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An Investigation into the Challenge of Sustainable Development within the Turkana District of Kenya. A timely study including the threat of the Gibe III dam in Ethiopia. Photo by Adam Whatton (personal friend) Kiri Jane Morley August 2009 0

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Page 1: Turkana Paper Kiri Jane Morley

An Investigation into the Challenge of Sustainable Development within the Turkana District of Kenya.

A timely study including the threat of the Gibe III dam in Ethiopia.

Photo by Adam Whatton (personal friend)

Kiri Jane Morley

August 2009

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The District of Turkana in Kenya, and Population Densities

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Population Densities in Turkana, Figure from Watson, et. al. (2008:11) © 2008 ILRI (International Livestock Research Institute).

CONTENTS

SECTION 1- SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN TURKANA

About the Author…………………………………………………………………………....3

1.1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….4 The Turkana District…………………………………………………………………….4

1.2 Sustainable Development

1.2.1 Perceptions of Pastoralism…………………………………………………………………..5 Balancing pro-pastoral policies with livelihood diversification…………………………..6

1.2.2 The NORAD fishing scheme …………………………………………………………...…..6 Lessons from the Social and Survival Implications of the NORAD Fishing Scheme…....9

1.2.3 Irrigation …………………………………………………………………………………..10 Other Irrigation Failures………………………………………………………………….10

1.2.4 Sedentarization…………………………………………………………………………….11 Ekwar………………………………………………………………………………….....12

1.2.5 Disaster Resettlement ……………………………………………………………………..131.2.6 Current Crises- Food Insecurity…………………………………………………………...14

Table of Food Insecurity per Division in Turkana. ……………………………………….…14 PPR disease example………………………………………………………………...…..16

1.2.7 Livestock Markets…………………………………………………………...……………16 Imperatives within market driven schemes……………………………………………...17

1.2.8 Education………………………………………………………………………………….181.2.9 Alternative livelihood Schemes…………………………………………………………...18

Rainwater Harvesting……………………………………………………………………20 Case Study: Oxfam's Lokitaung Pastoral Development Project.......................................21

1.3 Research Findings

1.3.1 Regarding pastoralism itself……………………………………………………………….221.3.2 Regarding Alternative livelihood development schemes………………………………….22

SECTION 2 – GIBE III Dam

2.1 Dams Background……………………………………………………………………………23 The Gibe III Dam…………………………………………………………………………...23 Table of Kenyan and Ethiopian dams (AQUASTAT data)…………………………………..….242.2 Water Control………………………………………………………………………………...25 Turkwel Dam Case Study………………………………………………………………...…26 Lake Victoria Case Study…………………………………………………………………...27 Flood Regulation Concerns…………………………………………………………………272.3 Impacts……………………………………………………………………………………….28 2.3.1 Cessation of Recession Cultivation…………………………………………………...28 2.3.2 Riverine Forest devastation ………………………………………………………......29 2.3.3 Impacts on the Lake Turkana Ecosystem …………………………………………….29 2.3.4 Water well and watering holes………………………………………………………..29 2.3.5 Conflict………………………………………………………………………………..30 Map of the Ilemi Triangle…………………………………………………………………………...302.4 Additional concerns…………………………………………………………………………..312.5 Funding decisions…………………………………………………………………………….31

Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………..32

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Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………...……33Note about the Author

Kiri Jane Morley currently works with Soul Edge Ministries in Saskatchewan, Canada and Kenya. After finishing a BA in Politics studying both in Nottingham University with a year at McGill University, Canada. Kiri interned with Cafe Africa, a small NGO in Switzerland before taking up her current role within the Ministry. Her undergraduate dissertation was based on the Burundian Bashingantahe.

Kiri visited Turkana in February 2009 for the first time whilst co-leading a girls Soul Edge team. The contents of this paper is thus research which built upon personal experience.

Contact can be made at:[email protected] [email protected]

or via the director of Soul Edge ministries at:[email protected]

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1.1 Introduction

Turkana is an Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) located in north-western Kenya. The district is the largest in Kenya at 77,000 km², and is located in the Rift Valley Province. The 1999 census recorded a population of 450,860 people. Idiosyncratic of Turkana are the harsh climatic conditions which are illustrated by the scorching heat and relentless winds that tear across the semi-desert. While sometimes destructive, there are also short life-sustaining bursts of rain which lead to essential floods.

This project on Turkana is designed to give a brief overview of the risks facing sustainable living within this district, with a view to helping inform future development projects.

As such, food insecurity issues along with livestock concerns will be addressed in Section I. The overall focus of this section is based upon the legacy of pastoralism in relation to alternative livelihood options.

Section I helps set the scene for Section II which is primarily a short investigation into the effects of the Omo River Gibe III Dam upon livelihoods and indeed lives within Turkana. Though the dam will also affect many other communities downstream from the actual site, for the purpose of this investigation the remit of the study shall be limited to Turkana to help avoid the hazard of sweeping generalizations and to enable a more in depth district study.

The conclusions of this paper are twofold. Firstly, a great body of evidence supports the notion that pastoralism has indeed historically been the 'most viable subsistence system' (Critchley 1991b) in Turkana. This is largely due to its traditional adaptive methods that many other livelihoods lack to bolster survival in this harsh climate. However it is also recognized that continued pressures are increasingly undermining this traditional livelihood. This tendency has the potential to cause drastic economic, humanitarian and social repercussions further to those already seen. Through the analysis of many Turkana livelihood diversification projects it has been shown to be imperative to take at least the legacy of pastoralism seriously.

Secondly, the International Community should investigate the potential effects of the completion of the Gibe III dam more thoroughly and bring to account the project's inconsistent development agenda: development at the cost of humanitarian and ecological destruction. This 'development' seems to fly in the face of the International Community's golden rule of sustainability by increasing vulnerability, destitution and possible conflict in Turkana and neighboring regions. These plans were also made without real consultation with the people who it will affect.

The Turkana district

In securing state boarders, the British forces at the start of the 20th Century reached deep into Turkana. On several occasions including 1915,1916 and 1918 they confiscated livestock in part to halt the progression of the Turkana to wetter more fertile rangelands to the south, and in reaction to resistance vis a vis the foreign hut tax (Harden 1993:192). Later, they declared this harsh land to be a closed district (Harden 1993:193). The lack of integration with the rest of Kenya is a colonial legacy. Perception wise, the Turkana have historically not felt intrinsically linked to the rest of Kenya.

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This initial interference and livestock confiscation was no doubt a tragedy for many families since Livestock underlined not only livelihood but also the social fabric, with several studies concluding that Pastoralism arrived in East Africa around 4000 years ago (Little et. al 1999:3). Initiatives under the banner of ‘development’ in the latter half of the 20th Century have learnt this lesson the hard way.

1.2 Sustainable Development in Turkana

1.2.1 Perceptions of pastoralism

The dominant thought within the 1970’s was that pastoralism was unsustainable and destructive or simply seen negatively by development agencies. By the end of the 1980’s a drastic shift in opinion had started, with studies even saying that pastoralism in Turkana for example may even be the only sustainable livelihood. One interesting early re-evaluation, for example came from James E. Ellis and David M. Swift (1988). Indeed the well known ‘Tragedy of the Common’s’ illustration may not have been so applicable to this situation as people had once thought (Warren 1995). In fact, Andrew Warren outlined in 1995 that ‘the so-called 'new paradigm' sees semi-arid ecosystems as being in ‘permanent disequilibrium but persistent on broad temporal and spatial scales whilst many indigenous pastoral strategies are carefully adapted to these characteristics.’ This is markedly divergent from seeing pastoral systems as being inherently destructive upon limited resources and the ecosystem which otherwise would be in a greater state of equilibrium.

A fascinating study in the same year by Robin Reid and James E. Ellis supports this paradigm even finding that far from outdated ‘conventional wisdom’ that African Pastorlists were responsible for the overuse of woody plants and the degradation and desertification of semi-arid lands. Their Acacia tortilis study showed that ‘pastoralists may be improving rangelands in South Turkana’ (Reid et. al 1995:978).

Statistics in Harden (1993:191) even attested to research finding that in comparison to more ‘modern’ commercial ranches in arid regions of Australia, African Pastoralists extract four times the protein and six times the food energy per acre of rangelands. Astoundingly, this meant that at the time of the studies, per square mile 17 people could be supported through African Pastoralism in startling comparison to 1 person per 193 square miles. That means 3281 (193x17) pastoralists could be supported in the area needed for one Australian ‘modern’ rancher to be supported (Ibid). These statistics undoubtedly inform incredible support for African pastoralists.

