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Trends in Market and Release of Automated Driving
GGS Heilbronn 26.09.2019Charles Degutis, Director Product ManagementDr. Bernhard Pauli, Director Release Strategy
Robert Bosch GmbH, Chassis Systems Control, Business Unit Automated Driving, Abstatt (Germany)
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Automated DrivingBenefits of self-driving cars
Higher fuel efficiency
Up to 39% improvement in highway fuel economy
Reducedcongestion
80% improvement in traffic throughput
Gain in productivity
56 minutes per day freed up for other uses
Improvedsafety
Reduction in motor vehicle accident rates
Democratizationof mobility
Allow all age ranges to be mobile
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…primarily through Softbank in commercially oriented venturesMore than €5 BN Investment in AD 10.2018 – 03.2019…
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$1 bn
$1 bn $0.5 bn
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…pushed by new safety regulation and enhanced L2 functionalityDriver Assistance with increasing importance…
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ZF ProAI central computer features powerful AI capabilities, NVIDIA DRIVE Xavier processor and Level 2+ software stack
Super Cruise
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…and NCAP influence leads to core business price pressureCooperation / joint development take on greater importance…
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JOINT DEVELOPMENT
Open source takes hold ina wide range of topic areas
OpenADxNEW
NEW
NCAP
GSR / NCAP pushesinstallation rates andincreases price pressure
Legal parameterdevelopment lagstechnology development
COOPERATION OEM cooperation targets
other OEMs
Tier 2 suppliers drive newcooperation modelsproviding ADDA kits
NEW NEWInstallation rates through ‘26
C
NEW FUNCTIONS
OEMs target advanced L2functions as bridge to L3
L2
L3L2
Hands-Free
System Complexity
Time
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Carsharing Movement
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UAT: Urban Automated Taxi
Urban Automated
Taxis
Automated Private cars
Incremental Change
Vehi
cle
cont
rol
Vehicle ownership SharedIndividual
Driv
erAs
sist
Auto
mat
ed
Evol
utio
n
PC UAT
6
Focus Today
Evolutionary and disruptive development pathsAutomated Driving
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Global Mega Trends on Connected and Automated Driving
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AD Market Potential
2025 2030
10 -> 15
20 -> 25
TJPHWP
Sources:IHS Markit Auto Executive Briefing, April 2017McKinsey, Automotive revolution, January 2016just-auto.comRoland BergerBCG
in Mio vehiclein Mio vehicle
Automated driving, passenger cars
Automated driving, commercial use (UAT)
TJP – Traffic Jam PilotHWP – Highway PilotUAT – Urban Automated Taxi
2025 2030
10 -> 15
20 -> 25
4 -> 16
1 -> 3
2025 2030
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SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS
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Automated Driving
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Partial vs. High Automation - Fail Safe vs. Fail Operational
High Automation
Decision Making System System
Responsibility Driver System
Insufficient Actuation Driver take over Not permissible
Situations addressed Selected use cases Selected use cases
System failure Fail safe / fail silent Fail operational(driver backup with delay)
Partial Automation
Conditional and High Automation require Redundancy for sensors, ECUs, communication and actuation New methods for data fusion and decision making
Level 2* (“Relax”) Level 3 “Do something else”
System
System
Not permissible
Selected use cases
Fail operational
Conditional AutomationLevel 4
*levels of driving automation definition per SAE
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Localization
Surround sensing
Validation & release process
System architecture
Legislation
SafetyDecision making
Safety is non-negotiable!
Global Mega Trends on Connected and Automated Driving Fundamentals
Security
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Safe automated
driving(L3-L5)
Integrated safety (ISO26262)System malfunctions
Safe drivingDriving rules and behavior
Increased safety with assisting functions Fundamentals of safety
We
are
a m
embe
r or f
ound
er
of m
any
com
mitt
ees
KIABS
Airbag control unit
Traction control system
ESP®
Electrical steering systems
Lane departure warning
Automatic emergency braking
Active pedestrian protection
Evasive steering support
Bosch has driven safety on system level for decades
Safety is part of Bosch’s core businessAutomated Driving
Misinterpretations of environment and foreseen misuse
Safety of the intended functionality
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RELEASE REQUIREMENTS
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Complex overall Situation with various RisksCurrently missing Regulations and Standards for AD lead to a …
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Projects
CV
Development Strategy
Release Strategy
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Release Strategy for AD avoids and controls risks based on a …
Strategy
Avoiding and controlling of risks
(analogical to standards for safetyISO 26262and security ISO/PAS 21448,e.g.)
