transportation planning applications conference daytona, beach, fl

Southern California Association of Governments Resolving Regional Challenges

Transportation Planning Applications Conference Daytona, Beach, FL

Keith L. Killough, AICP – Director, Information Services Southern California Association of Governments

Value Analysis of Truck Toll Lanes in Southern California



Presentation OverviewPresentation Overview

• Background & Problem Statement

• Reliability Methodology

• Methodology Application

• Investment Assessment

• Conclusions


LA/Long Beach Port Complex is Largest in the U.S. and 5th in the World

LA/Long Beach Port Complex is Largest in the U.S. and 5th in the World


Ports handle one third of all container traffic in U.S. and nearly two-thirds of containers from Asia

Over 70% of imports pass through to other markets

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

% SCAG Jobs

Leisure and

Hosp.

9.6

Other Services

3.5

Educ. & Health

Services

10.6

Constr.

4.8

Prof. & Bus.

Services

14.1

Manf.

12.1

Logis-tics

8.1

Gov’t.

14.9

Financial Activities

7.5

Motion Picture

1.7

1 out of 12 jobs in 2003

The Logistics Industry Provides Jobs to 8% of Southern Californians

The Logistics Industry Provides Jobs to 8% of Southern Californians


Average weekly pay for all industries is $749

0$

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1000

$1200

$1400

$1600

$ Weekly Pay

Leisure and

Hospitality

$400

Other Services

$413

Educ. & Health

Services

$718

Constr.

$777

Prof. & Bus.

Services

$811

Manf.

$843

Logistics

$847

Gov’t.

$866

Financial Activities

$1194

Motion Picture

$1353

1 of highest paying

And Those Jobs Pay WellAnd Those Jobs Pay Well


Challenge: CongestionGoods movement is a major contributor to traffic

congestion and a bottleneck to future growth.

Challenge: CongestionGoods movement is a major contributor to traffic

congestion and a bottleneck to future growth.

I-710 Typical DayI-710 During 2002 Port Lockout


9.5 13.2

18.3

36.0

44.7 RevisedEstimate

1999 2005 2010 2020 2030

6.99.0

12.3

23.4

Original Estimate

In Million TEU’s (20’ Equivalent Units)

Source: POLA, POLB

Total LA/Long Beach Container GrowthProjected to Triple in 25 Years

Total LA/Long Beach Container GrowthProjected to Triple in 25 Years

25.2


Congestion Jeopardizes Our Economic Advantage

Congestion Jeopardizes Our Economic Advantage

Without improvements, nothing will be moving

By 2025

Projected to nearlydouble


Associated Pollution Has Created a Health Crisis

Associated Pollution Has Created a Health Crisis

• The region continues to have the worst air quality in the U.S.

•Particulate emissions from ships, locomotives & planes from the ports are projected to increase


Estimated Risk of Cancer from Airborne Toxics: Excluding Diesel

Estimated Risk of Cancer from Airborne Toxics: Excluding Diesel

Source: SCAQMD, Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study II, March 2000

Cancersper million

100-200

200-300

300-400

400-600

600-800


Source: SCAQMD, Multiple Air Toxics Exposure Study II, March 2000

Cancers per million

200-300

300- 400

400-600

600-800

800-1000

1000-1200 Over1200

Estimated Risk of Cancer from Airborne Toxics: Including Diesel

Estimated Risk of Cancer from Airborne Toxics: Including Diesel


Source: South Coast Air Quality Management District & California Air Resources Board 2007

52% of national exposure to

PM2.5 in excess of the federal

standard occurs in the South

Coast Air Basin

Diesel Particulates Are at the Root of the Problem

Diesel Particulates Are at the Root of the Problem

5,400 annual cases of

premature death are attributable to

this exposure


Heavy Duty Diesel Truck Particulate Speed Correction Factors

Heavy Duty Diesel Truck Particulate Speed Correction Factors

Source: California Air Resources Board, 2007 EMFAC Model


Not Nearly Enough Federal and State Funds to Fix the ProblemsNot Nearly Enough Federal and State Funds to Fix the Problems

• Dramatic growth in traffic is running head-long into limited transportation funding and high infrastructure improvement costs.


Does investment required to make transportation

infrastructure improvements & employ clean air strategies make

business sense?

Does investment required to make transportation

infrastructure improvements & employ clean air strategies make

business sense?