Since then, up to date analyses generally continue to support the effectiveness of pastoralism in a harsh environment. The 2006 Pro-Poor Livestock Policy Facility writes that:

‘Pastoralism /agro-pastoralism is the best, if not only , means to make productive sustainable use of natural resources in arid and semi-arid areas that would otherwise remain unexploited,’ (Rass 2006:11).

Subsequently, they conclude that ‘although pastoral production systems achieve lower yields per animal than ’modern’ ranching systems, pastoralism is more productive per unit of land than the latter’ (Rass 2006:11).

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Like many other commentators, Rass (2006:11) posits that these traditional risk management strategies that underlie these successes are being increasingly undermined through changes in the areas, both manmade and climatic etc. (Ibid., Little 2001:1). These traditional strategies include herd movement through tracking rainfall, use of traditional watering places, herd dispersion through kinship and community links (Erkisen 2001:33), restocking methods and vital use of riparian forage in dry seasons.

Balancing pro-pastoral policies with livelihood diversification

Without investment and policies supporting these increasingly vulnerable African Pastoralists, as well as helping them with necessary livelihood diversification, Nikola Rass argues that the Millennium Development Goals will not be achieved in Sub-Saharan Africa (Rass 2006: 12, 74). What is clear from various schemes in Turkana, is that any sort of livelihood diversification scheme must bear in mind the importance of pastoralism and its value systems and legacy for these people (Little 2001, Rass 2006:34).

Little (2001:1) argues that since some forms of non-pastoral diversification might even increase vulnerability, ‘Interventions should prioritize promotion of customary resource use strategies (promoting mobility and livestock species diversity) where possible.’ Indeed, Little notes that herd mobility and diversification remain the most effective drought strategies (Little 2001:3).

Ostensibly, this might not always be possible seeing increasing threats to the success of these traditional strategies, however, the force in Little’s case and those of others, are underlined by numerous intervention case studies within Turkana.

1.2.2 The NORAD fishing scheme

In fact, when picking apart failed or failing initiatives in Turkana, an under reliance on local knowledge and drought surviving skills especially in respect to pastoralism has been widely criticized. The NORAD fishing freezing/co-operative scheme illustrates just this and a number of other poignant lessons.

While pastoralism remains predominant, with more than 90% of the district still in some way depending on this livelihood according to Makama et. al (2008:2), fishing was a historical alternative. However, fishing was always the last ditch option if every other opportunity was already exploited or no longer possible. However it was fishing that was the focus of the NORAD scheme. While there was some initial success the legacy is not as bright. The case study below will record some of these problems and what was learnt.

Two decades on from a failed co-operative and scheme that marooned many families as sedentary fishers, the outlook gets bleaker seeing that fishing and in fact any reliance on Lake Turkana is under even more of an imminent threat. The challenge to the estimated 250,0001 people that rely on Lake Turkana is not just climatic or natural, but is also man made - in particularly the Gibe III dam. This extreme threat is the focus of Section II.

At this point it is worth looking at the NORAD scheme in greater depth to learn valuable lessons about

1 Depending on the source, some say 200,000 at imminent risk while others say as many as 300,000. Different focuses when estimating the impact seem most likely to be the reason for this difference i.e some factor in the lowering of the water table and its ominous effect on other communities.

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development imperatives in Turkana and similar pastoral communities.

Photo by Adam Whatton, (personal friend).

Scenery outside of Kakuma, Turkana. Photo by Nadia Alexandrou, (personal friend).

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NORAD Fishing scheme

Invited by the Government of Kenya in the early 1970's because of their devotion to foreign aid and depth of fishing knowledge, the Norwegian International Development Agency set to work on a project to transform Turkana through accentuating and promoting fishing as the most promising livelihood in the semi-desert.

With many incentives, pastoralists were encouraged to congregate near Kalekol on the shore of Lake Turkana where the fishing co-operative and a Ksh30 million fish processing (freezing) factory would be based. The project focused on teaching more modern fishing techniques and research, donating boats, as well as building the co-operative, fish processing plant and the required infrastructure such as roads.

The problems

Despite what seemed to be a good plan of action, the project was misconceived in many ways to the detriment of many of the families it was designed to help.

By cooling fish down to freezing in desert temperatures, there was no real profit on the fish after freezing. This was clearly uneconomical, however this was not the only reason that the formalized fisheries were sentenced. Soon after the project was launched by a joint Norwegian and Kenyan effort, the valuable water decreased in depth as rains failed to visit the Omo river basin in the Ethiopian Highlands. As a result, the Omo River decreased its vital input to Lake Turkana dramatically at that time. Consequentially, the Ferguson gulf shallows dried up moving the shore 2km away. The fish then moved to deeper waters or elsewhere to better breeding grounds. The vast majority of fish from the areas where people collected had moved so far that they were out of practical reach without much more mechanisation. Increased revenue and storage help could not save the formalized development attempt on the shores. In 1986 the processing plant was shut down completely and has not been used since.

However there are still many people fishing on the shores of Lake Turkana in sedentary communities some subsidizing other incomes with fish, others using fish as a way to diversify and others relying on fish to earn their entire living. The lake thus sustains many communities and families brought by the NORAD scheme, some who where there before and others who have since settled by the shore.

A recent report commissioned by the Kenyan Government on the development and resource opportunities within Turkana placed fishing remarkably high on the development agenda (ALRMP and PriceWaterhouse Coopers 2005). One recent assessment even noted that the Ferguson Gulf was restocking due to its refilling in October 2007 which allowed them to account for an almost 50% rise in catches in March 2008(Makama, 2008:6-7). However this refilling must be held in the knowledge that drought and shore movements are not unusual.

This graph is from the same assessment (Makama, 2008:6) compiled by representatives from the Ministry of Public Health and Sanitation, the World Food program and a District Steering Committee.

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Lessons from the Social and Survival Implications of the NORAD Fishing Scheme

This expensive program was picked apart on several fronts. The impacts of the scheme alone were vast. For instance, the gathering of pastoralists into such close proximity led to:

1) Destruction of parts of the last pristine riverine (riparian) forest due to intensified local grazing and fire wood gathering.

2) The high population density was mirrored in the resultant high cattle density leading to marked overgrazing of the areas near the lake. By virtue of the sedentary results of the fishing scheme, the nomadic movement for better pasture and bush is markedly limited.

3) As livestock in the hype were passed over for fish disastrous status and general social implications began to emerge. Anthropologists knew that social relations were cemented by exchanges of livestock as a movable commodity.

Traditionally the woman’s dowry was paid by the husband to his parents-in-law in livestock. Without the livestock, it is noted in Harden (1993:195) for example that for women the consequence was that they were not considered married in the same way and so did not have the same rights, likewise some children appeared fatherless. Without equivalent support, prostitution was recorded for the first time, something to that date unheard of (Harden 1993:184).

Likewise the men were not left unscathed, since what the Norwegians and Kenyan Government considered an alluring prospect at catching vast quantities of fish, the Turkana generally regarded as a livelihood when all else fails- the last resort even of a failure (Harden 1993, ALMRP and PriceWaterhouse and Coopers 2005:13) .When this development project closed the doors on its uneconomical fish freezing factory, and uprooted their efforts, these stubborn scars and labels were left

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Implications

Lake Turkana is vital for the survival and livelihoods of many Turkana.Whether or not fishing is the most efficient way to diversify livelihoods could be hotly debated. Watson and Binsbergen (2008) have a good SWOT analysis on fishing as well as several other diversification opportunities. Problems include high start up costs and lack of extended markets.

Regardless, many now rely on fishing and the lake's shore to survive- 'subsistence and limited local trading' (ALMRP and PriceWaterhouse Coopers 2005:13). Thousands have gone to the lake as a last bid to survive as well as being dazzled and drawn down the money laden path outlined by development agencies.

Any impact upon the Lake's chemical balance or volume would impact these already vulnerable communities drastically. The projected impact of further damming the Omo River which feeds the lake would likely do just this. It is ironic that the 2005 ALMRP and PriceWaterhouse Coopers study commissioned by the Kenyan Government prized fishing as a real diversification opportunity saying that:

'Sustainable fishing is dependent on a healthy inflow of water into the lake. Over-abstraction of water on key rivers draining into the lake is impacting negatively on water levels in the Lake. Strategic interventions must focus on the sustainable use of upstream sources especially the Omo River' (Ibid).

The pro-fishing livelihood agenda this report for the government presented seems not to have done enough to convince them of the merits of protecting this 'important natural resource' (ibid.) in light of agreements vis a vis the Gibe III dam (see Section II) and its hydroelectric potential.

