tuesday dec 2nd topic # 13 global warming wrap up topic ... · topic # 13 global warming wrap up...
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Tuesday Dec 2nd
TOPIC # 13 Global Warming Wrap Up
TOPIC #14 IMPACTS & ISSUES
SIT WITH YOUR GROUP TODAY
ANNOUNCEMENTS:
LINKING-TO-LIFE PROJECT
PART A – Your Ecological Footprint DUE in class TODAY!
PART B – GC Film & Video Commentaries - Due TONIGHT
before midnight – or at the latest no later than Dec 3rd
PART C – Project SLIDE & REPORT
Slide: Due Tue Dec 9th in the dropbox before class.
Report: Due Wed Dec 10th in the dropbox before Midnight
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TOPIC # 13
GLOBAL WARMING &
ANTHROPOGENIC
FORCING
WRAP UP!
Class Notes pp 85
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NATURAL FORCING
ANTHROPOGENIC
FORCING
Surface
Albedo Changes
GHG’s,
soot, SO2
Solar output
variations,
sunspots
Volcanic
eruptions
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In addition to the “Natural -
Archive – Paleo” Approach,
COMPUTER MODELS have
been created to estimate the
radiative forcings of the PAST!
On top of p 89
in Class Notes
[graphs from
Dire Predictions p 81]
Estimates
Of Natural &
Human
Impacts On
Climate
Over The
Past 1000
Years
COOLING
WARMING
WARMING
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MODELED TEMPERATURE based on
NATURAL FORCING ONLY:
Models
cannot
reproduce
the
observed
temperature
trend since
~ 1980
NO GH Gases
Volcanism + Solar only
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MODELED TEMPERATURE based on
NATURAL + ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING
With GH Gases
Volcanism + Solar +
GH Gases
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Volcanic eruption
years
Observations
Average of all model runs
“Spaghetti Plate” of Model results:
58 runs of 14 different models
MODELED TEMPERATURE based on
NATURAL + ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING
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That’s what the COMPUTER MODELS say . . . .
What is the EARTH ITSELF
telling us about how it s TEMPERATURE is changing?
p 90
LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
MARINE AIR TEMPERATURE
Troposphere
Temp
Ocean
Heat Content
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SOURCE: IPCC 2007 WG-1 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers p 89
2007 IPCC Report
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2013
IPCC
Report
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p 89
Individual Region Model Runs showed the same results!
2007
IPCC
Report
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2013
IPCC Report
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p 90
WHAT ELSE
IS CHANGING?
SEA LEVEL INCREASING
SUMMER ARCTIC SEA-ICE
DECREASING
Glaciers on
land losing ice
Snow
cover decreasing
Humidity
increasing
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p 91
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What else tells us that the Anthropogenically enhanced
GreenHouse Effect is responsible for recent change?
Can you link the indicators in the figure with processes we’ve covered
this semester that are linked to an ANTHROPOGENIC influence? p 92
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1. 30 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted into the
atmosphere per year:
2. Less heat escaping to space
at the top of the atmosphere:
3. More heat returning to Earth:
4. Rising tropopause:
5. Cooling stratosphere:
Can you link the indicators in the figure with processes we’ve
covered this semester that are linked to an Anthropogenic
influence?
p 92
Keeling curve
Greenhouse Warming
Signature
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TOPIC #14
CLIMATE CHANGE:
IMPACTS & ISSUES –
THE IPCC FINDINGS
& WHAT LIES AHEAD
p 93 in Class Notes
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There is a paradoxical gulf between the
importance of Earth’s climate and the level
of public interest in it . . . .
We’re in the middle of a large uncontrolled
experiment on the only planet we have.
