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PLO Postflop Theory

Video # 2: Betting the Flop

By Tom “LearnedfromTV” Chambers

with Brian Townsend

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Review: The Parameters of a Postflop Situation#1 – Number of Players

#2 - Position

#3 – Stack to Pot Ratio (SPR)

#4 – Initiative and Leverage

#5 – Board Texture

#6 – Opponent Tendencies

#7 – Image

These aren’t listed in order of importance, but from most quantifiable to least quantifiable.

Generally, it is easiest to define broad classes of postflop situation based on the first three, the first five can be used together to build default strategies for specific common situations, and the final two determine how to adjust default strategies to account for table dynamic.

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Situation Classes-Below are sixteen of the most common flop scenarios, classified in terms of number of opponents, SPR, position, and preflop initiative, each of which are easily quantifiable and can be split into two main possibilities.

Class # of opponents SPR Position Preflop Initiative

1a Heads-up Single-raised (9-15) OOP Raiser

1b Heads-up Single-raised (9-15) IP Raiser

1c Heads-up Single-raised (9-15) OOP Caller

1d Heads-up Single-raised (9-15) IP Caller

2a Multi-way Single-raised (6-10) OOP Raiser

2b Multi-way Single-raised (6-10) IP Raiser

2c Multi-way Single-raised (6-10) OOP Caller

2d Multi-way Single-raised (6-10) IP Caller

3a Heads-up Three-bet (3-6) OOP Raiser

3b Heads-up Three-bet (3-6) IP Raiser

3c Heads-up Three-bet (3-6) OOP Caller

3d Heads-up Three-bet (3-6) IP Caller

4a Multi-way Three-bet (1.5-4) OOP Raiser

4b Multi-way Three-bet (1.5-4) IP Raiser

4c Multi-way Three-bet (1.5-4) OOP Caller

4d Multi-way Three-bet (1.5-4) IP Caller

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Review: Board Texture- Two-Axis System for categorizing the texture of unpaired flops. One, a spectrum from dry to wet, reflecting how draw-heavy a board is. Two, a spectrum from heavy to light, reflecting how hard people’s ranges hit the top of the possible hands on a given texture.

Wetness --->

Heaviness Wet Medium-Wet Medium-Dry Dry

Heavy AT9s, QT6s, KQTs AQ9s, KT2s, QJ8r KQ8r, QJ6r, QJTr AK9r, AJ5r, 987r

Average K76s, J93s, T96s K74s, JT4r, 654s A86r, Q75r, T86r A95r, K84r, 865r

Light T43s, 964s, 763s J53s, 984r, 542s T63r, 863r, 764r J73r, 832r, 542r

Very Dynamic Dynamic Static Very Static

Wet/Heavy Wet/Light Dry/Light Dry/Heavy

Wet/Average Medium-Wet/Average Medium-Dry/Average Dry/Average

Medium-Wet/Heavy Medium-Wet/Light Medium-Dry/Light Medium-Dry/Heavy

Paired (Medium-Dry) Paired (Dry)

Monotone

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Essential Concepts

-- Making a Plan. Any flop action other than folding is a decision to accept a range of future contingencies; different turn/river cards, different opponent actions. It is important to be prepared for every possibility, to know whether to stack off if raised, to know what the good double-barrel cards are, to know which turns we’ll check behind a hand with equity, etc.

- The Purpose of a Bet. There are many possible reasons to bet in poker (for value, as a semi-bluff, as a bluff, to set up a double barrel, to prevent being bluffed/manipulate an opponent’s options, for information, etc.). Most of the time multiple purposes coexist in the same bet. Nearly every PLO flop bet is partially a form of semi-bluff because it is very hard to have no equity and very hard to have a hand that will be strong on every turn/river.

-Bet Sizing. The best bet size is primarily a function of board texture and SPR. They key is to understand how the turn contingencies will play out following different bet sizes – what SPR is being set up, how elastic are the opponent’s calling/raising ranges, what are the possible turn textures?

