trends in international higher education: what do the numbers tell you and what can you do? -...
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Trends in international higher education: what do the numbers tell you and what can you do? - Andreas SchleicherTRANSCRIPT
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And
reas
Sch
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in h
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Andreas SchleicherAdvisor of the OECD Secretary-General on Education Policy
Deputy Director for Education
Trends in higher educationWhat do the numbers tell you and what can you do?
UUK, London, 20 March 2014
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Tradit
ional in
stit
uti
ons
Inn
ovato
rs
Formal learning Informal learning
Education providers
Learn
er
Ow
ners
hip
Tradit
ional in
stit
uti
ons
Inn
ovato
rs
Formal learning Informal learning
Is there no end to the expansion of higher education?
How successful do institutions engage with
evolving learning needs?
Who can make a systemic difference to
closing skills gaps?
Can we extend mass education for some to
personalised learning for all?
Key questions…
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Tradit
ional in
stit
uti
ons
Inn
ovato
rs
Formal learning Informal learning
Education providers
Learn
er
Ow
ners
hip
Tradit
ional in
stit
uti
ons
Inn
ovato
rs
Formal learning Informal learning
How successful do institutions engage with
evolving learning needs?
Who can make a systemic difference to
closing skills gaps?
Can we extend mass education for some to
personalised learning for all?
Is there no end to the expansion of higher education?
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The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-old age groups,
55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population
About 39 million people who attained tertiary level
About 81 million people who attained tertiary level
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United States, 35.8
Japan, 12.4
China, 6.9Germany, 6.3
United Kingdom, 5.3
Canada, 4.2
France, 3.5
Brazil, 3.5
Spain, 2.1
Italy, 1.9
Mexico, 1.8
Australia, 1.7
Korea, 1.6other, 12.9
United States, 20.5
Japan, 10.9
China, 18.3
Germany, 3.1United Kingdom, 4.4
Canada, 3.1
France, 4.1
Brazil, 4.5
Spain, 3.5
Italy, 2.0
Mexico, 3.9
Australia, 1.6
Korea, 5.7
other, 14.5
The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-old age groups
55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1995
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate (%)
Cost
per
stu
dent
Graduate supply
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1995
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate (%)
Cost
per
stu
dent
Graduate supply
United States
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2000
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
United Kingdom
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2001
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2002
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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Key fi
nd
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s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2003
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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Key fi
nd
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s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2004
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2006
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2007
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2008
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2009 Ex
pend
itur
e pe
r st
uden
t at
ter
tiary
leve
l (U
SD)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
Iceland
Poland
UK
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Key fi
nd
ing
s
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010
Expe
ndit
ure
per
stud
ent
at t
ertia
ry le
vel (
USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
US
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Evolution in the number of students enrolled outside their country of citizenship (2000 to 2010)
By region of destination
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
4 500 000
Worldwide In OECD In EU countries In G20 countriesIn North America
Number of foreign stu-dents
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United States 16.6%
United Kingdom 13%
Australia 6.6%
Germany 6.4%
France 6.3%
Canada 4.7%Russian Federation 3.9%
Japan 3.4%
Spain 2.4%
China 1.8%
New Zealand 1.7%
Italy 1.7%
Austria 1.7%
South Africa 1.5%
Korea 1.4%
Switzerland 1.3%
Belgium 1.3%
Netherlands 1.2%
Sweden 1.1%
Other OECD countries 6.4%
Other non-OECD countries 15.5%
Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by country of destination (2010)
Percentage of foreign tertiary students (reported to the OECD) who are enrolled in each country of destination
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Total from Asia 52.5%
Total from Europe 22.7%
Total from Africa 11.8%
Total from Latin America and the Caribbean 6.2%
Not specified 3.2%Total from North America
2.7%Total from Oceania 1%
Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by continent of origin (2010)
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United S
tate
s
United K
ingdom
Aust
ralia
Germ
any
France
Canada
Russ
ian F
edera
tion
Japan
Spain
Chin
a
New
Zeala
nd
Italy
Aust
ria
South
Afr
ica
Kore
a
Belg
ium
Sw
itze
rland
Neth
erl
ands
Sw
eden
Oth
er
OEC
D
Oth
er
G20 a
nd n
on-O
EC
D
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2000
Trends in international education market shares Percentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled, by destination
Market share (%)
“Other G20 and non-OECD countries” refers to the portion of total foreign students studying in other G20 and non-OECD countries and is obtained after subtracting China, South Africa and the Russian Federation from the total in non-OECD destinations, as estimated from UNESCO data.