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on those who had been lured to the waters edge. Even more disastrously, their ability to adapt to present realities such as drought and the harsh Turkana climate was undermined (Eriksen 2008:820).

Moving away pastoralism in the case many other alternative livelihood development schemes has been argued to undermine this adaptability in a similar way. In the case of some irrigation schemes the reverse argument has also been used – instead of the new scheme simply undermining the pastoral livelihood and cultural links, the importance of pastoralism here meant that people still placed a lot of energy and focus on livestock and so did not invest 100 percent in the new scheme undermining its expected ‘potential’.

1.2.3 Irrigation

As such, past irrigation schemes within Turkana such as from the Turkwel dam have found pastoralism something unable to take out of their veins (Harden 1993:200). In some cases it was reported that diverted attention due to livestock tending led to some failures (Ibid.). By largely pouring most spare cash into livestock (mainly goats), and the irrigation schemes tying herds to close river and community proximity, the ecological balancing of the nomadic pastoralist’s last resort, the riparian (riverside) forage was threatened and undermined by uncharacteristic overgrazing (Harden 1993:200). Tens of thousands of trees were also chopped down for stock corrals and firewood (ibid.).

Like the fishing project, the Turkwel irrigation projects did not factor in that riparian areas were critical pastoral drought reserves (Eriksen and Lind 2009: 830, Little and Leslie 1999:30, Harden 1993:200 ). The riparian woodland in Turkana includes the pod-bearing Acacia tortilis this a critical dry season foodstuff for livestock. D. Layne Coppock studies starting in 1981 were formative in recording and studying the Turkana forage, much of which will be increasingly undermined by projects such as the future Gibe III Ethiopian dam.

The changes in ecology due to damming the Omo river will have similar effects to the ecological changes from the Turkwel dam- destruction. The vast water level drop in Lake Turkana will be devastating both for those who are sedentary and living nomadically.

Other Irrigation Failures

Today, thousands of acres of land designated for irrigation is out of use within the region and sub-Saharan Africa in general. Despite its importance it is notable that the focus on pastoralism has not been the only reason for irrigation failures within Turkana.

Financially the inputs required were ridiculously high for the pay back per farmer; Blaine Harden found one Kenyan Government study which actually found that $21,800 per family was spent on irrigation offset only by a $100 income per family ‘if lucky’ (NORAD spending advisor Arne Dalfelt commented in Harden 1993:200). Excruciatingly, despite using one-sixth of all Sahel country foreign project aid until the mid-80‘s, by the time Blaine harden writes in 1990 that the area of land brought under irrigation projects but no longer farmed was seventy-one thousand acres (Harden 1993:201-202).

In 1990, NORAD was the last donor to withdraw support from the Turkwel irrigation scheme, and

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collapsing soon after the farmers co-operative collapsed following fund scandals (Eriksen and Lind 2009:830). The irrigation communities were left without easy access to farm inputs or any proximate markets.

Aside from financial mismanagement and pressures, project management also left a lot to be desired. Irrigation ditches for example were often being organized without total respect and dignity for those involved (Harden 1993:199). The joint ownership and joint dreaming with the Turkana themselves seemed not to be a reality (Ibid., Hogg 1988:72-73).

Inherent design flaws including an inadequate one acre plot size and the omission of taking into account the seasonal vibration and unpredictability of the Turkwel River with its effects on irrigation channels after flooding, in addition to health effects due to standing water i.e. increased Malaria incidence (Harden 1993:201). To summarize, Eriksen and Lind note that ‘In the end, the intervention of external aid through the establishment of an irrigation scheme actually worsened the vulnerability of the poorest’ (Eriksen and Lind 2009:830).

Sedentarization whether due to fishing or irrigation schemes and other development strategies no doubt had other effects on those in Turkana.

1.2.4 Sedentarization

While roughly 70% of those in Turkana are nomadic or semi-nomadic pastoralists (Watson and Binsbergen 2008:1) with 90% according to Makama et. al (2008:2) depending somehow on livestock for their livelihood, the growing incidence of sedentary living with associated livelihood diversification is directly related to attempts to counterbalance threats to their livelihoods and survival (Watson and Binsbergen 2008:1, Little 2001:1).

Yet in regards to adapting and survival strategies Erikson and Lind (2009: 830) note that:

‘Sedentarization worsened people’s vulnerability, as fishing or farming alone never met their nutritional and food security needs. Being far from their home areas, and having few assets to share, settlers were not able to maintain important social ties in the pastoralist economy requiring the exchange of animals.’

This conclusion by Erikson and Lind seems to be upheld by the irrigation and fishing case studies above. Further vulnerability might also come from sedentarization in the form of health concerns.

Fratkin et. al (2006) are but one set of researchers who have empirically attempted to study and draw conclusions about the effects of sedentarization on pastoralists within Kenya. Their findings on the health and nutrition of both children and mothers show a marked deterioration for settled groups, and as such the team challenges the observed development bias towards sedentarization. Starting by weighing findings against studies that highlight notable benefits through living in a more defined locale, the advantages of formal education and health facilities once stationary, they nevertheless concluded that if one looked at health, for example, the odds still lean on the side of pastoralism:

‘Though pastoralism is not an option for all those in northern Kenya, the decrease in diarrheal and respiratory illness for pastoralist children is important for those policymakers interested in decreasing

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Forest Survival and The Ekwar system

The locally perceived threats to forest survival seem to tally with this evaluation. In a recent study by Stave et.al (2007) researchers found that the greatest conceived threats to the forests by local people near the Turkwel river were indeed seen as cultivation and permanent settlements.

This 2007 study thus proposes that developers and cultivators would be wise to look closely at revised versions of traditional resource and forestry management (Stave et. al 2007:1485-1486, Stave et. al 2001, Barrow 1990). It is vital to recognize that these forests are critical. Indeed the Ethnobotanical knowledge found in just this paper relating to the uses of the riparian forests are astounding. Turkana informants assigned domestic or pastoral uses to 85% of the 113 woody species mentioned, among the 105 specific uses described in group interviews. These forests are clearly invaluable (Stave et.al 2007:1476).

One such resource management system is called Ekwar. Ekwar is a system whereby semi-private rights are given to particular acacia tortilis trees for their vital pods and other resources that can be found on a parcel of land (Stave et.al 2007:1473, Barrow 1990, Stave et al. 2001). The undermining and confrontation with the Ekwar system in recent years has been spurred on and compounded by competing land use and an increased density of locally competing people due to these different uses and accompanied sedentarization (Stave et.al 2007:1482, Stave et. al 2001). This tension is also compounded by the juxtaposition of alternative but ‘official’ forestry policies (Stave et.al 2007:1473). As Stave et. al mention, ‘these conflicts are largely fuelled by the rapid encroachment of alternative land-use practices, including irrigated agriculture and permanent settlements,’(Ibid). Additionally the tragedy of the unraveling of social linkages associated with some new livelihood and development projects are likely to increasingly undermine socially maintained resource management systems such as Ekwar (Barrow 1990). As noted above, Harden (1993) uncovered just this effect when he was researching the effects of the NORAD fishing scheme.

child mortality and morbidity for African children, particularly those involved in settling of traditional nomads. According to our findings, the consequences of settling for the health and nutrition of pastoralist children may be negative ones,’ (Fratkin 2006:27).

A comparative study related to the health of Turkana men specifically upon sedentarization was carried out by Barkey et. al (2001). They concluded that the social consequences such as changes in dietary composition and activity patterns, increased pathogenic exposure in line with increased population density, environmental population and psychosocial stress might have been responsible for the ‘more severe’ complaints of these men (Barkey et. al 2001: 391).

Aside from the health problem, we have seen in both the fishing and irrigation schemes that living in more stayed communities especially with some sort of livestock reliance is problematic to both the environment and continued nomadic herding. The high animal densities from sedentary communities have increasingly undermined the ability for nomadic pastoral groups to find and keep forage for their herds. This potentially perpetuates the problem as these groups might then have to seek a different and often more sedentarized way of life.

1.2.5 Disaster Resettlement

Findings regarding sedentarization are crucial. Further drying of Lake Turkana (due to climatic and manmade events such as the Gibe III dam) would not only effect already sedentarized peoples who

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were caught out or just sustaining a livelihood after the fishing craze, irrigation schemes or other unfortunate incidents. As noted, it would also affect those who have held onto nomadic ways and yet are still in part reliant on Lake Turkana for water and it’s role in sustaining the ecosystem and forage essential in drought (such as the forested areas). These people may become crippled in their livelihoods with no other choice but to seek aid and other help that forces increased sedentarization. As noted, estimates from 200,000 to 300,000 people rely on Lake Turkana for livelihood and survival. This estimate includes those who would be unable to access water as a result of water table drops causing life saving shallow wells to run dry permanently.

