andreas schleicher philadelphia, april 26, 2010 why learning outcomes matter and what it takes to...
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Why learning outcomes matter
and what it takes to deliver world class standards
Philadelphia, April 26 2010
Andreas SchleicherEducation Policy Advisor of the OECD Secretary-General
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hem 1. Know why you are looking
The yardstick for success is no longer just improvement by national standards…
… but the best performing education systems globally
2. Know what you are looking for The kind of education that makes a difference for
individuals and nations
3. How do we recognise it when we found it? The link between skills,
and economic and social outcomes
4. Policy implications Understanding what contributes to the success of
education systems and improving performance .
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Imp
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Know why you are looking
The yardstick for success is no longer just improvement by national standards…
… but the best performing education systems globally
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – higher education
Graduate supply
Cost
per
stu
den
t
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – higher education
United States
Finland
Graduate supply
Cost
per
stu
den
t
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – higher education
Australia
FinlandUnited Kingdom
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – higher education
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – higher education
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – higher education
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – higher education
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – higher education
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
A world of change – higher education
United States
Australia
Finland
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Public cost and benefits for a male obtaining post-secondary education
Public benefit
s
Public benefit
s
Public
costs
Public
costs
Net present value, USD equivalent
(numbers in orange show
negative values)
Net present value, USD equivalent
(numbers in orange show
negative values)
USD equivalent
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Know what you are looking for
The kind of human capital that makes a difference for people and nations
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Hanushek 2009
GDP/pop
1960
Years schoolin
g
Asia 1891 4
Sub-Saharan Africa 2304 3.3
MENA 2599 2.7
Latin America 4152 4.7
Europe 7469 7.4
Orig. OECD 11252 9.5
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GDP/pop
1960
Years schoolin
g
Asia 1891 4
Sub-Saharan Africa 2304 3.3
MENA 2599 2.7
Latin America 4152 4.7
Europe 7469 7.4
Orig. OECD 11252 9.5
Latin America then and now…
GDP/pop
1960
Years schoolin
gGrowth
1960-2000GDP/pop
2000
Asia 1891 4 4.5 13571
Sub-Saharan Africa 2304 3.3 1.4 3792
MENA 2599 2.7 2.7 8415
Latin America 4152 4.7 1.8 8063
Europe 7469 7.4 2.9 21752
Orig. OECD 11252 9.5 2.1 26147
Hanushek 2009
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Why quality is the key
Hanushek 2009
GDP/pop
1960
Years schoolin
gGrowth
1960-2000GDP/pop
2000Test score
Asia 1891 4 4.5 13571 480
Sub-Saharan Africa 2304 3.3 1.4 3792 360
MENA 2599 2.7 2.7 8415 412
Latin America 4152 4.7 1.8 8063 388
Europe 7469 7.4 2.9 21752 492
Orig. OECD 11252 9.5 2.1 26147 500
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OECD’s PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds
Coverage of world economy 77%81%83%85%86%87%
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Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply
High science performance
Low science performance
… 18 countries perform below this line
I srael
I talyPortugal Greece
Russian Federation
LuxembourgSlovak Republic,Spain,Iceland Latvia
Croatia
Sweden
DenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgiumIreland
Czech Republic SwitzerlandMacao- ChinaGermanyUnited Kingdom
Korea
J apanAustralia
Slovenia
NetherlandsLiechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong- China
Finland
CanadaEstonia
United States LithuaniaNorway
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465
485
505
525
545
565
616
Not just about poor kids in poor
neighborhoods but about many kids in
many neighborhoods
U.S. city of over 1m
U.S. small town (3-15k)
U.S. suburban (15-100k)
Poland 2000
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How do we know that we found it?
To what extent knowledge and skills matter for the success of individuals and economies
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Increased likelihood of postsec. particip. at age 19/21 associated with PISA reading proficiency at age 15
(Canada)after accounting for school engagement, gender, mother
tongue, place of residence, parental, education and family income (reference group PISA Level 1)
Odds ratioCollege entry
School marks at age 15
PISA performance at age
15
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High science performance
Low science performance
Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply
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Relationship between test performance and economic outcomes
Annual improved GDP from raising performance by 25 PISA pointsPerc
en
t addit
ion t
o G
DP
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Increase average performance by 25 PISA points (Total 115 trillion $)
bn$
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High science performance
Low science performance
Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply
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Raise everyone to minimum of 400 PISA pointsbn$
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Raise everyone to minimum of 400 PISA points% currrent
GDP
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The higher economic outcomes that improved student performance entails dwarf the dimensions of economic cycles
Even if the estimated impacts of skills were twice as large as the true underlying causal impact on growth, the resulting present value of successful school reform still far exceeds any conceivable costs of improvement.
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Implications
Improving outcomes
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Money matters - but other things do too
Question:
If better education results in more money,
Does more money result in better education?
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Contribution of various factors to upper secondary teacher compensation costsper student as a percentage of GDP per capita (2004)
Percentage points
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High ambitions and universal
standards
Rigor, focus and coherence
Great systems attract great teachers and
provide access to best practice and quality
professional development
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Challenge and support
Weak support
Strong support
Lowchallenge
Highchallenge
Strong performance
Systemic improvement
Poor performance
Improvements idiosyncratic
Conflict
Demoralisation
Poor performance
Stagnation
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International Best Practice•Principals who are trained, empowered, accountable and provide instructional leadership
•Attracting, recruiting and providing excellent training for prospective teachers from the top third of the graduate distribution
•Incentives, rules and funding encourage a fair distribution of teaching talent
The past
•Principals who manage ‘a building’, who have little training and preparation and are accountable but not empowered
•Attracting and recruiting teachers from the bottom third of the graduate distribution and offering training which does not relate to real classrooms
•The best teachers are in the most advantaged communities
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International Best Practice•Expectations of teachers are clear; consistent quality, strong professional ethic and excellent professional development focused on classroom practice
•Teachers and the system expect every child to succeed and intervene preventatively to ensure this
The past
•Seniority and tenure matter more than performance; patchy professional development; wide variation in quality
•Wide achievement gaps, just beginning to narrow but systemic and professional barriers to transformation remain in place
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High ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional development
Accountability and intervention in
inverse proportion to success
Devolved responsibility,
the school as the centre of action
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Strong ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional development
Accountability
Devolvedresponsibility,
the school as the centre of action
Integrated educational
opportunities
From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning
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Paradigm shifts
The old bureaucratic system
The modern enabling system
Hit and miss Universal high standards
Uniformity Embracing diversity
Provision Outcomes
Bureaucratic look-up Devolved – look outwards
Talk equity Deliver equity
Prescription Informed profession
Conformity Ingenious
Curriculum-centred Learner-centred
Interactive Participative
Individualised Community-centred
Delivered wisdom User-generated wisdom
Management Leadership
Public vs private Public with private
Culture as obstacle Culture as capital
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Thank you !Thank you !
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