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Will we one day all have a university degree and work for the minimum wage?
A growing educational divide
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Key fi
nd
ing
sThe private returns on an investment in post-secondary
education are substantial, especially for menPrivate costs and benefits for a man attaining upper secondary or post-secondary non
tertiary education (2009)
Greece 14798Finland 30897Turkey 35082Poland 36764Estonia 45121
Germany 56193New Zealand 58058
Hungary 63962France 69168
Italy 72302Israel 73154
Denmark 80729Slovenia 80936
EU21 average 89071Portugal 96530
OECD average 100277Sweden 104322Canada 105055
Spain 106512Australia 122526
Czech Republic 133693Ireland 142366
Norway 143459United Kingdom 148730
Austria 156870Slovak Republic 163387
United States 214382Korea 252207
-200 000 -100 000 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000
Direct cost Foregone earnings Income tax effect Social contribution effect Transfers effect Gross earnings benefits Unemployment effect
Equivalent USD
for a man
Chart A7.2 -1B
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Key fi
nd
ing
sThe net public return on investment for a man in
tertiary education is over USD 100 000.Net private and public returns associated with a man attaining tertiary education (2009)
United StatesIreland
Czech RepublicPoland
SloveniaSlovak Republic
HungaryAustria
United KingdomCanadaFinland
EU21 averageFrance
PortugalOECD average
KoreaItaly
AustraliaIsrael
NetherlandsJapan
EstoniaGermany
SpainBelgiumNorwaySweden
DenmarkGreece
New ZealandTurkey
0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000
Public net returns Private net returns
Equivalent USDChart A7.1
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Consumption or economic use?
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Average GDP growth (real percentage change from the previous year) and labour income growth in GDP, by
educational categories Countries with at least five years of growth estimates by educational categories; GDP growth estimates are matched with years of education growth
estimates (2000-2010)
Isra
el
Ko
rea
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Sw
ed
en
Fin
lan
d
Ca
na
da
Co
un
try a
ve
rag
e
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Hu
ng
ary
No
rwa
y
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Au
stri
a
Ge
rma
ny
Fra
nce
Ire
lan
d
De
nm
ark
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%GDP Growth ISCED 5B/5A/6 ISCED 3/4 ISCED 0/1/2
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Change in annual labour-income growth in GDP, by educational categories during the crisis
2009 GDP growth shown next to country names
No
rwa
y,
-1.7
%
Slo
va
k R
ep
ub
lic,
-4.8
%
Sw
itze
rla
nd
, -1
.9%
Ca
na
da
, -2
.8%
Ko
rea
, 0
.3%
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m,
-4.9
%
Fra
nce
, -2
.7%
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic,
-4.1
%
Au
stri
a,
-3.9
%
OE
CD
ave
rag
e,
-3.8
%
De
nm
ark
, -5
.2%
Ge
rma
ny,
-4.7
%
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d,
0.8
%
Sp
ain
, -3
.7%
Fin
lan
d,
-8.2
%
Sw
ed
en
, -5
.3%
Est
on
ia,
-13
.9%
Hu
ng
ary
, -6
.7%
Isra
el, 0
.8%
Un
ite
d S
tate
s, -
3.5
%
Ire
lan
d,
-7.6
%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%ISCED 5B/5A/6 ISCED 3/4 ISCED 0/1/2
Chart A10.2
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Can we ensure sustainable financing?Who should pay for what, when and how?