Not only does sedentarization have the above effects, but it is clear that the potential form of this might be more debilitating. Turkana is home to a number of so called slums in the desert, as well as a large UNHCR refugee camp near Kakuma. Alternative livelihoods are available but at the huge cost of stripping the social status and identity from many of these people that comes from their pastoral heritage. For those who leave the area in search of a completely new life, some might head to Kitale, an example of one of the next big towns considered to be in Kenya ‘proper.’ Here, like elsewhere, the slums are bursting with many of people from different origins who come in search of a better life including those from Turkana. This is not solving a problem, it is just relocated from Turkana to Kitale. Many children who head to these towns also end up with the streets, confronted by the lure of treacherous glue to keep them warm and without hunger, modes of earning a living that are often hugely damaging and a struggle for a dignified or safe life.

Children from the families of refugees from Mt. Elgon miraculously moved into Turkana last year during the election violence. Turkana has many refugee camps including a very large UNHCR Kakuma camp.

Photo by Nadia Alexandrou 2009 (personal friend).

1.2.6 Current Crises- Food Insecurity

Thousands of people are not only potentially vulnerable in Turkana. Due to past interventions and

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famine, thousands of people have been dependent upon food aid not only on occasion, but consistently for survival. The reduction of such vulnerability and dependence would be essential as part of any sustainable development objectives in the district.

Many of the current food aid interventions were started in 2004 by the Government of Kenya (GOK), the UN and other partner NGO’s (Makama et. Al 2008: 2). The Turkana district is targeted through food distribution, food for assets programs and cash for work initiatives, as well as Targeted Supplementary Feeding Programs in 16 of the 17 divisions (Makama et. Al 2008:2).

Food Insecurity per Division in Turkana.

Makama (2008:10)

The food security situation is worsening in Turkana. The following reasons identified by Makama et. al (2008:3) go some way to helping understand the current challenges on this front, (see table).

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Rise of food prices

Recent cereal price increases by over 50% to 100% in most parts of greater Turkana were largely attributed by Makama et. al (2008:2) to:

• Significant increase of motor fuel• Effects of post election conflicts in parts of the country

Other factors include:

Declining terms of trade.

• While food prices increase, livestock prices are deteriorating as a result of deteriorating livestock body conditions.

Livestock

• Livestock diseases such as PPR (petis des petitis ruminants), CCPP (contagious caprine pleuropneumonia) , CBPP (contagious bovine pleuropneumonia).

• Insecurity due to cattle rustling, especially in the southern regions and some parts of central and northern regions

• Displacement of people due to violence and cattle rustlingRains

• The failure of 2007 short rains coupled with inadequate 2008 long rains led to poor regeneration of pasture/browse and inadequate recharge of water sources

• Crop failure in rain fed agricultural zones and expected reduced harvest in irrigated farms.

Food insecurity isn’t the only basic need that is under threat. While a man can live for weeks without food, one can only live three days without water. Therefore scarily imminent threats to the essential waster supply in the Turkana region drastically compound the existing food insecurity. Later in this paper Section two will look further into this threat to water availability and its impacts, especially as a result of the proposed Gibe III dam. For now, an example of this connection is the ecological damage done to the forage such as Acacia tortilis pods if the riverside ecology is harmed due to water drops and increased salinity.

The majority of the reasons for increasing food insecurity in Turkana identified above can be linked back to livestock and the pastoral heritage of the area. This goes to show the importance of addressing such issues to help decrease the vulnerability of the Turkana, not just diverting attention to livelihood diversification. These are real pressures on pastoralism that are tied to not only the nomadic population but those who invest energies and status in livestock even on a more sedentary basis.

An example of an area that could have a drastic impact upon the economic and physical survival of people within Turkana is livestock disease prevention and immunization. Since DEFRA notes that ‘economically,' PPR is 'the most important animal disease in southern equatorial Africa, being a major constraint on the availability of animal protein for human consumption’ ( 2007), increased mobilization of resources to fight such diseases seems crucial to help fight food insecurity.

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PPR

PPR stands for Petis des Petitis Ruminants', also known as Goat Plague. This disease can also affect sheep, and is characterized by ‘erosive stomatitis, enteritis, pneumonia and death’.

According to the FAO, the Rinderpest virus devastated buffalo and cattle in Asia and Europe in centuries gone by, as well as in Northern Africa. However it was only upon its introduction in the Horn of Africa in 1887 that Sub-Saharan Africa inherited the disease. It was stamped out by most of the above regions, and by the early 1900’s it had released its grip on Southern Africa (where it once stretched as far as the Cape of Good Hope), only to remain in northern equatorial Africa (Anderson et. al 1996). Recently however, it has once again spread further afield.

Significantly, they also highlight that within Africa, ‘a focus persists north of Lake Turkana in the borderlands of Ethiopia, Kenya, the Sudan and Uganda, an area of civil unrest’ (Anderson et. al 1996). This has marked implications on the region of Turkana.

Interventions in Turkana have included vaccination projects covering over 1.5 million vaccinations by 2006, an Epidemiology Turkana survey, and Sero-surveillance.

Turkana prevalence of PPR

A participatory epidemiological study led by B. Bett et. al (2009) from the International Livestock Research Institute in Nairobi, Kenya and the Belgian Vétérinaires Sans Frontières have highlighted that goats were perceived as the ‘most abundant livestock species’ while goats and camels were seen to‘contribute the most to the livelihoods of the pastoralists’.

In identifying the impact of PPR and other diseases such as contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and mange, all had a significant impact. Respectively, their incidence for goats were 23.5%, 25% and 20% The fatality rates, taking a median, were 66%, 62.5% and 73.2% ( however the 10th and 90th percentiles here were 21.4 and 85.7). For camels however, mange and pox were perceived to be the most prevalent diseases, (see Bett et. al 2009).

Hey identified these key factors helping to determine the high prevalence and persistence of these diseases:

Livestock movements Limited access to veterinary services Stock theft (Ibid.)

In fact, security of livestock has been threatened since some depleted herds have been replenished by raiding/conflicts. Although this has been done as an insurance policy in the past, it is aided by the fact that different groups lay the blame of introducing the disease upon each other.

1.2.7 Livestock Markets

The lack of available markets for livestock and other marketable goods is another key restraint to attempts to reduce vulnerability of those trying to earn a living though tapping into market economies.

According to the ALRMP and PriceWaterhouse Coopers strategy report the Kenyan Government, the 'Constraints imposed by poor infrastructure mean that the district’s access to livestock markets in other parts of Kenya as well as the export market is limited. Poor infrastructure also means that the district is largely a primary producer of livestock with little, if any, value addition'(2005:12). This is a remarkably pointed statement and yet the conclusions are largely uncontested.

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Watson and Van Binsbergen for example have identified the key livestock markets in the area (below) and have found them unsurprisingly lacking. The lack of infrastructure within Turkana alone posses great challenges on this front.

Figure: Livestock markets in Turkana (Watson and Van Binsbergen 2008: 38).

Many externally designed development schemes diversify livelihoods with view to tapping into regional markets, ‘searching for cash’ (Watson and Binsbergen 2008:2). Watson and Binsbergen highlight that there has been extensive debate over the merit of this incentive, some ‘condemning and others applauding it’ (Ibid.). Clearer conclusions would therefore help develop a more consistent rational towards development schemes in places such as Turkana.

Imperatives within market driven schemes

If access to markets is to be seen as key to livelihood development, then the development of these markets such should run alongside these schemes. A shortage of markets within Turkana for produce and items is a clear stumbling block for this type of development.

Longevity of co-operative schemes has also undermined the access to markets in the past. Securing markets and aiding those capable of selling produce at distance seems the most logical step to help those committed to such livelihoods. An example of this is seen in fishing and irrigation communities.

Illustrations of this include the collapse of the NORAD fishing co-operative and the Katilu (Turkwel) Irrigation Scheme’s FAO created co-operative in 1997. Both of these collapses markedly 'amputated' the market reach of the respective products (Watson and Binsbergen 2008:15,17 Lucheli and Bartoo 2009). As such, Lucheli and Bartoo (2009) in The Standard newspaper went so far as to say that 'Far from making fishermen self-reliant, the co-operative ran aground and robbed them of the power to earn a living'.

