Transmission – A Brief History, and…What’s Next?

Jim MuntzMarch 20, 2013

U. S. Utilities … typical evolution of Transmission systems

1

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

Load Growth

Generation Additions

Central Utility Planning – “T”• Strong “in territory”• Weak at the “edges”• “Follows” load and generation

Booms …. and Busts…. Booms……. and Busts.. Booms…. and Busts

The Parallel Evolution of Generation

2

Low cost, but steadily increasing environmental concerns

Too much foreign dependence?

Cleaner, and indigenous … an evolving source, complete with it’s own set of “issues”

Energy independence … and Nuclear - “too cheap to meter” … Yankees in New England, Millstone, Browns Ferry, TMI, Chernobyl, and Fukushima

Deregulation and Free Markets arrive on the scene…

3

Generation fleets up for sale….resale….and then retirements

The rise of retail marketing/wholesale trading Sponsored by Enron

ISOs / RTOs … and transmission additions … with forces supporting … and opposing… and unknown

• Years of “under investment”• Congestion Relief• New Generation Interconnections• Reliability (Blackout was almost 10

years ago!)• Market efficiency

• EMF• “View Shed” impacts• Non-transmission alternatives (EE, DR, DSM, Conservation, etc.)• NIMBY!

And, KEEP the lights on, and If they go out, get the lights backon FAST! I need my i-phone charged!

FERC Order1000

Order 1000

“Layer on” a growing Environmental awareness….

4

Global Warming(or not…)

Solar and Wind• Intermittent• Need for balancing resources• Generally remote from load• Subsidies and cost?• Scalability?

RPS RGGI

• Conservation• Demand Side Management• Energy efficiency“The cheapest kW is the one not used”

And what about Hydro?

Where Do We Go From Here?

5

“Integrated Least Cost Planning”

(more proactive)

• Across an ISO/ Across ISO’s • Interregional planning – Interregional interests • Many options are considered• Analysis driven• “Winners and Losers”

Return to Smaller, ‘Central’ Areas?

• Devolve back…. toward states(?) …re-regulate? (!)• Or “groups of states” that can agree• More local solutions• Can this support real “markets”?

“PlodForward”

(more reactionary)

• Retirements of older fossil units, nuclear?• New Gas? New Pipelines? Fracking? (here?) • Renewables (at what cost? Tax breaks? )• Increasing cyber security concern • Order 1000 implementation • Hydro & Pumped Storage

The drivers for expansion or refurbishment are different than what the Transmissionsystem was designed for; free markets and public policy are driving in new directions,and reliability/security is increasingly important to customers and other stakeholders.