale, Vic. AUSTRALIA [email protected]
Australian Climate Futures Results
Best case
Worst case
Max. Consensus
Using individual models for detailed impact assessments – key cases
Climate Model 1 Impact Model Assessment 1
Climate Model 2 Impact Model Assessment 2
Climate Model 3 Impact Model Assessment 3 Synt
hesi
s and
Eva
luat
ion
‘Best’ Case (with model consensus information)
‘Worst’ Case (with model consensus information)
‘Maximum Consensus’ Case