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The irony is that in fishing for example, many groups have noted that there is much room to improve fish marketing today in the DRC, central Kenya and even Sudan for example (Watson and Binsbergen 2008:15). The Turkana Vision Strategy paper speaks to this desire to harness markets by saying that 'People must be supported to form strong marketing associations to drive their access to markets sustainably' (ALMRP and PriceWaterhouse Cooper 2005:13). This desire seems consistent for those involved in productive development activities across the board in Turkana, while the merits of diversification into market based economies is debated as noted above (Watson and Binsbergen 2008:2).

1.2.8 Education

It cannot go without saying that education is a clear concern for many organizations, and clearly opens up different livelihood opportunities.

There are many proponents that would not hesitate at advocating education across the board, with the education of 'the girl child' also being a national and regional agenda. While this is so, in the past standardized national curriculums have meant that the traditional knowledge required for survival in this particularly harsh environment was being lost to the newer generations (Harden 1993: 215-216).

Another key concern is where those educated may get jobs. There are a few built up regions in Turkana especially due to the residence of the UN, however jobs are certainly limited and the longevity of such missions not indefinite. A clear fertile ground for a 'brain drain' scenario is in the making. All these considerations should be made in regards to the best way to help educate the children. For example, nomadic schooling is a compromise to the sedentary school systems. There are some nomadic schemes in progress.

1.2.9 Alternative livelihood Schemes

For pastoralists wishing to diversify and spread risk or those who have fallen on hard times and need an alternative to pastoralism, there are several possibilities without necessarily defaulting to looking for formal employment in more built up centers such as Kakuma, Lodwar or out of the district. These possibilities include, but are not limited to the following:

(1) Aloe Vera.

While being a 'high potential plant which has so far not been fully exploited despite its availability' according to Makama (2008:5). Numerous commentators herald its potential, including Watson and Binsbergen (2008).

Prunus Africana (ALMRP and PriceWaterhouse Cooper 2005:9) and other more specialized and medicinal plants are of great potential. Challenges include the need for adequate specialized marketing.

(2) Mining

Regulated and controlled mineral mining is not new, but there are suspected to be many more deposits than known about. There are clear environmental challenges posed with mining as a livelihood (ALMRP and PriceWaterhouse Cooper 2005:14).

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(3) Charcoal

Selling of charcoal is not new, though returns are poor and the environmental impact of over-harvesting trees is a key concern (ALMRP and PriceWaterhouse Cooper 2005:15). It is highly labor intensive for those walking miles to get to a town or a centre where negligible returns are often made, for example in Kakuma.

(4) Wildlife Tourism.

With hippos, birds, Nile crocodiles, and seasonal game and predators visiting Turkana, tourism has been somewhat lucrative, especially in the national parks. A key challenge is how finance could trickle down to the locals themselves. Likewise any ecological challenges such as those posed by the Gibe III dam would be devastating on these industries.

(5) Basket Weaving

Weaving of mats and baskets is another option, especially near Lake Turkana where the Doum Palm is available (Watson, DJ and J van Binsbergen,2008:2).

(6) Processing and Sale of Skins and Hides

This is clearly accessible for those with livestock. (Little et al. 2001, Watson, DJ and J van Binsbergen,2008:2 and many others note this).

(7) Other produce

Gum arabic (Little et al. 2001), honey, wild fruits and alcohol (Watson, DJ and J van Binsbergen 2008:2).

(8) Newer forms of Irrigation and Rainwater Harvesting

Despite past failures, irrigation might still have some merits, especially with micro-projects such as those run by the Catholic Mission in Turkana. Working on the smaller scale some of these larger failures and uneconomic spending drains might be avoided. Using new technology such as solar panels instead of generators for example are some of the areas that might breathe new life into these older ideas.

For example, Harden remarked on the use of ideas from Israel to keep a small individual reservoir (micro-catchments) next to the roots of critical trees have been shown to be of real benefit within Turkana (1993: 206). In the knowledge that this list is by no means exclusive or exhaustive, it does nonetheless seem applicable at this point to look at this intervention in greater depth.

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Rainwater Harvesting

Much of the awareness on the possibilities of using water harvesting techniques in Arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) (like Turkana and elsewhere in Africa), began with the work of Evanari et.al (1971) in the Negev Desert of Israel (Critchley and Siergert 1991: 1.1.2).

There are a number of different rainwater harvesting (RWH) technologies that might be of use within Turkana. For example trials have been held in Kakuma, Turkana using 'combination of runoff-water harvesting and agroforestry techniques - runoff agroforestry systems’ (RAS) (Droppelmann and Berliner 2003). This research paper in 2003 argued that:

'Nomads in the Middle East and all over the world are under increasing pressure to lead a more sedentary way of life. In order to allow this inevitable change, a transition phase is necessary in which nomads are able to secure their own livelihood without having to give up their cultural heritage and traditions (Ibid.)'

This sort of scheme might indeed hold several merits in line with the findings of this paper and towards these ends stipulated by the researchers.

The water harvesting schemes were most widely trialed in the 1980's especially after disillusionment with the viability of irrigation schemes along the Turkwel and Kerio rivers have had mixed results. Often however the management of larger projects has been to blame for failures with project costs booming due to food for work, food aid and lack of supervision in addition to problems from lack of local planning participation/ consultation and few trained staff (Hogg 1988:72-73). Many failures reported said more about the scheme itself as opposed to the ideas failing- many proposed catchments for example were left undug (Hogg 1988:72).

Regarding the schemes in the 1980's the FAO (Critchley and Siergert 1991: 1.1.2) insightfully concluded that 'few of the projects have succeeded in combining technical efficiency with low cost and acceptability to the local farmers or agropastoralists' .This leads again to the conclusion that 'appropriate systems should ideally evolve from the experience of traditional techniques' (Critchley and Siergert 1991:1.1.3).

Much research can be done on schemes devoted to Rainwater Harvesting and could easily be the subject of a whole paper. The FAO have a fantastic annotated bibliography available online which would serve as a great starting resource (Ibid.). There are so many variations and ways of harvesting rainwater that sweeping statements do not give an adequate overview of the possibilities within this field. As noted the Catholic Mission in Turkana has had several successful schemes on a small scale.

One interesting water harvesting project that has seen some success in Turkana has been the Oxfam Lokitaung Pastoral Development Project. It is worth looking at the lessons from this scheme.

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Case Study: Oxfam's Lokitaung Pastoral Development Project

This project near Lodwar was set up in 1984 under the name the 'Turkana Water Harvesting Project'. In 1990 it acquired its current identity as a locally managed scheme even drawing its management from the local traditional institutions (Prinz 1996:21) derived from local committees in Loarengak, Kachoda and Kaaling . What is encouraging is that women are also included in its leadership and running (Critchley 1991b ) and although ‘food for work’ schemes were initially used, this incentive has been reduced and work has even been done on a voluntary basis. In this way it shows a sustainability not seen in many projects establish around the same time. It has even made use of Turkana knowledge for example planting sorghum where water naturally gathers.

As such, this Project was thus born with the twin objectives of:

• demonstrating appropriate rainwater harvesting systems• introducing animal draught for ploughing and earth moving

The original idea was thus to improve rainwater harvesting for sorghum production. Crops would then help to supplement livestock income meaning that families could restock their herds getting them ''back on their feet" as pastoralists (Critchley 1991b).2

Its concern for pastoral production is admirable amid the findings of the paper regarding the importance of speaking to the pastoral heritage (Prinz 1996:21) , customs and traditional knowledge. Indeed the rational of the project is well summarized in a paper by Will Critchley (1991b). Critchley found that those developing the projects did not deny pastoralism as critical in the area, but in light of this note recognised its increased vulnerability and so have looked at ways to make crop production possible:

'The average rainfall is 360 mm, with as little as 115 mm in some years, and as much as 650 mm in others. Pastoralism is the most viable subsistence system. The balance can however, be upset by disease or drought. Crop production is not possible without irrigation or some form of water harvesting' (Critchley 1991b)

So, this project speaks directly to this need primarily by improving the collection of rainwater runoff giving the sorghum more moisture to survive in the harsh conditions. The results were said to be more reliable harvests, which in the early 1990's meant good harvests in 3 of 5 years, a real increase in reliability. Training locals has been very effective, through there is a variable level of crop husbandry that could be tackled along with better monitoring systems. Animal draught (plowing) has bas been slower to catch on, but there are real possibilities here.

Since its introduction the Management Board decided to change the project focus from purely water harvesting into, unsurprisingly, livestock and food security.

The project has not come cheap, but there are possible ways of reducing ongoing costs for example planting shrubs to make the required sandy landscape needed for the water harvesting (Critchley 1991b).

This is a very interesting project. The pastoral focus and use of traditional knowledge systems and local input fused with the techniques brought to the area and use of women in real leadership positions all seem hugely positive developments. How the project kept its irrigation/water focus but evolved into a more holistic approach including more on pastoral livelihoods is very telling and speaks volumes about what developments interest those involved.

