transitions: a roadmap to low - power memory (pdf) · transitions: a roadmap to low-power memory....
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2 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
A Look at HistoryLast three decades – PC driven
1980 1990 2000 2010
Mem
ory
Density
1981 IBM PC
16 kB base memory
1990 office standard
640 kB memory
2013 gaming laptop
32 GB
2000 gaming computer
4 GB memory
3 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
What drives the market now…next? The next 3 decades - ?
Source: ISH (iSuppli) for 2013
52%43%
32%
31%
13%
13%
13%
2009 2015
Memory Use by Market Segment
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A Look at the Present…FutureNew Applications, new systems…new challenges
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Shifting Memory RequirementsMobile changes the priority
Bandwidth Power Cost Capacity
Mobile ♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦♦ ♦♦
Consumer ♦ ♦♦ ♦♦♦ ♦
Networking ♦♦♦ ♦ ♦ ♦♦
PC/Server ♦♦♦ ♦ ♦♦ ♦♦♦
* Cadence assessments
Mobile shifts focus from DDR to LPDDR!
6 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
• LPDDR4 is more power efficient than LPDDR3 for certain tasks
• For Mobile applications, this is everything
Mobile and Low Power DDRLPDDR3 vs. LPDDR4
Power
Power
Time
Time
Active
Active
Standby
StandbyLPDDR4
LPDDR3
7 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Proof in Point Today’s Smartphones
Xaiomi Mi4
16G
Samsung
Galaxy S5
32G
Apple
iPhone 6
128G
Perf
orm
an
ce
2014 20152013
Apple iPhone 5
32G
9 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Not really
• JEDEC drives memory specifications
• Memory is a high volume manufacturing business– Driver1: Price – low cost and volume
– Driver 2: Need – power or performance
• What is the inflection point?– Price vs. need
– Chicken & Egg – low price first or volume demand first (cost)
Does JEDEC drive transitions?
10 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
The DDR Memory RoadmapMemory Specifications
SDRAM
DDR
DDR2
DDR3
LPDDR
DDR4
LPDDR2
LPDDR3
LPDDR4
Wide IO
Wide IO 2
HMC
HBM
GDDR2
GDDR3
GDDR4
GDDR5
1993 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20142012
11 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Technology or Price?– New technology hard to adopt
– High initial price limits adoption or transition
– Low initial volume keeps prices high
– The vicious cycle
• Breaking the cycle– Mobile could be the thing that breaks the cycle
– Need is great and the volumes high (quickly)
– This means that prices can drop quickly leading to faster adoption
– Economy of Scales
What drives Memory Adoption?Breaking the Cycle
12 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
• End Product Needs– Larger and higher resolution displays and cameras
– Bigger and faster applications
– Bragging rights
• Memory costs– Memory is traditionally driven by cost
– If the need is not there it is all about costs
– The lower the cost, the faster the adoption
What drives Memory Adoption?Need vs. Cost
Multi-core Processing Power
(1.5 GHz+)
New Content Consumption
User Experience
Larger Display (HD UHD)
Hi-speed Wireless (4G LTE, WiFi
13 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Screens are getting larger
• Smartphones going from 4 inch to 4.7 inch to 5.5 inch
• Tablets going from 7 inch to 8.0 inch to 10 inch
What drives the mobile need?Beyond Power: Density
Year Memory Density Memory Type
2009 256MB LPDDR
2010 512MB LPDDR
2011 1GB LPDDR2
2012 2GB LPDDR2
2013 2GB LPDDR3
2014 3GB LPDDR3
2015 4GB ? LPDDR3/4 ?
Flagship Smartphone Memory Density
2Gb LPDDRx
4Gb LPDDRx
6~8Gb LPDDRx
14 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
More Bandwidth in MobileHigher resolution and screen size
1
2.3
3.4
4.5
5.7
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
Resolution is getting higher
From 1280x720 to 3840x2160 and beyond
> size and resolution = > Memory
Inch
es
Screen size progression for smartphone and tablets
HD
1280x720
FHD
1920x1280
QXGA
2048x1536
WQXGA
2560x16006
QSXGA
2560x2048
UHD
3840x2160
Smartphones
Tablets
15 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
More Performance in MobileFrom 400 to over 3200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
400 400
800
1066 1066
1600
2133
3200
4266
LPDDR2
LPDDR3
LPDDR4
PC-DDR4 Bandwidth
Me
mo
ry S
pe
ed
in
Mb
ps
16 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Case Study: Apple iPhone and iPadVolume and ramp rates
Source: Macworld
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013
iPhone Unit Sales
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Q3 Q4 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013
iPad Unit Sales
8752 839814102
1623518647 20338
17073
37044
8700
35064
26028 26910
3270 41887331
4694
11123
47789
1543411798
17042
22860
924614036
Data from Macworld
17 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Case Study: Apple iPhoneApple iPhone volume and ramp rates!
Source: Macworld
A Game Changer:
5 Million phones in a weekend
20 Million phones in a month
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LPDDR transitions in Apple iPhone Models
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
iPhone2007
iPhone 3G2008
iPhone3GS2009
iPhone 42010
iPhone 4S2011
iPhone 52012
iPhone 5C2013
iPhone 5S2014
iPhone 62014
2015
iPhone Memory Size/Type
1 GB
LPDDR3
128MB
LPDDR
256MB
LPDDR
512MB
LPDDR2
1 GB
LPDDR2
?
Source: Wikipedia, 10/2014
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Case Study: Xiaomi SmartphoneRecord Shipment in 2014
Source: Xiaomi web site, 10/2014
20 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
WW smartphone shipments2009~2018
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mobile Volumes will impact
the Low-Power Memory Transition !
Units in M
illio
ns
Source: Wikipedia, Gartner, Statista, 2014
21 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
Smartphone shipments in China 2011~2013
1715
26
3336
45
62
70
78
87
95
91
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q1, 11 Q2,11 Q3, 11 Q4, 11 Q1, 12 Q2, 12 Q3, 12 Q4, 12 Q1, 13 Q2, 13 Q3, 13 Q4, 13
Units in Millions
Source: Wikipedia, Gartner, Statista, 2014
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LPDDR Exceed DDR in PerformanceMobile moves into PC space
LPDDR Performance is converging!
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LPDDR & DDR Price convergingLittle to No Premium for Low Power
1Q 2012 Pricing
− 4Gb LPDDR -> $6.80
− 4Gb DDR3L -> $4.20
− LP Premium = 62%
Mid 2013 Avg. Forecast
− 4Gb LPDDR2 -> $4.75
− 4Gb DDR3L -> $3.60
− LP Premium = 32%
Mid 2013 Avg. Forecast
− 4Gb LPDDR3 -> $6.40
− 4Gb DDR3L -> $3.60
− LP Premium = 78%
Source: JEDEC Mobile Forum 2013
Convergence
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014
LPDDR3 x32
LPDDR2 x32
DDR3L x16
DDR3L-RS x32
DDR3L-RS x16
4Gb Equivalent prices of DRAM Alternatives
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
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Mobile Market TransitionLow Power High B/W Memory
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
LPDDR LPDDR2 LPDDR3 LPDDR4 Wide IO
LPDDR Roadmap Transition is happening!
LPDDR2 LPDDR3LPDDR4
WideIO2
25 © 2014 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Factors Driving Transition– Lower power
– Greater bandwidth
– Higher volume/lower cost
• Transition is happening NOW!– From DDR to LPDDR
– From LPDDR3 to LPDDR4
The Low-Power Memory Roadmap TransitionSummary
DDR
LPDDR4
LPDDR3
LPDDR2