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Trends within the global automotive and automotive supplier industries

Reimund Neugebauer

Andritz Capital Market Day, October 8th, 2013, Munich

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I believe in horses: the automobile hype will pass Kaiser Wilhelm II. (1859-1941)

In 1920 car makers produced only four million automobiles because the analysts believed the world would eventually run out of chauffeurs.

In 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure.

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1 The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft

2 Megatrends and Challenges

3 Cognitive Innovation for Future Products

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient Car Production

5 Conclusion

Agenda

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Conducts applied research of direct utility for private and public enterprises and wide societal benefit

Budget: € 2.1 billion

30% from federal and Länder governments

70% from contracts with industry and public research projects

66 Institute and independent research units

About 22 000 employees

Wertheim/ Bronnbach

Mannheim

Karlsruhe

Pfinztal

Ettlingen Stuttgart

Freiburg

Kandern

Efringen-Kirchen

Alzenau

Würzburg Bayreuth

Erlangen, Nürnberg, Fürth

Regensburg

Straubing

Augsburg Weßling

München, Garching

Freising

Prien

Holzkirchen

Bremen

Teltow

Wildau Potsdam-Golm

Cottbus

Bremerhaven Hamburg

Kassel

Frankfurt

Darmstadt

Rostock

Oldenburg

Hannover

Braunschweig

Goslar

Göttingen

Münster Lemgo

Paderborn Dortmund

Schmallenberg

Gelsenkirchen

Duisburg

Oberhausen

Köln

Euskirchen Aachen

Wachtberg

Bonn, Sankt Augustin

Kaiserslautern

Saarbrücken

St. Ingbert Sulzbach

Leipzig

Chemnitz

Freiberg

Dresden, Moritzburg

Zittau

Magdeburg

Halle

Schkopau

Leuna

Itzehoe

Lübeck

Erfurt Jena

Hermsdorf Ilmenau

Berlin

Sulzbach-Rosenberg

Remagen

Organization for applied research 1 The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft

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Fraunhofer worldwide 1 The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft

Dubai

Bangalore

Jakarta

Beijing Seoul

Tokyo

Boston Plymouth

East Lansing San José

Newark Maryland

Cairo

Ampang

Santiago de Chile

Singapore

Cambridge

Brussels

Porto

Vienna

Bolzano Graz Budapest

Wrocław

Gothenburg

Thessaloniki

Sydney

London

Glasgow

Salvador

Sendai

Paris

São Paulo Campinas

Stellenbosch

Representative / Marketing Office

Subsidiary Center

Senior Advisor

Project Center / Strategic Cooperation

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1 The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft

2 Megatrends and Challenges

3 Cognitive Innovation for Future Products

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient Car Production

5 Conclusion

Agenda

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Prosperity for 9.6 billion people in 2050

2 Megatrend: Global population growth

Global Population 2013: 7 billion 2050: 9.6 billion

If nothing changes: Global resource consumption will triple by 2050 (UN-Estimation)

0

3000

6000

9000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2020

2030

2040

2050

Global population in million 1950 - 2050

Mill

ion

Source: UN Population Data

Growing need for new products, modern technologies and mobility. Finite resources and environmental challenges.

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Source: OICA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1920

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Mill

ion

Financial crisis

Global motor vehicle production 1920 and 1997−2012

2 More products: Growing automobile production

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2 Megatrend: Finite availability of resources

We have to increase our resource efficiency, recycling rate, research efforts for alternatives and secure accessibility.

How long will important resources last without measures for more efficiency?

Years

Allerdings vorwiegend in China

Source: Umweltbundesamt UBA-FB 001563

Estimated availability in years (assuming a constant continuation of the current consumption rate)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Iron/Iron ore

Rare earth materials

Aluminium

Crude oil

Copper

Indium

However mostly in China

How to sustain growth while using less resources?

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How to reach the EU-28 goals with economic prosperity? 2 Megatrend: Reducing carbon-dioxide emissions

Source: Eurostat, 2013 / Data for EU 27

EU-28 goal for 2030: Reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions by 40% relative to 1990 levels. Road transport: 19% of EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions (2011)

EU 28 Goal 2020

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

600000019

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

11

1000

t o

f C

O2

equ

ival

ent

Financial and Eurozone crisis

EU 28 Goal 2030

EU 28 Goal 2050

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2 Megatrend: Global competition How to sustain Germany‘s economic competitiveness?

23% 50% 14% 29%

China: 23% of global automobile production (USA and Japan: 10% ; Germany: 8%)1

China: 50% of global solar cell/-module production. (70% are manufactured with German machines.) 2

China: 14% of all exports from OECD + BRIC countries. (USA and Germany 11%) 3

China: responsible for 29% of global CO2 emissions (USA 16%, India 5,9%, Germany 2,4%) 4

[1] International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA), 2011 [2] Bericht BMWi zur Lage der deutschen Photovoltaikindustrie 2012, Daten 2010 [3] OECD, 2011

[4] EC, Projekt EDGAR, 2011 [5] OECD, 2010

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1 The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft

2 Megatrends and Challenges

3 Cognitive Innovation for Future Products

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient Car Production

5 Conclusion

Agenda

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3 Cognitive Innovation for future products Paradigm shift for industries

Yesterday towards today:

» Maximum profit with minimal capital investment «

Today and tomorrow:

» Maximum value creation with minimal use of resources «

Optimised use of energy and resources

Closed energy and resource cycles

Sustainable production

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Energy efficient automobiles and manufacturing processes