2See Morgan (1974) for a paper concerning the use and importance of Sorghum

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1.3 Research Findings

While many development efforts may be focused at helping diversify away from pastoralism through appreciating the threats to its traditional sustainability, they often fail to appreciate its legacy which affects the outcome of even well conceived development schemes in the area.

Further thought and discussion about the aims of aid driven development schemes would be of use to determine whether the aim is in fact bolstering survival, or pushes towards market based development, or some part way model.

In the first instance, investigation might then be focused on looking for ways to mitigate and alleviate threats towards traditional methods of risk survival.

1.3.1 Regarding pastoralism itself

- Help to reduce livestock diseases such as PPR.- Reservation of essential drought foods such as Acacia tortilis in threatened riparian woodland/forests. - Preservation of water resources for the ecological balance, but also for watering spots and wells to be replenished by sufficient ground water. Threats to this include climate change, but also other man made threats such as the Omo river dam. - Overgrazing by semi-nomadic or sedentary pastoralists of vital land could be managed, or increased dialogue on sustainability introduced.- Traditional ‘last resort’ activities such as fishing could be maintained as a possibility. The Omo river dam is one of the major threats to this activity. Taking away such last chance safety nets could be very damaging.

1.3.2 Regarding Alternative livelihood development schemes

-These should be developed whilst keeping the social links of pastoralism in mind. The undermining of kinship links and social status has been argued to increase vulnerability of populations to the harsh climate and its fluctuations. Either way, a plan to retain some of these links or increase the security of alternative schemes must be developed.

-Schemes should not increasingly undermine pastoralism as a byproduct i.e. irrigation in the past. Otherwise for the sake of ‘development,’ more ‘development’ would be needed.

- If market driven development is undertaken, market access and infrastructural problems must be tackled in kind. It would seem logical to put in place longer lasting links to these markets in an attempt for the market access to outlive co-operative or other foreign driven backing in light of the breakdown of such extended markets in the past when foreign support has been withdrawn.

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SECTION 2 – GIBE III Dam

This section looks specifically at the threat of the Gibe III dam (on the Ethiopian Omo River) upon the people living in Turkana, especially the estimated 200,000 to 300,000 people who are reliant upon Lake Turkana. The ecological balance of this lake and its hydrological idiosyncrasies stand to be radically changed by the dam's construction.

This study is focused primarily upon the peoples who live in Turkana in Northern Kenya due to the focus of my extended study; however the Omo River Dam would affect those downstream in Ethiopia, as well as Sudanese pastoralists. The widespread nature of this threat should not be lost within the narrower range of this paper.

The findings of this research lead to the conclusion that the dam's completion will intensify the vulnerability of the people within the region. It will also stand to undermine not only pastoralism that has traditionally been the 'most viable subsistence system' (Critchley 1991b) in the area with traditional adaptive methods that many other livelihoods lack for this harsh climate, but the dam also threatens and other sustainable development prospects in the area. This is due to the inherent threats to both water access for humans and cattle, as well as livelihoods (pastoralism, agropastoralism and fishing for example).

2.1 Background

Within Africa, there are almost 1,300 large and medium sized dams. A large dam, according to ICOLD (International Commission on Large Dams) is over 15 m high from the dam’s foundation, or has over a 3 million m³ reservoir volume. In the world, there are more than 45,000 large dams with around half of these in China. Of those in Africa, 40% (or 517), are located in South Africa,(Aquastat 2007:1).

While it is notable that 52% of African dams have been constructed for irrigation purposes, 20% are used in supplying water (Ibid). Only 6% of these dams were in fact built for generating electricity (Aquastat 2007:1), yet the potential is huge and has not gone unnoticed.

For brief data on existing Ethiopian and Kenyan dams, I have used data from AQUASTAT to create the following table.

The Gibe III Dam

The Ethiopian Gibe III Omo River Dam presents huge power generation potential. Once commissioned in 2013 the dam, which will be Africa's largest dam at 240m, will produce roughly 1,870 megawatts of electricity. Ethiopia would not be alone in seeking such large volumes of hydroelectric power; more than 80% of total power generation in 18 African countries is from hydroelectricity, while this accounts for still more than 50% in 25 countries (Aquastat 2007:1). The irony is that while Ethiopia and surrounding nations ostensibly require such renewable energy resources to feed growing consumption, encourage development and push back the power cuts, the very people who benefit could be dramatically harming traditional communities. For Kenya, who are thought to have already signed an agreement back in 2006 to purchase some of the energy created, this

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might mean purchasing electricity at the expense of the lives of fellow nationals particularly in the northern reaches of Turkana.

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Dams and their uses in Ethiopia and Kenya -Aquastat (FAO)2.2 Water Control

Only 1% of African dams have been used in order to provide flood control (Aquastat 2007:1). However, this attribute is exactly one of the main positive arguments for the Gibe III Dam highlighted in regards to the downstream communities in Ethiopia and Kenya.

The Environmental Impact Assessment for the Gibe III Dam omits the fact that the Omo river supplies 80% of Lake Turkana’s waters. This figure corresponds to 20 billion cubic meters of water to Lake Turkana every year (Omondi 2009). Likewise, the intention that the dam will regulate the natural flooding cycle of the Omo River will, according to Friends of Lake Turkana,‘eliminate the seasonal floods critical to downstream farmers’. Further to this, they argue that ‘the artificial flood proposed in the EIA is ‘ill-designed to achieve its purpose’ (Angelei 2009a).

Additional concerns on release of water include:

a. ‘The minimum, environmental flow is based on the single, lowest monthly flow recorded in the driest month, since 1964’ (Angelei 2009a).

b. 'There is no mention of how long it may take to fill Gibe III’s massive reservoir, during which time dam operators may only release 25m3/ sec, creating a prolonged dry season up to several years long. As such it is noted that ‘the reservoir alone could drive Lake Turkana to the brink of ecological collapse,’(Angelei 2009a). It will take 11 billion cubic meters of water to fill the reservoir.

c. The experience of many other dams has indicated that the communities downstream have always been affected and the so called "controlled floods" [such as those planned for the Gibe III]... has not been adequate for these communities,' (Ibid.).

Friends of Lake Turkana marvel at how the EIA can argue that the dam would help restore Lake Turkana, ‘not deplete it’ (Angelei 2009a). This group of undoubtedly outraged citizens is not the only group incensed by the plans: International Rivers as well as a whole host of NGOs are passionate about what they see to be a grave injustice.

Coming from the opposite angle however is Mr John Nyaoro, the Water Ministry’s director who led Kenya’s fact finding team to Ethiopia. Mr Nyaoro announced in his press briefing in June that (generally), the water would simply just flow through the electricity generating turbines with no other effect on the flow (Omondi 2009). He simply acknowledged that the lake was receding, yet said that this was due to unrelated upstream development. The three threats he pinned to Lake Turkana were:

1. Cyclic climate change

2. Rain failure

3. Continued degradation of catchment rivers like Turkwel and Kerio. (Omondi 2009)

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The Turkwel River dam

Height: 153mRetained Water volume: 1 641 000 m3

Dam volume: 170 000 m3

Photo: Kenya Electricity Generating Co Ltd

( Janberg 2009)

While this seems a viable position, these threats are by no means overlooked by Friends of Lake Turkana. In fact, it might be argued that all of these threats simply compound the urgency of the situation. In fact they have pertained that 'The assault on the Omo River and Lake Turkana by the Gibe dam is projected to result in a drop of seven to ten meters in the lake’s depth in the first five years alone,' while 'the lake has already receded by about five to eight meters because of climate change' (Angelei 2009 Italics added for emphasis).

Adding extra credence to the urgency of the case, Mr Christopher Nakuleu, MP from the East African Legislative Assembly, led Turkana politicians in a joint statement, declaring categorically that 'Turkana, Rendile, Dassanch, Elmolo and Gabbra, who depend on the lake for food and water, would be affected' (Obare 2009).

Also outstanding in Nyaoro's statement and points above, is the mention of the catchment rivers Turkwel and Kerio. The Kerio, like the Tarach river in the district, is actually a seasonal river. By contrast the Turkwel is permanent. The extra irony here in highlighting how the continued degradation of these rivers causes a threat to Lake Turkana, is that Turkwel's history of degradation is captivated by its own damming project that few residents would be prepared to forget.

