Trends in International and Regional Passenger

Travel

Inter-Regional Travel and Local Development

Alan E. Pisarski

What we are going to talk about

• Some definitions of Tourism and Tourists

• World Tourism Trends

• World Travel and the US

• US Domestic Tourism

• Future Growth Factors

• Impacts

What is a tourist?

UN/WTO definition

persons

traveling outside their usual environment

for

less than a year

for

activities not remunerated at the destination

Say that again!

• Outside usual environment - not local

• Less than one year - not an immigrant

• Unremunerated - not a traveling worker

• Think of link to balance of Payments

Tourists are a special case of Travelers

• Excludes Refugees, Nomads, Diplomats

• Tourists are overnight visitors

• Visitors include overnight and same-day visitors

• We are actually interested in Visitors

WORLD TOURISM IS BIG!

• Biggest Industry in the World? Probably!

• Tremendous Growth > 4%/year

2020 International Visitors - 1.6 Billion

2020 International Receipts - $2 Trillion

• YET TRIVIAL NEXT TO DOMESTIC

World Trends - WTO millions of international visitors

1995 2000 2010 2020

America 111 131 195 285E. Asia 81 104 231 438Europe 334 386 527 717Mid E. 13 19 37 69Africa 20 26 46 75

World 564 672 1047 1602

US is dominant destination in World

• # 1 in Foreign receipts, 16% of world

• # 2 or 3 in Number of Visitors

• France and Spain are other Leaders

• Approaching 50 million Visitors

• Approaching $100 billion in Receipts

Long Term US Visitor Trends

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Mill

ion

s o

f V

isit

ors

OVERSEAS

CANADA

MEXICO

Big Payoffs from Foreign Visitors

• Trade surplus since ‘89; peaked at $26 b in ‘96

• Largest service export, $91 billion in revenues ‘98

• Ahead of agriculture, chemicals and vehicles

• 15.4 nights and $1569 in spending per overseas visitor (think $100/day)

Balance of Payments Trends

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

TRAVEL RECEIPTS

TRANSPORT RECEIPTS

TRAVEL PAYMENTS

TRANSPORT PAYMENTS

1998 VISITOR SHARES

Canada28%

Mexico20%

Brazil2%

All Others24%

Japan11%

United Kingdom

9%

France2%

Germany4%

Overseas visitor use our transport system

% USE*TAXI 41PRIVATE AUTO 27RENTED AUTO 36AIRLINE 28URBAN TRANSIT 20INTERCITY BUS 11INTERCITY RAIL 8* Multiple selections

$200 per visitor source: TI

TRIP PURPOSES COMPARED

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Int'l domestic

Study

Conf/Conv

VFR

Leisure

Business

ATS BASIC DATA-BTS

RESIDENTS 1977 1995 %CHG% TRAVELING HH 72 80 10.8TRIPS/HH 4.1 5.5 34.1TRIPS/TRAVELING HH 5.7 6.9 21.1

TRIPS/CAP 2.4 4 66.7TRIPS/TRAVELER 4 4.8 20MILES PER TRAVELER 2836 3943 39MILES PER TRIP 709 827 16.6

THE MODES HAVE DIFFERENT PURPOSES

0%10%

20%30%

40%50%60%

70%80%

90%100%

AL

L

PU

V

AIR

BU

S

CH

AR

TE

R

TR

AIN

BUSINESS VISIT FRIENDS/ RELATIVES

LEISURE TRAVEL PERSONAL BUSINESS

Business is a different modal world

PRIVATE VEHICLE USE BY DISTANCE FOR MAIN PURPOSES

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

<THAN 300 300-495 500-999 10000-1999 20000+

BUSINESS

VFR

LEISURE

PERSONAL BUSINESS

MODES HAVE DIFFERENT DISTANCE ROLES

MEANS OF TRANSPORT BY ROUND TRIP DISTANCE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

LE

SS

TH

AN

300

MIL

ES

300-

499

MIL

ES

500-

999

MIL

ES

1,00

0-1,

999

MIL

ES

2,00

0P

LU

SM

ILE

S

OTHER

AIR

PERSONALVEHICLE

DISTANCES DON’T VARY MUCH BY PURPOSE

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Business

VFR Leisure PB

1000+

500 to 999

250 to 499

100 to 249

TRIPS & DISTANCE

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

%TRIPS

%MILES

2,000 PLUS MILES

1,000-1,999 MILES

500-999 MILES

300-499 MILES

LESS THAN 300 MILES

PERCENT TRIPS VS PERCENT MILES

BY DISTANCE RANGE

WOMEN STILL TRAVEL LESS

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2B

usin

ess

Visi

tFr

/Rel

s

Leis

ure

Per

s.

Bus

. All

m/f tripratio

m/fmiles ratio

Rates of Growth Approx Equal at About 60% but,Black, Hispanic Rate of 1995 Still Below

White Rate of 1997

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

1977 1995

BLACKHISPANIC

WHITE

THE OLDER FOLKS LEADTRIPS/CAPITA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

< 18 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

1977 1995

Revenue per psgr mile trends(cents/psgr mile)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

AIR COACH ICTY RAIL ICTY BUS

WHERE IS THE GROWTH IN PASSENGER MILES?

(Billions of Psgr miles)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

AIR RAIL BUS

Growth in long distance travel and related factors - BTS

1977-1995

1019

33 34 38

116

0

20

40

60

80

100

120H

WY

MIL

ES

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

INC

OM

E

HO

US

EH

OL

DS

EM

PL

OY

ME

NT

TR

AV

EL

%

A Sense of Scale

• Int’l: 15 days (est) x 50 million

• Domestic: 4 trips x 4.3 days x 275 million

• Local: 4 trips x 365 days x 275 million

CALIFORNIA ANNUAL VISITOR FLOWS - 95BTS

CALIFORNIA

38 Million@ 5.1 days193vdays

65 Million@ 3.1 days

24 Million@ 7.2 days173 days

OVERSEAS VISITORS MAIN POINTS OF ENTRY

N.Y.19%

MIAMI14%

L.A.11%HON

9%

ALL OTH27%

CHI5%

ORLANDO5%

GUAM5%

SANFRAN5%

California’s Tourism Role

• 20th in per capita travel

• #1 in intrastate travel

• #1 in outbound travel

• #2 in inbound travel

• #39 in thru travel

• # 1 in total domestic long distance travel

• #2 in visits by Overseas visitors

What’s next?

• Major world destination; visitors & revs.

• High travel propensity industrial structure

• Highly dispersed population

• High travel propensity population – age– discretionary income & time– linkages to world