Reduction/ elimination of greenhouse-gas emissions

Intelligent driver support and human factors engineering

Ergonomic engineering

Efficiency

E speed design

costs

Emission reduction

Car

Efficiency, Emission-reduction, ergonomic engineering

3 Cognitive Innovation for future products

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1 The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft

2 Megatrends and Challenges

3 Cognitive Innovation for Future Products

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient Car Production

5 Conclusion

Agenda

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Chassis and Carbody Motor and Drive

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

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Chassis and Carbody Motor and Drive

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

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Friction losses in combustion engine

(4 cyl. Otto engine, approx. 2 liter displacement)

Source: Grebe, Weiterentwicklung des Ottomotors

Strict legal regulations for the reduction of emissions Increasing costs for fuel

Demand for saving potentials in the automotive industry Approaches: concepts for finish machining, downsizing, material selection and light weight design

Source:

Subaru 3.6 liter/

www.ebneter-ag.ch

Valve

train

Piston assembly

Crankshaft

Auxiliary equipment

Motor speed [1/min]

Pe

rce

nta

ge

[%]

Motor: Increasing efficiency of combustion engine 4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

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Cylinder system – current situation

35 to 50 % Mechanical losses due to friction

75 to 90 % Blowby and oil consumption

Tasks for R&D

Dimensional stability of liner bore

Optimization of the tribological properties

Potential benefits

Minimum fuel savings 1.5 % in a 4-cylinder engine ≙ reduction of CO2 emissions of 2g/km* Reduction of oil consumption: -50 %

Final shape in operation (conventional)

Liner bore

Ideal shape goal

*assuming 6l/100 km fuel consumption

Motor: Increasing efficiency of combustion engine

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

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Needs for a breakthrough of electrical vehicles

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

Optimistic scenario: 1 million goal can be reached by 2020

Pessimistic scenario: 150 000 – 200 000 e-vehicles by 2020

Electricity Prices

Tax benefits

Battery extension

Charging infrastructure

Costs and availability of resources for electrical drives

Model diversity

Amortisation

Car price

Range

Attractiveness

Goal: 1 million electric vehicles on German roads by 2020

Technological and economic factors

Impact factors for consumer choice

Determine the outcome

Studie: Fraunhofer ISI, MARKTHOCHLAUFSZENARIEN FÜR ELEKTROFAHRZEUGE, 09/2013

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Electric Drive: Costs and availability of resources 4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

Bild: BOSCH

Costs

Drive with 2 kg of (Nd,Dy)-Fe-B magnets costs of 100-300 EUR (Brose: W. Sczygiol – Forum Elektromobilität, Kongress 2013)

OE-target costs for electrical drive: about10 EUR/kW

Availability

Rare earths are not a rare resource on earth

Hard to mine

> 80 % of worlds mining in China recycling

optimised design

efficient processes

substitution

Goal: Achieve up to 50% reduction of rare earth metals in permanent magnets

Fraunhofer-Lighthouse project

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Chassis and Carbody Motor and Drive

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

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extension of forming limits with innovative drawing technology

multi-point cushion technique (MPC)

material AA5754; s0 = 0,8 mm

drawing device

press force 2500 kN

pin number max. 16

pin force-Kraft 60 kN

0

20

40

60

80

dra

win

g d

ep

th [

mm

]

βf = 1,34

βfic = 1,41 βf = 1,47

rigid blankholder

elast. blankholder

elast. blankh. + MPC

test press

PYZ 250

Carbody: Basic Investigations – Forming

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

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die plate

die

Cooling strategy

- Left side: water cooled ϑ ≈ 20°C

- Right side: tempered ϑ ≈ 300°C (heated oil)

FE-simulation

wassergekühlt mit warmem Öl

wassergekühlt mit warmem Öl

Microstructure – Bainit Flow stress (MPa)

Implementation in real tool

die with milled cooling channels

to be actuated seperately

use of different fluids possible

Trial-geometry

„B-pillar“

Carbody: Elevated investigation – Tailored tempering 4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

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Operating test Deep drawing tool Deep drawing sample with inserted MFC

Carbody: Deep drawing of Active Macro-Fibre-Composites (MFC) 4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

Multimaterial Design: Macro-Fibre-Composites

Application of Glue

(viscous)

Pre-Forming

(viscous floating support)

Final-Forming

(hardening)

Advantages

Ultra light smart components

Damping of vibrations

Acoustic Design

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Special requirements

No transmission tunnel Integration of functions Crash-safety for batteries

Front carriage

With/without drive unit

Preferred option: single wheel drive

Battery in vehicle double-floor (low centre of gravity)

Low unsprung masses Modular drive concepts (2WD/4WD)

Rear carriage

With/without drive unit

Defined interface

For modular manufacturing

Central vehicle floor

Sandwich construction with framework structure

Embedded battery modules (incl. periphery)

Variable performance and reach

New carbody concept: modular electrical vehicles 4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

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New carbody concept: Energy harvesting by cars 4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient car production

Organic PV:

lightweight

thin

flexible Transparent Solar Module

Substrate patterning

Adaption of Organic Photovoltaic in carbodies:

Lightweight and thin

Highly flexible form factors are possible

Potentially transparent

Energy payback time < 1 year

Lifetime of >20 years possible

Good low light and temperature behavior

Challenge: costs

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1 The Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft

2 Megatrends and Challenges

3 Cognitive Innovation for Future Products

4 Fraunhofer R&D: Resource-efficient Car Production

5 Conclusion

Agenda

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Demographic change is the major cause for most megatrends.

Personalised products in medicine, consumer goods and mobility will increase.

Efficiency technologies and products secure new markets and help to keep costs competitive.

Smart components for product connectivity and function integration require new technologies and new training concepts.

5 Conclusion