- Donald Kennedy
editor-in-chief of the journal Science
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From Self test 8
From 2001 IPCC:
Past & Future Earth’s Surface
Temperature in one graph
(departures from 1990 value)
Continually
improving
“Hockey
Stick” (from 2001 Third
Assessment)
Spaghetti
Plate
GLOBAL
SURFACE
TEMPERATURE
CHANGE
( C)
(compared to
1990 value)
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From Dire Predictions ( p 20)
GLOBAL
SURFACE
TEMPERATURE
CHANGE
( C)
Compared to
1980-1999
period
Updated
version in
AR4:
2007 IPCC
FOURTH
ASSESSMENT
REPORT
Starts in 1900
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“The Illustrated Guide to
the findings of the IPCC”
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From Dire Predictions ( p 88)
RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRAJECTORIES
FOR FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE
B1 = “BEST”
(Global Utopia)
A1B = “Middle of
the Road”
A2 = “BUSINESS
AS USUAL”
(Divided World)
CO2 in ATMOSPHERE (due to emissions)
RESULTING WARMING:
TEMPERATURE INCREASE
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p 95
The TABLE below shows
the computer model
estimates of temperature
change for each of the
scenarios on
this graph
We are already on a path
that is close to the A2
scenario or WORSE!!
This is much faster than
was expected when the 2007
IPCC first came out!
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From Dire Predictions ( p 20)
GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE ( C)
2 C = climate
impact “benchmark”
2013
REPORT
Future Temperature Change
Projections:
2007 REPORT
Class
Notes p 93
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GHG EMISSIONS RADIATIVE FORCING TEMPERATURE
How are “FUTURE PROJECTIONS” made?
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review SOURCE: IPCC 2007 WG-1 Synthesis Report Summary for Policymakers
More accurate assessment of magnitude of
individual RADIATIVE FORCINGS :
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IPCC REPORTS 2007 vs 2013 2007
levels
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NEW: A time comparison of
TOTAL ANTHROPOGENIC
FORCING!
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2013 REPORT: Projected RADIATIVE FORCING
based on 4 NEW & DIFFFERENT Emissions Scenarios
WORST = RCP 8.5
BEST = RCP 2.6
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Two FUTURE SCENARIOS FROM THE 2013 REPORT:
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The most comprehensive source of information on Global Climate Change -- the IPCC
• Established by World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) and the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) in 1988 as an objective source of
information for decision-makers, etc.
“to provide the world with a clear scientific
view on the current state of climate change
and its potential environmental and socio-
economic consequences” (IPCC 2007)
• The IPCC does not conduct any research on its own,
nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.
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• Its role is to assess on a
comprehensive, objective,
open and transparent basis the
latest scientific, technical and socio-
economic literature produced
worldwide relevant to the
understanding of:
• the risk of human induced
climate change
• its observed and projected
impacts and
• options for adaptation and
mitigation.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm#1
1991 FAR
1995 SAR
2001
TAR
2007
AR4
Began with:
The “First Assessment
Report” (FAR) in 1991
Most recent:
“Assessment Report 5”
(AR5) in 2013 (parts of it are still coming out)
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• The IPCC is a scientific body
• Thousands of scientists from all over the
world contribute to the work of the IPCC on a
voluntary basis.
• PEER REVIEW is an essential part of the
IPCC process, to ensure an objective and
complete assessment of current information.
• Differing viewpoints existing within the
scientific community are reflected in the
IPCC reports.
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• The IPCC is an intergovernmental body, and it
is open to all member countries of UN and WMO.
• Because of its scientific and intergovernmental
nature, the IPCC embodies a unique opportunity
to provide rigorous and balanced scientific
information to decision makers.
• By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments
acknowledge the authority of their scientific
content.
• The work of the organization is therefore policy-
relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-
prescriptive.
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The IPCC has 3 “working groups,” a Task Force (and various other subcommittees):
Working Group I (WGI):
Physical Science of climate and climate change.
Working Group II (WGII):
People & Climate – Impacts, Vulnerability of
people and natural systems to climate change, &
Adaptation options)
Working Group III (WGIII):
Mitigation - options for limiting GHG emissions
Plus: A Task Force that oversees
the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Program
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Small, low income, vulnerable people & nations:
They are least responsible,
yet likely to be impacted the most!
