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EDUCATION

INTELLIGENCE

© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission

Trends in international higher

education

1

EDUCATION

INTELLIGENCE

© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission

Schedule Student decision-making

Drivers of international higher education mobility

Demographics

Economics

Domestic tertiary enrolments

International postgraduate forecasts

Outbound mobility

Inbound mobility

Postgraduate flows to Australia

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INTELLIGENCE

© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission

Schedule Student decision-making

Drivers of international higher education mobility

Demographics

Economics

Domestic tertiary enrolments

International postgraduate forecasts

Outbound mobility

Inbound mobility

Postgraduate flows to Australia

EDUCATION

INTELLIGENCE

© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission

Student Insight

Longitudinal survey, running since 2007

Over 180,000 responses collected globally

How? …with the cooperation of the British Council network and strategic partners

No destination country bias

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INTELLIGENCE

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What are the most important factors when choosing a host country for study abroad?

Quality of education

Career prospects

Internationally recognised qualifications

Opportunities for employment while studying

University reputation

EDUCATION

INTELLIGENCE

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From what countries are students interested in Australia as a study destination?

China

Bangladesh

Turkey

Pakistan

Thailand

India

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INTELLIGENCE

© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission

What is your preferred subject area of study?

Business and administrative studies

Engineering and technology

Computer science

English language

Social studies (economics, politics, etc.)

EDUCATION

INTELLIGENCE

© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission

Schedule Student decision-making

Drivers of international higher education mobility

Demographics

Economics

Domestic tertiary enrolments

International postgraduate forecasts

Outbound mobility

Inbound mobility

Postgraduate flows to Australia

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Australian International Education Conference 2014

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Drivers of international higher education

Sustainable growth in an international student market is dependent on numerous factors

Demographics

Economics

Changes in political conditions

Growth in education provision

Digital technology

Cultural impact

Global workforce demands/skills gaps

Language

9

EDUCATION

INTELLIGENCE

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Drivers of international student mobility:

Demographics

There exists a positive correlation

between university aged populations

and tertiary enrolments

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World population prospects, the 2012 Revision

11

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INTELLIGENCE

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Population aged 15-24, by major regions

12

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America

Northern America

Oceania

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Demographic trends to 2024:

Tertiary age (18-22) population growth

13

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Diverging demographic trends across origin markets

14

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Rural and urban population forecast

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There exists a positive relationship between household wealth (GDP per capita) and tertiary

enrolments

Drivers of international student mobility:

Economics

16

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Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP)

All countries

ALGERIA

ARMENIA

AUSTRALIA

AUSTRIA

AZERBAIJAN

BELARUS BELGIUM

BENIN

BULGARIA

BURKINA FASOBURUNDI

CAMBODIA

CAMEROONCAPE VERDE

CHINA

COLOMBIA

CROATIA

CUBA

CZECH REPUBLIC

DENMARK

EL SALVADOR

ESTONIA

ETHIOPIA

FINLAND

FRANCE

GEORGIA

GHANA

GREECE

GUATEMALA

GUINEA

GUYANA

HUNGARY ICELAND

INDIA

INDONESIA

IRELANDISRAELITALYJAPAN

JORDANKAZAKHSTAN

LATVIA

LEBANON

LESOTHO

LITHUANIA

MADAGASCAR

MAURITIUS

MEXICO

MOROCCO

NAMIBIA

NETHERLANDSNEW ZEALAND NORWAY

PAKISTAN

PANAMAPERU

PHILIPPINES

POLANDPORTUGALROMANIA

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

SLOVAKIA

SLOVENIA

SOUTH AFRICA

SPAIN

SWAZILAND

SWEDEN

SWITZERLAND

TAJIKISTAN

THAILAND

TUNISIATURKEY

UKRAINEUNITED KINGDOM

UNITED STATES

URUGUAY

UZBEKISTAN

VENEZUELA

YEMEN

y = 0.80x - 3.88

R2 = 0.77

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0

log(GDP per capita, PPP $)

log(e

nro

lmen

t ra

te)

A

l

l

v

EDUCATION

INTELLIGENCE

© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission

Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP)

Developed countries

AUSTRALIA

AUSTRIA

BELGIUM

CZECH REPUBLIC

DENMARK

ESTONIA

FINLAND

FRANCE

GREECE

HUNGARY ICELAND

IRELANDISRAEL

ITALY

JAPAN

LATVIA

NETHERLANDS

NEW ZEALAND NORWAY

POLAND

PORTUGAL

RUSSIAN FEDERATION

SLOVENIA

SPAIN

SWEDEN

SWITZERLAND

UNITED KINGDOM

UNITED STATES

y = -0.00x + 4.21

R2 = 0.00

3

4

5

2.2 2.3 2.4

log(GDP per capita, PPP $)

log(e

nro

lmen

t ra

te)

