Trends of Global Energy Supply Pattern

trends of global energy

supply pattern

Non-OPEC supply ability enhancement

OPEC faces competition is increasing

Renewable energy is going into the golden

era

LNG supply will continue

to rise

Coal production

capacity are being cut

down

Unconventional oil and

gas resource potential is stepping up

Electricity transmission distribution efficiency smart grid are being improved

Long-term trends of global energy prices

the overall price

difference is shrinking

among different kinds

of energy

Coal prices will generally remain low

Renewable energy prices

will continue to decline

Oil price is mainly affected

by comprehensive

factors

Natural gas prices with

regional differences for

a long time

The electricity prices will be increasingly reflect the

clean energy costs

When fossil fuels will end?

• At least 50 years will be

delayed than those

developed countries；• Natural gas era is difficult

to be coming；• Renewable energy will

definitely become the

future direction。

firewood

coal

Renewable

nuclear

Natural gas

oil

percentage in

primary energy

The impact of future global energy

demand ：The major emerging economies

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030 2050

Mtoe

China

Russian Federation

India

Brazil

Indonesia

Other Non-OECD

US

Japan

Other OECD

Nuclear power will still grow

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

OECD Non-OECD

Billion KWh

Renewable energy will be in the dominated

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Non-OECD-Biomass power generation

OECD-Biomass power generation

Non-OECD-Wind、solar and geothermal power generation

OECD-Wind、solar and geothermal power generation

Billion KWh 2009—2014 Costs decline

• PV:-53%

• Biomass gasification:-34%

• Onshore wind :-28%

• Reuse of city solid waste:-15%

• Solar thermal power :-4%

The role of coal is still powerful

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

OECD China Non-OECD

Mtce

Future Coal Market(World and China)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Xinjiang

Ningxia

shaanxi

Inner Mongolia

Shanxi

World

China

10 tons8

China Energy Pathway

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

一次电力

天然气

石油

煤炭

108ton tce

Primary Electricity

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

China Energy Pathway

68%

19%

4%

8%

2010

32

60%20%

9%

12%

2020

44

51%

21%

12%

16%

2030

50

34%

16%16%

33%

2050

49

煤炭

石油

天然气

一次电力

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Primary Electricity

China Energy Pathway

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

煤炭 石油 天然气 一次电力

10 tce

Around 2030, oil

consumption will reach

the peak , the peak is 0.7

billion tons.

Import dependency will

reach 70%.

Around 2025, coal

consumption will reach

the peak , the peak is 4

billion tons.

8

Coal Oil Natural gas Primary Electricity

What is the path of China energy

development ？

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

农业

建筑

交通

工业

10 tce8

Agriculture

Construction

Transportation

Industry

70%62%

58%50%

15%

17%19%

23%

14%20% 22%

26%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2020 2030 2050

What is the path of China energy

development ？

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

太阳能热电

PV太阳能

海上风电

陆上风电

水电

核电

火力发电

Trillion Kwh

Solar thermal power

PV

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

Hydroelectric

Nuclear power

Thermal power

What is the path of China energy

development ？

(20)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

(20)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

能源转换

化石燃料发电

化石燃料生产

制冷制热

照明及设备

交通

工业

碳汇

集中供热

净排放量

10 tons8

Energy transfer

Fossil fuel power generation

Fossil fuel production

Cooling and heating

Lighting and equipment

Transportation

Industry

Carbon sink

District heating

Net emissions

Consumption Peaks(different pathway)

46

Production Peaks(different pathway)

47

Carbon Peak(different pathway)

48

Uncertainty: Technology Revolution

smart grid + internet + networking

Electricity

transmission and

distribution

Intelligent energy

control systemRenewable

resource

The central energy

and heating system

Electric Vehicles Air compression

Energy

storage

Pumped-

storage hydro

plant

distributed

energy sources

Uncertainty： New Coal-based Technologies