Two Productivity GainsTwo Productivity Gains

• Shippers’ inventory savings

• Transporters’ efficiency gains


Carrying Less Inventory Saves MoneyCarrying Less Inventory Saves Money

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratio, 1985-2004

35% Less Inventory

U.S. Inventory to Sales Ratios: 1985 - 2004


Key Study Finding:Shippers are more sensitive to congestion (delay)

than to the cost of transportation

Port & Modal Elasticity StudyPort & Modal Elasticity Study

Study Conducted by Leachman and Associates LLC - Sept. 2005


“Just-In-Time” Savings“Just-In-Time” Savings

The trans-loading of weekly shipments

from Asia affords large, nation-wide

retailers an 18-20% reduction in their total

pipeline plus safety stock inventory

compared to direct shipping from Asia.

Assuming a 6% average error in nationwide one-week-ahead sales forecasts

Leachman & Associates LLC


Consolidated Shipping Time SavingsConsolidated Shipping Time Savings

ORDER

Nation-wide order placed with Asian

Factory

75 - 100DAYS OUT:

Depart Destination

Ports

5 - 9

Retail Stores

Arrive at Destinations

1- 9

Fewer ships to select

Trans-Loading Ports

25 - 37

Allocated Only6 - 18 Days Out

Average of one month advantage

Goods can be allocated just before vessel

arrives



“Just-In-Time” Savings“Just-In-Time” Savings

The savings amount to over

$1 Billion annually on inventory

interest alone.



Reliability MethodologyReliability Methodology


The Value of TimeThe Value of Time

$25 to $200 per hour depending on cargo

Trucking Industry Value of

time

FHWA Freight Management and Operations:

Measuring Travel Time in Freight-Significant Corridors www.ops.dot.gov/freight/time.htm


Reliability Assessment Definitions

Reliability Assessment Definitions

• Travel Time Index: Ratio of the average travel time to the uncongested travel time.

• Planning Time Index: 95th percentile of the Travel Time

Index. Extra time most travelers include when planning peak period trips.

• Buffer Time Index: The extra time (buffer) needed to ensureon-time arrival for most trips.


% more time

Tim

e o

f D

ay (

no

n-h

oli

day

wee

kday

s)

9 PM

5 AM6 AM7 AM

12 PM1 PM

5 PM6 PM7 PM

8 AM9 AM

10 AM11 AM

2 PM3 PM4 PM

8 PM

10 PM

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Buffer Time to ensure on-time arrival for most trips

Travel Time

Mobility Monitoring Program Texas Transportation Institute. FHA

Planning Time in 2030 Index by Time-of-Day

Planning Time in 2030 Index by Time-of-Day


Travel Time IndexTravel Time Index

Travel Time Index

Freeway Travel Rate

Freeway Free-flow

Rate

xFreeway

Peak Period VMT

+

Principal Arterial Street Travel Rate

Principal Arterial Street Free-flow

Rate

Principal Arterial

Street Peak Period VMT

Freeway Peak Period VMT + Principal Arterial Street

Peak Period VMT

x

Buffer Time IndexBuffer Time Index

Buffer Time Index

Average Travel Rate

(in minutes per mile)

95th Percentile Travel Rate

(in minutes per mile)

-

Average Travel Rate(in minutes per mile)

x 100%Weighted

Average of All

Sections (using VMT)


Caltrans PeMS Sensor LocationsCaltrans PeMS Sensor Locations


SCAG Travel Time ReliabilityA.M. Peak

SCAG Travel Time ReliabilityA.M. PeakMorning Peak Period (6a - 9a)

Buffer Time Index = 1.3178Ln(Travel Time Index) + 0.0972

R2 = 0.6986

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0

Travel Time Index (Congestion Level)

Bu

ffer

Tim

e In

dex

(R

elia

bil

ity)


SCAG Travel Time Reliability Mid-day

SCAG Travel Time Reliability Mid-day

Midday Period (9a - 4p)

Buffer Time Index = 2.162Ln(Travel Time Index) + 0.0953

R2 = 0.6304

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7

Travel Time Index (Congestion Level)

Bu

ffer

Tim

e In

dex

(R

elia

bil

ity)


Methodology ApplicationMethodology Application


The investments and their price tags

The investments and their price tags


Dedicated Truck LanesDedicated Truck Lanes

I - 71018.0

miles

East/West

37.8 miles

I - 1586.0

miles

2 Truck Lanes inEach Direction


Separated from Car LanesSeparated from Car Lanes

Dedicated Right-of-Ways or Elevated Roadway


The CostThe Cost

Dedicated Truck Lanes

Additional Rail Tracks

$16.5

In Billions

$3.4

Lanes/Tracks Only

Other Operational

Improvements TOTAL

$3.5

$2.6

$20.0

$6.0

TOTAL $26.0

TOTAL with $10B Environmental Mitigation $36.0


Methodology ApplicationMethodology Application

• Year 2030 Planning Design Year

• SCAG Regional Travel Simulation Model Analysis– No Project Alternative

– Truck Toll Lane Alternative: 2 lanes each direction

• Toll Cost = $0.86/mile

• I-710 Long Beach Freeway

• SR 60 Pomona Freeway

• I-15 (Ontario to Victorville)