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13
Key fi
nd
ing
sIn some major countries expenditure per tertiary student did not always keep pace with increases in tertiary enrolment
Change in expenditure per student by educational institutions (2005 = 100, 2010 constant prices )
Est
on
ia
Ko
rea
Po
lan
d
Ire
lan
d
Bra
zil
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Jap
an
Italy
Sw
ed
en
Sp
ain
EU
21
ave
rag
e
Hu
ng
ary
Be
lgiu
m
Ch
ile
OE
CD
ave
rag
e
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Po
rtu
ga
l
Me
xico
Slo
ven
ia
Slo
vak
Re
pu
blic
De
nm
ark
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Au
stra
lia
No
rwa
y
Isra
el
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
tion
Au
stri
a
Ice
lan
d
Sw
itze
rla
nd
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Change in expenditure Change in the number of students (in full-time equivalents)
Change in expenditure per student Index of change
(2005=100)
Tertiary education
UK
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leic
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ucat
ion
at a
Gla
nce
20
12Average tuition fees and proportion of
students who benefit from public loans and/or scholarships/grants
Tertiary-type A, public institutions, academic year 2008-09, national full-time students
0 25 50 75 100 0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
United States
United Kingdom
JapanAustralia
New Zealand
Netherlands
Italy SpainAustriaBelgium (Fl.)
Belgium (Fr.)France
Switzerland
Finland
NorwayDenmark
SwedenIcelandMexico
% of students who benefit from public loans AND/OR scholarships/grants
Ave
rage
tuiti
on fe
es c
harg
ed b
y pu
blic
inst
itutio
ns in
US
D
Group 1:No (or low) financial barriers
for tertiary studies due to tuition fees and a high level
of student aid.
Group 2:Potentially high financial
barriers for entry to tertiary-type A education, but also strong student
support.
Group 3:Extensive and
broadly uniform cost sharing across
students, student support systems somewhat less
developed.
Group 4:Relatively low financial barriers
to entry to tertiary education and relatively low support
Bubble size shows
graduation rates
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Ed
uca
tional
inst
itu
tions
Inn
ovato
rs
Formal learning Informal learning
Education providers
Learn
er
Ow
ners
hip
Tradit
ional in
stit
uti
ons
Inn
ovato
rs
Formal learning Informal learning
Is there no end to the expansion of higher education?
Who can make a systemic difference to
closing skills gaps?
Can we extend mass education for some to
personalised learning for all?
How successful do institutions engage
with evolving learning needs?
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Problem solving proficiency
by educational attainment
EstoniaPoland
KoreaIrelandCanada
Slovak RepublicJapan
AustriaUnited States
AverageGermany
England/N. Ireland (UK)DenmarkAustralia
Flanders (Belgium)Finland
Czech RepublicNorwaySweden
Netherlands
70 50 30 10 10 30 50 70
Level 22 Level 3
Lower than upper secondary Tertiary
PercentPercent
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Evolution of employment in occupational groups defined by problem-solving skills
Percentage change in the share of employment relative to 1998, by occupational groups defined by workers’ average level of proficiency in problem solving (based on 24 OECD countries with 1998 LFS data)
42
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
*-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Medium-low level of prob-lem-solving
Low level of problem-solv-ing
Medium-high level of prob-lem-solving
%
4343U
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Tradit
ional in
stit
uti
ons
Oth
er
pro
vid
ers
Formal learning Informal learning
Education providers
Learn
er
Ow
ners
hip
Tradit
ional in
stit
uti
ons
Oth
er
pro
vid
ers
Formal learning Informal learning
Is there no end to the expansion of higher education?
Can we extend mass education for some to
personalised learning for all?
How successful do institutions engage with
evolving learning needs?
Who can make a systemic difference
to closing skills gaps?
4444U
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Tradit
ional in
stit
uti
ons
Oth
er
pro
vid
ers
Formal learning Informal learning
Education providers
Learn
er
Ow
ners
hip
Tradit
ional in
stit
uti
ons
Inn
ovato
rs
Formal learning Informal learning
Is there no end to the expansion of higher education?