Risk identification
Root cause analysis
Measures
Risk evaluation
Release decision
Modality
Structured procedure based on legal needs and principles
Hazard and threat analysis focused on
technical and belonging legal aspects
Organizational and technical causes
Systematic proceeding
Reasonable and needed measures
Evaluation of all risks, i.e. unknown and
known risks
Safety expected by the public
Positive benefit risk ratio
ProcedureRisks by• Liability /Product Liability• Warranty• Market Acceptance
Failure of organization and of employees
Release process and verifiable application
• Judgement of processes and work products• Evaluation of
- unknown risks based on processes and methods- known risks based on work products
Decision based on • all remaining risks (liability, warranty, acceptance)• achieved safety compared to public expectation• result of benefit risk analysis
Failure of product
Engineering process and work products
Systematical Resolution Approach
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Function
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Safety
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Relia-bility
…
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One main Element of the Release Strategy for AD is the …
The release argumentation provides the methods and the needed work products to prove the fulfillment of the mandatory product properties: function, conformity, safety, security, reliability.
The overall release strategy is centrally developed and provides a systematical and legally sound framework for the company and the employees to develop and to release AD systems.
Processes, QM-System, Values, BES-PE, Tools, Methods
Requirem
ents
Work Products
Arguments
Standards, Regulations, Laws, Homologation, State of the Art (currently not all AD specific)
Release of AD
Arguments by combination of• proceeding /method and• work product
constructed as explicit and logical chain
by complete and consistent decomposing
till providing the needed evidences
Confor-mity
…
AD System
Security
Only a structured proceeding in development and release makes AD systems reality!
GSN (Goal Structuring Notation) as method
Release Argumentation applying well proven Systematics
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What are the exciting topics? Two new and difficult …
Wide spectrum in open world varying from simple to complex situations from usual to exceptional objects from safe to dangerous behaviors …
Release Argumentation
Challenges of AD – Open World Context and Safe Behavior
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Example: Typical, but safety relevant Situation (@5 sec)What are the exciting topics?
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Example: Detection of ghost object (@10 sec)What are the exciting topics?
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Video example: Scenario:
Driving on an empty street at night
Special conditions: wet bumpy street, many light sources, reflections and shades with different forms
Initiator: Ghost object
System reaction: possibly wrong intervention
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What are the goals to be achieved? The industry is discussing …Various Approaches for Safety Goals
Probability of accidents per hour at maximum
10E-7/h
Not safe
Assuming a small fleet of e.g. 100 000 vehicles, an accident happens every 100 h Waiting for the accident
Better than the human driver
x-times
Not consistent
Which factor x and why? Which driver, the ideal in theory, the average or the worst? Which accident statistics? The German, US or …? Which year?
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Driving Tests without accidents at
30 Billion Miles
Not feasible
Statistical approach with several uncertaintiesAssuming 1000 test vehicles driving 24/7/52, test takes more than 100 years
Absolute 100% safety is totally impossible – that ´s real life! But what are the goals to be achieved?
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An alternative Approach for Safety GoalsWhat are the goals to be achieved? The industry is discussing …
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The top goal is to improve road safety. The AD system provides a rule-consistent and predictable behavior and causes no accidents. If other road users, animals, objects or obstacles cause a hazard, the AD system reacts in the
best way possible to prevent upcoming accidents or, if this is impossible, to mitigate the severity.
Alternative approach
… adopted from established safety systems like Airbag, ABS, ESP … derived from requirements on the behavior of a human driver … in accordance with regulations by the European Commission and the UN ECE Trans/WP.29
This approach is …
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Automated Driving Summary
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Technology plays a crucial roleBrain is everywhere … vehicle, cloud, infrastructure
ComplexityCollaboration, partnerships & shared system development are key success factors
LegalComprehensive legal framework required to establish clear AD parameters
Concept & SolutionsClear separation of L1-L2, L3, L4-L5 different user groups, different needs
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