Unmanned Aerial Systems at a Crossroads

What Does the Future Hold?

21 January 2015

Steve Schmidt

Major General (Retired)United States Air Force

Crossroads

Drivers for change

High demand UAS / ISR, always want moreBest framework . . . Smart Defense

What next?2 of 19Photo: US DOD/01/01/10

Drivers for Change

• Increasing threat verses financial realityExquisite, expensive, very capable military systems are not sustainable or geared for the greatest or nearest threat

• Insatiable demand and limited UAS / ISR availability• Integration of NATO AGS

Maintaining the status quo is not an option

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Photo NATO AGS

Economic Crisis and Shortfalls

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“Through our operations, including Libya and Afghanistan, we have identified the areas where our capabilities do not go far enough or too few countries have them.”

“Work has been ongoing, but the economic crisis has not made it any easier.”

“So we need to take a long hard look at the most effective way to work together to close those gaps.”

“Libya revealed shortfalls in precision-guided munitions; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets …”

Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, February 2014

Insatiable Demand

“It’s at the breaking point . . . has been for a long time. What’s different now is that the band-aid fixes are no longer working.”

Photo Alamy/Majumdar/Daily Beast/01/04/15

5 of 19A Senior US Air Force Official, January 2015

Very reluctant to export airborne surveillance or unmanned aircraft … even to close allies

Exports

Cannot sell an “armed Reaper” even to countries purchasing the Joint Strike Fighter

PGMs to Arab partners but not surveillance/UAS aircraft

6 of 19Photo: General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper http://www.ga-asi.com/

Technology Today“Pillars of Creation”

Bigger and sharper Hubble telescope photo of the Eagle Nebula's “Pillars of Creation” next to the original 1995 Hubble picture in this NASA image released January 6, 2015

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Photo: NASA

Smart Defense“I know that in an age of austerity, we cannot spend more. But neither should we spend less. So the answer is to spend better…. This means we must prioritise, we must specialise, and we must seek multinational solutions through cooperation.”

Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, September 30, 2011

Smart Defense • Best use of NATO resources• Model for future modernization and acquisition

Specialization: Nations identifying particular sets of capabilities, through a

process of consultation to accept some degree of

reliance on the Alliance as a whole to maintain as full a

spectrum as possible

Prioritization: Investments in line with the strategic decisions taken at Lisbon, while better aligning

collective and national priorities

Cooperation: Acquiring, pooling,

sharing, and maintaining together the capabilities and skills that we cannot

afford to do alone

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“The future of combat aerospace in Europe”• Britain and France begin a 2-year joint

military UAS feasibility project

Smarter Defense “Cooperation”

Atlante commercial UAV for pipeline, natural disaster & railway surveillance• Airbus applied for civil certification

of Atlante to the European Aviation Safety Agency

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Model of surveillance drone by Dassault Aviation & BAE Systems at 2011 Paris Air Show (AFP Photo/Pierre Verdy)

Photo Courtesy of Airbus Defence and Space

Extended Range Reapers

“USAF to convert more of its 104 MQ-9 Reaper UAVs to extended range configuration, in addition to the 38 already indicated”

• MQ-9 endurance is about 32 hours (clean)• ER-upgraded vehicle is understood to be > 40 hours

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Photo: US Air Force

CAS aircraft

BCD

BN TACP

ASOC

BDE TACP

FIRES BN FDC

DIV FSE

JFO/PLT FO

CORP FSE

BTRY FDC

CAOC

UAS

AH

CoalitionBN FSE

JTAC

Coalition

NATO AWACS NATO AGS

Multi-National SolutionsAWACS is not just a radar and radio platform

Platform Network Services Apps11 of 19

NAEW&CF

EMPIRE CHALLENGE 2010

UAS + AWACS• NATO AWACS demo in USA Aug 10• Controlled ScanEagle UAV & Sensor• First AWACS Battle Management Effects

Compressed F2T2EA cycle . . . to

minutes

F 2 T 2 E ACompressed

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“I would challenge us to do it in single-digit minutes” . . . CSAF foreseeing the need to compress the kill chain in 1999

Photo NAEW&CF

Photo NAEW&CF

EMPIRE CHALLENGEUAS + AWACS

Fix/cross-cueing

Target Track Using FMV

Positive Identification

Collateral Damage Estimate

Engage

Battle Damage Assessment

“Target Talk-on”

“DynamicTargeting”

13 of 19Photo NAEW&CF

Photo NAEW&CF

Photo NAEW&CF

Photo NAEW&CF

Photo NAEW&CF

Photo NAEW&CF

BOLD QUEST 2011JTAC Digital CAS + AWACS

• Digital Close Air Support• Near Real-time ISR data• CAS data transferred from

JTAC to operators digitally

JTACs flew as AWACS aircrew

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Compressing the Kill-Chain - Interconnectedness of key players navigating UCAVs perpetuates a new dimension of time-space compression. (Photo by Oppenheimer, Military Technology, 28/08/13)

Photo NAEW&CF

Photo NAEW&CF

ARCTIC TIGER 2012JTAC Digital CAS + AWACS

JTAC using FACNAV tool on E-3A engaged “bombs on coordinates” by Dutch and Norwegian F-16sTested • Next Gen Chat Rack• ISR exploitation tool• FACNAV tool for Digital CAS

Target 1Target 2

Chat

JTAC on AWACS to Tactical Operations Center

FriendlyConvoy

FACNAV screen on E-3A

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Photo NAEW&CF

NAEW&CF

UNIFIED VISION 2012 & 2014

Joint ISR Specialization • Stratus Rising ISR Capability Tested

-- SNIPER targeting pod on E-3A - Full Motion Video • Cooperative Electronic Support Measures Tested

-- Near real-time, multi-platform ESM data collaboration• UV14 – 18 nation fused ISR with Multi-Intelligence All-

Source Joint ISR Interoperability Coalition 2 (MAJIIC2) -- Developing NATO’s Joint ISR Initial Oper Capability by end 2016

SNIPER TARGETING POD

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Photo NAEW&CF

• €1B contract signed at NATO Summit in Chicago -- 5 RQ-4Bs multi-platform radar technology insertion program (MP-RTIP) and ground moving target indicator (GMTI)

• Common funded, NATO owned and operated, shared AGS capability

• Primary contributor to NATO’s Joint Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance (JISR) capability

Alliance Ground Surveillance

“Gamechanger”

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Photo NATO AGS NATO AGS

Evolution Needed

• Multinational solutions through cooperation • Move from Platform to Network-based• Everything a SENSOR• Need to Share • Network Security• Push to Tablets and Handheld Devices

Photo: Fg Off Owen Cheverton/MOD

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ACTA NON VERBA

19 of 19Photo NAEW&CF