Will institutions succeed shifting responsibility for learning to the learner?
Who can make a systemic difference to
closing skills gaps?
Can we extend mass education for some to
personalised learning for all?
The great unbundling?
4545U
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No
rwa
y
Ge
rma
ny
De
nm
ark
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Au
stri
a
Ca
na
da
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Sw
ed
en
Fin
lan
d
Be
lgiu
m
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
OE
CD
ave
rag
e
Po
rtu
ga
l
Sp
ain
Est
on
ia
Slo
va
k R
ep
ub
lic
Po
lan
d
Ita
ly
Gre
ece
Hu
ng
ary
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
%
Chart C6.1
OECD average
Annual labour costs of employer-sponsored non-formal education as a percentage of GDP (2007)
Employed 25-64 year-olds
Compares with 1.6% for higher
education
4646U
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Pola
nd
Irela
nd
Hungary
Cze
ch R
epublic
Aust
ralia
Gre
ece
Italy
France
Spain
Sw
eden
United K
ingdom
Luxe
mbourg
Belg
ium
Slo
venia
Neth
erl
ands
Port
ugal
OEC
D a
vera
ge
Canada
Turk
ey
Sw
itze
rland
Denm
ark
Finla
nd
New
Zeala
nd
Aust
ria
Icela
nd
Norw
ay
United S
tate
s
Germ
any
Slo
vak
Republic
Est
onia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
High Medium Low Downward mobility Upward mobility
‘Status quo by parents educational level
Intergenerational mobility in education (2009)Percentage of 25-34 year-old non-students whose educational attainment is higher than
their parents’ (upward mobility), lower (downward mobility) or the same (status quo) and status quo by parents' educational level (low, medium, high)
4747U
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 800
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
54.6
12.310.3
37.1
20.1
4.64.2
16.915.6
0.0
8.0
16.2
31.428.0
32.1
3.9
30.3 29.1
14.9
20.9
10.2
70.4
61.9
No relationship between share of private financing and educational mobility in higher education
Hig
her
share
of
pri
vate
financi
ng in h
igher
educa
tion
Higher degree of educational mobility
Percentage of students in higher education whose parents have low educationPerc
enta
ge o
f pri
vate
sou
rces
in h
igher
educa
tion fi
nan
ce
4848U
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reas
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leic
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ion
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 600.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Australia 1
Austria
Belgium
Canada 2
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland GermanyGreece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
New Zealand 1
NorwayPoland
Portugal
Spain Sweden
Switzerland
United States 2
f(x) = − 0.321208138432464 ln(x) + 1.60302708790517R² = 0.370298152401322
Impact of PISA index of economic, social, and cultural status (ESCS) on student reading performance (2000)
The
odds
of a
20-
34 y
ear-
old
atten
ding
hig
her e
duca
tion
if pa
rent
s hav
e lo
w l
evel
s of e
duca
tion
(200
9)
Note: The number of students attending higher education are under-reported for Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States compared to the other countries as they only include students who attained ISCED 5A, while the other coun-tries include students who attained ISCED 5A and/or 5B. Therefore, the omission of data on 5B qualifications may understate intergenerational mobility in these countries.1. Data source from Adult Literacy and Lifeskills Survey (ALL) of 2006.2. Data source from Adult Literacy and Lifeskills Survey (ALL) of 2003.
A close relationship between equity at school and equity in higher education
The weaker the influence of social background on learning outcomes at school (PISA)…th
e m
ore
lik
ely
it
is t
hat
people
wit
h
dis
advanta
ged b
ack
gro
unds
make
it
into
hig
her
educa
tion
4949U
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Making lifelong learning a reality for allSkills by age
15 25 35 45 55 65225
235
245
255
265
275
285
295
305
No adjustmentAdjusted for immigrant status and educationAdjusted for immigrant status, education and reading engagement
Age
Skill score
5050U
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5151U
UK
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Thank you !
– www.oecd.org/education/eag2012• Data and publications
…and remember:
Without data, you are just another person with an opinion