Emerging markets

ALGERIA

ARMENIA

AZERBAIJAN

BELARUS

BENIN

BULGARIA

BURKINA FASOBURUNDI

CAMBODIA

CAMEROONCAPE VERDE

CHINA

COLOMBIA

CUBA

EL SALVADOR

ETHIOPIA

GEORGIA

GHANA

GUATEMALA

GUINEA

GUYANAINDIA

INDONESIA

JORDAN

KAZAKHSTANLEBANON

LESOTHOMADAGASCAR

MAURITIUS

MEXICO

MOROCCO

NAMIBIAPAKISTAN

PANAMAPERU

PHILIPPINES

ROMANIA

SOUTH AFRICA

SWAZILAND

TAJIKISTAN

THAILAND

TUNISIATURKEY

UKRAINE

URUGUAY

UZBEKISTAN

VENEZUELA

YEMEN

y = 7.60x - 13.24

R2 = 0.68

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3

log(GDP per capita, PPP $)

log(e

nro

lmen

t ra

te)

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INTELLIGENCE

© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission

Economic drivers: GDP per capita (PPP)

y = 0.1693ln(x) - 1.1472R² = 0.5378

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

Gro

ss t

ert

iary

en

rolm

en

t ra

tio

Nominal PPP US$ GDP per capita

PPP GDP per capita and tertiary enrolment ratio (2009)

Source: Haver Analytics, Oxford Economics, UNESCO

South Korea

UAE

Ukraine

Singapore

Botswana

Trinidad & Tobago

USGreece

Mexico & Malaysia

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World GDP growth (2002-2024)

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Economics: GDP per capita growth (2013-2024)

21

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INTELLIGENCE

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Schedule Student decision-making

Drivers of international higher education mobility

Demographics

Economics

Domestic tertiary enrolments

International postgraduate forecasts

Outbound mobility

Inbound mobility

Postgraduate flows to Australia

10/10/2014

Australian International Education Conference 2014

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EDUCATION

INTELLIGENCE

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Top tertiary enrolments (2012)

China

India

United States

Russia

Top tertiary enrolments (2024)

India

China

United States

Indonesia

Tertiary enrolment forecast

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Forecasted tertiary enrolments to 2024

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Annual average growth in tertiary enrolments

Nigeria 6.4%

Indonesia 5.3%

Pakistan 5.2%

India 4.5%

Saudi Arabia 3.4%

Mexico 2.6%

Turkey 1.3%

Malaysia 1.3%

Spain 1.3%

France 1.3%

China 1.1%

United States 0.6%

Vietnam 0.4%

Canada 0.1%

Italy -0.2%

Thailand -0.2%

Iran -0.4%

Germany -0.6%

Greece -0.9%

Russian Federation -1.7%

Poland -2.1%

Republic of Korea -2.4%

Taiwan -2.5%

EDUCATION

INTELLIGENCE

© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission

Schedule Student decision-making

Drivers of international higher education mobility

Demographics

Economics

Domestic tertiary enrolments

International postgraduate forecasts

Outbound mobility

Inbound mobility

Postgraduate flows to Australia

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Global student mobility, 2014

27

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INTELLIGENCE

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Postgraduate student mobility trends to

2024

28

Research aim:

Forecast the landscape

for postgraduate

mobility to 2024 by

studying demographic

and economic drivers

of demand

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Model market coverage

29

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Highest number of outbound postgraduates

2012

China

India

Korea

Saudi Arabia

United States

Taiwan

Canada

Iran

France

Nigeria

2024 China

India

Nigeria

Saudi Arabia

United States

Iran

Korea

Pakistan

Indonesia

Vietnam

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Outbound postgraduates to selected destinations

31

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China and India growth index (2012 = 100)

32

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Forecasted inbound postgraduate flows to 2024

33

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Annual average change in inbound postgraduates

Change (% annual ave.) 2007 - 2012

Change (% annual ave.) 2012 - 2024

Australia 2.4% 4.1%

Canada 6.8% 4.1%

United States 2.9% 4.0%

Germany 3.4% 3.6%

United Kingdom 4.1% 3.5%

Japan 5.4% 1.6%

34

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Inbound PG flows attributable to China and India

35

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INTELLIGENCE

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Top five

bilateral

flows to

2024

36

Seven of the

top ten

largest

bilateral

flows will be

from China

or India to

host

destinations

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INTELLIGENCE

© 2011 British Council. All rights reserved. This document may not be amended, copied or distributed without express written permission

Schedule Student decision-making

Drivers of international higher education mobility

Demographics

Economics

Domestic tertiary enrolments

International postgraduate forecasts

Outbound mobility

Inbound mobility

Postgraduate flows to Australia

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Postgraduate flows to Australia to 2024

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Key findings of postgraduate research

The US will continue to be the largest postgraduate host destination to 2024, though Canada and Australia will grow at a quicker pace

India and China to fuel growth in outbound postgraduates

Particular destination markets will be heavily dependent on these China and India

Significant postgraduate growth in other key nations: Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam

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INTELLIGENCE

All generalisations are false, including this one. Alexander Chase, journalist

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Thank you!

Download Postgraduate student mobility trends to

2024 for free on our website:

https://ei.britishcouncil.org

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