• Compare toll costs to travel time & reliability savings based on trucking industry value-of-time


The Public/Private SolutionThe Public/Private Solution

Container Fees & Tolls to

USEthe facilities

AFTERthey are built

Tax-ExemptBonds and Tax Credit Financing

to

BUILDthe facilities


What are speed and reliability worth to

users of the system?

What are speed and reliability worth to

users of the system?


Travel Time In the Year 2030Travel Time In the Year 2030AM Peak Travel Planning Time in Hours

Hours:

LA Business District

Ontario Victorville

2.0 4.7 7.6

Hours: .5 1.5 4.8

With Truck LanesWith Truck Lanes


Truckway vs No Project Speed Changes on Auto Traffic LanesTruckway vs No Project Speed Changes on Auto Traffic Lanes

Speed Changes


Cash Value of Time Savingswith Truck Lanes

Cash Value of Time Savingswith Truck Lanes

AM Peak Travel @$73 per hour

Value:

LA Business District

Ontario Victorville

$103 $233 $345

Extra Trip

Potential 3.4 3.1 2.3


If truckers paid an $.86/mile toll to use the truckways, what would

be the ROI?

If truckers paid an $.86/mile toll to use the truckways, what would

be the ROI?


Return on Investment at A.M. Peak Travel Times - 2030

Return on Investment at A.M. Peak Travel Times - 2030

WarehouseDistrict

Downtown ToFrom

Ontario ToFrom

Victorville ToFrom

Toll @ $.86/Mile

$17$17

$32$32

$64$64

Time Value

Savings

$86$101

$201$329

$281$336

Value @

$73/hr

$103$118

$233$361

$345$490

ROI Ratio

6:17:1

7:111:1

5:18:1


$1 Invested = $5 to $11 Return$1 Invested = $5 to $11 Return


PremisePremise1. Infrastructure improvements will

reduce transit time for shippers and improve efficiency and reliability.

2. Reliability has a real dollar value to shippers.

3. The value of the time saved will be significantly greater than the investment to achieve the time saved.


Two “What-If” ScenariosTwo “What-If” ScenariosAs-Is Scenario

Fees imposed but NOT used to provideregional congestion relief

Congestion Relief Scenario

Fees and/or tolls paid by users of newly constructed highway and rail systems that provide

regional congestion relief.

Study Conducted by Leachman and Associates LLC - Sept. 2005


Fees Imposed with NoInfrastructure Improvements

Fees Imposed with NoInfrastructure ImprovementsFEUs in

millions

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

200

4 A

nn

ua

l Vo

lum

e

$30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 450 480

Container Fee (per FEU) in dollars

Total Volume

Trans Loading Volume

Fairly inelastic until fees in the $180 range

are introduced

Much more inelastic than

direct shipping


Private Sector Investment inCongestion Relief

Private Sector Investment inCongestion ReliefFEUs in

millions

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

200

4 A

nn

ua

l Vo

lum

e Total Volume

$30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 450 480

Container Fee (per FEU) in dollars

Trans Loading Volume

Congestion relief makes ports more attractive

At $200, volume is only 4.3% below No Fee:No Improvement Scenario

Trans-load volume is even higher


Observations & ConsiderationsObservations & Considerations

• Travel time reliability can be more important to freight movement than the actual travel time

• Return on Investment ratios vary by facility & time of day

• A combination of truck toll fees & additional funds will likely be required to cover facility capital costs

• Additional options being explored:– Maglev Freight System

– Electrified rail & highway systems


ConclusionsConclusions

• Goods movement is critical to the economies of Southern California & the nation

• Goods movement particulate emissions contribute to the regional health crisis

• Speed & reliability enhancements benefit goods movement & reduce health impacts

• Reliability is measurable

• Reliability improvements will offset toll costs


Transportation Planning Applications Conference Daytona, Beach, FL

Keith L. Killough, AICP – Director, Information Services Southern California Association of Governments




Thank YouThank You

Comments and Questions?

transportation planning applications conference daytona, beach, fl

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