Turkwel Dam case study

After the Turkwel dam in 1990 was completed, Stave et. al (2005) are but some who have commented on the impacts of dams in this area. Their aim was to develop methods of truly measuring such change. The starting point for looking especially at the semi-arid floodplain forest ecology actually began with the following statement:

‘In the Turkwel River, north-western Kenya, fragmented discharge records reveal that the river flow regime has changed significantly after the impoundment of the Turkwel Gorge Dam in 1990,’ (Stave et. al 2005).

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It was then hypothesized that ‘the Turkwel riverine forest will experience shifts in the lateral as well as longitudinal vegetation gradients due to reductions in peak and mean flows’ (Stave et. al 2005).

Admittedly the scale and aims of the Turkwel dam and the Gibe III design differ slightly. However the fact remains that it seems that the river flows were reduced and 'changed significantly' by this much smaller dam. It is ironic that those such as W. M. Adams from The Department of Geography, University of Cambridge had similar ecological and humanitarian concerns about the initial construction of the Turkwel dam back in 1989 as the Turkana are confronted with now in the present (Adams 1989).

The human, as well as ecological price was paid for the Turkwel dam (Harden 1993: 199-200). This would support the reports from Friends of Lake Turkana who hold the rights in a Declaration to speak on this issue on the behalf of the Turkanan people. In email correspondence Ikal Angelei the founder of the movement insightly notes that 'Having experienced the negative effects of the Turkwel Dam that was built in the early eighties on the Turkwel River, the communities are in fear of another situation where there was no EIA done and …. [therefore] a situation where these communities became totally reliant on relief aid.' (Angelei 2009b)

Other dams nearby also have less than a marred reputation on water management. Lake Turkana would not be the only lake that would be affected by dam water control. Some of Africa’s biggest lakes have been affected. The iconic Lake Victoria for example has experienced major drops in water levels because too much water had been let out of dams.

Lake Victoria Case Study

Daniel Kull, a hydrological Engineer conducted a brilliant study titled the ‘Connections Between Recent Water Level Drops in Lake Victoria, Dam Operations and Drought.’ This 2006 study clearly identifies a non-adherence to the planned Agreed Curve for water release, more water than directed and has led to a sharp decrease in the water level of the lake. While this is compounded by climatic changes determining drops in water level, his study of 2004-5 argued that the severe drops were ‘45% due to drought and 55% due to over-releases from the Owen Falls Dams (Nalubaale and Kiira)’ (Kull 2006:1).

The irony here, Kull unveils, is that while over-releases were made to increase economic gains and productivity, the economic viability of Kiira is now being challenged as a result of this very action, (Kull 2006:13). By decreasing the volume of water in the Lake, the turbines will have a reduced through flow, with a corresponding reduction in hydroelectric generation.

This case study highlights the dangers to both upstream (reservoir) as well as downstream river volumes and flow posed by any artificially regulated flows.

Flood Regulation Concerns

This concern is echoed, as mentioned above, for the Gibe III dam. Rationally then, Friends of Turkana expound that the proposed artificial flood to 'mitigate the impacts that would be caused by the dam,'at a 10 day length would actually radically 'truncate' the floods which naturally would 'build gradually over several months until reaching a peak'. Ostensibly, 'the artificial flood would not reach all the areas now nurtured by annual flooding and would likely fall far short of supporting current agricultural

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productivity. The inadequacy of the artificial floods would fail to maintain the local ecology, livelihoods and economies,' says the founder (Angelei 2009a).

Indeed, the African Resources Working Group's (ARWG 2009) critique of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) says that the downstream destruction of ecological stems would not be mitigated by 'planed' flood stimulation (reservoir releases). Although this features as a 'definite' component of the Gibe III program, within Sub-Saharan Africa there has been no successful implementation of such plans. The Lake Victoria case study above is one such example. Artificial flood stimulation ceased in Pongoloa within South Africa due to pressures for irrigation, while urban electric power needs in Manantali, Senegal led to similar results.

The Cabora Basa dam in Mozambique also shows us a tragic series of events that could be relived in Turkana and elsewhere downstream of the Gibe III dam in the Omo River basin. While indeed there was some sort of diligence with downstream floods, the timing of these was horribly out of synchronization with natural flows (ARWG 2009). Indeed water was released to make room for large floods in the rainy season to prevent water running uncontrolled over the top of the dam (without also going past the turbines). As such, the water was unnaturally released in the dry seasons. Having unseasonal floods at any time has devastated crops, washing them out for example in Zambezi (Mozambique) and affecting farmers (in our case agropastoralists) and fishers alike. Similar stories come from the out of season floods caused by the Iteshi Dam in Zambia, though 'conflicting priorities' ceased any flooding altogether (ARWG 2009).

The African Resources Working Group's look at the EIA points out the irony in the repetition of numerous statements depicting the importance of downstream floods (regardless of their actual merit), with adverse effects (i.e. EIA 2008:156) while it also includes numerous disclaimers.

One of these disclaimers is on page 179 of the EIA which says that if annual release doesn't succeed as scheduled, some other compensation measures could be implemented including....conflict prevention and resolution training programs' (EIA 2008:179). It is surely outrageous that the potential conflicts caused by the dam are recognized to this magnitude and as a real possibility and yet still the project continues. Indeed there are many other qualifications and 'potential interventions'(EIA 2008:178,169) that might need to happen in lieu of the regulated flood deliverance as noted in the Assessment.

If complete confidence in the deliverance of already inadequate artificial floods cannot be obtained, conflict prevention and resolution programs seem to be pitiful side thoughts if put in context to the certain direct impact of more than 200,000 lives downstream. As noted, the EIA does not neglect recognition of the importance of these floods in fact it acknowledges this at various stages.

Indeed, the EIA was carried out in 2008 when the project commenced in 2006.This post hoc creation undoubtedly speaks to the inadequate provisions and thought for protecting downstream communities and the ecosystem in which they live.

2.3 Impacts

2.3.1 Cessation of recession cultivation

While the EIA notes that there is a rain fed cultivation alternative to recession cultivation, this is also not so. According to the ARWG (2009) paper, there is no real rain fed cultivation alternative, especially not at any sort of level that might support the livelihood of the thousands of agropastoralists

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which are 'directly dependent' on this recession cultivation, otherwise known as flood retreat cultivation.

This misunderstanding might seem small, but this omission and others are of huge consequences for the people living in the Turkana region.

2.3.2 Riverine Forest devastation

As noted in Section I, these forests are essential for pastoralism, which in turn seems to be essential in bolstering economic survival if only at a subsistence level in Turkana. Any change in water flow would affect the ecosystem, but a projected 57% to 60% reduction in river flow volume estimated by the African Resources Working Group would clearly destroy these areas. Indeed the same paper notes that at conservative estimates at least 125 sq km of riparian forest would be 'eliminated', expanding to 290 sq km if closed canopy and woodland is included (ARWG 2009).

These forests are not only critical for human activities, but are prized ecologically as ‘Pristine forest’. Their devastation would be a huge loss, along with its biodiversity.

To add to these ranks, those fishing in Lake Turkana would be drastically affected as fish stocks would have to face an increased salinity of the Lake projected at 146%, in addition to the projected 10 meter drop in lake Turkana waters; a third of the water, (ARWG 2009).

2.3.3 Lake Turkana Ecosystem

In the fishing case studies and investigation in Section 1, it is noted how the Dam would directly affect the Lake in terms of the ecosystem, water table and as a consequence the human population.

The Lacustrine habitat2 and its accompanying ecosystem are delicate, and widely valued.

Lake Turkana was in fact designated as a World Heritage site in 1997 and its reach was expanded in 2001. This UNESCO World Heritage classification is under the natural criteria (viii) and (x) under the category of Natural Landscape and River/Lake. Lake Turkana is in fact specifically known for the migratory birds which stop there, as well as a being a breeding ground for the Nile crocodile, hippopotamus, snakes and many other inhabitants which include roughly 47 different specifies of fish (UNESCO 2009).

Also of interest for many, is how Professor Richard Leaky has popularized the lake due to unearthing fossils in the Koobi Fora deposits. These are believed to be unique in the world. Anthropologically then, the Lake is also prized.

2.3.4 Water well and watering holes

In terms of the water table, in the dry season many of the standard shallow wells run dry. If the water table drops in tandem with Lake Turkana dropping as the Omo river's water supply decreases, these wells might permanently run dry. This would therefore undo much of the previous life saving efforts to bring clean and available water to those in the semi-desert as noted in Section I.

2 Lacustrine habitats are generally seen as inland depressions or dammed riverine channels containing standing water.

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The ARWG (2009) paper argues that a drop of 10-12 meters of lake level is a very realistic projected figure seeing that the Omo River supplies around 90% of the lakes input. In fact, a 5 meter drop alone would drastically damage the ecosystem, sharply rising salinity and causing a large retreat in the Lake. Additionally, through a possible 50-75% leakage of the reservoir waters due to fractures in the basalt at the site, large quantities of water would be lost to the Omo river system downstream, including lake Turkana and its effect on the water table overall.