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Estimates of confidence in the report’s results /
conclusions:
• virtually certain (greater than 99% chance that a
result is true)
• very likely (90-99% chance);
• likely (66-90% chance);
• medium likelihood (33-66% chance);
• unlikely (10-33% chance);
• very unlikely (1-10% chance);
• exceptionally unlikely (less than 1%) chance).
What was NEW in the most recent reports:
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• Over most land areas:
HOT DAYS & NIGHTS will be WARMER;
and MORE FREQUENT
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN 99%
Recurrence Interval = measure of frequency
An event happening “once in 50 years”
in the future, might happen “once in 10 years”
(or have a “1 in 10” chance of occurring in any year)
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VERY LIKELY 90%
• the RATE of increase of GHG’s will be
UNPRECEDENTED in past 10,000 yrs
• Frequency of HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EVENTS will INCREASE
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LIKELY 66%
• Extreme HIGH SEA LEVEL events will increase
• SUBTROPICS ( that’s us!) will experience
PRECIPITATION DECLINE
• Stratospheric cooling ozone hole persistence
even WITH ban of CFC’s!
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AS LIKELY AS NOT 35 - 50%
• W. ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET MELTING (if Temp > 5º C)
• ANTARCTIC & GREENLAND ICE SHEETS COLLAPSE
UNLIKELY 35%
VERY UNLIKELY10%
• GLOBAL TEMPERATURES will rise by
LESS than 1.5º C (if CO2 stabilizes at 2x)
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p 94 1C 2C 3C 4C 5C
Examples of IMPACTS associated with global average annual temperature change
(relative to 1980-1999 average temperature)
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p 95
ADAPTATION & MITIGATION
SOLUTIONS
POLICIES & POSSIBLE ACTIONS
to SLOW
GLOBAL WARMING . . .
& ADAPT to the warming we
can’t prevent!
So what do we do about all of these impacts???
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MITIGATION
vs
ADAPTATION ?
p 95
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Mitigation: intervention to reduce anthropogenic
Forcing on the climate system through:
(a) strategies to
reduce GHG emissions
(b) strategies to
enhance GHG sinks
MITIGATION
planting trees
p 95
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ADAPTATION: Adjustments made in
response to (or anticipation of) CLIMATIC
IMPACTS in order to:
(a) Lessen or reduce harm
(b) take advantage of
beneficial opportunities
ADAPTATION
Should this house be rebuilt?
Home in Union Beach NJ after
“Sandy”
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http://unfccc.int/meeti
ngs/lima_dec_2014/
meeting/8141.php
Going on at this
very moment . . .
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http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/were-kidding-
ourselves-2-degree-global-warming-limit-experts-n257006
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http://www.nbcnews.
com/science/environ
ment/were-kidding-
ourselves-2-degree-
global-warming-
limit-experts-
n257006
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https://greenpeace.app.box.com/s/b0j7gpnlokfn1132p8j9/1/2731042634/23448347971/1
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Class Notes pp 85
HOW TO MITIGATE FOR FOOTPRINTS!
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Several MITIGATION
SOLUTIONS were
described in:
“Let a thousand
flowers bloom”.
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More
MITIGATING
SOLUTIONS
in this film. . .
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= factors that lead
to increasing
accumulation of
CO2 in atmosphere
= factors that HUMANS
can adjust to influence
the : factors
EXAMPLE OF MITIGATION PROCESS
SOLUTION
FACTORS!
PROBLEM
FACTORS!
p 95
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In TUCSON,
on 4th Avenue
MITIGATION. .
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GROUP FOOTPRINT
CHALLENGE!!!
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TASK #1:
REMOVE ALL YOUR
GRADED MATERIAL
FROM THE FOLDERS!
They are about to
burst!
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TASK #2:
FILL OUT THE
FORM IN YOUR
FOLDER &
DISCUSS YOUR
RESULTS
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Mitigation & Adaption
to be continued . . . .