-Building Balanced Ranges. Some people have the impression that game theoretical balance is only about having a proper value/bluff ratio. When hand values are static (on the river), this is true, but on earlier streets there is a much more important way to look at balance. A flop betting range is balanced if it properly anticipates the different turn and river possibilities. In other words, flop balance leads to turn balance leads to river balance.

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Heads-up, Single-raised (SPR 9-15) Basic Assumptions about Play Dynamic

- The preflop raiser’s most common action is to bet.

- When the preflop caller is OOP, his most common action is to check.

-Key Questions

- When should the preflop raiser check?

- When should the (OOP) preflop caller lead into the raiser?

- How should the (IP) preflop caller react to the raiser checking?

- How should c-bet frequency differ IP versus OOP?

-Continuation Bet Frequency/Size Generalizations

- Very Dynamic (AT9s, KT2s, T96s, etc) – Frequency ~ 60%-75%, size ~75%-100% of pot.

- Dynamic (K74s, J53s, 763s, etc) – Frequency ~ 70%-80%, size ~70%-90% of pot.

- Static (A86r, J73r, 886s, etc) – Frequency ~ 80%-90%, size ~65%-80% of pot.

- Very Static (AK9r, K84r, Q55r, etc) – Frequency ~ 90%+, size ~60%-75% of pot.

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Multi-way, Single-raised (SPR 6-10) Basic Assumptions about Play Dynamic

-- In a three-way pot there is less of a link between who raised preflop and who will bet the flop, but the link is still there. In a pot with 4+ players it is basically non-existent.

-- An air or near-air bluff bet against fit-or-fold opponents is much less likely to be profitable than in heads-up pots, especially on more dynamic boards where it is very likely at least one player hit the board hard.

-- It is important to pay attention to whether we will likely be IP or OOP on the turn and river. Contrast being second to act of four with two loose players behind and being second of three with a tight player behind and a loose player in front.

-- When OOP the goal is to play for maximum comfort on the later streets – build nutty ranges as often as possible; look to make turn-river decisions easier with non-nutty hands.

-When in position, the goal is to maximize opponent’s discomfort; build pots in which it is easy to apply pressure on turn and river; use the option to check behind with turn-dependent hands to frustrate opponents who want to check-raise and will face awkward turns with much of their check-raising range.

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Multi-way, Single-raised (SPR 6-10)-Key Questions

- In early position as a preflop caller, when is it best to check to the raiser with a strong hand? When is it best to bet? What kind of medium-strength hands belong in a leading range?

- In later position (as raiser or caller), when to bet medium strength hands that cannot call a raise but will play well against a check-call?

-- How to use blockers to aid in building the bottom of a betting range?

Continuation Bet Frequency/Size Generalizations

-- Very Dynamic (AT9s, KT2s, T96s, etc) – Frequency ~ 25%-40%, size ~90%-100% of pot.

-- Dynamic (K74s, J53s, 763s, etc) – Frequency ~ 30%-45%, size ~80%-100% of pot.

-- Static (A86r, J73r, 886s, etc) – Frequency ~ 35%-50%, size ~75%-85% of pot.

-- Very Static (AK9r, K84r, Q55r, etc) – Frequency ~40%-60%, size ~70%-80% of pot.

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Discussion Examples: Single-raised

Flop JhTc6h KsQdTs 7s6s2h Jc7h3d Jc9h7d Qh5c5hHand 1 AhJdTs7s JcTd9h8s QsQd6h5h Jh9d8c6h KhQdJs8s AcAd7h6sHand 2 Ah7h5s4s QcQs7d6c Ah9h8c7d 8d7h6h5d JsTh9s3h 8c7h6d5dHand 3 KcQd9s6c As9h8s7c 5s5c4s3c QcQdTh9s TcTd9s6c AcQsJd3sHand 4 KhQdJs5s AsKdQc3d AdJc7d6c AcJd6c5d QhJd8h6s Ah8h7c6dHand 5 9s8h7s6c Qs9s9h8h AhAsTh8c KcKd8h8s KcKdTs5d KhJhTc9cHand 6 Ac9h8h3c KdJsJc3d Ac8c5d4d AcQcJhTh AhKhJs7s JdTh8c7s