Likewise, traditional watering spots for livestock would be lost since there would be increasingly steep slopes to river access and bank erosion after large dam construction upstream. This has been seen in Kenya, Ethiopia and other places in Africa according to the ARWG (2009).

2.3.5 Conflict

As anticipated by the EIA itself, conflict could be spurred in this region by the dam. Since most of the consequences seem more of a certainly than a possibility, the outlook is horrific. Faced with massive economic losses for those already vulnerable, widespread hunger and disease circumstances would be desperate. The ARWG paper actually notes that these are guaranteed symptoms if the Gibe III dam, which began to be built in 2006, is completed. The competition over shrinking resources makes conflict for survival almost inevitable. The March 2009 BBC news documentary Our World: 'Power Rules' supports this finding through many academic and resident interviews and investigation (Cheeseman 2009).

Map of the Ilemi Triangle Showing the Omo River.

Adding extra ammunition to the bleak outlook is the geopolitical situation regarding the disputed nature of the Ilemi Triangle between Kenya, Ethiopia and Sudan (see map below from Mburu 2003:26).Though Kenya now has de facto control the dispute is not fully resolved. Within this area and that close to it, land and tribal disputes are common to this day. Seeing that the traditional method of restocking livestock was to steal in raids, competition over resources is treacherous and a reality. Many residents are heavily armed and unafraid to use fire power (ARWG 2009). Pastoralists and agropastoralists alike would be drastically affected by the Dam.

This map is found in the paper Mburu (2003:26)

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2.4 Additional concerns

Additional controversy can be seen as political in light of the uncompetitive contract for Gibe III Dam. A similar controversy blemished the Turkwel dam in the 1980's which some say cost over double what it could have (Harden 1993: 209).

Indeed, as noted in the BBC 'Power Rules' documentary (Cheeseman 2009), the usual way of going about building a dam is in the order:

a) Study the impact on the environment

b) Find the financial backing

c) Call for competitive tenure

However, in this case, the sequence of events was:

c) Tenure decided, but the contract was not competitive

b) Finding of financial backing: the search is still ongoing to cover the complete costs

a) An Environmental Impact Assessment 2 years after construction began

2.5 Funding decisions

At the time of writing, the EIB, which funded the Gibe I and Gibe II dams, has withdrawn from funding the project, while the African Development Bank has taken another approach.

On the one hand, the EIB's statement highlighted that 'the Euro 1.55 billion hydropower dam would devastate the ecosystems of Ethiopia's Lower Omo Valley and Kenya's Lake Turkana' (Afrol News 2009).

On the other hand, according to the AfDB's own policies on 'environmental and social assessment, poverty reduction, resettlement, public disclosure, and trans-boundary water management', Terri Hathaway, the International Rivers' Africa director says that funding Gibe III would be considered a 'violation' of these stipulations (Afrol News 2009). In regards to the imperative of consultation for example, just 94 people were interviewed in Ethiopia and none in Kenya. This standard cannot be met.

Hathaway then went further arguing persuasively that 'donors should not fund through the AfDB what they are not prepared to fund through the EIB' (Afrol News 2009). Angelei (2009a) has noted likewise that while the World Bank refused explicit funding, it might consider providing through loan guarantees.

Other Potential financial backers noted in Angelei (2009a) for the project include:• The Italian Government • Agence Francaise de Dévelopement• Germany’s aid agency KFW • And the Development Bank of Southern Africa for the transmission line to Kenya’s national

grid.

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P Morgan Chase are said to have withdrawn due to the economic crisis. It remains to be seen at the time of research the decisions of these other potential backers.

Conclusion

This research supports the assertions that the Gibe III dam 's completion will intensify the vulnerabilities of the people within the Turkana region. This stands to undermine not only pastoralism, agro-pastoralism and cultivation, but also other sustainable development prospects in the area due to the dual threats to both water access for humans and cattle alike, and the ecological balance.

The threat to livestock livelihoods is critical to highlight since traditionally pastoralism has been the 'most viable subsistence system' (Critchley 1991b) in the area with knowledge of traditional adaptive methods that many other livelihoods lack in this harsh climate. Continued pressures undermining this traditional livelihood could have drastic economic, humanitarian and social repercussions (the latter lesson can be seen in the NORAD fishing case-study for example). Through the analysis of many Turkana livelihood diversification projects, it has been shown to be imperative to take at least the legacy of pastoralism extremely seriously. Tragically it is just these essential livelihoods and their sustainability along with the provision of basic necessities that are under threat by the Gibe III dam.

Through undermining livelihoods, residents will be forced into a raw new season in the struggle for survival as the naked truth of infrastructural scarcity, harsh natural environment and the unstable reality of conflict becomes harder to endure. Indeed an estimated 300,000 people depend on the waters of Lake Turkana either directly or indirectly for their survival.

Respect for the Gibe III’s EIA has no doubt been undermined by its curious post hoc development, in addition to many glaring omissions and even shocking acknowledgements that conflict resolution might be needed if the planned floods do not go ahead,(regardless of their innately inadequate nature). Indeed the Environmental and Social Impact document seems unlikely to be a fully balanced and considered assessment- it is highly contested. The justifications upon which the Gibe III dam is based should then be reconsidered by those managing the projects themselves and those who are to potentially fund the development.

There is no doubt that electricity is needed in Ethiopia, nor that Kenya would benefit from buying some, but this acknowledgement does not necessarily mean that the way in which this scheme has been brought about or designed is warranted. Other alternatives are under investigation for power generation, including harnessing the power of the unrelenting Turkana winds. On many accounts the Gibe III dam design and stages of development, such as the non-competitive contract, have all been rushed.

On careful consideration, the International Community should investigate this case thoroughly and bring to account the project's inconsistent development agenda- development at the cost of humanitarian and ecological destruction. This 'development' surely conflicts with the international community's golden rule of sustainability by instead increasing vulnerability, destitution and possible conflict in Turkana and neighboring regions.

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Stave Jørn, Gufy Oba and Nils Chr Stenseth 2001, ‘Temporal changes in woody-plant use and the ekwar indigenous tree management system along the Turkwel River, Kenya.’ Environmental Conservation Vol. 28 No. 2 pp.150–159 Available online at: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=80055 Accessed August 2009

Stave, Jørn , Gufu Oba Nils Chr. Stenseth and Inger Nordal 2005, ‘Environmental gradients in the Turkwel riverine forest, Kenya: hypotheses on dam-induced vegetation change.’ Forest Ecology and Management Volume 212, Issues 1-3, 1 July 2005, pp. 184-198

Stave, Jørn  Gufu Oba, Inger Nordal and Nils Chr Stenseth, 2007 ‘Traditional Ecological Knowledge of a Riverine Forest in Turkana, Kenya: Implications for Research and Management’ Biodiversity and Conservation Vol. 26 No.5 (May 2007) pp.1471-1489 Available online at: http://www.springerlink.com/content/9007v75ph33p7p74/ Accessed August 2009

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Warren, Andrew 1995, ‘Changing understandings of African pastoralism and the nature of environmental paradigms’ Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, New Series Vol. 20 No. 2 (1995) pp. 193-107

Watson, David J and Joep Van Binsbergen 2008 ‘Livestock Market Access and Opportunities in Turkana, Kenya’ International Livestock Research Institute, DFID and Veterinaires Sans Frontier Belgium Research Report No. 3 Available online at: http://www.ilri.org/Infoserv/webpub/Fulldocs/LivestockMarketAccess_RR3/MarketAccessTurkana_RR3.pdf Accessed July 09

Watson, DJ and J van Binsbergen,2008 ‘Livelihood diversification opportunities for pastoralists in Turkana, Kenya’ International Livestock Research Institute Research Report No. 5 Available online at: http://www.ilri.org/Infoserv/webpub/fulldocs/LivelihoDiversi_ResRepo5/PastoralistsTurk%20_RRep5.pdf Accessed July 2009

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Documentary

Cheeseman, David eds. 2009 Our World: 'Power Rules' BBC news channel documentary Available online at: http://turkanabasin.org/multimedia/video and many other online sources, Accessed July 2009

Pictures

Janberg, Nicolas , ‘Turkwel Dam’, webpage: Structurae Available online at: http://en.structurae.de/structures/data/index.cfm?id=s0009251 Accessed July 2009

Other pictures are from personal friends:Nadia Alexandrou and Adam Whatton.

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