Tsao Waide Saunders ∙ Rebound Effect for Lighting ∙ USAEE/IAEE NA Conference ∙ Dec 2008

The Rebound Effect:An Analysis of the Empirical Data for Lighting

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy’s National Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Jeff Tsao (Sandia National Laboratories)Paul Waide (International Energy Agency)

Harry Saunders (Decision Processes Incorporated)

1 Consumption of2 Affordability of3 Relationship between

White Light

RYGBLight Emitting

Diodes

Color Mixing Optics

Solid-State Lighting

Decades-to-Centuries Rebound Effect

Tsao Waide Saunders ∙ Rebound Effect for Lighting ∙ USAEE/IAEE NA Conference ∙ Dec 2008

per capita Consumption of Light:φ (Mlmh/[per-yr])

Earth at Night (courtesy of NASA)

MillsWRLD-NONGRID 1999: 0.043

IEAWRLD-GRID 2005: 32.9

Fouquet & PearsonUK2000 Inc+Flu+HID: 46.41950 Inc: 5.01900 Gas+Ker: 0.271850 Gas+Can: 0.0131800 Can+Oil: 0.00271750 Can: 0.00061700 Can: 0.00058

IEAAU+NZ 2005: 63.4

IEAFSU 2000: 38.7

IEAOECD-EU 2005: 45.9

IEAJP+KR 2005: 71.9

CNLi 2006: 16.4IEA 2005: 13.4Mills 1993: 2.7

NavigantUS 2001: 136

Tsao Waide Saunders ∙ Rebound Effect for Lighting ∙ USAEE/IAEE NA Conference ∙ Dec 2008

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1.E+04

1.E+05

1.E+06

0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000

1.E-02

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Cost of Light:CoL ($/Mlmh) ≃

CoE/η

1 101 102 103 104 105

CoE ($/MWh)

Lu

min

ou

s e

fficacy

η (

lm/W

)

10-2

100%Efficiency

10-1

1

101

102

103

1

101

102

103104

105

CN 1993

WRLD-NONGRID1999

WRLD-GRID 2005

UK 1800

UK 1850

UK 1750

UK 1700

UK 1900

UK 1950UK 2000AU+NZ 2005

FSU 2000 OECD-EU 2005JP+KR 2005

CN 2005CN 2006

US 2001

10-3 10-2 10-1 1 101 102

N (Bper)

GD

P (

B$/y

r)

101

102

103

CN 1993

WRLD-NONGRID1999

WRLD-GRID 2005

UK 1800UK 1850

UK 1750UK 1700

UK 1900UK 1950

UK 2000AU+NZ 2005 FSU

2000

OECD-EU 2005

JP+KR 2005

CN 2006US 2001

CN 2005104

105

106

103

104105

After Maddison and Univ of Groningen purchase-power-

parity tabulations,in 2005 US$

101.5

102.8

104.3

101.4

per capitagross domestic product:gdp ($/[per-yr]) = GDP/N

Tsao Waide Saunders ∙ Rebound Effect for Lighting ∙ USAEE/IAEE NA Conference ∙ Dec 2008

φ = β·(gdp/CoL)

1.E-05

1.E-02

1.E+01

1.E+04

1.E-05 1.E-02 1.E+01 1.E+0410-5 10-2 101 104

β·gdp/CoL [Mlmh/(per-yr)]

φ [

Mlm

h/(

per

-yr)

]

104

101

10-2

10-5

CN 1993

WRLD-UNDEV 1999

WRLD-DEV 2005

UK 1800 UK 1850

UK 1750UK 1700

UK 1900

UK 1950

UK 2000

AU+NZ 2005

FSU 2000

OECD-EU 2005

JP+KR 2005

CN 2005CN 2006

US 2001

105.4

0.0072

R2 = 0.986

Candles

GasKerosene

HIDFluorescentIncandescent

SSL

• Consistent with φ having unit elasticity with respect to gdp and CoL

• Over empirical data spanning many orders of magnitude– 5.4 in φ– 4.3 in CoL– 1.4 in gdp– 3 centuries– 6 continents– 5 technologies