u. s. coast guard international ice patrol commander scott rogerson international ice charting...
TRANSCRIPT
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U. S. Coast Guard International Ice Patrol
Commander Scott RogersonInternational Ice Charting Working Group
Frascati, Italy22 October 2007
Historical Perspective toRecent (Light) Iceberg Seasons
in the North Atlantic Ocean
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Outline• Brief Overview of IIP (history/mission)• Summary of 2002 & 2003 Iceberg Seasons• Summary of 2004-2006 Iceberg Seasons• Summary of 2007 Iceberg Season• Historical Perspective to 2004-2007 Seasons• Conclusions
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R.M.S. Titanic (1912)
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Belgium Canada Denmark Finland
France Germany Greece Italy
Japan Netherlands Norway Panama
Poland Spain Sweden United Kingdom
United States of America
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TITANIC
IIP’s Core Purpose: Promote safe navigation in the northwest
Atlantic Ocean when the danger of iceberg collision exists.
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IIP Mission
Monitor the iceberg danger
near the Grand Banks of Newfoundland
and provide the limits of all known ice
to the maritime community.
IIP Vision
Eliminate the risk of iceberg collision.
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Key IIP Metric = Icebergs South of 48N
Where icebergs pose greatest threat to most ships
Also
How many days are
icebergs a threat south of 48N in a given year?
(When did IIP begin and stop issuing
products?)
Note
Few (or no) icebergs south of
48N does not mean there are
no icebergs anywhere!
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How does IIP monitor the iceberg danger near the
Grand Banks of Newfoundland?
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We conduct aerial reconnaissance with USCG aircraft (out of St. John’s, Newfoundland)
HC-130H
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How does IIP provide the limits of all known ice to the
maritime community?
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We use a Berg Analysis & Prediction System (BAPS)…and issue Daily Products
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Summary of 2002 & 2003Iceberg Seasons
• 2002– Icebergs South of 48N: 877– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 147 (19 Feb – 15 Jul)
• 2003– Icebergs South of 48N: 927– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 116 (24 Mar – 17 Jul)
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Summary of 2004-2006Iceberg Seasons
• 2004– Icebergs South of 48N: 262– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 92 (27 Apr – 27 Jul)
• 2005– Icebergs South of 48N: 11– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 0
• 2006– Icebergs South of 48N: 0– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 0
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Speaking of 2004…
Just one iceberg can
ruin your day!
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Summary of 2007 Iceberg Season• 2007
– Icebergs South of 48N: 324– Days IIP Issued Daily Products: 117 (9 Apr – 3 Aug)
Summary of 2002 to 2007 Iceberg Seasons 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Icebergs South of 48N 877 927 262 11 0 324
Days IIP Issued Daily Products 147 116 92 0 0 117
First Product Issued 19-Feb 24-Mar 27-Apr NA NA 9-Apr
Last Product Issued 15-Jul 17-Jul 27-Jul NA NA 3-Aug
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Historical Perspective(1950-2007)
How many icebergs have crossed
48N (annually) since 1950?
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0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Icebergs South of 48N (1950-2007)Note:
• 50% of seasons had <250 icebergs cross 48N
• Several periods with numerous light seasons
• 58-year average = 511
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Conclusions
• Large interannual variability dominates the signal (for icebergs crossing 48N).
• Numerous light iceberg seasons in a row (or within a short period) is not uncommon.
• Icebergs remain a threat in the vicinity of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland (and North).
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Questions?
www.uscg.mil/lantarea/iip/home.html
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0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Icebergs South of 48N (1900-2007)
Surface Reconnaissance Aerial Reconnaissance
Average = 472