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Headsup, Three-bet (SPR 2-6) Basic Assumptions about Play Dynamic

-- SPR info - Pot-repot with 100bb effective and neither player in the blinds leads to an SPR of ~3.6. If one or both are in the blinds, the raise or reraise is less than full-pot, and/or stacks are deeper than 100BB the SPR is in the 4-6 range. When there are limpers or cold-callers who fold to the three-bet, their dead money increases the raise sizes and sends the SPR down to 2-3.

-- Most of the time the preflop reraiser will continuation bet, the preflop caller will either shove or fold. This is especially true at the lower end of the SPR range.

-- As discussed in Video #1, the key to three-bet pots is the middle and upper-middle of ranges, and having pair + draw and combo draw hands that dominate other similar hands is very important.

Three-bet Range Composition

-5% range is usually AA**-heavy, containing ~2% AA**, ~1% KK**, ~1%-2% strong broadway, ~0%-1% lower rundowns. Some people with 4%-6% three-bet have a deceptive strategy of usually flatting AA** and three-betting a wider range of rundowns. They essentially have the 8% range listed below minus the big pairs.

-- 8% range is more balanced between big pairs and unpaired hands, and typically includes the majority of AA** hands (~2%), somewhere between one third to two thirds of KK** hands (1%-1.5%), ~2%-3% strong broadway, and ~2%-3% middle/near-broadway rundowns, heavily weighted to double-suitedness.

-- 12% range is usually the 8% range plus additional semi-connectors like QJ96ds along with more of the KK**-hands.

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Headsup, Three-bet (SPR 2-6)-Key Questions

- When should the preflop raiser check?

- When should the (OOP) preflop caller lead into the raiser?

- How should the (IP) preflop caller react to the raiser checking?

- How should c-bet frequency differ IP versus OOP?

Continuation Bet Frequency/Size Generalizations

-- Very Dynamic (AT9s, KT2s, T96s, etc) – Frequency ~ 60%-70%, size ~75%-90% of pot.

- Dynamic (K74s, J53s, 763s, etc) – Frequency ~ 60%-80%, size ~70%-90% of pot.

- Static (A86r, J73r, 886s, etc) – Frequency ~ 70%-80%, size ~60%-75% of pot.

- Very Static (AK9r, K84r, Q55r, etc) – Frequency ~ 80%-90%, size ~50%-70% of pot.

-Compared with single-raised heads-up pots these are slightly lower frequencies and slightly lower bet sizes.

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Multi-way, Three-bet (SPR 1.5-4)-This section doesn’t follow the same structure as the previous three because multi-way three-bet pots are almost exclusively about correctly assessing commitment thresholds. At these SPRs 40%-45% equity is needed to stack off assuming no fold equity.

-There will be a lot of (particularly dynamic board) cases where it is very unlikely both/all opponents fold to a bet. The chance that 2/3 or 2/4 players hit Qs9d6s with at least a decent pair + draw is high.

-- Consequently, it is important to focus on domination within the pair + draw/combo draw equity hierarchy. Specifically , beware of getting stacks in with single-component hands that don’t do their one thing extremely well.

-On dynamic boards in single-raised pots, this meant caution with hands like bare top two, bare bottom set, bare non-nut wraps, bare non-nut flush draws. In three-bet pots the extra overlay drives the caution line down further; trouble hands include bare top and bottom, bare open enders, weak flush draws, weak combo hands like bottom pair + weak draw or two weak draws together.

-In a heads-up three-bet pot, a hand like Kc9s8h7s is probably doing fine against one opponent range on Qs9c6s; certainly well enough to shove over a c-bet with reasonable fold equity. But in a 3-4 way pot there is a much greater chance of draw domination.